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<h1 class="gmail-reader-title">The Latest Chapter in Vietnam’s
Valiant Battle Against the Delta Variant</h1>
<span class="gmail-post_author_intro">by</span> <span
class="gmail-post_author"><a
href="https://www.counterpunch.org/author/mark-ashwill/"
rel="nofollow" moz-do-not-send="true">Mark Ashwill</a></span>
- October 28, 2021<br>
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<p><img aria-describedby="caption-attachment-219461"
src="https://www.counterpunch.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Screen-Shot-2021-10-25-at-11.52.14-AM-680x371.png"
alt="" style="margin-right: 0px;"
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<p id="gmail-caption-attachment-219461"
class="gmail-wp-caption-text">Hoan Kiem Lake in the
heart of Hanoi during the lockdown. Photo: Mark
Ashwill.</p>
</div>
<blockquote>
<p>The hectic, sun-drenched streets of the capital
have fallen silent<br>
<em>In the middle of the day</em><br>
The empty parks surrounded by yellow ribbons that
exclaim,<br>
<em>Keep out</em>!</p>
<p>Shuttered stores and barricaded neighborhoods<br>
Livelihoods diminished; plans put on hold; dreams
deferred<br>
Masked people shuffling around like otherworldly
figures<br>
Waiting patiently, resolutely, and with steely
determination</p>
<p><a
href="https://markashwill.com/2021/09/24/ha-noi-in-the-fourth-wave-a-heartfelt-wish-a-hopeful-prediction/"
moz-do-not-send="true"><em>Hà Nội in the Fourth
Wave</em></a><em>: A Heartfelt Wish & a
Hopeful Prediction</em> (MAA)</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Known the world over as a bustling country filled
with optimistic and hard-working people, Vietnam
suddenly became an eerily quiet and serene place after
the fourth wave of COVID-19 crashed on its shores. The
country and its people were confronted with the most
acute public health crisis since the end of the US war
in 1975. Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC) and neighboring
provinces remain the epicenter of the fourth wave with
the lion’s share of infections and deaths to date,
most of which have occurred since last spring.</p>
<p>The good news is that most Vietnamese and expats are
beginning to bask in the light at the end of tunnel.
To the collective relief of a combined total of 15
million souls in HCMC and Hanoi, most of the <a
href="https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/vietnam-capital-hanoi-ease-coronavirus-curbs-this-week-2021-09-20/"
moz-do-not-send="true">lockdown restrictions</a>
were lifted on October 1<sup>st</sup> in the former
and the third week of September in the latter.</p>
<p>A comparison of the number of new cases in August vs.
October 2021 illustrates the dramatic progress that is
being made on a daily basis. On August 27th, Vietnam
confirmed a single-day record of 17,409 new cases and
a one-week average of 12,431. By contrast, the one-day
increase for October 26th was 3,592 new cases and a
one-week average of 3,690.</p>
<p>As of October 27<sup>th</sup>, there was a cumulative
nationwide total of 896,174 confirmed cases, of whom
810,290 (90%) patients have recovered, and 21,802
deaths, according to the Vietnam Ministry of Health.</p>
<p>While these numbers pale in comparison to countries
like Brazil, Canada, India, Italy, the US, and Russia,
the concern from the outset was to contain the virus,
a goal that Vietnam achieved, and now to create
immunity through mass vaccinations, because of
population density and the nation’s fragile healthcare
system.</p>
<p><strong>Life Under Lockdown </strong></p>
<p>HCMC was under lockdown for three months. In the
North, which has had far fewer infections, Hanoi’s
lockdown, the government’s attempt to err on the side
of caution, lasted for two months. People were only
supposed to leave their homes to purchase necessities
in their neighborhoods. (The only businesses open were
grocery stores, convenience stores, rice shops, and
pharmacies.) Others were only permitted to travel
beyond their community with special permission.</p>
<p>Streets and neighborhoods in which COVID-infected
people resided were cordoned off. Since they were
isolated, food and other supplies were delivered to
them. The Vietnamese mobilized its military to assist
with enforcing the curfew in HCMC and delivering
supplies to people in affected areas. In addition,
medical personnel from the North were assigned to the
South to meet the steadily rising demand for patient
care.</p>
<p>I live on the outskirts of Hanoi in a neighboring
province and was only able to enter the city if I had
a valid reason, e.g., doctor’s appointment. Many
