[News] Cuba and Venezuela Face US and Colombia

[News at freedomarchives.org]

http://counterpunch.org/petras03222005.html

March 22, 2005


Fateful Quadrangle


Cuba and Venezuela Face US and Colombia

By JAMES PETRAS

Cuba's living example of 45 years of successful resistance to US military 
aggression and economic boycott is extremely damaging to Washington's goal 
of world empire for several reasons. In the first place Cuba's success 
refutes the notion put forth by the "center-left" that "small", 
"undeveloped" countries cannot resist imperial powers, or sustain a 
revolution in the face of "globalization". Secondly the survival of the 
Cuban revolution refutes the idea that Caribbean or Latin American 
countries located proximate to the US must conform to the dictates of 
Washington. Thirdly, Cuba demonstrates that the US empire is not invincible 
­ Cuba has defeated almost all major aggressive military, political and 
diplomatic attacks.

Diplomatically, Cuba is recognized by almost all countries in the world, 
and receives the support of over 150 countries (versus 3 for the US) in 
opposition to the US embargo in the United Nations. Economically, Cuba has 
trade and investment relations with all major European, Asian, African, 
Latin American and North American nations (except the US). Militarily, the 
Cuban armed forces and intelligence agencies have defeated every 
US-sponsored terrorist attack on the islands for the past half-century in 
addition to raising the political cost for any potential invasion. In 
response to a half century of failures, the Bush Administration has 
escalated its aggression: practically eliminating all US travel to Cuba, 
blocking almost all family remittances, and tightening trade restrictions 
on food and medicine. While these harsh measures have had some negative 
effects on Cuba, they have also provoked opposition among some conservative 
sectors of the US public. Many Cuban exiles who would normally support Bush 
have been antagonized because they cannot provide economic assistance to 
aging family members. Agricultural interests (from 38 states) which 
supported Bush are furious at the new restriction on trade. Liberal and 
conservative enemies of the Cuban revolution who hoped to subvert the 
revolution via cultural and ideological penetration are upset by the travel 
and cultural restrictions.

In other words the harsher and more extreme the measures adopted by the 
Bush Administration against Cuba the greater Washington's isolation. This 
is true externally as well as internally. Let us examine several illustrations.

The US exploited the jailing of over 70 US paid propagandists, labeling 
them "political dissidents", initially securing the support of the European 
Union. A year later, the EU has broken with Washington and renewed and 
expanded its cultural and economic ties with Cuba.

While the US tightens its trade embargo, Cuban trade and investment ties 
with China and the rest of Asia, Venezuela and the rest of Latin America, 
Canada and Europe have expanded and deepened. The US restrictions on family 
remittances has been weakened by family members sending money via "third 
countries such as Mexico, Canada, Dominican Republic etc. Canadian, 
European, Latin American and Asian visitors have topped 2 million annually 
and new influxes of investment have made up for most of the shortfall from 
the restrictions on remittances.

Finally Washington's attempts to limit Cuba's access to energy sources 
after the fall of the USSR have been defeated by the far-reaching trade and 
investment agreements with the Venezuelan government of President Chavez. 
The Chavez regime provides Cuba with petrol at subsidized prices in 
exchange for Cuba providing a vast health and education program for the 
poor of Venezuela. The Cuban-Venezuelan political and economic ties have 
undercut US efforts to force the Caribbean and Latin American countries to 
break with Cuba. As a result of past and present failed policies of 
directly attacking Cuba, the Bush administration has turned toward 
destroying Cuba's strategic alliance with the Chavez regime.

The Two Stage Strategy

US strategy toward destroying the Cuban revolution is increasingly 
following a "two step" approach: first overthrow the Chavez government in 
Venezuela, cut off the energy supply and trade links and then proceed 
toward economic strangulation and military attack. The "two step" strategy 
against Cuba, involves the elaboration of a calibrated action plan to 
overthrow the Chavez government.

Washington's anti-Chavez efforts up till 2005 have resulted in severe 
defeats. These efforts have largely been based on an "insider" approach, 
utilizing the local ruling class, sectors of the army and the corrupt trade 
union bureaucracy. Not only have Washington's domestic instruments been 
defeated but they have been severely weakened for future use. Washington's 
support for the failed military coup resulted in the loss of several 
hundred counter-revolutionary officers who were forced to resign. Bush's 
support for the petroleum elite's lockout led to the expulsion of thousands 
of oil officials allied with Washington. The defeat of the referendum to 
expel Chavez, mobilized, politicized and radicalized millions of poor 
Venezuelans and demoralized Washington's middle class supporters. The 
result of these failed policies has been to turn Washington's attention to 
an "outsider" strategy: the key to which is incremental military 
intervention in association with the terrorist Uribe regime in Colombia.

