[News] Honduran Regime Reneges on Political Deal

[Anti-Imperialist News]

http://www.counterpunch.org/lawrence11112009.html
November 11, 2009


Crisis May Only Worsen


Honduran Regime Reneges on Political Deal

By STEPHEN J. LAWRENCE

Despite a political agreement anounced two weeks 
ago to restore ousted Honduran president Manual 
Zelaya to power, the military-backed regime of 
Robert Micheletti apparently has no intention of 
letting the deposed leader return to office, 
infomed sources say.   In fact, the regime is 
apparently using Zelaya's promised return as 
little more than a PR ploy to neutralize domestic 
and international opposition and to build 
diplomatic support for the country’s upcoming presidential election.

Meanwhile, evidence is mounting that the US State 
Department -- which had previously sided with 
Zelaya and the Organization of American States 
(OAS) in their efforts to get the illegally 
deposed president reinstated -- knew all along 
that the de facto regime was planning to renege 
on the deal, but under pressure from US 
conservatives and from influential Democratic 
lobbysists, acquiesced in the regime's manuever.

Now, unless the de facto regime moves quickly 
restore Zelaya to power -- which appears highly 
unlikely -- the country’s bitter 4-month old 
political crisis could be unresolvable, experts say.

For the Honduran regime, its latest political 
gambit – essentially, a “coup within a coup” - 
could prove costly.  Most of the international 
community, including key US allies in Europoe and 
Latin America, are on record saying they will not 
recognize the legitimacy of the November 29 
presidential election in Honduras unless Zelaya is first reinstated.

And Democrats, most of whom have supported 
Zelaya’s return, could decide to continue the 
current suspension of US aid to Honduras or even 
impose tighter conditions that would completely 
isolate the regime and further undermine the nation’s already weak economy.

It’s still unclear how or why the latest 
political crisis transpired.  On paper, the two 
sides apparently had reached an agreement that 
would have let Zelaya finish out his full term in 
office – with greatly restricted powers.   In 
many respects, the deal was a victory for the 
Honduran right, which had not only ousted Zelaya 
illegally, but, in the face of widespread 
diplomatic protest, had successfully stalled his return to power.

All the right had to do was agree to let Zelaya 
return to office ever-so-briefly – a mere three 
weeks, plus time for a political transition – and 
its worries would have been over.

But the October 30 deal, as written, made 
Zelaya’s return contingent upon a formal vote by 
the Honduran Congress.  And apparently that was 
too big a temptation for the right to 
resist.   While Zelaya assumed that the 
reinstatement vote would be largely pro forma, 
and would come soon, Congress began stalling, and 
now, according to sources, it’s all but certain 
that the regime plans to renege on the entire deal.

Zelaya probably should have known better.  In an 
interview with the Blomberg News service just a 
day after the agreement was signed, Maria Facusse 
de Villeda, a top Micheletti aide 
confided:  “Zelaya won’t be restored.  But just 
by signing this agreement we already have the 
recognition of the international community for the elections.”

So was Zelaya naïve?  Perhaps.  But it’s also 
clear that the US State Department, led by Tom 
Shannon, the interim assistant secretary of state 
of inter-american affairs, probably misled Zelaya 
from the start.  It was Shannon who insisted in 
late October that Zelaya sign the agreement with 
Micheletti, despite the need for Honduran 
Congress approval.  The Congress would be 
obligated to reinstate him in a timely fashion, Shannon assured Zelaya.

But in an interview conducted last week – an 
interview conducted in Spanish, and thus less 
likely to be reported by the US media - Shannon 
“clarified” that it was up to the Hondurans to 
decide how to handle the pre-November 29 election 
transition.  So, asked the interviewer, is the US 
prepared recognize the outcome of the November 29 
election whether Zelaya is restored to power or 
not?   “Si, exactamente (Yes, that’s right),” Shannon replied.

Arguably, the Obama administration’s reversal on 
Zelaya’s restoration is rooted its own 
long-standing discomfort with the former rancher 
turned leftist.  Even while backing his claim on 
the presidency, many in the administration have 
echoed the golpista argument that Zelaya was 
attempting to impose a Venezuelan-style “populist 
authoritarian” regime and had largely precipitated his own ouster.

But there’s also a slightly more sinister 
explanation:  Obama simply cut a deal with the 
right.  Sen. James DeMint (R-SC), the 
arch-conservative who has blocked confirmation of 
Obama’s Latin America appointees, including 
Shannon, because of dissatisfaction with Obama’s 
support for Zelaya suddenly released that hold 
last week – a move neatly conciding with Shannon’s “clarification."

And just for good measure, newly appointed 
Senator James Lemieux (R-FL), who replaced the 
retiring Sen. Mel Martinez, has issued a 
confirmation hold of his own – this one focused 
squarely on Shannon. So, there’s clearly a lesson 
here for Obama: the right’s appetite for 
appeasement, in Latin America, and elsewhere, is probably insatiable.

In the final analysis, though, it’s the Honduran 
people who will decide whether the ouster of 
Zelaya was justified and whether new presidential 
elections that move forward without their 
illegally deposed president will be considered 
legitimate.  Polls indicate that a heavy majority 
of Hondurans still oppose Zelaya's ouster and by 
a 2-1 margin, they reject Micheletti.  Zelaya and 
his supporters are likely to call for a 
full-fledged boycott of the November balloting 
but it's unclear how much of the citizenry will 
respond when the opportunity to elect a new president presents itself.

Looking beyond the election, Zelaya's legacy is 
already coming into view.  Whatever his faults, 
he clearly managed to excite ordinary Hondurans 
about using elections and the national government 
to institute economic reforms that favor workers 
and the poor.  It won’t be easy to put this genie 
back in the bottle.   And the military, which has 
a long history of repressing Honduran popular 
movements – even aiding the right with death 
squads in the 1980s -  has been given a new lease 
on life as the final arbiter of Honduran 
politics. Therefore, whoever wins the 
presidential election in November, renewed 
conflict between these two forces - the people 
and the army – is probably inevitable.

Stewart Lawrence is a recognized specialist in 
Latino and Latin American affairs, and author of 
numerous policy reports and publications. He can 
be reached at <mailto:stewlaw2009 at gmail.com>stewlaw2009 at gmail.com




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