[News] The Latest Chapter in Vietnam’s Valiant Battle Against the Delta Variant
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Thu Oct 28 22:27:23 EDT 2021
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<https://www.counterpunch.org/2021/10/28/the-latest-chapter-in-vietnams-valiant-battle-against-the-delta-variant/>
The Latest Chapter in Vietnam’s Valiant Battle Against the Delta Variant
by Mark Ashwill <https://www.counterpunch.org/author/mark-ashwill/> -
October 28, 2021
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Hoan Kiem Lake in the heart of Hanoi during the lockdown. Photo: Mark
Ashwill.
The hectic, sun-drenched streets of the capital have fallen silent
/In the middle of the day/
The empty parks surrounded by yellow ribbons that exclaim,
/Keep out/!
Shuttered stores and barricaded neighborhoods
Livelihoods diminished; plans put on hold; dreams deferred
Masked people shuffling around like otherworldly figures
Waiting patiently, resolutely, and with steely determination
/Hà Nội in the Fourth Wave/
<https://markashwill.com/2021/09/24/ha-noi-in-the-fourth-wave-a-heartfelt-wish-a-hopeful-prediction/>/:
A Heartfelt Wish & a Hopeful Prediction/ (MAA)
Known the world over as a bustling country filled with optimistic and
hard-working people, Vietnam suddenly became an eerily quiet and serene
place after the fourth wave of COVID-19 crashed on its shores. The
country and its people were confronted with the most acute public health
crisis since the end of the US war in 1975. Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC) and
neighboring provinces remain the epicenter of the fourth wave with the
lion’s share of infections and deaths to date, most of which have
occurred since last spring.
The good news is that most Vietnamese and expats are beginning to bask
in the light at the end of tunnel. To the collective relief of a
combined total of 15 million souls in HCMC and Hanoi, most of the
lockdown restrictions
<https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/vietnam-capital-hanoi-ease-coronavirus-curbs-this-week-2021-09-20/>
were lifted on October 1^st in the former and the third week of
September in the latter.
A comparison of the number of new cases in August vs. October 2021
illustrates the dramatic progress that is being made on a daily basis.
On August 27th, Vietnam confirmed a single-day record of 17,409 new
cases and a one-week average of 12,431. By contrast, the one-day
increase for October 26th was 3,592 new cases and a one-week average of
3,690.
As of October 27^th , there was a cumulative nationwide total of 896,174
confirmed cases, of whom 810,290 (90%) patients have recovered, and
21,802 deaths, according to the Vietnam Ministry of Health.
While these numbers pale in comparison to countries like Brazil, Canada,
India, Italy, the US, and Russia, the concern from the outset was to
contain the virus, a goal that Vietnam achieved, and now to create
immunity through mass vaccinations, because of population density and
the nation’s fragile healthcare system.
*Life Under Lockdown *
HCMC was under lockdown for three months. In the North, which has had
far fewer infections, Hanoi’s lockdown, the government’s attempt to err
on the side of caution, lasted for two months. People were only supposed
to leave their homes to purchase necessities in their neighborhoods.
(The only businesses open were grocery stores, convenience stores, rice
shops, and pharmacies.) Others were only permitted to travel beyond
their community with special permission.
Streets and neighborhoods in which COVID-infected people resided were
cordoned off. Since they were isolated, food and other supplies were
delivered to them. The Vietnamese mobilized its military to assist with
enforcing the curfew in HCMC and delivering supplies to people in
affected areas. In addition, medical personnel from the North were
assigned to the South to meet the steadily rising demand for patient care.
I live on the outskirts of Hanoi in a neighboring province and was only
able to enter the city if I had a valid reason, e.g., doctor’s
appointment. Many people were requested to have a quick COVID-19 test
performed at one of the checkpoints set up between my community and the
city. A negative result would allow that person to travel back and forth
for three days before having to take another test.
While most people couldn’t venture far from home, they were out in the
late afternoon and early evening exercising as the sun sinks lower on
the horizon and cooler temperatures prevail, walking, jogging, and
riding their bikes, all wearing masks without complaint.
