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<h1 class="gmail-">The West Bank is a ticking time bomb</h1>
<p class="gmail-">With army-protected Jewish extremists running
riot through Palestinian towns, and the deeply unpopular,
US-backed PA barely holding on to its reins, the West Bank is
primed for a seismic explosion that will transform into
Israel's next war front.</p>
<div class="gmail-another-name">
<p><a
href="https://new.thecradle.co/authors/the-cradles-lebanon-correspondent"
style="color:rgb(164,4,4)" moz-do-not-send="true">The
Cradle's Lebanon Correspondent</a></p>
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<div class="gmail-another-name" style="margin-top:16px">
<p><span>JAN 15, 2024 - </span><font size="1"><a
href="https://new.thecradle.co/articles/the-west-bank-is-a-ticking-time-bomb"
moz-do-not-send="true" class="moz-txt-link-freetext">https://new.thecradle.co/articles/the-west-bank-is-a-ticking-time-bomb</a></font></p>
</div>
</div>
<div class="gmail-inner-article-img"><img
src="http://thecradle-main.oss-eu-central-1.aliyuncs.com/public/articles/5b944696-b3bc-11ee-b7cb-00163e02c055.jpeg"
alt="" style="margin-right: 0px;" moz-do-not-send="true"
width="391" height="185"><span>Photo Credit: The Cradle</span></div>
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<div class="gmail-col-md-8 gmail-col-sm-7">
<div class="gmail-article-content"><span>
<p style="margin-left:0cm">Alongside the military
assault on Gaza, extremist religious parties in
Israel's government coalition seized a strategic
opportunity after Operation Al-Aqsa Flood to launch a
systematic displacement agenda in the occupied West
Bank.</p>
<p style="margin-left:0cm">This stealthy policy was
facilitated by several factors, notably, the
escalation of settler violence post-7 October,
increased <a
href="https://new.thecradle.co/articles/the-war-within-israels-war-cabinet"
moz-do-not-send="true"><u>political pressure</u></a>
on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and the
vise-like leverage that settler-extremists enjoy over
Israel's ruling coalition and key governmental
institutions, particularly the Ministry of Finance</p>
<p style="margin-left:0cm">As an example, nearly <a
href="https://israelpolicyforum.org/2023/11/30/the-most-irresponsible-man-in-israel/"
moz-do-not-send="true"><u>$250 million</u></a> of
the national budget earmarked for war expenses in
December 2023 was directed by Israel's radical Finance
Minister Bezalel Smotrich toward settlement projects
in the West Bank.</p>
<p style="margin-left:0cm">Immediately after its
announcement, the EU criticized the settlement-funding
provisions of the revised budget, rightly arguing that
the expansion of illegal Israeli settlements and the
forced displacement of Palestinians undermine security
in the occupied West Bank, and will not make Israel
safer.</p>
<p style="margin-left:0cm"><strong>The silent war on the
West Bank </strong></p>
<p style="margin-left:0cm">In response, Tel Aviv
significantly tightened its grip on West Bank
Palestinians. This involved obstructing Palestinian
workers from employment in Israel and the finance
minister’s <a
href="https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/palestinians-refuse-accept-partial-tax-transfer-israel-2023-11-06/#:~:text=Smotrich%20has%20refused%20to%20release,which%20killed%20around%201%2C400%20people."
