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<div class="gmail-inner-article-top"><h1 class="gmail-">Has Israel considered a loss to Hezbollah?</h1><p class="gmail-">Increasingly
sophisticated Hezbollah operations against qualitative Israeli targets
have Tel Aviv flapping about a ‘war on Lebanon.’ But whichever way one
examines the equation – manpower, capabilities, defenses, alliances –
the Israeli state seems ill-prepared for this fight.</p><div class="gmail-another-name"><p><a href="https://thecradle.co/authors/ali-rizk" style="color:rgb(164,4,4)">Ali Rizk</a></p></div><div class="gmail-another-name" style="margin-top:16px"><p><span>JUN 11, 2024 - </span><font size="1"><a href="https://thecradle.co/articles/has-israel-considered-a-loss-to-hezbollah">https://thecradle.co/articles/has-israel-considered-a-loss-to-hezbollah</a></font></p></div></div><div class="gmail-inner-article-img"><img src="http://thecradle-main.oss-eu-central-1.aliyuncs.com/public/articles/bf24ef9c-2808-11ef-bba2-00163e02c055.webp" alt="" width="394" height="186" style="margin-right: 0px;"><span>(Photo Credit: The Cradle)</span></div><div class="gmail-inner-article-content"><div class="gmail-row"><div class="gmail-col-md-8 gmail-col-sm-7"><div class="gmail-article-content"><span><p>As
the war in Gaza lags on, cross-border exchanges on the Lebanese–Israeli
front have intensified. Fighting between Hezbollah and the Israeli
military has taken a heavy toll on both sides. The Lebanese resistance
movement has <a href="https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/another-hezbollah-fighter-killed-in-border-clashes-with-israel/3230534">lost</a> over 300 fighters, with Israeli shelling resulting in the <a href="https://www.thenationalnews.com/mena/lebanon/2024/03/14/israel-lebanon-war-border-civilians-evacuated/">displacement</a> of tens of thousands of Lebanese residents of the country’s southern villages. </p><p>Israel has not fared much better, with at least sixty thousand northern settlers forced to <a href="https://apnews.com/article/israel-lebanon-hezbollah-evacuees-gaza-war-1841834d89af938a8445821567640aea">flee</a> their homes. While the occupation army has confirmed the death of <a href="https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/israeli-army-confirms-another-soldiers-death-in-hezbollah-attack/3214210">around</a> a dozen of its soldiers in the exchanges with Hezbollah, the real number is <a href="https://thecradle.co/articles-id/24127">estimated</a> to be much higher. </p><p>In March, <i>The Cradle</i> gained intel that over <a href="https://thecradle.co/articles-id/24127">230 Israeli troops</a> had been killed in combat since 8 October 2023.</p><p><strong>The rising threat of a large-scale war</strong></p><p>While
the northern conflict currently remains within the boundaries of
‘controlled escalation,’ the prospects of a full-blown war between
Hezbollah and Israel may be steadily increasing. Far-right members of
the Israeli government, who are key to keeping Prime Minister Benjamin
Netanyahu’s governing coalition intact, have become noticeably more <a href="https://www.newarab.com/news/destroy-hezbollah-israeli-ministers-call-lebanon-invasion">vocal</a> in supporting escalation on the Lebanese front. </p><p>Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich has <a href="https://www.lbcgroup.tv/news/lebanon-news/776315/smotrich-it-is-necessary-to-strike-the-lebanese-capital-so-it-focuses/en">called</a> for
launching an attack on Beirut, describing it as “the capital of
terrorism.” Given these stances, it cannot be entirely dismissed that
Netanyahu may opt to escalate against Lebanon. </p><p>Indeed, recent
statements by the Israeli prime minister suggest that some form of wider
escalation on the northern front may be in the making. </p><p>Speaking during a visit to the headquarters of the Israeli military’s Northern Command, Netanyahu <a href="https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/netanyahu-on-northern-border-israel-has-detailed-important-even-surprising-plans-for-hezbollah/">referred</a> to
“surprising plans” being devised to deal with Hezbollah, aiming to
“restore security to the north and to restore residents safely to their
homes” without going into further detail. </p><p>Amid these developments, the Israeli military recently <a href="https://www.naharnet.com/stories/en/305113-israel-finishes-drill-for-increased-competence-on-lebanon-front">completed</a> a drill that simulated a ground incursion into Lebanon. </p><p>A large-scale Israeli offensive on Lebanon in the near future would also be consistent with earlier <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2024/02/29/politics/concern-rising-biden-officials-israel-lebanon-incursion/index.html">assessments</a> made
by US officials, who, in late February, predicted a possible ground
incursion into Lebanon by the late spring or early summer.</p><p><strong>Hezbollah’s increasing capabilities</strong></p><p>Hezbollah’s
challenge to Israel appears to be on the rise, reflecting a failure of
Tel Aviv’s current strategy of relying on precision surgical strikes.
