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<a href="http://counterpunch.org/petras03222005.html" eudora="autourl">
http://counterpunch.org/petras03222005.html<br><br>
</a></font><font face="Times New Roman, Times" size=4><b>March 22,
2005<br><br>
</font><h1><font size=5><b>Fateful Quadrangle<br><br>
<br>
</i></font><font face="Times New Roman, Times" size=5 color="#990000">
Cuba and Venezuela Face US and
Colombia</b></font></h1><font face="Times New Roman, Times" size=5>By
JAMES PETRAS<br><br>
</font><font face="verdana" size=6 color="#990000">C</font>
<font face="verdana" size=2>uba's living example of 45 years of
successful resistance to US military aggression and economic boycott is
extremely damaging to Washington's goal of world empire for several
reasons. In the first place Cuba's success refutes the notion put forth
by the "center-left" that "small",
"undeveloped" countries cannot resist imperial powers, or
sustain a revolution in the face of "globalization". Secondly
the survival of the Cuban revolution refutes the idea that Caribbean or
Latin American countries located proximate to the US must conform to the
dictates of Washington. Thirdly, Cuba demonstrates that the US empire is
not invincible Cuba has defeated almost all major aggressive military,
political and diplomatic attacks.<br><br>
Diplomatically, Cuba is recognized by almost all countries in the world,
and receives the support of over 150 countries (versus 3 for the US) in
opposition to the US embargo in the United Nations. Economically, Cuba
has trade and investment relations with all major European, Asian,
African, Latin American and North American nations (except the US).
Militarily, the Cuban armed forces and intelligence agencies have
defeated every US-sponsored terrorist attack on the islands for the past
half-century in addition to raising the political cost for any potential
invasion. In response to a half century of failures, the Bush
Administration has escalated its aggression: practically eliminating all
US travel to Cuba, blocking almost all family remittances, and tightening
trade restrictions on food and medicine. While these harsh measures have
had some negative effects on Cuba, they have also provoked opposition
among some conservative sectors of the US public. Many Cuban exiles who
would normally support Bush have been antagonized because they cannot
provide economic assistance to aging family members. Agricultural
interests (from 38 states) which supported Bush are furious at the new
restriction on trade. Liberal and conservative enemies of the Cuban
revolution who hoped to subvert the revolution via cultural and
ideological penetration are upset by the travel and cultural
restrictions.<br><br>
In other words the harsher and more extreme the measures adopted by the
Bush Administration against Cuba the greater Washington's isolation. This
is true externally as well as internally. Let us examine several
illustrations.<br><br>
The US exploited the jailing of over 70 US paid propagandists, labeling
them "political dissidents", initially securing the support of
the European Union. A year later, the EU has broken with Washington and
renewed and expanded its cultural and economic ties with Cuba.<br><br>
While the US tightens its trade embargo, Cuban trade and investment ties
with China and the rest of Asia, Venezuela and the rest of Latin America,
Canada and Europe have expanded and deepened. The US restrictions on
family remittances has been weakened by family members sending money via
"third countries such as Mexico, Canada, Dominican Republic etc.
Canadian, European, Latin American and Asian visitors have topped 2
million annually and new influxes of investment have made up for most of
the shortfall from the restrictions on remittances.<br><br>
Finally Washington's attempts to limit Cuba's access to energy sources
after the fall of the USSR have been defeated by the far-reaching trade
and investment agreements with the Venezuelan government of President
Chavez. The Chavez regime provides Cuba with petrol at subsidized prices
in exchange for Cuba providing a vast health and education program for
the poor of Venezuela. The Cuban-Venezuelan political and economic ties
have undercut US efforts to force the Caribbean and Latin American
countries to break with Cuba. As a result of past and present failed
policies of directly attacking Cuba, the Bush administration has turned
toward destroying Cuba's strategic alliance with the Chavez
regime.<br><br>
</font><font face="verdana" size=2 color="#990000"><b>The Two Stage
Strategy<br><br>
</b></font><font face="verdana" size=2>US strategy toward destroying the
Cuban revolution is increasingly following a "two step"
approach: first overthrow the Chavez government in Venezuela, cut off the
energy supply and trade links and then proceed toward economic
strangulation and military attack. The "two step" strategy
against Cuba, involves the elaboration of a calibrated action plan to
overthrow the Chavez government.<br><br>
Washington's anti-Chavez efforts up till 2005 have resulted in severe
defeats. These efforts have largely been based on an "insider"
approach, utilizing the local ruling class, sectors of the army and the
corrupt trade union bureaucracy. Not only have Washington's domestic
instruments been defeated but they have been severely weakened for future
use. Washington's support for the failed military coup resulted in the
loss of several hundred counter-revolutionary officers who were forced to
resign. Bush's support for the petroleum elite's lockout led to the
expulsion of thousands of oil officials allied with Washington. The
defeat of the referendum to expel Chavez, mobilized, politicized and
radicalized millions of poor Venezuelans and demoralized Washington's
middle class supporters. The result of these failed policies has been to
turn Washington's attention to an "outsider" strategy: the key
to which is incremental military intervention in association with the
terrorist Uribe regime in Colombia.<br><br>
The US strategy against Cuba involves a joint US-Colombian attack of
Venezuela backed by internal terrorists and the ruling class. This