moz-do-not-send="true"><u>refusal</u></a> to
transfer Palestinian clearance funds to the
Palestinian Authority (PA) to pay Gaza's worker
salaries.</p>
<p style="margin-left:0cm">On the military front,
Israeli has launched a frenzied campaign on the West
Bank since 7 October, resulting in the death of
hundreds and arrest of over 6,000 Palestinians. Acts
of violence, forced <a
href="https://new.thecradle.co/articles-id/11590"
moz-do-not-send="true"><u>displacement</u></a> of
civilians, and armed settler attacks – enabled by
weapon transfers from Israel's extremist National
Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir – escalated
dramatically across the occupied territory. </p>
<p style="margin-left:0cm">Ben Gvir, who fronts the
hidden agenda of nationalist and religious parties in
the coalition government, used the Al-Aqsa Flood
events to displace 25 Palestinian Bedouin communities,
including 266 families in the eastern foothills near
Ramallah and the Jordan Valley. </p>
<p style="margin-left:0cm">Already this year, under
pressure from his extremist allies, Netanyahu has
halted demolitions of illegal Jewish outposts in the
West Bank, going against the recommendation of Defense
Minister Yoav Galant who is trying to ease tensions in
the West Bank while conflict rages on Israel's
northern and southern fronts.</p>
<p style="margin-left:0cm">In early January, Smotrich
and Ben Gvir publicly called for the <a
href="https://www.timesofisrael.com/us-slams-irresponsible-calls-by-smotrich-and-ben-gvir-for-emigration-of-gazans/"
moz-do-not-send="true"><u>displacement of Gazans</u></a>
to make way for the <a
href="https://new.thecradle.co/articles/rebuilding-gush-katif-the-scheme-to-return-jewish-settlers-to-gaza"
moz-do-not-send="true"><u>return of Zionist settlers</u></a>
to the Gaza Strip for the first time since their 2005
expulsion. Their belligerent comments sparked a new
rift with the US administration of Joe Biden, which
has sharply criticized “inflammatory and
irresponsible” rhetoric from Tel Aviv. </p>
<p style="margin-left:0cm"><strong>Blinken’s mission in
Ramallah </strong></p>
<p style="margin-left:0cm">US Secretary of State Antony
Blinken’s recent visit with Palestinian Authority (PA)
President Mahmoud Abbas was not primarily focused on <a
href="https://new.thecradle.co/articles/diverging-paths-the-us-israel-divide-over-post-war-gaza"
moz-do-not-send="true"><u>post-war discussions</u></a>
on Gaza, as Washington has widely suggested, but on
curbing a West Bank conflagration.</p>
<p style="margin-left:0cm">The occupied Palestinian
territory is today a ticking time bomb that could
explode at any moment, over any incident, small or
large, and which could jeopardize frantic US attempts
to defuse and manage the military escalation on
Lebanon's borders.</p>
<p style="margin-left:0cm">Blinken’s key objective was
to exert pressure on the PA, which governs the West
Bank, to prevent and quash any popular Palestinian
uprising that could lead to the opening of a third war
front against Tel Aviv. </p>
<p style="margin-left:0cm">Last week, Israeli security
and military authorities intensified their warnings to
cabinet members, urging Netanyahu to de-escalate
tensions to avert a third intifada, which the Israeli
army may struggle to contain while heavily distracted
with Gaza, Lebanon, and the significant <a
href="https://new.thecradle.co/articles/how-yemen-is-inflating-israels-war-cost"
moz-do-not-send="true"><u>economic impact</u></a>
from Yemen’s shipping blockade. </p>
<p style="margin-left:0cm"><strong>US and Israel are not
on the same page </strong></p>
<p style="margin-left:0cm">The US is up against a
highly-pressured timeline as it gears up for the
upcoming presidential elections. Despite its efforts
to find temporary, band-aid solutions for the regional
unrest unleashed by Tel Aviv's war on Gaza, Washington
finds itself increasingly entangled in a West Asian
quagmire, courtesy of its recent airstrikes on Yemen.</p>
<p style="margin-left:0cm">What greatly bothers the
White House is that its Israeli ally appears to be
frustratingly unconcerned with this American dilemma,
with Netanyahu far more focused on his <a
href="https://new.thecradle.co/articles/netanyahus-end-game-in-gaza-is-his-own-political-survival"
moz-do-not-send="true"><u>personal political future</u></a>
and the radical agenda of his coalition partners — an
agenda not aligned with overall US interests.</p>
<p style="margin-left:0cm">Despite persistent warnings
about the volatile situation in the West Bank, the
Israeli prime minister refuses to pressure his allies,
fearful of their repeated threats to abandon his
coalition government. </p>
<p style="margin-left:0cm">The US cannot afford a West
Bank military escalation because of the major
repercussions this may have on its post-war proposals
for Gaza and on its domestic political scene. The PA,
now <a
href="https://new.thecradle.co/articles/gaza-destroys-western-divide-and-rule-narratives"
moz-do-not-send="true"><u>deeply unpopular</u></a>
