[News] Has Israel considered a loss to Hezbollah?

[Anti-Imperialist News]

 Has Israel considered a loss to Hezbollah?

Increasingly sophisticated Hezbollah operations against qualitative Israeli
targets have Tel Aviv flapping about a ‘war on Lebanon.’ But whichever way
one examines the equation – manpower, capabilities, defenses, alliances –
the Israeli state seems ill-prepared for this fight.

Ali Rizk <https://thecradle.co/authors/ali-rizk>

JUN 11, 2024 -
https://thecradle.co/articles/has-israel-considered-a-loss-to-hezbollah
(Photo Credit: The Cradle)

As the war in Gaza lags on, cross-border exchanges on the Lebanese–Israeli
front have intensified. Fighting between Hezbollah and the Israeli military
has taken a heavy toll on both sides. The Lebanese resistance movement has
lost
<https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/another-hezbollah-fighter-killed-in-border-clashes-with-israel/3230534>
over
300 fighters, with Israeli shelling resulting in the displacement
<https://www.thenationalnews.com/mena/lebanon/2024/03/14/israel-lebanon-war-border-civilians-evacuated/>
of
tens of thousands of Lebanese residents of the country’s southern villages.

Israel has not fared much better, with at least sixty thousand northern
settlers forced to flee
<https://apnews.com/article/israel-lebanon-hezbollah-evacuees-gaza-war-1841834d89af938a8445821567640aea>
their
homes. While the occupation army has confirmed the death of around
<https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/israeli-army-confirms-another-soldiers-death-in-hezbollah-attack/3214210>
a
dozen of its soldiers in the exchanges with Hezbollah, the real number is
estimated <https://thecradle.co/articles-id/24127> to be much higher.

In March, *The Cradle* gained intel that over 230 Israeli troops
<https://thecradle.co/articles-id/24127> had been killed in combat since 8
October 2023.

*The rising threat of a large-scale war*

While the northern conflict currently remains within the boundaries of
‘controlled escalation,’ the prospects of a full-blown war between
Hezbollah and Israel may be steadily increasing. Far-right members of the
Israeli government, who are key to keeping Prime Minister Benjamin
Netanyahu’s governing coalition intact, have become noticeably more vocal
<https://www.newarab.com/news/destroy-hezbollah-israeli-ministers-call-lebanon-invasion>
in
supporting escalation on the Lebanese front.

Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich has called
<https://www.lbcgroup.tv/news/lebanon-news/776315/smotrich-it-is-necessary-to-strike-the-lebanese-capital-so-it-focuses/en>
for
launching an attack on Beirut, describing it as “the capital of terrorism.”
Given these stances, it cannot be entirely dismissed that Netanyahu may opt
to escalate against Lebanon.

Indeed, recent statements by the Israeli prime minister suggest that some
form of wider escalation on the northern front may be in the making.

Speaking during a visit to the headquarters of the Israeli military’s
Northern Command, Netanyahu referred
<https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/netanyahu-on-northern-border-israel-has-detailed-important-even-surprising-plans-for-hezbollah/>
to
“surprising plans” being devised to deal with Hezbollah, aiming to “restore
security to the north and to restore residents safely to their homes”
without going into further detail.

Amid these developments, the Israeli military recently completed
<https://www.naharnet.com/stories/en/305113-israel-finishes-drill-for-increased-competence-on-lebanon-front>
a
drill that simulated a ground incursion into Lebanon.

A large-scale Israeli offensive on Lebanon in the near future would also be
consistent with earlier assessments
<https://edition.cnn.com/2024/02/29/politics/concern-rising-biden-officials-israel-lebanon-incursion/index.html>
made
by US officials, who, in late February, predicted a possible ground
incursion into Lebanon by the late spring or early summer.

*Hezbollah’s increasing capabilities*

Hezbollah’s challenge to Israel appears to be on the rise, reflecting a
failure of Tel Aviv’s current strategy of relying on precision surgical
strikes. According to the Israeli institute Alma
<https://israel-alma.org/2024/06/03/the-northern-arena-and-the-shiite-axis-weekly-review-of-events-and-key-data-may-27-june-2/>,
which monitors developments on the Lebanese–Israeli front, 325 cross-border
attacks were carried out by Hezbollah in May, the highest number of monthly
attacks on this front since 7 October.

The resistance movement’s operations have also become more sophisticated,
revealing capabilities it has introduced for the first time. Hezbollah
managed to destroy <https://thecradle.co/articles-id/24879> an advanced
surveillance balloon
<https://thecradle.co/articles/blind-and-deaf-how-israel-lost-the-north> used
to detect incoming attacks in an operation conducted via a kamikaze drone.

