[News] Venezuela: A Diplomatic Coup?

[Anti-Imperialist News]

https://venezuelanalysis.com/analysis/14317


  Venezuela: A Diplomatic Coup?

By Paul Dobson - February 11, 2019
------------------------------------------------------------------------

Many living outside of Venezuela have been following the ongoing 
attempted coup d’etat <https://venezuelanalysis.com/analysis/14304> with 
fully deserved attention.

Not only does it set a worrying precedent of blunt-edged US meddling in 
the region, but it also runs against the Venezuelan Constitution and 
local laws. The recognition of an unelected leader by a host of 
governments also clearly violates the cornerstone of international law, 
including the United Nations and Organisation of American States 
charters, as well as foundational principles safeguarding countries’ 
right to sovereignty and self-determination.

The revelations of how Juan Guaido has achieved recognition 
<https://venezuelanalysis.com/news/14295> from 25 percent of the world’s 
governments <https://venezuelanalysis.com/analysis/14303> have made 
plenty of headlines, as mainstream media shines 
<https://venezuelanalysis.com/analysis/14309>once again with its 
manipulation and distortion, describing the unelected coup-mongers as 
“democratic” and the elected president as a “dictator”.

But, given grandiose claims of parallel governments, social upheaval, 
and a new start for Venezuela being repeated across the MSM, one of the 
key questions that everyone is asking is: What's going on within 
Venezuela itself?

The answer, however, is not much.

The Venezuelan streets are calm (for now). Shops are opening, people are 
going to work, to school, going about their business of trying to 
survive the harsh economic recession and find money to pay prices which 
seem to increase every day.

Little has changed since January 23 
<https://venezuelanalysis.com/news/14244> within Venezuelan life. The 
buses still run inefficiently, there are still long queues to get cash 
at the banks and there still are power cuts. We even saw another violent 
attack by landlord-paid mercenaries 
<https://twitter.com/ClasistaAbreu/status/1092442119179026432>against 
Chavista campesinos last week, an unfortunate trademark of the past few 
years.

Breaking the day-to-day doldrum and to reinforce their side of the 
debate, both the opposition and Chavismo have held marches 
<https://venezuelanalysis.com/news/14282>. Guaido’s followers held one 
major rally since he proclaimed himself president, while pro-government 
forces also held a large rally the same day, and have been holding 
regional protests against the coup almost every day throughout the 
provinces.

Apart from the isolated outbreaks of violent protests during the evening 
of January 23 and the couple of days following, which were largely led 
by hard-right forces, thankfully no more major incidents of public 
disorder have been reported.

Conspicuously absent are any of the tell-tale signs of a genuine power 
shift that might indicate that the government is about to fall.

Public offices have not replaced photos of Nicolas Maduro and Hugo 
Chavez withthose of Juan Guaido and Donald Trump. Official documents 
have not stopped using the “Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela” headed 
paper instead of the “Republic of Venezuela” as Guaido’s followers are 
promoting. No military barracks have replaced the eight-starred flag 
with it’s seven starred predecessor 
<https://www.enchantedlearning.com/southamerica/venezuela/flag/>.

Venezuelans know a thing or two about coup d’etats, with 2002 still 
fresh in the memory. For 47 hours, the 2002 coup bought about a clear 
shift in the power dynamics in the country. As part of the current 
attempted coup, no such shift has been seen either in Caracas or even in 
the most anti-government regions such as the east of Caracas, Merida and 
Tachira states, and Maracaibo City

Unlike in 2002, no political or community leaders are taking refuge in 
government buildings under siege from right wing forces. Likewise, 
unlike in that fateful year, no leading government officials have been 
kidnapped by fascist thugs, no allied foreign embassies are under 
attack, and no Chavistas are being persecuted, hunted down or dragged 
onto the streets.

Even the violent insurrectional street protests of 2013 
<https://venezuelanalysis.com/news/8652>, 2014 
<https://venezuelanalysis.com/analysis/11211>and 2017 
<https://venezuelanalysis.com/news/13396>– all sparked by hard-right 
leaders with the objective of overthrowing the democratically elected 
government of Maduro – smelled more of a genuine power shift in the 
country, especially in the opposition strongholds. Along with 2002, the 
Bolivarian process survived all of these attempts.

Unlike in 2014, in the latest attempt to oust the government, thankfully 
no barricades have been set up, no homes have been burnt, no 
motorcyclists have been beheaded by wires strung across the streets and 
no one is hunting down the Cuban doctors accusing them of being military 
spies, as occured in 2013.

Rather, there is an eerie calm in Venezuela right now, which, to anyone 
who is cut off from the heated struggles in the diplomatic arena, would 
suggest that nothing has happened at all.

For the most part, Chavista organisations are preparing themselves 
physically, organisationally, mentally, and ideologically for potential 
battles to come.

Opposition supporters are waiting with great expectation for the new 
golden boy to deliver on his promise.

But life (and recession) continues.

Conclusion? Beyond shaking up a number of international relations, the 
man whose name 81 percent of Venezuelans didn't even know one month ago 
<http://vtv.gob.ve/hinterlaces-81-venezolanos-desconoce-a-guaido-como-lider-politico/> 
has not managed to spur the country into the sort of popular action at 
all levels of society which he probably needs to make this attempted 
coup a reality. A handful of well-supported marches do not topple a 
government, even if Washington and the mainstream press say it does.

The lack of domestic power struggles such as those seen in past years, 
symbolic or otherwise, is a clear sign that at least here in Venezuela, 
Guaido is without the tools, grassroots organisation, or even the 
popular support needed to achieve his objectives.

Guaido’s international backing is his greatest tool, and it is 
concerning that he may have to rely on foreign economic and/or military 
pressure to compensate for his domestic shortcomings, which may only 
spell bloodshed and further economic crisis for ordinary Venezuelans. As 
such, whilst this is without a doubt an attempted coup d'état, for now, 
it is only a diplomatic coup.

-- 
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