[News] How do Iranians ‘Boil a Frog’? Slowly and methodically

[Anti-Imperialist News]

 How do Iranians ‘Boil a Frog’? Slowly and methodically

Iran's apparent restraint in the face of Israeli aggression should not be
mistaken for weakness. Tehran steadily applies pressure on Tel Aviv through
its own methods, setting the stage carefully for Israel's unravelling.

Shivan Mahendrarajah <https://thecradle.co/authors/shivan-mahendrarajah>

APR 3, 2024 -
https://thecradle.co/articles/how-do-iranians-boil-a-frog-slowly-and-methodically
(Photo Credit: The Cradle)

A strategy in asymmetrical warfare is expressed by the “boiling frog”
theory:

Legend has it that a frog placed in a shallow pot of water heating on a
stove will remain happily in the pot of water as the temperature continues
to climb, and will not jump out even as the water slowly reaches the
boiling point and kills the frog. The change of one degree of temperature
at a time is so gradual that the frog doesn't realize he is being boiled
until it is too late.

While the story is an apologue – a pretty fable meant to convey a
meaningful lesson – it is one frequently invoked by militaries
<https://books.google.com.lb/books?id=G5_fAAAAMAAJ&pg=PA181&lpg=PA181&dq=Legend+has+it+that+a+frog+placed+in+a+shallow+pot+of+water+heating+on+a+stove+will+remain+happily+in+the+pot+of+water+as+the+temperature+continues+to+climb,+and+will+not+jump+out+even+as+the+water+slowly+reaches+the+boiling+point+and+kills+the+frog.+The+change+of+one+degree+of+temperature+at+a+time+is+so+gradual+that+the+frog+doesn%27t+realize+he+is+being+boiled+until+it+is+too+late.&source=bl&ots=oue26v7FcO&sig=ACfU3U0N-ok-IKL1HvfF1LD8ok51xcE8ug&hl=en&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwj4296Q7aWFAxWZUKQEHZg7DBoQ6AF6BAgpEAM#v=onepage&q=Legend%20has%20it%20that%20a%20frog%20placed%20in%20a%20shallow%20pot%20of%20water%20heating%20on%20a%20stove%20will%20remain%20happily%20in%20the%20pot%20of%20water%20as%20the%20temperature%20continues%20to%20climb%2C%20and%20will%20not%20jump%20out%20even%20as%20the%20water%20slowly%20reaches%20the%20boiling%20point%20and%20kills%20the%20frog.%20The%20change%20of%20one%20degree%20of%20temperature%20at%20a%20time%20is%20so%20gradual%20that%20the%20frog%20doesn't%20realize%20he%20is%20being%20boiled%20until%20it%20is%20too%20late.&f=false>
and
geopoliticians to describe the "long game" of reaching strategic objectives.

Today, it is Iran and its regional allies who are using a measured approach
to increase temperatures in West Asia until the water boils the US and
Israeli 'frogs' to death. Strategy, discipline, and rare patience – the
antithesis of western short-termism
<https://warroom.armywarcollege.edu/articles/short-termism/> – will bring
Iran victory. To quote the Taliban
<https://www.trtworld.com/opinion/you-have-the-watches-we-have-the-time-29643>:
"Americans have watches, but we have the time."

Time is now on the side of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)
and its regional allies. Two connected examples show how the IRGC is
calibrating temperatures like scientists in a laboratory.

*The Yankee Frog*

Following the launch of the Hamas-led resistance operation Al-Aqsa Flood on
7 October of last year, US President Joe Biden deployed US Navy assets to
the Persian Gulf and Mediterranean Sea to "defend" Israel.

On 26 November, the USS Eisenhower and its escorts navigated through the
Straits of Hormuz, anchoring in the Persian Gulf on the Saudi Arabian side.
Yemen's Ansarallah-aligned naval forces initially targeted Israeli ships
<https://thecradle.co/articles-id/13112> and Eilat Port with their first
shots on 19 October. But by 29 November, their attacks escalated to include
vessels bound to or from Eilat, irrespective of flag or ownership.

