[News] The West Bank is a ticking time bomb

[Anti-Imperialist News]

  The West Bank is a ticking time bomb

With army-protected Jewish extremists running riot through Palestinian 
towns, and the deeply unpopular, US-backed PA barely holding on to its 
reins, the West Bank is primed for a seismic explosion that will 
transform into Israel's next war front.

The Cradle's Lebanon Correspondent 
<https://new.thecradle.co/authors/the-cradles-lebanon-correspondent>

JAN 15, 2024 - 
https://new.thecradle.co/articles/the-west-bank-is-a-ticking-time-bomb

Photo Credit: The Cradle

Alongside the military assault on Gaza, extremist religious parties in 
Israel's government coalition seized a strategic opportunity after 
Operation Al-Aqsa Flood to launch a systematic displacement agenda in 
the occupied West Bank.

This stealthy policy was facilitated by several factors, notably, the 
escalation of settler violence post-7 October, increased _political 
pressure_ 
<https://new.thecradle.co/articles/the-war-within-israels-war-cabinet> 
on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and the vise-like leverage that 
settler-extremists enjoy over Israel's ruling coalition and key 
governmental institutions, particularly the Ministry of Finance

As an example, nearly _$250 million_ 
<https://israelpolicyforum.org/2023/11/30/the-most-irresponsible-man-in-israel/> 
of the national budget earmarked for war expenses in December 2023 was 
directed by Israel's radical Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich toward 
settlement projects in the West Bank.

Immediately after its announcement, the EU criticized the 
settlement-funding provisions of the revised budget, rightly arguing 
that the expansion of illegal Israeli settlements and the forced 
displacement of Palestinians undermine security in the occupied West 
Bank, and will not make Israel safer.

*The silent war on the West Bank *

In response, Tel Aviv significantly tightened its grip on West Bank 
Palestinians. This involved obstructing Palestinian workers from 
employment in Israel and the finance minister’s _refusal_ 
<https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/palestinians-refuse-accept-partial-tax-transfer-israel-2023-11-06/#:~:text=Smotrich%20has%20refused%20to%20release,which%20killed%20around%201%2C400%20people.> 
to transfer Palestinian clearance funds to the Palestinian Authority 
(PA) to pay Gaza's worker salaries.

On the military front, Israeli has launched a frenzied campaign on the 
West Bank since 7 October, resulting in the death of hundreds and arrest 
of over 6,000 Palestinians. Acts of violence, forced _displacement_ 
<https://new.thecradle.co/articles-id/11590> of civilians, and armed 
settler attacks – enabled by weapon transfers from Israel's extremist 
National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir – escalated dramatically 
across the occupied territory.

Ben Gvir, who fronts the hidden agenda of nationalist and religious 
parties in the coalition government, used the Al-Aqsa Flood events to 
displace 25 Palestinian Bedouin communities, including 266 families in 
the eastern foothills near Ramallah and the Jordan Valley.

Already this year, under pressure from his extremist allies, Netanyahu 
has halted demolitions of illegal Jewish outposts in the West Bank, 
going against the recommendation of Defense Minister Yoav Galant who is 
trying to ease tensions in the West Bank while conflict rages on 
Israel's northern and southern fronts.

In early January, Smotrich and Ben Gvir publicly called for the 
_displacement of Gazans_ 
<https://www.timesofisrael.com/us-slams-irresponsible-calls-by-smotrich-and-ben-gvir-for-emigration-of-gazans/> 
to make way for the _return of Zionist settlers_ 
<https://new.thecradle.co/articles/rebuilding-gush-katif-the-scheme-to-return-jewish-settlers-to-gaza> 
to the Gaza Strip for the first time since their 2005 expulsion. Their 
belligerent comments sparked a new rift with the US administration of 
Joe Biden, which has sharply criticized “inflammatory and irresponsible” 
rhetoric from Tel Aviv.

*Blinken’s mission in Ramallah *

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s recent visit with Palestinian 
Authority (PA) President Mahmoud Abbas was not primarily focused on 
_post-war discussions_ 
<https://new.thecradle.co/articles/diverging-paths-the-us-israel-divide-over-post-war-gaza> 
on Gaza, as Washington has widely suggested, but on curbing a West Bank 
conflagration.

The occupied Palestinian territory is today a ticking time bomb that 
could explode at any moment, over any incident, small or large, and 
which could jeopardize frantic US attempts to defuse and manage the 
military escalation on Lebanon's borders.

Blinken’s key objective was to exert pressure on the PA, which governs 
the West Bank, to prevent and quash any popular Palestinian uprising 
that could lead to the opening of a third war front against Tel Aviv.

Last week, Israeli security and military authorities intensified their 
warnings to cabinet members, urging Netanyahu to de-escalate tensions to 
avert a third intifada, which the Israeli army may struggle to contain 
while heavily distracted with Gaza, Lebanon, and the significant 
_economic impact_ 
<https://new.thecradle.co/articles/how-yemen-is-inflating-israels-war-cost> 
from Yemen’s shipping blockade.