As I wrote over the summer after an authorized drive through my adopted
hometown in /Hà Nội in the Fourth Wave/,
Hà Nội, City of Peace, you have faced far worse in your
millennia-long history – famine, war, poverty.
Lead the way!
To the life we knew and fervently dream of in the stifling time of COVID
Noisy, bustling, communal, productive
Imperfect yet satisfyingly normal.
My hopeful prediction came true just six weeks later.
*A COVID-19 Retrospective*
Last year’s short-lived lockdown, the result of the first wave of
COVID-19, seems quaint by comparison. Here are some thoughts and
reflections I shared with a local media outlet in December 2020.
One of the traits of the Vietnamese people that inspires me is their
optimism during challenging times and their ability to tap into the
collectivism that lurks beneath the cultural surface to defeat a
common enemy, in this case, an invisible one.
Although the lockdown only lasted only a short time, my memories of
the Covid-19 time are already shrouded in nostalgia. One day blended
into the next, as we all checked the latest information about
infection rates and went about our daily routine. Life was simple
and predictable. Leave home only when necessary and always take the
usual precautions. Working at home was not a hardship but rather a
welcome respite. No need to brave the heavy traffic; more time to
think, focus, and be productive in a variety of ways.
Like everyone else, I looked forward to the day when some semblance
of normality would return so that we could all enjoy life’s simple
pleasures again such as having a drink in a café or enjoying a meal
in a favorite restaurant. On my infrequent trips to Hanoi to run
some essential errands, I witnessed a once-in-a-lifetime spectacle.
This normally vibrant and bustling city of many millions was like a
ghost town. Virtually no traffic and few people on the streets was
reassuring because it meant that the coronavirus had no opportunity
to spread.
As March edged ever closer to April (2020), I knew that the economic
shutdown would soon end. That was our reward for limiting our
freedom of movement for the common good. That was the price that we
– as a collective – paid to protect ourselves and others from this
highly contagious and potentially fatal virus.
Those of us who live here, Vietnamese and foreigners alike, can be
grateful we live in a country whose leadership took decisive action
that showed concern for the health and welfare of the people.
Vietnam has rightfully been showered with international praise for
the way in which it has handled the coronavirus pandemic – in stark
contrast to other much wealthier countries.
Looking back, it wasn’t rocket science just basic science and smart
policy implementation that included adherence to preventive
measures, contact tracing, quarantine, and restriction on
international travel. The result was relatively few confirmed cases
of the coronavirus and no cases of community transmission since
April 16 (2020).
It is said that nothing reveals character, or a lack thereof, like a
crisis. Vietnam’s performance during this global pandemic and the
results, so far, speak for themselves.
The difference between then and now is two-fold: 1) the source is the
Delta variant, which means the danger is more imminent; and 2) the
number of infections is now exponentially higher.
While this is starting to change as the country opens up, virtually all
news coverage has been dedicated to COVID-19 and its multifaceted
implications, including heartrending tales of desperation and
heartwarming stories of charity and kindness. As with any crisis that
causes dire economic implications, it is the poor, including migrant
workers in and around HCMC, who have suffered the most.
One particularly hard-hit sector is tourism and hospitality, which
contributed about 9% to Vietnam’s GDP in the pre-COVID era in 2019. Only
a select group of foreigners, e.g., diplomats and those with special
permission, has entered the country since the government stopped issuing
visas in March 2020.
*Delta Variant as a Game Changer*
As it did with the initial arrival of COVID-19 on January 23, 2020,
Vietnam reacted quickly to the spike in new cases in late spring 2021
that heralded the fourth and most dangerous wave of the virus. Following
the path taken by other countries, the game changer in the latest battle
against the coronavirus was the Delta variant.
This mutation of the original COVID-19 virus is twice as contagious
<https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/variants/delta-variant.html>
as previous variants and may cause more severe illness than previous
strains. In two studies in Canada and Scotland, patients infected with
the Delta variant were more likely to be hospitalized than those with
Alpha or the original virus strain.
According to one study
<https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-01986-w> in China, the virus
was first detectable in a small sample of patients four days after
exposure, compared with an average of six days among people who had the
original strain. The conclusion is that Delta replicates much faster,
which makes it more infectious. More ominously, Delta had viral loads up
to 1,260 times higher than those infected with the original strain.