This pattern culminated in the Pentagon's announcement of "Operation
Prosperity Guardian <https://thecradle.co/articles-id/16852>" on 18
December, aimed at safeguarding Israel's economic interests at the expense
of US military personnel. Subsequently, the Eisenhower and its naval
escorts relocated from the Persian Gulf to the Red Sea and the Gulf of
Aden, purportedly to "defend" the occupation state.

Instead, the positioning of US Navy assets in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden
has left them susceptible to potential attacks from Iranian or
Iranian-supplied weaponry, including cruise missiles, ballistic missiles,
and drones.

Despite efforts from the US Navy (USN) and the US Air Force (USAF),
Ansarallah remains undefeated. Previous Anglo–American airstrikes in Yemen
have proven ineffective, while the ongoing pace and expanding scope
<https://thecradle.co/articles-id/24003> of Yemeni operations are straining
naval resources and dampening morale
<https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/crime/royal-navy-arrest-ipads-games-b2519260.html>
.

Unlike 'Hollywood guns,' US Navy vessels do not have unlimited interceptor
missiles, nor can they be reloaded at sea. As for the morale of American
personnel, it will break in the long run, particularly since many, if not
most, sailors and marines are simply not invested in a fight for Israel.

Last month, Captain Chris Hill, the commanding officer of the USS
Eisenhower, said <https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-68595451>:
"People need breaks, they need to go home."

While sailors, marines, and airmen are getting antsy dodging Ansarallah's
drones and missiles on a daily basis, the 'Yankee Frog' is merrily paddling
about his Washington hot tub, believing the 'might' of the USN will defeat
the pesky 'Houthis.'

This was arguably a well-calibrated move supported by Iran that
accomplished two objectives: First, it got the carrier battle group out of
the Persian Gulf, and second, it sucked the US into an escalatory trap. The
Yankee Frog is in the Red Sea/Gulf of Aden hotpot. It cannot win.

It will either jump out and flee in humiliation, further destroying the
credibility of the US armed forces following its humiliating 2021 debacle
in Afghanistan
<https://thecradle.co/articles/poor-planning-led-to-chaotic-afghanistan-withdrawal-us-state-department>;
or it will remain in the hotpot and be boiled to death—with the loss of
ships and lives.

With either outcome, Iran wins. Relatedly, an Iranian defeat of the US will
be welcomed by China, Russia, and scores of US adversary states,
particularly across the global south. As noted by one astute Twitter/X
user, Armchair Warrior
<https://twitter.com/ArmchairW/status/1770662642744803467> (describing
Russia's likely responses to Ukrainian provocations), by its actions, Iran
has demonstrated "reflexive control" over Washington's actions. By this, he
means, "If every military action you take gets a symmetrical reaction, then
you can control the nature, venue, and tempo of the conflict to your
benefit." This is precisely what the IRGC is cleverly doing.

*The Israeli Frog*

The wee 'Israeli Frog,' meanwhile, somnolent in the warm water, is dreaming
of his ‘new Israel’ – the Israel that he will create once he has ethnically
cleansed Gaza. He has plans to develop Gaza, build luxury condos along the
beachfront, and build housing units for new settlers.

Architects are now drawing up plans. Former President and current
Republican contender Donald Trump's son-in-law, Jared Kushner, a
Netanyahuist and Likud Party benefactor, is measuring drapes for his Gaza
waterfront condominium
<https://apnews.com/article/jared-kushner-trump-israel-waterfront-property-901895eeafee867e69d0c4582a4deb47>
.

However, the Israeli military has not defeated Hamas, which continues to
inflict significant damage to Israeli military hardware and human assets.
By one estimate, Hamas has only been degraded by 15–20 percent. The
occupation army wholly depends on the US and its European vassal states for
armaments since its domestic production capacities are limited.