people were requested to have a quick COVID-19 test
performed at one of the checkpoints set up between my
community and the city. A negative result would allow
that person to travel back and forth for three days
before having to take another test.</p>
<p>While most people couldn’t venture far from home,
they were out in the late afternoon and early evening
exercising as the sun sinks lower on the horizon and
cooler temperatures prevail, walking, jogging, and
riding their bikes, all wearing masks without
complaint.</p>
<p>As I wrote over the summer after an authorized drive
through my adopted hometown in <em>Hà Nội in the
Fourth Wave</em>,</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Hà Nội, City of Peace, you have faced far worse in
your millennia-long history – famine, war, poverty.</p>
<p>Lead the way!</p>
<p>To the life we knew and fervently dream of in the
stifling time of COVID</p>
<p>Noisy, bustling, communal, productive<br>
Imperfect yet satisfyingly normal.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>My hopeful prediction came true just six weeks later.</p>
<p><strong>A COVID-19 Retrospective</strong></p>
<p>Last year’s short-lived lockdown, the result of the
first wave of COVID-19, seems quaint by comparison.
Here are some thoughts and reflections I shared with a
local media outlet in December 2020.</p>
<blockquote>
<p>One of the traits of the Vietnamese people that
inspires me is their optimism during challenging
times and their ability to tap into the collectivism
that lurks beneath the cultural surface to defeat a
common enemy, in this case, an invisible one.</p>
<p>Although the lockdown only lasted only a short
time, my memories of the Covid-19 time are already
shrouded in nostalgia. One day blended into the
next, as we all checked the latest information about
infection rates and went about our daily routine.
Life was simple and predictable. Leave home only
when necessary and always take the usual
precautions. Working at home was not a hardship but
rather a welcome respite. No need to brave the heavy
traffic; more time to think, focus, and be
productive in a variety of ways.</p>
<p>Like everyone else, I looked forward to the day
when some semblance of normality would return so
that we could all enjoy life’s simple pleasures
again such as having a drink in a café or enjoying a
meal in a favorite restaurant. On my infrequent
trips to Hanoi to run some essential errands, I
witnessed a once-in-a-lifetime spectacle. This
normally vibrant and bustling city of many millions
was like a ghost town. Virtually no traffic and few
people on the streets was reassuring because it
meant that the coronavirus had no opportunity to
spread.</p>
<p>As March edged ever closer to April (2020), I knew
that the economic shutdown would soon end. That was
our reward for limiting our freedom of movement for
the common good. That was the price that we – as a
collective – paid to protect ourselves and others
from this highly contagious and potentially fatal
virus.</p>
<p>Those of us who live here, Vietnamese and
foreigners alike, can be grateful we live in a
country whose leadership took decisive action that
showed concern for the health and welfare of the
people. Vietnam has rightfully been showered with
international praise for the way in which it has
handled the coronavirus pandemic – in stark contrast
to other much wealthier countries.</p>
<p>Looking back, it wasn’t rocket science just basic
science and smart policy implementation that
included adherence to preventive measures, contact
tracing, quarantine, and restriction on
international travel. The result was relatively few
confirmed cases of the coronavirus and no cases of
community transmission since April 16 (2020).</p>
<p>It is said that nothing reveals character, or a
lack thereof, like a crisis. Vietnam’s performance
during this global pandemic and the results, so far,
speak for themselves.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The difference between then and now is two-fold: 1)
the source is the Delta variant, which means the
danger is more imminent; and 2) the number of
infections is now exponentially higher.</p>
<p>While this is starting to change as the country opens
up, virtually all news coverage has been dedicated to
COVID-19 and its multifaceted implications, including
heartrending tales of desperation and heartwarming
stories of charity and kindness. As with any crisis
that causes dire economic implications, it is the
poor, including migrant workers in and around HCMC,
who have suffered the most.</p>
<p>One particularly hard-hit sector is tourism and
hospitality, which contributed about 9% to Vietnam’s
GDP in the pre-COVID era in 2019. Only a select group
