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<div class="header reader-header reader-show-element" dir="ltr"> <font
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href="https://venezuelanalysis.com/analysis/14317">https://venezuelanalysis.com/analysis/14317</a></font>
<h1 class="reader-title">Venezuela: A Diplomatic Coup?</h1>
<div class="credits reader-credits">By Paul Dobson - February
11, 2019<br>
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<p>Many living outside of Venezuela have been
following the ongoing attempted <a
href="https://venezuelanalysis.com/analysis/14304">coup
d’etat</a> with fully deserved attention.</p>
<p>Not only does it set a worrying precedent
of blunt-edged US meddling in the region,
but it also runs against the Venezuelan
Constitution and local laws. The recognition
of an unelected leader by a host of
governments also clearly violates the
cornerstone of international law, including
the United Nations and Organisation of
American States charters, as well as
foundational principles safeguarding
countries’ right to sovereignty and
self-determination.</p>
<p>The revelations of how Juan Guaido has <a
href="https://venezuelanalysis.com/news/14295">achieved recognition</a>
from <a
href="https://venezuelanalysis.com/analysis/14303">25
percent of the world’s governments</a>
have made plenty of headlines, as mainstream
media <a
href="https://venezuelanalysis.com/analysis/14309">shines
</a>once again with its manipulation and
distortion, describing the unelected
coup-mongers as “democratic” and the elected
president as a “dictator”.</p>
<p>But, given grandiose claims of parallel
governments, social upheaval, and a new
start for Venezuela being repeated across
the MSM, one of the key questions that
everyone is asking is: What's going on
within Venezuela itself?</p>
<p>The answer, however, is not much.</p>
<p>The Venezuelan streets are calm (for now).
Shops are opening, people are going to work,
to school, going about their business of
trying to survive the harsh economic
recession and find money to pay prices which
seem to increase every day.</p>
<p>Little has changed since <a
href="https://venezuelanalysis.com/news/14244">January
23</a> within Venezuelan life. The buses
still run inefficiently, there are still
long queues to get cash at the banks and
there still are power cuts. We even saw
another <a
href="https://twitter.com/ClasistaAbreu/status/1092442119179026432">violent
attack by landlord-paid mercenaries </a>against
Chavista campesinos last week, an
unfortunate trademark of the past few years.</p>
<p>Breaking the day-to-day doldrum and to
reinforce their side of the debate, both the
opposition and Chavismo have held <a
href="https://venezuelanalysis.com/news/14282">marches</a>.
Guaido’s followers held one major rally
since he proclaimed himself president, while
pro-government forces also held a large
rally the same day, and have been holding
regional protests against the coup almost
every day throughout the provinces.</p>
<p>Apart from the isolated outbreaks of
violent protests during the evening of
January 23 and the couple of days following,
which were largely led by hard-right forces,
thankfully no more major incidents of public
disorder have been reported.</p>
<p>Conspicuously absent are any of the
tell-tale signs of a genuine power shift
that might indicate that the government is
about to fall.</p>
<p>Public offices have not replaced photos of
Nicolas Maduro and Hugo Chavez withthose of
Juan Guaido and Donald Trump. Official
documents have not stopped using the
“Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela” headed
paper instead of the “Republic of Venezuela”
as Guaido’s followers are promoting. No
military barracks have replaced the <a
href="https://www.enchantedlearning.com/southamerica/venezuela/flag/">eight-starred
flag with it’s seven starred predecessor</a>.</p>
<p>Venezuelans know a thing or two about coup
d’etats, with 2002 still fresh in the
memory. For 47 hours, the 2002 coup bought
about a clear shift in the power dynamics in
the country. As part of the current
attempted coup, no such shift has been seen
either in Caracas or even in the most
anti-government regions such as the east of
Caracas, Merida and Tachira states, and
Maracaibo City</p>
<p>Unlike in 2002, no political or community
leaders are taking refuge in government
buildings under siege from right wing
forces. Likewise, unlike in that fateful
year, no leading government officials have
been kidnapped by fascist thugs, no allied
foreign embassies are under attack, and no
Chavistas are being persecuted, hunted down
or dragged onto the streets.</p>
<p>Even the violent insurrectional street
protests of <a
href="https://venezuelanalysis.com/news/8652">2013</a>,
<a
href="https://venezuelanalysis.com/analysis/11211">2014
</a>and <a
href="https://venezuelanalysis.com/news/13396">2017
</a>– all sparked by hard-right leaders with
the objective of overthrowing the
democratically elected government of Maduro
– smelled more of a genuine power shift in
the country, especially in the opposition
strongholds. Along with 2002, the Bolivarian
process survived all of these attempts.</p>
<p>Unlike in 2014, in the latest attempt to
oust the government, thankfully no
barricades have been set up, no homes have
been burnt, no motorcyclists have been
beheaded by wires strung across the streets
and no one is hunting down the Cuban doctors
accusing them of being military spies, as
occured in 2013.</p>
<p>Rather, there is an eerie calm in Venezuela
right now, which, to anyone who is cut off
from the heated struggles in the diplomatic
arena, would suggest that nothing has
happened at all.</p>
<p>For the most part, Chavista organisations
are preparing themselves physically,
organisationally, mentally, and
ideologically for potential battles to come.</p>
<p>Opposition supporters are waiting with
great expectation for the new golden boy to
deliver on his promise.</p>
<p>But life (and recession) continues.</p>
<p>Conclusion? Beyond shaking up a number of
international relations, the man whose name
81 percent of Venezuelans <a
href="http://vtv.gob.ve/hinterlaces-81-venezolanos-desconoce-a-guaido-como-lider-politico/">didn't
even know one month ago</a> has not
managed to spur the country into the sort of
popular action at all levels of society
which he probably needs to make this
attempted coup a reality. A handful of
well-supported marches do not topple a
government, even if Washington and the
mainstream press say it does.</p>
<p>The lack of domestic power struggles such
as those seen in past years, symbolic or
otherwise, is a clear sign that at least
here in Venezuela, Guaido is without the
tools, grassroots organisation, or even the
popular support needed to achieve his
objectives.</p>
<p>Guaido’s international backing is his
greatest tool, and it is concerning that he
may have to rely on foreign economic and/or
military pressure to compensate for his
domestic shortcomings, which may only spell
bloodshed and further economic crisis for
ordinary Venezuelans. As such, whilst this
is without a doubt an attempted coup d'état,
for now, it is only a diplomatic coup.</p>
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