[News] Crisis & Critique: Norway, Bachelet, and the Twilight of Guaido’s Insurrection

[Anti-Imperialist News]

https://venezuelanalysis.com/analysis/14580


  Crisis & Critique: Norway, Bachelet, and the Twilight of Guaido’s
  Insurrection

By Ociel Lopez - July 10, 2019
------------------------------------------------------------------------

/Venezuelanalysis is proud to present our new column dedicated to big 
picture political analysis titled, “Crisis & Critique.” Our columnist is 
Ociel Alí López, a Venezuelan sociologist specializing in popular 
culture and communication. Each month, Ociel will provide us with a 
structural analysis of Venezuela’s ever fluid correlation of forces, 
examining the current political and social dynamics underpinning 
Chavismo, the right-wing opposition, and US imperialism. This week, 
Ociel takes a look at the state of Guaido’s coup effort in the wake of 
Bachelet’s visit and amid new negotiations with the Maduro government. /

Guaido’s uprising is going through its terminal phrase. He does not yet 
appear to have reached his end as leader, as he still produces and 
consolidates an important consensus among the opposition. What has 
decisively failed is his attempt to form a government without elections 
with the backing of the hawks in Washington. In almost six months since 
his self-swearing in <https://venezuelanalysis.com/news/14244> as 
“interim president,” it has become palpable that his governing is truly 
impossible. The coup de grace was delivered by Michelle Bachelet when 
she visited the National Assembly, of which he is president and a 
deputy. The UN high commissioner for human rights did not recognize him 
as president of the republic, but she did propose a roadmap for 
pressuring the Maduro government, which Guaido accepted even though it 
represents a deviation from Washington’s strategy.

The Trump administration invested a large part of its political and 
diplomatic capital in overthrowing Maduro, especially in the first six 
months of 2019. And it didn’t achieve it. Pence, Pompeo, Bolton, and 
Abrams squandered a valuable amount of time with disastrous results. 
Since talks began <https://venezuelanalysis.com/news/14495> in Norway, 
the hawks have opted to wash their hands 
<https://venezuelanalysis.com/news/14525> of the matter and leave Guaido 
to his own fate.

The fracture in the opposition deepens with every defeat. The faction of 
the opposition favored by the US government is stronger online than it 
is in the streets, where it grows weaker every day. Voluntad Popular 
(VP), Leopoldo Lopez <https://venezuelanalysis.com/analysis/11452> and 
Juan Guaido’s minoritarian radical party with only 14 seats in the 
165-seat legislature, was chosen by the hawks to lead a new offensive 
that has not only been defeated on its own terms, but VP has been 
accused <https://venezuelanalysis.com/news/14577> of “appeasement” by 
its own radical sectors after promoting dialogue with the Maduro 
government under the auspices of Norway. As the Venezuelan popular 
saying goes, “they were left without the goat and without the leash.” 
That is, the much-anticipated invasion never came and the actors that 
could maneuver in the national political sphere, namely the large 
opposition parties, were displaced by those who imposed a media-driven 
politics that looks to foreign powers for solutions. And now what?

The anti-government march on July 5 demonstrated that the opposition now 
does not even mobilize the bases of its own parties. Looking at the 
social media feeds of the most radical and mobilized opposition 
currents, it’s clear that they blame Guaido for failing in his attempt 
to govern and for his inefficient endeavor to secure foreign military 
intervention. Also weighing heavy are the allegations of corruption 
<https://venezuelanalysis.com/news/14545> on the part of his team in the 
provision of humanitarian aid, exposed by opposition media outlets.

 From January of this year, when Guaido swore himself in, it was 
foreseeable that street mobilizations would not be enough to oust 
Maduro, not even those of January 23 
<https://venezuelanalysis.com/news/14250>, whose widespread support was 
even evident in hardcore protests in some Caracas barrios. What was 
anticipated was some kind of direct action by the US armed forces, or 
those of a neighboring country, so that the escalation of the conflict 
in the media actually reached the national territory. The climax, which 
took place on February 23 <https://venezuelanalysis.com/news/14347> 
around the attempted forced entry of humanitarian aid, quickly petered 
out. The same thing happened on April 30 with the coup attempt 
<https://venezuelanalysis.com/news/14453>. They were very weak movements 
that drew Maduro and the armed forces closer together – the opposite of 
what was sought.