of foreigners, e.g., diplomats and those with special
permission, has entered the country since the
government stopped issuing visas in March 2020.</p>
<p><strong>Delta Variant as a Game Changer</strong></p>
<p>As it did with the initial arrival of COVID-19 on
January 23, 2020, Vietnam reacted quickly to the spike
in new cases in late spring 2021 that heralded the
fourth and most dangerous wave of the virus. Following
the path taken by other countries, the game changer in
the latest battle against the coronavirus was the
Delta variant.</p>
<p>This mutation of the original COVID-19 virus is <a
href="https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/variants/delta-variant.html"
moz-do-not-send="true">twice as contagious</a> as
previous variants and may cause more severe illness
than previous strains. In two studies in Canada and
Scotland, patients infected with the Delta variant
were more likely to be hospitalized than those with
Alpha or the original virus strain.</p>
<p>According to <a
href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-01986-w"
moz-do-not-send="true">one study</a> in China, the
virus was first detectable in a small sample of
patients four days after exposure, compared with an
average of six days among people who had the original
strain. The conclusion is that Delta replicates much
faster, which makes it more infectious. More
ominously, Delta had viral loads up to 1,260 times
higher than those infected with the original strain.
Nearly 75% of infections occurred during the
presymptomatic phase, according to <a
href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02259-2"
moz-do-not-send="true">another study</a>.</p>
<p>This excerpt from a July 3, 2021 article <a
href="https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2021/07/3-principles-now-define-pandemic/619336/"
moz-do-not-send="true"><em>The 3 Simple Rules That
Underscore the Danger of Delta</em></a> that
appeared in <em>The</em> <em>Atlantic</em> articulates
what many of us already knew and zeroes in on the
dilemma in which Vietnam finds itself:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Many nations that excelled at protecting their
citizens are now facing a triple threat: They
controlled COVID-19 so well that they have little
natural immunity; they don’t have access to
vaccines; and they’re besieged by Delta. At the
start of this year, Vietnam had recorded just 1,500
COVID-19 cases—fewer than many individual American
prisons. But it is now facing a huge Delta-induced
surge when just 0.19 percent of its people have been
fully vaccinated. If even Vietnam, which so
steadfastly held the line against COVID-19, is now
buckling under the weight of Delta, ‘it’s a sign
that the world may not have that much time,’ Dylan
Morris, an evolutionary biologist at UCLA, told me.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>In other words, while the government and most
citizens and expats did a <a
href="https://e.vnexpress.net/news/perspectives/during-the-covid-19-pandemic-do-as-the-vietnamese-do-4072619.html"
moz-do-not-send="true">yeoman’s job</a> of
containing COVID-19 since Day One (January 23, 2020),
which enabled life to go on as usual, the clock was
always ticking. Vietnam had to obtain enough vaccine
to begin inoculating people en masse, which proved to
be a tall order. The lack of supply, one of many
vexing North-South issues, combined with the highly
contagious nature of the Delta variant, are two of the
factors that have resulted in a record number of
infections with a linear scale that pointed straight
up for a time.</p>
<p><strong>Contributing Factors</strong></p>
<p>I recall the exact moment when the fourth wave began
to build. It was two days after a series of public
events that my company organized in April ending on
the 16<sup>th</sup>. I remember thinking how lucky we
were that the outbreaks didn’t start during the
events, which probably would have resulted in
cancellations in the affected cities.</p>
<p>Colleagues often ask me how to explain the latest
round of COVID-19. Vietnam had been a poster country
for COVID containment and control. In the absence of a
robust nationwide vaccination program, the fourth wave
was inevitable. Such is the nature of a virus-fueled
pandemic.</p>
<p>In a <a
href="https://english.vov.vn/en/society/four-reasons-behind-fresh-wave-of-covid-19-infections-in-vietnam-855168.vov"
moz-do-not-send="true">spring 2021 meeting</a> held
in Hanoi, Tran Van Son, Minister-Chairman of the
Government Office, cited a number of reasons for the
fourth wave. He noted that the main reason is
quarantine violations among legal entrants. In two