According to the Israeli institute <a href="https://israel-alma.org/2024/06/03/the-northern-arena-and-the-shiite-axis-weekly-review-of-events-and-key-data-may-27-june-2/">Alma</a>,
which monitors developments on the Lebanese–Israeli front, 325
cross-border attacks were carried out by Hezbollah in May, the highest
number of monthly attacks on this front since 7 October.</p><p>The
resistance movement’s operations have also become more sophisticated,
revealing capabilities it has introduced for the first time. Hezbollah
managed to <a href="https://thecradle.co/articles-id/24879">destroy</a> an <a href="https://thecradle.co/articles/blind-and-deaf-how-israel-lost-the-north">advanced surveillance balloon</a> used to detect incoming attacks in an operation conducted via a kamikaze drone.</p><p>It has also upgraded its drone capabilities, recently launching a twin-kamikaze drone <a href="https://www.jns.org/hezbollah-drone-kills-idf-soldier-in-northern-israel/">attack</a> on the northern town of Hurfeish and conducting its first-ever <a href="https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/hezbollah-carries-out-first-arab-airstrike-on--israel--since">air raid</a> through
an armed UAV equipped with S5 rockets. The operation targeted Israeli
soldiers in the settlement of Metula and was the first time in which an
Arab force had launched an airstrike on Israel.</p><p>Most recently, Hezbollah released <a href="https://thecradle.co/articles-id/25297">footage</a> on 6 June showing a guided missile attack on an Iron Dome platform in Israel’s Ramot Naftali barracks in the Galilee.</p><p><strong>What to expect in a full-scale war</strong></p><p>The
increased sophistication of Hezbollah’s operations can also be seen as
fueling Tel Aviv’s urgency to take decisive action against the
resistance group. This was expressed by former Israeli war cabinet
minister Benny Gantz, who <a href="https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-798144">described</a> the
Lebanese front as the most significant and pressing operative front in
the current conflict, warning that the “moment of truth” was now close. </p><p>However,
what the Lebanese movement has demonstrated since 7 October also serves
as a warning of what awaits the occupation state if an all-out war were
to erupt. </p><p>The Israeli military is expected to employ methods
similar to 2006 in that it would carry out destructive air raids on
‘Hezbollah strongholds’ in southern Lebanon, Beirut, and the Bekaa
region. </p><p>Speaking to <i>The Cradle</i>, retired Lebanese Brigadier General Elias Farhat explains: </p><blockquote><p>There is no such thing as a limited full-scale war. A full-scale war will have to include all of Hezbollah’s strongholds.</p></blockquote><p>However,
any Israeli onslaught on par or exceeding what happened in 2006 is
almost certainly going to be met, this time, with a much harsher
response from Hezbollah.</p><p>The Lebanese movement has <a href="https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/security-aviation/2023-10-23/ty-article-magazine/150-000-rockets-and-missiles-the-weapons-israel-would-encounter-in-a-war-with-hezbollah/0000018b-573d-d2b2-addf-777df6210000">amassed</a> a
far larger rocket and missile arsenal, with estimates pointing to over
150,000 of these weapons now in its possession. Given this military
build-up, Hezbollah is widely <a href="https://www.csis.org/analysis/hezbollahs-missiles-and-rockets">recognized</a> today as the world’s heaviest armed non-state actor. </p><p>Perhaps even more importantly, its arsenal includes <a href="https://www.inss.org.il/social_media/precision-missiles-uavs-and-tens-of-thousands-of-fighters-hezbollahs-order-of-battle/">precision</a> missiles
such as the Fateh 110, enabling it to aim at strategic Israeli
installations that could cause immense damage. Against this backdrop,
Israeli experts have <a href="https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2024-02-22/ty-article-magazine/.premium/mad-in-lebanon-are-we-on-our-way-to-mutual-assured-destruction/0000018d-d06d-d3b8-af9f-dbeda6b60000">warned</a> of a MAD (Mutually Assured Destruction) scenario in the event of a full-scale war with Hezbollah. </p><p>It
is also possible the Lebanese movement possesses military capabilities
that could undermine Israel’s air power advantage. The group has already
demonstrated its air defense capability against Israeli drones, having <a href="https://apnews.com/article/lebanon-israel-drone-hezbollah-8a1b0816f45eb595e784bb27c8cdc149">succeeded</a> in shooting down several ‘Hermes’ UAVs in the current round of hostilities.</p><p>The
bigger danger to Israel, however, would be Hezbollah’s possession of
air defenses capable of shooting down not only drones but <a href="https://www.jpost.com/israel-hamas-war/article-803838">Israeli warplanes</a>.