But the decline of Guaido does not mean a definitive victory for 
Chavismo. It can even debilitate it as we will see.


      Bachelet’s report

The three-day visit <https://venezuelanalysis.com/news/14554> to 
Venezuela by UN High Commissioner for Human Rights and former Chilean 
President Michelle Bachelet on June 19-21 and subsequent release of her 
report on July 5 can be read as a change of scene in the Venezuelan 
conflict.

During her stay, Bachelet met with President Maduro in the presidential 
palace and with Juan Guaido in the National Assembly. This may surprise 
us if we remember that since January over fifty foreign governments have 
recognized <https://venezuelanalysis.com/analysis/14303> Guaido as 
“interim president,” although he has not been able to exercise any 
functions beyond naming “ambassadors.” Bachelet put an end to the farce 
and showed things as they really are, something which the international 
community has not dared to do: she removed the virtual throne from under 
Guaido and recognized Maduro as the only president.

Bachelet’s report effectively displaces the conflict to the political 
arena because it is accepted enthusiastically by the opposition, even 
though the document doesn’t repeat its mantra of the “end of the 
usurpation,” and is welcomed by Maduro, who made two important gestures: 
the release of 22 “political prisoners” and the rumored proposal for 
Bolivarian deputies to return to their seats in the National Assembly, 
which they had abandoned since the emergence of the National Constituent 
Assembly in August 2017. In this way, Maduro opens up the possibility of 
negotiation, in which the Norway 
<https://venezuelanalysis.com/news/14510> experience can play a pivotal 
role.

The report presents interesting options for both parties in the 
conflict. For Maduro, it legitimates his refusal to recognize Guaido’s 
“interim presidency” and it sidelines Washington in the dispute for 
hegemony over the Venezuela question. For the opposition, which suffered 
another defeat and internal division following Bachelet’s recognition 
<https://venezuelanalysis.com/news/14554> of Maduro, the report allows 
it to double down on its call for foreign military intervention. The 
radicals on either side have simultaneously launched a broadside of 
criticisms at the ex-president, but significant sectors in both camps 
have recognized the legitimacy of the report, which sets the table for 
Norway-mediated talks.


      Chavismo in its trench

The elements of cohesion in Chavismo are more external than internal. 
Chavismo closes ranks when confronting an enemy force of the proportions 
of the governments of the US or Colombia, or when the opposition resorts 
to violence. Once the “Guaido effect” is exposed as an impotent act, the 
Maduro government is left standing without tangible opponents and begins 
to face a crisis situation in which it is itself completely helpless. 
That is when the seams in the institutional armor covering the 
government become visible, due to its inability to control an economy 
that is already liberalized <https://venezuelanalysis.com/analysis/14542>.

What has also become apparent recently is the government’s lack of 
control over state security forces. Obviously, Chavismo resents having 
to confront situations like the death 
<https://venezuelanalysis.com/news/14563> by alleged torture of Captain 
Acosta Arevalo on June 29, as well as the arrest of grassroots 
Bolivarian militant Jose Ramon Rodriguez on July 5. In the first case, 
arrests have been, and in the second, Ramon Rodriguez has been freed. 
However, the accusations of grave misconduct on the part of the security 
forces, detailed in the Bachelet Report, are a concern shared by some 
currents <https://venezuelanalysis.com/analysis/14256> of Chavismo.

Other sectors, including the United Socialist Party of Venezuela, reject 
<https://venezuelanalysis.com/news/14575> the Bachelet report. Even now 
Maduro has demonstrated – and Bachelet has recognized it – that he is 
making moves to set the stage for negotiations: is there movement 
towards a power-sharing agreement or rather tactical maneuvers to remain 
in power?

Regardless, it is undeniable that negotiations driven by Norway open the 
way for a scenario that can overcome the stalemate in the internal 
political game. A shift in political and diplomatic relations is needed 
in order to extricate Venezuela from its current economic quagmire, 
which is impacting the region.

/Ociel Alí López is a Venezuelan researcher who has published numerous 
written and multimedia works. He is dedicated to analyzing Venezuelan 
society for several European and Latin American media outlets. He is a 
co-founder of alternative Venezuelan state television station Avila TV 
in 2006. He is the recipient of the CLACSO/ASDI researcher prize and the 
Britto Garcia literature award./

/The views expressed in this article are the author's own and do not 
necessarily reflect those of the Venezuelanalysis editorial staff./

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