It has also upgraded its drone capabilities, recently launching a
twin-kamikaze drone attack
<https://www.jns.org/hezbollah-drone-kills-idf-soldier-in-northern-israel/> on
the northern town of Hurfeish and conducting its first-ever air raid
<https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/hezbollah-carries-out-first-arab-airstrike-on--israel--since>
through
an armed UAV equipped with S5 rockets. The operation targeted Israeli
soldiers in the settlement of Metula and was the first time in which an
Arab force had launched an airstrike on Israel.

Most recently, Hezbollah released footage
<https://thecradle.co/articles-id/25297> on 6 June showing a guided missile
attack on an Iron Dome platform in Israel’s Ramot Naftali barracks in the
Galilee.

*What to expect in a full-scale war*

The increased sophistication of Hezbollah’s operations can also be seen as
fueling Tel Aviv’s urgency to take decisive action against the resistance
group. This was expressed by former Israeli war cabinet minister Benny
Gantz, who described <https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-798144> the
Lebanese front as the most significant and pressing operative front in the
current conflict, warning that the “moment of truth” was now close.

However, what the Lebanese movement has demonstrated since 7 October also
serves as a warning of what awaits the occupation state if an all-out war
were to erupt.

The Israeli military is expected to employ methods similar to 2006 in that
it would carry out destructive air raids on ‘Hezbollah strongholds’ in
southern Lebanon, Beirut, and the Bekaa region.

Speaking to *The Cradle*, retired Lebanese Brigadier General Elias
Farhat explains:

There is no such thing as a limited full-scale war. A full-scale war will
have to include all of Hezbollah’s strongholds.

However, any Israeli onslaught on par or exceeding what happened in 2006 is
almost certainly going to be met, this time, with a much harsher response
from Hezbollah.

The Lebanese movement has amassed
<https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/security-aviation/2023-10-23/ty-article-magazine/150-000-rockets-and-missiles-the-weapons-israel-would-encounter-in-a-war-with-hezbollah/0000018b-573d-d2b2-addf-777df6210000>
a
far larger rocket and missile arsenal, with estimates pointing to over
150,000 of these weapons now in its possession. Given this military
build-up, Hezbollah is widely recognized
<https://www.csis.org/analysis/hezbollahs-missiles-and-rockets> today as
the world’s heaviest armed non-state actor.

Perhaps even more importantly, its arsenal includes precision
<https://www.inss.org.il/social_media/precision-missiles-uavs-and-tens-of-thousands-of-fighters-hezbollahs-order-of-battle/>
missiles
such as the Fateh 110, enabling it to aim at strategic Israeli
installations that could cause immense damage. Against this backdrop,
Israeli experts have warned
<https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2024-02-22/ty-article-magazine/.premium/mad-in-lebanon-are-we-on-our-way-to-mutual-assured-destruction/0000018d-d06d-d3b8-af9f-dbeda6b60000>
of
a MAD (Mutually Assured Destruction) scenario in the event of a full-scale
war with Hezbollah.

It is also possible the Lebanese movement possesses military capabilities
that could undermine Israel’s air power advantage. The group has already
demonstrated its air defense capability against Israeli drones, having
succeeded
<https://apnews.com/article/lebanon-israel-drone-hezbollah-8a1b0816f45eb595e784bb27c8cdc149>
in
shooting down several ‘Hermes’ UAVs in the current round of hostilities.

The bigger danger to Israel, however, would be Hezbollah’s possession of
air defenses capable of shooting down not only drones but Israeli warplanes
<https://www.jpost.com/israel-hamas-war/article-803838>. Given the
strengthening of military ties between Russia and Iran, the possibility of
Hezbollah accessing Moscow’s enhanced anti-aircraft technology is
increased.

The resistance movement has already announced
<https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/hezbollah-fires-ad-missiles-at-iof-warplanes--forces-them-to>
that
it launched surface-to-air missiles at Israeli warplanes that had broken
the sound barrier and had hence forced the aircraft to retreat.

This marks the first development of its kind in the history of warfare
between Hezbollah and Israel and could merely be a warning shot for what
could transpire in the event of an all-out war.

That Hezbollah would unveil such weapons in a full-scale conflict is
consistent with its strategy of saving its best for such confrontations. In
2006, it surprised
<https://www.timesofisrael.com/new-hezbollah-footage-purports-to-show-2006-strike-on-israeli-navy-ship/>
the
Israeli military by striking a warship in a missile attack.