Nearly 75% of infections occurred during the presymptomatic phase,
according to another study
<https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02259-2>.
This excerpt from a July 3, 2021 article /The 3 Simple Rules That
Underscore the Danger of Delta/
<https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2021/07/3-principles-now-define-pandemic/619336/> that
appeared in /The/ /Atlantic/ articulates what many of us already knew
and zeroes in on the dilemma in which Vietnam finds itself:
Many nations that excelled at protecting their citizens are now
facing a triple threat: They controlled COVID-19 so well that they
have little natural immunity; they don’t have access to vaccines;
and they’re besieged by Delta. At the start of this year, Vietnam
had recorded just 1,500 COVID-19 cases—fewer than many individual
American prisons. But it is now facing a huge Delta-induced surge
when just 0.19 percent of its people have been fully vaccinated. If
even Vietnam, which so steadfastly held the line against COVID-19,
is now buckling under the weight of Delta, ‘it’s a sign that the
world may not have that much time,’ Dylan Morris, an evolutionary
biologist at UCLA, told me.
In other words, while the government and most citizens and expats did a
yeoman’s job
<https://e.vnexpress.net/news/perspectives/during-the-covid-19-pandemic-do-as-the-vietnamese-do-4072619.html>
of containing COVID-19 since Day One (January 23, 2020), which enabled
life to go on as usual, the clock was always ticking. Vietnam had to
obtain enough vaccine to begin inoculating people en masse, which proved
to be a tall order. The lack of supply, one of many vexing North-South
issues, combined with the highly contagious nature of the Delta variant,
are two of the factors that have resulted in a record number of
infections with a linear scale that pointed straight up for a time.
*Contributing Factors*
I recall the exact moment when the fourth wave began to build. It was
two days after a series of public events that my company organized in
April ending on the 16^th . I remember thinking how lucky we were that
the outbreaks didn’t start during the events, which probably would have
resulted in cancellations in the affected cities.
Colleagues often ask me how to explain the latest round of COVID-19.
Vietnam had been a poster country for COVID containment and control. In
the absence of a robust nationwide vaccination program, the fourth wave
was inevitable. Such is the nature of a virus-fueled pandemic.
In a spring 2021 meeting
<https://english.vov.vn/en/society/four-reasons-behind-fresh-wave-of-covid-19-infections-in-vietnam-855168.vov>
held in Hanoi, Tran Van Son, Minister-Chairman of the Government Office,
cited a number of reasons for the fourth wave. He noted that the main
reason is quarantine violations among legal entrants. In two cases, the
individuals had completed the mandatory quarantine period but, instead
of another two weeks of self-isolation at home, according to the rules,
they traveled to various locations and came into contact with a large
number of people, thereby transmitting the virus nationwide. The rule
that local agencies are supposed to continue monitoring their health
status has not been strictly enforced.
Another likely reason is illegal immigration, including Vietnamese and
Chinese citizens illegally crossing the border into Vietnam, some of
whom infected with COVID. This is a situation over which Vietnam has
limited control. It has long and porous borders with China (806 miles),
Cambodia (720 miles) and Laos (1342 miles) that people can illegally
cross for work, visits, and smuggling.
That may explain why HCMC, which is 83 miles from the Cambodian border,
was ground zero for the fourth wave. Equally important are the
previously mentioned factors of size and population density, and the
fact that the Delta variant is the main culprit. Vietnam has a
population of nearly 100 million living in an area slightly larger than
the US state of New Mexico.
This alarming statistic puts the public health dangers of illegal
immigration in stark perspective. In 2020, the Vietnam Border Guard
detailed more than 31,000 illegal entrants
<https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Vietnam>, including
25,000 from China. Just imagine how many entered Vietnam undetected and
how many of those imported COVID-19 into the country. If that figure is
10%, and 5% of those are COVID-positive; that amounts to 155 infected
people blending into the population undetected. On average
<https://theconversation.com/how-contagious-is-delta-how-long-are-you-infectious-is-it-more-deadly-a-quick-guide-to-the-latest-science-165538>,
someone infected with Delta infects five to eight others, meaning that
an initial group of 155 could conceivably spread the virus to as many as
1,240 people, and so on.