cases, the individuals had completed the mandatory
quarantine period but, instead of another two weeks of
self-isolation at home, according to the rules, they
traveled to various locations and came into contact
with a large number of people, thereby transmitting
the virus nationwide. The rule that local agencies are
supposed to continue monitoring their health status
has not been strictly enforced.</p>
<p>Another likely reason is illegal immigration,
including Vietnamese and Chinese citizens illegally
crossing the border into Vietnam, some of whom
infected with COVID. This is a situation over which
Vietnam has limited control. It has long and porous
borders with China (806 miles), Cambodia (720 miles)
and Laos (1342 miles) that people can illegally cross
for work, visits, and smuggling.</p>
<p>That may explain why HCMC, which is 83 miles from the
Cambodian border, was ground zero for the fourth wave.
Equally important are the previously mentioned factors
of size and population density, and the fact that the
Delta variant is the main culprit. Vietnam has a
population of nearly 100 million living in an area
slightly larger than the US state of New Mexico.</p>
<p>This alarming statistic puts the public health
dangers of illegal immigration in stark perspective.
In 2020, the Vietnam Border Guard detailed more than <a
href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Vietnam"
moz-do-not-send="true">31,000 illegal entrants</a>,
including 25,000 from China. Just imagine how many
entered Vietnam undetected and how many of those
imported COVID-19 into the country. If that figure is
10%, and 5% of those are COVID-positive; that amounts
to 155 infected people blending into the population
undetected. <a
href="https://theconversation.com/how-contagious-is-delta-how-long-are-you-infectious-is-it-more-deadly-a-quick-guide-to-the-latest-science-165538"
moz-do-not-send="true">On average</a>, someone
infected with Delta infects five to eight others,
meaning that an initial group of 155 could conceivably
spread the virus to as many as 1,240 people, and so
on.</p>
<p><strong>Information Flow</strong></p>
<p>Information about the status of COVID-19 has come
from a variety of official and unofficial channels.
The Ministry of Health provides frequent updates via
electronic and social media, including Vietnam’s very
own super app, Zalo. It has also overcome problems
with multiple contact tracing apps by consolidating
them into one called PC-COVID, a COVID Digital Pass
that has a QR code scanning function, medical
declarations, and the account holder’s updated
vaccination information.</p>
<p>Another requirement is to register at every business
you enter by scanning its QR code with your PC-COVID
app. This is a way of tracking people who are later
identified as F0, i.e., infected with COVID-19. In
spite of the threat of fines for not following this
procedure, implementation is spotty, at best.</p>
<p><strong>Vaccinations Fueled by Public Health and
Economic Considerations</strong></p>
<p>Vietnam’s vaccination program got off to a late start
on March 8, 2021. The following vaccines have been
approved for use: Janssen, Moderna, Pfizer-BioNTech,
Oxford-AstraZeneca, Sinopharm (for emergency use), and
Sputnik V. The latest vaccine to be approved is
Abdala, developed by Vietnam’s Center for Genetic
Engineering and Biotechnology. The goal is to
vaccinate 80% of the population of nearly 100 million
by June 2022.</p>
<p>By mid-August, nearly 18 million vaccine doses had
arrived, including over 11 million AstraZeneca doses
donated by Japan, Australia, the UK, 5 million doses
of Moderna donated by the US, and 1.5 million doses of
Sinopharm from China. Vietnam is also well on its way
to becoming a vaccine producer of Russia’s Sputnik V
vaccine.</p>
<p>The government also launched a <a
href="https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2021/08/11/delta-variant-outbreak-challenges-vietnams-covid-19-response-strategy/"
moz-do-not-send="true">$1.1 billion</a> Vietnam Fund
for Vaccination and Prevention of Coronavirus Disease
to obtain 120 million vaccine doses by the end of
2021. After issuing an urgent request for public
donations, the had received $180 million by early June
2021 from more than 230,000 organizations, including
Samsung and Toyota, and private citizens.</p>
<p>As of July 24, 2021, 4.5 million vaccine doses had
been administered. By October 20<sup>th</sup>, that
number had skyrocketed to 69 million, the result of
large batches of vaccine being purchase on the world
market and donations from various governments,
including Australia, China, Cuba, US, France, Italy,
South Korea, and the US, among many other countries.