among its own Palestinian constituents, is also a
crucial component of US projects in West Asia, many
overlapping with various regional agendas.</p>
<p style="margin-left:0cm">Since the start of the
current war, the US has sought to involve the PA in
the post-war political rehabilitation of Gaza, in
alignment with several Arab and western countries, as
a preliminary step toward resuming negotiations for a
two-state solution between Israel and Palestine. </p>
<p style="margin-left:0cm">The path to a ‘just peace’
has become a key element in discussions between
Washington and Riyadh, in which the latter insists on
tangible Israeli steps toward a two-state solution
before considering a <a
href="https://new.thecradle.co/articles-id/18164"
moz-do-not-send="true"><u>full normalization</u></a>
with Tel Aviv.</p>
<p style="margin-left:0cm">While the ever-elusive,
two-state option was initially a secondary
consideration in normalization talks, Israel's brutal
and unprecedented military assault on Gaza, in which
over 22,000 mostly women and children have been
killed, has now become a central component for Saudi
Arabia. </p>
<p style="margin-left:0cm">Riyadh has its own
motivations, both internal and external, and is firmly
adhering to the two-state path. With growing
discontent in the US over Biden's handling of the
region’s crisis, the White House is in need of a
diplomatic breakthrough in West Asia to secure some
electoral gains. Recent polls, however, which will
almost certainly be exacerbated by last week's
unprovoked strikes on Yemen, continue to indicate US
voter dissatisfaction (57 percent) with Biden's
management of <a
href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/544808/poor-marks-biden-middle-east-economy-foreign-affairs.aspx"
moz-do-not-send="true"><u>West Asian policy</u></a>.</p>
<p style="margin-left:0cm"><strong>The PA’s uncertain
future </strong></p>
<p style="margin-left:0cm">To confuse matters further,
the US-backed Israeli military establishment has
different calculations than the Netanyahu-led
government it serves. The military aims to demobilize
reservists and shift to a less severe, more targeted
level of aggression in Gaza, aligning with US advice,
while simultaneously, preparations are being made for
a potential Israeli escalation with Lebanon. </p>
<p style="margin-left:0cm">Much is unknown about the
ongoing coordination between the Israeli military and
the Pentagon – in terms of whether they are willing to
undermine Tel Aviv's goals and tactics – other than
their joint concern that Israel's right-wing
government pursues personal interests over strategic
considerations.</p>
<p style="margin-left:0cm">But avoiding a West Bank
conflagration is a major concern for both, hence why
this was a focal point of Blinken's visit with Abbas
and his shuttle diplomacy with the Saudis. The threat
of a West Bank escalation was also used as leverage by
the US to wrest Palestinian clearance funds back from
the Netanyahu government. Key to the White House
efforts is securing the weak and ineffectual PA as its
main Palestinian partner moving forward, and
rebranding it as a safe alternative to Hamas and other
resistance factions in Gaza.</p>
<p style="margin-left:0cm">Since 7 October, the PA has
sought political cover by tightly aligning itself to
the stances of Egypt and Jordan, who warn Israel and
its allies against population displacements in Gaza
and the West Bank. This has led to increased
engagements between Ramallah, Cairo, and Amman, which
suits Washington's agenda well. </p>
<p style="margin-left:0cm">None of these things,
however, disguises the fact that an unpopular PA,
riding on the shoulders of the now utterly despised
American enablers of Gaza's collapse, is seeking to
unseat a popular Palestinian resistance, while poorly
managing multiple war fronts, with an Israeli
government immune to US demands or pleas.</p>
<p style="margin-left:0cm">Washington couldn't deliver a
Palestinian solution in the decades since peace was
struck in Oslo – so what can it possibly do now?
Wealthy Arab states are not interested in carrying the
load of the PA when even the US can barely keep it on
life support. Even UAE leader <a
href="https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20240109-uae-refuses-netanyahus-request-it-pay-wages-of-palestinians-israel-banned-from-work/"
moz-do-not-send="true"><u>Mohammad bin Zayed</u></a><u>,</u>
the Arab point-man for the Abraham Accords with
Israel, told Netanyahu to ‘go ask Zelensky’ when the
Israeli PM came begging for money to prop up the PA. </p>
<p style="margin-left:0cm">Band-aid solutions are only
ever temporary. It takes a mere few drops of water to
destroy their efficacy. As religious settlers run wild
throughout the West Bank, courtesy of the Netanyahu
government – the US will be playing full-time
nursemaid alone, in a vain effort to tend to each and
every cut. We could be one wound away from the whole
enterprise imploding.</p>
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