According to one estimate, some 500,000 settlers have returned to their
homelands; most will not return <https://thecradle.co/articles-id/19632>.
Since 7 October, conscription is no longer a safe yet inconvenient
three-year requirement: parents are afraid for their daughters and sons.

The dormant refusenik movement that emerged from the 1982 Israeli invasion
of Lebanon has re-awakened. Draftees are refusing to serve and being jailed
as a result. The conscription exemption
<https://www.vox.com/politics/24114496/benjamin-netanyahu-ultra-orthodox-conscription-coalition-gaza>
for
ultra-Orthodox Jews expired on 1 April; they are threatening to flee
Israel, whose very survival is dependent on Jews *moving there*.

If representatives of ultra-Orthodox Jews quit Prime Minister Benjamin
Netanyahu's coalition, it could bring down his extremist government.
Internal tensions within Israeli society are escalating, fueled by
socio-economic pressures and disillusionment with the government's handling
of the war.

The Israeli economy is in shambles. The shekel is declining. It is 3.60 ILS
to 1 USD from highs of 4.01 ILS to 1 USD, with further declines likely.
Budget deficits and borrowing have skyrocketed. Moody's downgraded
<https://www.timesofisrael.com/after-credit-downgrade-moodys-lowers-deposit-ratings-of-israels-five-largest-banks/#:~:text=That%20decision%20saw%20Moody's%20cut,weaken%20its%20executive%20and%20legislative>Israel's
credit from A1 to A2 on 9 February. Israel's tourism industry has collapsed
into crisis. Most major airlines no longer fly to Israel. Israel's
manufacturing and agricultural bases are small. Israel has limited access
to natural resources and energy; it depends on overland lifelines to Jordan
and Egypt, with Azerbaijani oil and gas coming to Haifa from Turkey.

Iran is doing to Israel just what Israel did to it with economic sanctions.
But unlike Israel, Iran has abundant supplies of oil and gas, 85 million
literate and educated people who are not planning to flee, and formidable
agricultural and manufacturing bases.

Tehran is methodically throttling Israel's economy. Haifa port is on
Hezbollah's target list. If Haifa is shut down alongside Eilat, Israel will
only have overland lifelines for food and energy supplies. Ben Gurion
International and other airports may be targeted in the future.

*Turning up the heat, one degree at a time*

The recent Israeli attack on the Iranian diplomatic mission in Damascus,
purportedly in response to an Iraqi drone striking Eilat, mirrors
Netanyahu's apprehensions and frustrations
<https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/netanyahu-whole-world-is-ganging-up-on-us-its-a-combination-of-ignorance-and-antisemitism/>
–
that "the whole world is ganging up on us."

Netanyahu's strategy appears to be to goad Iran into escalating tensions,
potentially prompting them to target American military assets in the
region, thereby drawing the US into the Gaza War. However, it's uncertain
whether Tehran will take the bait.

While the IRGC is likely to respond, they will look to avoid falling into
Netanyahu's trap. Instead, Iran may opt to tighten its economic
stranglehold on Israel, possibly by targeting strategic locations such as
Eilat, Haifa, and Ben Gurion Airport.

The IRGC understands that Israel's economy cannot sustain a prolonged
conflict. Therefore, their strategy might involve a gradual escalation –
effectively boiling the Israeli frog slowly – through coordinated actions
involving Hezbollah, Ansarallah, and various Syrian and Iraqi-based
factions.

As the economist Herbert Stein noted, "If something cannot go on forever,
it will stop." While Israel is far from being on the brink of collapse, the
disciplined and calculated actions of the IRGC are steadily increasing
regional tensions. If left unchecked, this could lead to significant
repercussions for Israeli society and its economy – all without it
realizing, like the wee boiling frog.



*A version of this article was published on 22 March on the author's
website.*
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