By October 24<sup>th</sup>, 52.5 million people,
including expats, had received at least one dose while
nearly 21.5 million are fully vaccinated.</p>
<p>The Vietnam Fund, which now standards at <a
href="https://e.vnexpress.net/news/news/vietnam-can-buy-covid-19-vaccines-for-all-citizens-4375064.html"
moz-do-not-send="true">$382 million</a>, is in
addition to state-earmarked funds of $791 million,
meaning that Vietnam now has enough money to purchase
vaccines needed to inoculate 75 million people, or 77%
of its population.</p>
<p>Hanoi has already vaccinated around 98% of all
adults, accounting for 70% of the total city with at
least one Covid-19 vaccine shot. Nearly 50% have been
fully vaccinated. The government expects to have a
total of 124 million doses available by the end of
this year. Earlier this month, the Ministry of Health
has authorized the use of COVID-19 vaccines for
children aged 12 to 17.</p>
<p>Aside from humanitarian reasons, foreign governments
and companies have donated hundreds of thousands or
millions of doses of vaccine for pragmatic reasons.
For example, after US Vice President Kamala Harris’s
August trip from Singapore to Vietnam was delayed,
China hastily sent a diplomat to meet with Vietnam’s
prime minister to offer 2 million vaccines, twice as
many as Harris and the US had promised.</p>
<p>Another self-interested reason for the donations is
that Vietnam’s economy plays a key role in the global
supply chain ranging from several components for
Apple’s new iPhone 13 to Nike shoes. The only way
factories and other businesses will open is if more
people are vaccinated.</p>
<p><a
href="https://e.vnexpress.net/news/business/economy/hcmc-companies-hit-by-labor-shortage-4372734.html"
moz-do-not-send="true">Labor-intensive industries</a>
such as garment, footwear and leather, and commercial
services are facing a labor shortage. Before COVID-19,
HCMC had nearly four million laborers at more than
286,000 businesses, including 320,000 in export
processing zones, industrial parks and one high-tech
park.</p>
<p>According to a survey conducted in early September
involving 300 companies, only about 40% of their
employees wanted to return to work after October 1<sup>st</sup>,
the day the city reopened. Many returned to their
hometowns and don’t plan to return to work until after
the 2022 Lunar New Year in early February. (One silver
lining for garment industry workers is that their
wages may rise because of a labor shortage.)</p>
<p>In spite of the economic damage inflicted by the
fourth wave of COVID-19, Vietnam’s GDP as an aggregate
measure of economic activity is predicted to grow by <a
href="https://e.vnexpress.net/news/business/data-speaks/vietnam-growth-to-be-highest-in-asean-5-imf-4372118.html"
moz-do-not-send="true">3.8%</a> this year, the
highest rate among the five major Southeast Asian
economies that comprise ASEAN, which also includes
Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand.
Last year, Vietnam recorded a 2.9% growth rate while
the other four countries experienced negative growth.