Israel would also likely face superior offensive ground operations in a
full-scale war with Hezbollah. The Lebanese movement gained valuable
experience in such operations while fighting
<https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Hezbollah_Sullivan_FINAL.pdf>
extremist
groups in Syria.

As Hussein Ibish of the Arab Gulf States Institute recounts to *The Cradle*:

“The combination of Hezbollah ground fighters and Russian air and signals
intelligence dominance was the ‘A-Team’ on behalf of the Assad [government]
in the Syrian war.”

Given this experience and its ability to launch airstrikes via UAVs,
Hezbollah likely retains the capacity to launch offensive infantry
operations – importantly, with air cover.

*Manpower and tactical advantages*

Hezbollah will also likely enjoy an advantage in terms of reliable, tested,
and highly motivated manpower. Due to its close ties with allied resistance
factions in Iraq and Yemen, fighters from these countries are likely to
come to Hezbollah’s aid in a full-scale conflict with Israel.

The Lebanese movement’s Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah alluded to this
factor in a 2017 speech <https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN19E1X5/>.
Israel, by contrast, appears to be suffering from a shortage of manpower
<https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/israeli-military-demands-14-500-new-recruits--situation--not>
in
its military ranks, not to mention tanking troop and commander morale
<https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/israeli-troops-morale-worsens-amid-commands-refusal-of-cease>,
highlighted on Sunday by yet another high-level military resignation
<https://www.timesofisrael.com/i-failed-in-my-lifes-mission-gaza-division-head-announces-resignation-over-oct-7/>,
this time Gaza Division Commander Brigadier-General Avi Rosenfeld.

Israeli defenses are also unlikely to succeed when facing large barrages of
Hezbollah missiles and drones. Unlike Iran’s retaliatory attack
<https://thecradle.co/articles-id/24711> on 13 April, where the US and
allies shot down a large fraction of the incoming drones and missiles,
similar-style attacks launched by Hezbollah would be far more difficult to
deal with.

The closer geographical distance means much less time to intercept and
shoot down such attacks. Hezbollah, which relies heavily on the element of
surprise in its military tactics, will also certainly not telegraph its
attacks beforehand as Iran did. As a result, Israel would likely remain
exposed to immense attacks through surface-to-surface missiles, kamikaze
drones, and airstrikes via UAVs.

Moreover, the Lebanese resistance has spent many months tirelessly
disabling Israel’s “eyes and ears”
<https://thecradle.co/articles/blind-and-deaf-how-israel-lost-the-north> in
the north, reportedly destroying over 1,650 pieces of intelligence,
surveillance, and target acquisition (ISR) equipment since the conflict’s
onset.

Israel is increasingly operating blindly in that vital northern theater,
allowing Hezbollah to repeatedly and successfully strike at qualitative
targets, penetrate more deeply into the occupation state, and employ more
advanced weaponry.

*The US response*

While it is likely that the US will rush to defend its Israeli ally, the
bigger question is how far it is willing to go. As indicated above,
defensive measures are unlikely to significantly undermine the severity of
Hezbollah’s cross-border missile and drone operations.

Judging from its approach following the Iranian attack on Israel,
Washington is unlikely to go beyond defensive support. Following Operation
True Promise, the White House reportedly
<https://edition.cnn.com/2024/04/14/politics/biden-netanyahu-israel-iran-response/index.html>
informed Tel
Aviv that it would have no part in any offensive action against Tehran,
effectively leaving its Israeli ally with little choice but to settle for a
far less proportionate response to Iran’s significant military operation.

Given how that situation unfolded, it would be a risky gamble for Israel to
pin its hopes on its US security guarantor assuming an offensive role in a
major war with Hezbollah. Tensions are also rising between the US and rival
superpowers, reinforcing this dynamic.

Speaking to *The Cradle*, Steven Simon, Senior Director for the Middle East
and North Africa in the US National Security Council during the Obama
administration, emphasizes that “a direct combat role beyond air defenses
(in a full-scale war between Hezbollah and Israel) is highly unlikely.”
This is especially the case, he adds, “given tensions with Russia and
China.”

Nawaf al-Musawi <https://x.com/TimmiB_/status/1799211347890114910>,
Hezbollah’s Resource and Border Affairs official and one of the movement’s
strategic thinkers, offers this prediction:

The Israeli occupation needs weapons from Washington for any war it wishes
to wage against Lebanon. After any war with Lebanon, the region will not be
the same as it was before. The next war with Israel will be the final war.
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