[News] Honduran Regime Reneges on Political Deal
Anti-Imperialist News
news at freedomarchives.org
Wed Nov 11 12:53:53 EST 2009
http://www.counterpunch.org/lawrence11112009.html
November 11, 2009
Crisis May Only Worsen
Honduran Regime Reneges on Political Deal
By STEPHEN J. LAWRENCE
Despite a political agreement anounced two weeks
ago to restore ousted Honduran president Manual
Zelaya to power, the military-backed regime of
Robert Micheletti apparently has no intention of
letting the deposed leader return to office,
infomed sources say. In fact, the regime is
apparently using Zelaya's promised return as
little more than a PR ploy to neutralize domestic
and international opposition and to build
diplomatic support for the countrys upcoming presidential election.
Meanwhile, evidence is mounting that the US State
Department -- which had previously sided with
Zelaya and the Organization of American States
(OAS) in their efforts to get the illegally
deposed president reinstated -- knew all along
that the de facto regime was planning to renege
on the deal, but under pressure from US
conservatives and from influential Democratic
lobbysists, acquiesced in the regime's manuever.
Now, unless the de facto regime moves quickly
restore Zelaya to power -- which appears highly
unlikely -- the countrys bitter 4-month old
political crisis could be unresolvable, experts say.
For the Honduran regime, its latest political
gambit essentially, a coup within a coup -
could prove costly. Most of the international
community, including key US allies in Europoe and
Latin America, are on record saying they will not
recognize the legitimacy of the November 29
presidential election in Honduras unless Zelaya is first reinstated.
And Democrats, most of whom have supported
Zelayas return, could decide to continue the
current suspension of US aid to Honduras or even
impose tighter conditions that would completely
isolate the regime and further undermine the nations already weak economy.
Its still unclear how or why the latest
political crisis transpired. On paper, the two
sides apparently had reached an agreement that
would have let Zelaya finish out his full term in
office with greatly restricted powers. In
many respects, the deal was a victory for the
Honduran right, which had not only ousted Zelaya
illegally, but, in the face of widespread
diplomatic protest, had successfully stalled his return to power.
All the right had to do was agree to let Zelaya
return to office ever-so-briefly a mere three
weeks, plus time for a political transition and
its worries would have been over.
But the October 30 deal, as written, made
Zelayas return contingent upon a formal vote by
the Honduran Congress. And apparently that was
too big a temptation for the right to
resist. While Zelaya assumed that the
reinstatement vote would be largely pro forma,
and would come soon, Congress began stalling, and
now, according to sources, its all but certain
that the regime plans to renege on the entire deal.
Zelaya probably should have known better. In an
interview with the Blomberg News service just a
day after the agreement was signed, Maria Facusse
de Villeda, a top Micheletti aide
confided: Zelaya wont be restored. But just
by signing this agreement we already have the
recognition of the international community for the elections.
So was Zelaya naïve? Perhaps. But its also
clear that the US State Department, led by Tom
Shannon, the interim assistant secretary of state
of inter-american affairs, probably misled Zelaya
from the start. It was Shannon who insisted in
late October that Zelaya sign the agreement with
Micheletti, despite the need for Honduran
Congress approval. The Congress would be
obligated to reinstate him in a timely fashion, Shannon assured Zelaya.
But in an interview conducted last week an
interview conducted in Spanish, and thus less
likely to be reported by the US media - Shannon
clarified that it was up to the Hondurans to
decide how to handle the pre-November 29 election
transition. So, asked the interviewer, is the US
prepared recognize the outcome of the November 29
election whether Zelaya is restored to power or
not? Si, exactamente (Yes, thats right), Shannon replied.
Arguably, the Obama administrations reversal on
Zelayas restoration is rooted its own
long-standing discomfort with the former rancher
turned leftist. Even while backing his claim on
the presidency, many in the administration have
echoed the golpista argument that Zelaya was
attempting to impose a Venezuelan-style populist
authoritarian regime and had largely precipitated his own ouster.
But theres also a slightly more sinister
explanation: Obama simply cut a deal with the
right. Sen. James DeMint (R-SC), the
arch-conservative who has blocked confirmation of
Obamas Latin America appointees, including
Shannon, because of dissatisfaction with Obamas
support for Zelaya suddenly released that hold
last week a move neatly conciding with Shannons clarification."
And just for good measure, newly appointed
Senator James Lemieux (R-FL), who replaced the
retiring Sen. Mel Martinez, has issued a
confirmation hold of his own this one focused
squarely on Shannon. So, theres clearly a lesson
here for Obama: the rights appetite for
appeasement, in Latin America, and elsewhere, is probably insatiable.
In the final analysis, though, its the Honduran
people who will decide whether the ouster of
Zelaya was justified and whether new presidential
elections that move forward without their
illegally deposed president will be considered
legitimate. Polls indicate that a heavy majority
of Hondurans still oppose Zelaya's ouster and by
a 2-1 margin, they reject Micheletti. Zelaya and
his supporters are likely to call for a
full-fledged boycott of the November balloting
but it's unclear how much of the citizenry will
respond when the opportunity to elect a new president presents itself.
Looking beyond the election, Zelaya's legacy is
already coming into view. Whatever his faults,
he clearly managed to excite ordinary Hondurans
about using elections and the national government
to institute economic reforms that favor workers
and the poor. It wont be easy to put this genie
back in the bottle. And the military, which has
a long history of repressing Honduran popular
movements even aiding the right with death
squads in the 1980s - has been given a new lease
on life as the final arbiter of Honduran
politics. Therefore, whoever wins the
presidential election in November, renewed
conflict between these two forces - the people
and the army is probably inevitable.
Stewart Lawrence is a recognized specialist in
Latino and Latin American affairs, and author of
numerous policy reports and publications. He can
be reached at <mailto:stewlaw2009 at gmail.com>stewlaw2009 at gmail.com
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