Given the strengthening of military ties between Russia and Iran, the
possibility of Hezbollah accessing Moscow’s enhanced anti-aircraft
technology is increased. </p><p>The resistance movement has already <a href="https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/hezbollah-fires-ad-missiles-at-iof-warplanes--forces-them-to">announced</a> that
it launched surface-to-air missiles at Israeli warplanes that had
broken the sound barrier and had hence forced the aircraft to retreat.</p><p>This
marks the first development of its kind in the history of warfare
between Hezbollah and Israel and could merely be a warning shot for what
could transpire in the event of an all-out war.</p><p>That Hezbollah
would unveil such weapons in a full-scale conflict is consistent with
its strategy of saving its best for such confrontations. In 2006, it <a href="https://www.timesofisrael.com/new-hezbollah-footage-purports-to-show-2006-strike-on-israeli-navy-ship/">surprised</a> the Israeli military by striking a warship in a missile attack. </p><p>Israel
would also likely face superior offensive ground operations in a
full-scale war with Hezbollah. The Lebanese movement gained valuable
experience in such operations while <a href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Hezbollah_Sullivan_FINAL.pdf">fighting</a> extremist groups in Syria.</p><p>As Hussein Ibish of the Arab Gulf States Institute recounts to <i>The Cradle</i>:</p><p>“The
combination of Hezbollah ground fighters and Russian air and signals
intelligence dominance was the ‘A-Team’ on behalf of the
Assad [government] in the Syrian war.”</p><p>Given this experience and
its ability to launch airstrikes via UAVs, Hezbollah likely retains the
capacity to launch offensive infantry operations – importantly, with air
cover.</p><p><strong>Manpower and tactical advantages</strong></p><p>Hezbollah
will also likely enjoy an advantage in terms of reliable, tested, and
highly motivated manpower. Due to its close ties with allied resistance
factions in Iraq and Yemen, fighters from these countries are likely to
come to Hezbollah’s aid in a full-scale conflict with Israel. </p><p>The Lebanese movement’s Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah alluded to this factor in a 2017 <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN19E1X5/">speech</a>. Israel, by contrast, appears to be suffering from a <a href="https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/israeli-military-demands-14-500-new-recruits--situation--not">shortage of manpower</a> in its military ranks, not to mention tanking troop and commander <a href="https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/israeli-troops-morale-worsens-amid-commands-refusal-of-cease">morale</a>, highlighted on Sunday by yet another <a href="https://www.timesofisrael.com/i-failed-in-my-lifes-mission-gaza-division-head-announces-resignation-over-oct-7/">high-level military resignation</a>, this time Gaza Division Commander Brigadier-General Avi Rosenfeld. </p><p>Israeli defenses are also unlikely to succeed when facing large barrages of Hezbollah missiles and drones. Unlike <a href="https://thecradle.co/articles-id/24711">Iran’s retaliatory attack</a> on
13 April, where the US and allies shot down a large fraction of the
incoming drones and missiles, similar-style attacks launched by
Hezbollah would be far more difficult to deal with.</p><p>The closer
geographical distance means much less time to intercept and shoot
down such attacks. Hezbollah, which relies heavily on the element of
surprise in its military tactics, will also certainly not telegraph its
attacks beforehand as Iran did. As a result, Israel would likely remain
exposed to immense attacks through surface-to-surface missiles, kamikaze
drones, and airstrikes via UAVs.</p><p>Moreover, the Lebanese resistance has spent many months tirelessly disabling <a href="https://thecradle.co/articles/blind-and-deaf-how-israel-lost-the-north">Israel’s “eyes and ears”</a> in
the north, reportedly destroying over 1,650 pieces of intelligence,
surveillance, and target acquisition (ISR) equipment since the
conflict’s onset.</p><p>Israel is increasingly operating blindly in that
vital northern theater, allowing Hezbollah to repeatedly and
successfully strike at qualitative targets, penetrate more deeply into
the occupation state, and employ more advanced weaponry.</p><p><strong>The US response</strong></p><p>While
it is likely that the US will rush to defend its Israeli ally, the
bigger question is how far it is willing to go. As indicated above,
defensive measures are unlikely to significantly undermine the severity
of Hezbollah’s cross-border missile and drone operations. </p><p>Judging
from its approach following the Iranian attack on Israel, Washington is
unlikely to go beyond defensive support. Following Operation True
Promise, the White House <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2024/04/14/politics/biden-netanyahu-israel-iran-response/index.html">reportedly</a> informed Tel
Aviv that it would have no part in any offensive action against Tehran,
effectively leaving its Israeli ally with little choice but to settle
for a far less proportionate response to Iran’s significant military
operation. </p><p>Given how that situation unfolded, it would be a risky
gamble for Israel to pin its hopes on its US security guarantor
assuming an offensive role in a major war with Hezbollah. Tensions are
also rising between the US and rival superpowers, reinforcing this
dynamic. </p><p>Speaking to <i>The Cradle</i>, Steven Simon, Senior
Director for the Middle East and North Africa in the US National
Security Council during the Obama administration, emphasizes that “a
direct combat role beyond air defenses (in a full-scale war between
Hezbollah and Israel) is highly unlikely.” This is especially the case,
he adds, “given tensions with Russia and China.”</p><p><a href="https://x.com/TimmiB_/status/1799211347890114910">Nawaf al-Musawi</a>, Hezbollah’s Resource and Border Affairs official and one of the movement’s strategic thinkers, offers this prediction:</p><blockquote><p>The
Israeli occupation needs weapons from Washington for any war it wishes
to wage against Lebanon. After any war with Lebanon, the region will not
be the same as it was before. The next war with Israel will be the
final war.</p></blockquote></span></div></div></div></div>
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