The US strategy against Cuba involves a joint US-Colombian attack of 
Venezuela backed by internal terrorists and the ruling class. This indirect 
attack on Cuba, involves complex, external preparation in cooperation with 
Colombia. First of all Washington and Uribe have greatly strengthened 
military bases surrounding the Venezuelan border. Secondly "trial military 
incursions" involving both Colombian military and paramilitary forces occur 
on a regular basis ­ testing Venezuelan defenses. In 2004 six Venezuelan 
soldiers were killed, a number of Venezuelan officials were bribed to 
kidnap a Colombian resistance leader and numerous cross border attacks 
killing and kidnapping Colombian refugees took place in Venezuela. Thirdly 
the US has provided nearly $3 billion dollars in military aid to Colombia, 
tripled the size of its armed forces (to over 275,000), greatly increased 
its air force combat units (helicopters, fighter bombers), provided 
advanced military technology and several thousand official and "contracted" 
military specialists. Fourthly Washington has recruited the Gutierrez 
regime in Ecuador, invaded Haiti, established military bases in Peru and 
the Dominican Republic, and has engaged in navy maneuvers just off the 
Venezuelan coast in preparation for a military attack.Fifthly Colombia 
(under US tutelage) signed a joint military-intelligence cooperation 
agreement on December 18, 2004 with the Venezuelan Ministry of Defense, 
providing the US with "inside information" and serving as a possible source 
of infiltration of the Venezuelan Armed Forces to counter pro-Cuban officers.


The Triangular Strategy

The US is relying on a "triangular strategy" to overthrow the Chavez 
regime: A military invasion from Colombia, US intervention (air and sea 
attacks plus special forces to assassinate key officials) and an internal 
uprising by infiltrated terrorists and military traitors, supported by key 
media, financial and petrol elites. The strategy involves seizing state 
power, expelling the Cuban aid missions and breaking all agreements with Cuba.

Prior to this concerted military strategy, Washington has designed a 
propaganda campaign against the Cuban-Venezuelan alliance, Venezuela's 
attempts to rectify the enormous military deficit with Colombia by 
purchasing defensive arms, and raising the specter of Venezuela's 
"subversion" of Latin American regimes. The key to US policy is to prevent 
Venezuela from joining Cuba as an alternative social welfare regime to the 
US neo-liberal clients in Latin America. US aggression escalates as the 
agrarian reform expands, Venezuela prepares self-defense and Chavez 
diversifies trade and investment ties. Cuba's powerful support for 
Venezuela's social welfare programs has consolidated mass support for the 
Chavez regime and is a main base of defense for the radicalization of the 
process.

As Venezuela confronts Washington's threats, it consolidates its ties with 
Cuba. The fate of the two projects become intertwined and bound together in 
a single common anti-imperialist alliance, despite the differences in 
social systems and political composition.


Strengths of the Venezuelan-Cuban Alliance

The US "external" strategy toward Venezuela and its "two step" approach 
toward Cuba face powerful limitations.

First of all the Colombian regime faces a powerful internal opposition: 
20,000 veteran guerrilla fighters and millions of Colombians sympathetic to 
the agrarian reform program, independent foreign policy and political 
freedoms of the Chavez regime. It is very dangerous for Uribe to start a 
"two-front war" which might open the way to attacks on the principle cities 
including Bogotá.

The US is heavily tied down militarily in Iraq and puts a higher priority 
on war against Iran/Syria than Venezuela. The US intervention would be 
limited to air and sea attacks and Special Forces.

The war would mobilize millions of Venezuelans in a war of national 
liberation, defending their own land ­ homes, neighborhoods, families and 
friends. Moreover popular liberation wars radicalize the population and 
frequently lead to the confiscation of counter-revolutionary property. A 
failed invasion could push Venezuela toward greater socialization of the 
economy and eliminate the domestic elite.

Moreover, US economy and multi-nationals stand to lose a reliable supply of 
petroleum in a tight market and billions of dollars in investments ­ 
weakening the US position in the global energy market.

An invasion would likely to lead to a joint military defense pact between 
Venezuela and Cuba, which would counter-US policy in the Caribbean. Such an 
invasion would also be likely to provoke major unrest and instability 
throughout Latin America, threaten US clients and undermining neo-liberal 
regimes and policies.

For all these reasons, Washington's attempts to pursue the external, two 
step policy toward Venezuela and Cuba, while extremely dangerous to both 
countries, could have a boomerang effect, setting in its wake a new wave of 
anti-imperialist struggles throughout the region.

Up to now the escalation of US diplomatic and economic aggression against 
Cuba has led to the greater isolation of the US in Europe and throughout 
the Third World. An escalation of military aggression against Venezuela as 
part of a "two-step strategy" against Cuba could have even more severe 
consequences ­ the expansion of the revolutionary struggle in Colombia and 
the rest of Latin America.

James Petras, a former Professor of Sociology at Binghamton University, New 
York, owns a 50 year membership in the class struggle, is an adviser to the 
landless and jobless in brazil and argentina and is co-author of 
<http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/1856499383/counterpunch>Globalization 
Unmasked (Zed). He can be reached at: 
<mailto:jpetras at binghamton.edu>jpetras at binghamton.edu


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