*Information Flow*
Information about the status of COVID-19 has come from a variety of
official and unofficial channels. The Ministry of Health provides
frequent updates via electronic and social media, including Vietnam’s
very own super app, Zalo. It has also overcome problems with multiple
contact tracing apps by consolidating them into one called PC-COVID, a
COVID Digital Pass that has a QR code scanning function, medical
declarations, and the account holder’s updated vaccination information.
Another requirement is to register at every business you enter by
scanning its QR code with your PC-COVID app. This is a way of tracking
people who are later identified as F0, i.e., infected with COVID-19. In
spite of the threat of fines for not following this procedure,
implementation is spotty, at best.
*Vaccinations Fueled by Public Health and Economic Considerations*
Vietnam’s vaccination program got off to a late start on March 8, 2021.
The following vaccines have been approved for use: Janssen, Moderna,
Pfizer-BioNTech, Oxford-AstraZeneca, Sinopharm (for emergency use), and
Sputnik V. The latest vaccine to be approved is Abdala, developed by
Vietnam’s Center for Genetic Engineering and Biotechnology. The goal is
to vaccinate 80% of the population of nearly 100 million by June 2022.
By mid-August, nearly 18 million vaccine doses had arrived, including
over 11 million AstraZeneca doses donated by Japan, Australia, the UK, 5
million doses of Moderna donated by the US, and 1.5 million doses of
Sinopharm from China. Vietnam is also well on its way to becoming a
vaccine producer of Russia’s Sputnik V vaccine.
The government also launched a $1.1 billion
<https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2021/08/11/delta-variant-outbreak-challenges-vietnams-covid-19-response-strategy/>
Vietnam Fund for Vaccination and Prevention of Coronavirus Disease to
obtain 120 million vaccine doses by the end of 2021. After issuing an
urgent request for public donations, the had received $180 million by
early June 2021 from more than 230,000 organizations, including Samsung
and Toyota, and private citizens.
As of July 24, 2021, 4.5 million vaccine doses had been administered. By
October 20^th , that number had skyrocketed to 69 million, the result of
large batches of vaccine being purchase on the world market and
donations from various governments, including Australia, China, Cuba,
US, France, Italy, South Korea, and the US, among many other countries.
By October 24^th , 52.5 million people, including expats, had received
at least one dose while nearly 21.5 million are fully vaccinated.
The Vietnam Fund, which now standards at $382 million
<https://e.vnexpress.net/news/news/vietnam-can-buy-covid-19-vaccines-for-all-citizens-4375064.html>,
is in addition to state-earmarked funds of $791 million, meaning that
Vietnam now has enough money to purchase vaccines needed to inoculate 75
million people, or 77% of its population.
Hanoi has already vaccinated around 98% of all adults, accounting for
70% of the total city with at least one Covid-19 vaccine shot. Nearly
50% have been fully vaccinated. The government expects to have a total
of 124 million doses available by the end of this year. Earlier this
month, the Ministry of Health has authorized the use of COVID-19
vaccines for children aged 12 to 17.
Aside from humanitarian reasons, foreign governments and companies have
donated hundreds of thousands or millions of doses of vaccine for
pragmatic reasons. For example, after US Vice President Kamala Harris’s
August trip from Singapore to Vietnam was delayed, China hastily sent a
diplomat to meet with Vietnam’s prime minister to offer 2 million
vaccines, twice as many as Harris and the US had promised.
Another self-interested reason for the donations is that Vietnam’s
economy plays a key role in the global supply chain ranging from several
components for Apple’s new iPhone 13 to Nike shoes. The only way
factories and other businesses will open is if more people are vaccinated.
Labor-intensive industries
<https://e.vnexpress.net/news/business/economy/hcmc-companies-hit-by-labor-shortage-4372734.html>
such as garment, footwear and leather, and commercial services are
facing a labor shortage. Before COVID-19, HCMC had nearly four million
laborers at more than 286,000 businesses, including 320,000 in export
processing zones, industrial parks and one high-tech park.