*US and Israel are not on the same page *

The US is up against a highly-pressured timeline as it gears up for the 
upcoming presidential elections. Despite its efforts to find temporary, 
band-aid solutions for the regional unrest unleashed by Tel Aviv's war 
on Gaza, Washington finds itself increasingly entangled in a West Asian 
quagmire, courtesy of its recent airstrikes on Yemen.

What greatly bothers the White House is that its Israeli ally appears to 
be frustratingly unconcerned with this American dilemma, with Netanyahu 
far more focused on his _personal political future_ 
<https://new.thecradle.co/articles/netanyahus-end-game-in-gaza-is-his-own-political-survival> 
and the radical agenda of his coalition partners — an agenda not aligned 
with overall US interests.

Despite persistent warnings about the volatile situation in the West 
Bank, the Israeli prime minister refuses to pressure his allies, fearful 
of their repeated threats to abandon his coalition government.

The US cannot afford a West Bank military escalation because of the 
major repercussions this may have on its post-war proposals for Gaza and 
on its domestic political scene. The PA, now _deeply unpopular_ 
<https://new.thecradle.co/articles/gaza-destroys-western-divide-and-rule-narratives> 
among its own Palestinian constituents, is also a crucial component of 
US projects in West Asia, many overlapping with various regional agendas.

Since the start of the current war, the US has sought to involve the PA 
in the post-war political rehabilitation of Gaza, in alignment with 
several Arab and western countries, as a preliminary step toward 
resuming negotiations for a two-state solution between Israel and 
Palestine.

The path to a ‘just peace’ has become a key element in discussions 
between Washington and Riyadh, in which the latter insists on tangible 
Israeli steps toward a two-state solution before considering a _full 
normalization_ <https://new.thecradle.co/articles-id/18164> with Tel Aviv.

While the ever-elusive, two-state option was initially a secondary 
consideration in normalization talks, Israel's brutal and unprecedented 
military assault on Gaza, in which over 22,000 mostly women and children 
have been killed, has now become a central component for Saudi Arabia.

Riyadh has its own motivations, both internal and external, and is 
firmly adhering to the two-state path. With growing discontent in the US 
over Biden's handling of the region’s crisis, the White House is in need 
of a diplomatic breakthrough in West Asia to secure some electoral 
gains. Recent polls, however, which will almost certainly be exacerbated 
by last week's unprovoked strikes on Yemen, continue to indicate US 
voter dissatisfaction (57 percent) with Biden's management of _West 
Asian policy_ 
<https://news.gallup.com/poll/544808/poor-marks-biden-middle-east-economy-foreign-affairs.aspx>.

*The PA’s uncertain future *

To confuse matters further, the US-backed Israeli military establishment 
has different calculations than the Netanyahu-led government it serves. 
The military aims to demobilize reservists and shift to a less severe, 
more targeted level of aggression in Gaza, aligning with US advice, 
while simultaneously, preparations are being made for a potential 
Israeli escalation with Lebanon.

Much is unknown about the ongoing coordination between the Israeli 
military and the Pentagon – in terms of whether they are willing to 
undermine Tel Aviv's goals and tactics – other than their joint concern 
that Israel's right-wing government pursues personal interests over 
strategic considerations.

But avoiding a West Bank conflagration is a major concern for both, 
hence why this was a focal point of Blinken's visit with Abbas and his 
shuttle diplomacy with the Saudis. The threat of a West Bank escalation 
was also used as leverage by the US to wrest Palestinian clearance funds 
back from the Netanyahu government. Key to the White House efforts is 
securing the weak and ineffectual PA as its main Palestinian partner 
moving forward, and rebranding it as a safe alternative to Hamas and 
other resistance factions in Gaza.

Since 7 October, the PA has sought political cover by tightly aligning 
itself to the stances of Egypt and Jordan, who warn Israel and its 
allies against population displacements in Gaza and the West Bank. This 
has led to increased engagements between Ramallah, Cairo, and Amman, 
which suits Washington's agenda well.

None of these things, however, disguises the fact that an unpopular PA, 
riding on the shoulders of the now utterly despised American enablers of 
Gaza's collapse, is seeking to unseat a popular Palestinian resistance, 
while poorly managing multiple war fronts, with an Israeli government 
immune to US demands or pleas.

Washington couldn't deliver a Palestinian solution in the decades since 
peace was struck in Oslo – so what can it possibly do now? Wealthy Arab 
states are not interested in carrying the load of the PA when even the 
US can barely keep it on life support. Even UAE leader _Mohammad bin 
Zayed_ 
<https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20240109-uae-refuses-netanyahus-request-it-pay-wages-of-palestinians-israel-banned-from-work/>_,_ 
the Arab point-man for the Abraham Accords with Israel, told Netanyahu 
to ‘go ask Zelensky’ when the Israeli PM came begging for money to prop 
up the PA.

Band-aid solutions are only ever temporary. It takes a mere few drops of 
water to destroy their efficacy. As religious settlers run wild 
throughout the West Bank, courtesy of the Netanyahu government – the US 
will be playing full-time nursemaid alone, in a vain effort to tend to 
each and every cut. We could be one wound away from the whole enterprise 
imploding.
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