[News] Gaza death toll was a third higher than official figures, says Lancet study

[Anti-Imperialist News]

middleeasteye.net
<https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/gaza-death-toll-was-third-higher-official-figures-says-lancet-study>
Gaza death toll was a third higher than official figures, says Lancet study
Rayhan Uddin
February 19, 2026
------------------------------

Number of violent deaths in first 16 months of genocide was over 75,000 -
far exceeding conservative health ministry estimates, research finds
[image: People standing near destroyed buildings in the Zahra
neighbourhood, southwest of Nuseirat in the central Gaza Strip, on 6
February 2026 (Eyad Baba/AFP)]

People standing near destroyed buildings in the Zahra neighbourhood,
southwest of Nuseirat in the central Gaza Strip, on 6 February 2026 (Eyad
Baba/AFP)

Published date: 19 February 2026 10:21 GMT | Last update: 1 hour 44 mins ago


The number of “violent deaths” in Gaza during the first 16 months of Israel
<https://www.middleeasteye.net/countries/israel>’s genocidal war exceeded
75,000 - far higher than official figures at the time, according to a new
paper
<https://www.thelancet.com/journals/langlo/article/PIIS2214-109X(25)00522-4/fulltext>
published in The Lancet Global Health journal.

The Gaza Mortality Survey estimated 75,200 “violent deaths” in Gaza between
7 October 2023 and 5 January 2025.

On that date in 2025, the Palestinian
<https://www.middleeasteye.net/countries/palestine> health ministry
reported the death toll at 49,090. The new study, published on Wednesday,
suggests that the actual figure was about 35 percent higher.

Researchers also found that the proportion of women, children and elderly
people killed in Gaza, as reported by health officials, was accurate.

The study found that 42,200 women, children and elderly suffered violent
deaths by 5 January 2025, comprising 56 percent of the total.

“The combined evidence suggests that, as of 5 January 2025, 3.4% of the
population of the Gaza Strip had been killed violently and there have been
a substantial number of non-violent deaths caused indirectly by the
conflict,” the authors of the study wrote.

The authors include an economist, demographer, epidemiologist and survey
specialists.

One of the authors, Michael Spagat, a professor of economics at Royal
Holloway, said the study suggested an additional 8,200 deaths in Gaza up
until January 2025 were attributable to indirect effects, including
malnutrition and untreated disease.

The study involved interviews with 2,000 households representing 9,729
individuals in Gaza. They were carefully selected to represent the
population, and were asked to give details about deaths among family
members. The survey was run by experienced Palestinian pollsters.

The study does not include the period of the genocide and renewed Israeli
offensive from March to October, during which a famine was declared in Gaza
due to the blockade on aid.
Ministry figures 'conservative and reliable'

The researchers said it was, to their knowledge, the first
population-representative household survey conducted during Israel's war on
Gaza.

"These results underscore the feasibility of mortality surveillance in
highly challenging conflict settings and provide a crucial empirical
foundation for assessing the true human cost of the conflict," they said.

As of this week, the health ministry says at least 72,063 people have been
killed by Israeli forces since October 2023.

<https://www.middleeasteye.net/opinion/israels-economic-engine-fuelled-genocide>

Israel's economic engine is fuelled by genocide

Read More »
<https://www.middleeasteye.net/opinion/israels-economic-engine-fuelled-genocide>

Israel has long questioned the health ministry’s figures, but last month an
Israeli military official said that the army accepted that about 70,000
people had been killed in Gaza.

Researchers said that the health ministry’s figures were reliable, despite
working under "extraordinary constraints". They said that the figures
provided a conservative “floor” rather than an over count.

“The validation of [Ministry of Health] reporting through multiple
independent methodologies supports the reliability of its administrative
casualty recording systems even under extreme conditions,” the study said.

In November, the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research estimated
<https://www.mpg.de/25778228/1125-defo-gaza-study-reveals-unprecedented-losses-of-life-and-life-expectancy-154642-x>
that 78,318 people were killed in Gaza between 7 October 2023 and 31
December 2024 - almost exactly the same period as the Lancet study.

A study published by the Lancet last year estimated
<https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/1/10/deaths-from-israeli-attacks-in-gaza-undercounted-by-41-percent-study-finds>
that the health ministry's death toll for the first nine months of the
genocide was undercounted by 41 percent.

It estimated that 64,260 people were killed by June 2024 - well above the
official figure of 37,877.

That study used "capture-recapture" modelling, which relied on probability,
while the new research made a mathematical estimation using empirical
verification through survey interviews.

"Our finding that MoH figures undercount violent deaths by approximately 35
percent closely aligns with the capture–recapture estimates," the new study
said.

"This rare validation between survey and capture–recapture
methodologies strengthens
confidence in both approaches."
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