According to a survey conducted in early September involving 300
companies, only about 40% of their employees wanted to return to work
after October 1^st , the day the city reopened. Many returned to their
hometowns and don’t plan to return to work until after the 2022 Lunar
New Year in early February. (One silver lining for garment industry
workers is that their wages may rise because of a labor shortage.)
In spite of the economic damage inflicted by the fourth wave of
COVID-19, Vietnam’s GDP as an aggregate measure of economic activity is
predicted to grow by 3.8%
<https://e.vnexpress.net/news/business/data-speaks/vietnam-growth-to-be-highest-in-asean-5-imf-4372118.html>
this year, the highest rate among the five major Southeast Asian
economies that comprise ASEAN, which also includes Indonesia, Malaysia,
the Philippines, and Thailand. Last year, Vietnam recorded a 2.9% growth
rate while the other four countries experienced negative growth. This is
a credit to Vietnam’s ability to contain the coronavirus during the
first three waves.
*Vietnam Rises to the Challenge – Again*
During the summer lockdown in Hanoi, I was inspired, in manner of
speaking, to write a ditty about the fourth wave entitled /Got the COVID
Blues/
<https://markashwill.com/2021/10/02/got-the-covid-blues-lord-have-mercy-on-me/>.
In its own way it tells the story of Vietnam’s experience with this
pandemic from containment to a new and hopeful reality of living with
COVID until the vaccination program has run its course.
I’m workin’ from home in my gilded cage
Dreamin’ of travel in the post-COVID age
Coronavirus on the hunt again
Lookin’ for victims wherever it can
I’ve got the COVID blues, don’t you know what I mean
I’ve got the COVID blues, Lord, have mercy on me
Viet Nam, it did a bang-up job
Of kicking COVID’s ass from Hanoi to Saigon
But Delta Vari is back for more
Don’t give up ‘cause we’re still in a war
I’ve got the COVID blues, don’t you know what I mean
I’ve got the COVID blues, Lord, have mercy on me
The city’s locked down, we’re doing all we can
To stop the spread of this goddamn plague
Dreamin’ of the jab and the freedom it brings
Hope for better days when we’re back again
I’ve got the COVID blues, don’t you know what I mean
I’ve got the COVID blues, Lord, have mercy on me
The vaccination is our only hope
Moderna, Astra, Pfizer get us off the ropes
We’re countin’ on you to make us safe again
‘Cause we know in our hearts that it’s the only way
I’ve got the COVID blues, don’t you know what I mean
I’ve got the COVID blues, Lord, have mercy on me
The night is dark, but the dawn is bright
We’ve gotta stay strong and do what’s right
It’s almost over, just around the bend
COVID-19’s about to meet its end
We’ve got the COVID blues, don’t you know what I mean
We’ve got the Cô Vy* blues, Lord, have mercy on me
/You know what we need…/
(*“Cô Vy” is a play on words in Vietnamese. “Cô” means “Miss” and “Vy”
is a female name.)
The only way out, the golden bridge between a highly contagious virus
that is infecting thousands every day and a return to normality, is a
mass vaccination program in which a high percentage of the nation’s
citizens is vaccinated. This future success story will resolve three
important issues in one fell swoop: personal safety, economic recovery,
and continued political stability.
One delightful result of the return to relative normality is an
explosion of wedding parties
<https://e.vnexpress.net/news/life/trend/hanoi-sees-mad-rush-down-wedding-aisle-as-covid-restrictions-ease-4374826.html>.
The owner of a wedding planning company in Hanoi exclaimed, “It feels
like the whole of Hanoi is getting married on October 15^th and 24^th .”
It’s a release of pent-up demand but also an illustration of the idiom,
“Strike while the iron is hot,” not knowing if further restrictions will
be necessary.
Since the August 2021 take-off phase of vaccinations, the Vietnamese
people and the relatively few expats who call Vietnam home are getting
exactly what they need. While the fat lady has yet to sing, Vietnam has
so far risen to the challenge of the fourth wave with its usual
perseverance and determination.
/Mark A. Ashwill is an international educator who has lived in Vietnam
since 2005. He is an associate member of Veterans for Peace Chapter 160.
Ashwill blogs at An International Educator in Viet Nam
<https://markashwill.com/> and can be reached at markashwill at hotmail.com./
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