indirect attack on Cuba, involves complex, external preparation in
cooperation with Colombia. First of all Washington and Uribe have greatly
strengthened military bases surrounding the Venezuelan border. Secondly
"trial military incursions" involving both Colombian military
and paramilitary forces occur on a regular basis testing Venezuelan
defenses. In 2004 six Venezuelan soldiers were killed, a number of
Venezuelan officials were bribed to kidnap a Colombian resistance leader
and numerous cross border attacks killing and kidnapping Colombian
refugees took place in Venezuela. Thirdly the US has provided nearly $3
billion dollars in military aid to Colombia, tripled the size of its
armed forces (to over 275,000), greatly increased its air force combat
units (helicopters, fighter bombers), provided advanced military
technology and several thousand official and "contracted"
military specialists. Fourthly Washington has recruited the Gutierrez
regime in Ecuador, invaded Haiti, established military bases in Peru and
the Dominican Republic, and has engaged in navy maneuvers just off the
Venezuelan coast in preparation for a military attack.Fifthly Colombia
(under US tutelage) signed a joint military-intelligence cooperation
agreement on December 18, 2004 with the Venezuelan Ministry of Defense,
providing the US with "inside information" and serving as a
possible source of infiltration of the Venezuelan Armed Forces to counter
pro-Cuban officers.<br><br>
<br>
</font><font face="verdana" size=2 color="#990000"><b>The Triangular
Strategy<br><br>
</b></font><font face="verdana" size=2>The US is relying on a
"triangular strategy" to overthrow the Chavez regime: A
military invasion from Colombia, US intervention (air and sea attacks
plus special forces to assassinate key officials) and an internal
uprising by infiltrated terrorists and military traitors, supported by
key media, financial and petrol elites. The strategy involves seizing
state power, expelling the Cuban aid missions and breaking all agreements
with Cuba.<br><br>
Prior to this concerted military strategy, Washington has designed a
propaganda campaign against the Cuban-Venezuelan alliance, Venezuela's
attempts to rectify the enormous military deficit with Colombia by
purchasing defensive arms, and raising the specter of Venezuela's
"subversion" of Latin American regimes. The key to US policy is
to prevent Venezuela from joining Cuba as an alternative social welfare
regime to the US neo-liberal clients in Latin America. US aggression
escalates as the agrarian reform expands, Venezuela prepares self-defense
and Chavez diversifies trade and investment ties. Cuba's powerful support
for Venezuela's social welfare programs has consolidated mass support for
the Chavez regime and is a main base of defense for the radicalization of
the process.<br><br>
As Venezuela confronts Washington's threats, it consolidates its ties
with Cuba. The fate of the two projects become intertwined and bound
together in a single common anti-imperialist alliance, despite the
differences in social systems and political composition.<br><br>
<br>
</font><font face="verdana" size=2 color="#990000"><b>Strengths of the
Venezuelan-Cuban Alliance<br><br>
</b></font><font face="verdana" size=2>The US "external"
strategy toward Venezuela and its "two step" approach toward
Cuba face powerful limitations.<br><br>
First of all the Colombian regime faces a powerful internal opposition:
20,000 veteran guerrilla fighters and millions of Colombians sympathetic
to the agrarian reform program, independent foreign policy and political
freedoms of the Chavez regime. It is very dangerous for Uribe to start a
"two-front war" which might open the way to attacks on the
principle cities including Bogotá.<br><br>
The US is heavily tied down militarily in Iraq and puts a higher priority
on war against Iran/Syria than Venezuela. The US intervention would be
limited to air and sea attacks and Special Forces.<br><br>
The war would mobilize millions of Venezuelans in a war of national
liberation, defending their own land homes, neighborhoods, families and
friends. Moreover popular liberation wars radicalize the population and
frequently lead to the confiscation of counter-revolutionary property. A
failed invasion could push Venezuela toward greater socialization of the
economy and eliminate the domestic elite.<br><br>
Moreover, US economy and multi-nationals stand to lose a reliable supply
of petroleum in a tight market and billions of dollars in investments
weakening the US position in the global energy market.<br><br>
An invasion would likely to lead to a joint military defense pact between
Venezuela and Cuba, which would counter-US policy in the Caribbean. Such
an invasion would also be likely to provoke major unrest and instability
throughout Latin America, threaten US clients and undermining neo-liberal
regimes and policies.<br><br>
For all these reasons, Washington's attempts to pursue the external, two
step policy toward Venezuela and Cuba, while extremely dangerous to both
countries, could have a boomerang effect, setting in its wake a new wave
of anti-imperialist struggles throughout the region.<br><br>
Up to now the escalation of US diplomatic and economic aggression against
Cuba has led to the greater isolation of the US in Europe and throughout
the Third World. An escalation of military aggression against Venezuela
as part of a "two-step strategy" against Cuba could have even
more severe consequences the expansion of the revolutionary struggle in
Colombia and the rest of Latin America.<br><br>
<b>James Petras</b>, a former Professor of Sociology at Binghamton
University, New York, owns a 50 year membership in the class struggle, is
an adviser to the landless and jobless in brazil and argentina and is
co-author of
<a href="http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/1856499383/counterpunch">
Globalization Unmasked</a> (Zed). He can be reached at:
<a href="mailto:jpetras@binghamton.edu">jpetras@binghamton.edu</a><br><br>
</font><x-sigsep><p></x-sigsep>
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