This is a credit to Vietnam’s ability to contain the
coronavirus during the first three waves.</p>
<p><strong>Vietnam Rises to the Challenge – Again</strong></p>
<p>During the summer lockdown in Hanoi, I was inspired,
in manner of speaking, to write a ditty about the
fourth wave entitled <a
href="https://markashwill.com/2021/10/02/got-the-covid-blues-lord-have-mercy-on-me/"
moz-do-not-send="true"><em>Got the COVID Blues</em></a>.
In its own way it tells the story of Vietnam’s
experience with this pandemic from containment to a
new and hopeful reality of living with COVID until the
vaccination program has run its course.</p>
<blockquote>
<p>I’m workin’ from home in my gilded cage<br>
Dreamin’ of travel in the post-COVID age<br>
Coronavirus on the hunt again<br>
Lookin’ for victims wherever it can<br>
I’ve got the COVID blues, don’t you know what I mean<br>
I’ve got the COVID blues, Lord, have mercy on me<br>
Viet Nam, it did a bang-up job<br>
Of kicking COVID’s ass from Hanoi to Saigon<br>
But Delta Vari is back for more<br>
Don’t give up ‘cause we’re still in a war<br>
I’ve got the COVID blues, don’t you know what I mean<br>
I’ve got the COVID blues, Lord, have mercy on me<br>
The city’s locked down, we’re doing all we can<br>
To stop the spread of this goddamn plague<br>
Dreamin’ of the jab and the freedom it brings<br>
Hope for better days when we’re back again<br>
I’ve got the COVID blues, don’t you know what I mean<br>
I’ve got the COVID blues, Lord, have mercy on me<br>
The vaccination is our only hope<br>
Moderna, Astra, Pfizer get us off the ropes<br>
We’re countin’ on you to make us safe again<br>
‘Cause we know in our hearts that it’s the only way<br>
I’ve got the COVID blues, don’t you know what I mean<br>
I’ve got the COVID blues, Lord, have mercy on me<br>
The night is dark, but the dawn is bright<br>
We’ve gotta stay strong and do what’s right<br>
It’s almost over, just around the bend<br>
COVID-19’s about to meet its end<br>
We’ve got the COVID blues, don’t you know what I
mean<br>
We’ve got the Cô Vy* blues, Lord, have mercy on me<br>
<em>You know what we need…</em></p>
</blockquote>
<p>(*“Cô Vy” is a play on words in Vietnamese. “Cô”
means “Miss” and “Vy” is a female name.)</p>
<p>The only way out, the golden bridge between a highly
contagious virus that is infecting thousands every day
and a return to normality, is a mass vaccination
program in which a high percentage of the nation’s
citizens is vaccinated. This future success story will
resolve three important issues in one fell swoop:
personal safety, economic recovery, and continued
political stability.</p>
<p>One delightful result of the return to relative
normality is an explosion of <a
href="https://e.vnexpress.net/news/life/trend/hanoi-sees-mad-rush-down-wedding-aisle-as-covid-restrictions-ease-4374826.html"
moz-do-not-send="true">wedding parties</a>. The
owner of a wedding planning company in Hanoi
exclaimed, “It feels like the whole of Hanoi is
getting married on October 15<sup>th</sup> and 24<sup>th</sup>.”
It’s a release of pent-up demand but also an
illustration of the idiom, “Strike while the iron is
hot,” not knowing if further restrictions will be
necessary.</p>
<p>Since the August 2021 take-off phase of vaccinations,
the Vietnamese people and the relatively few expats
who call Vietnam home are getting exactly what they
need. While the fat lady has yet to sing, Vietnam has
so far risen to the challenge of the fourth wave with
its usual perseverance and determination.</p>
</div>
<p> <em>Mark A. Ashwill is an international educator who
has lived in Vietnam since 2005. He is an associate
member of Veterans for Peace Chapter 160. Ashwill
blogs at <a href="https://markashwill.com/"
moz-do-not-send="true">An International Educator in
Viet Nam</a> and can be reached at <a
href="mailto:markashwill@hotmail.com"
moz-do-not-send="true" class="moz-txt-link-freetext">markashwill@hotmail.com</a>.</em>
</p>
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