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<a class="gmail-domain gmail-reader-domain" href="https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/gaza-death-toll-was-third-higher-official-figures-says-lancet-study">middleeasteye.net</a>
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<h1 class="gmail-reader-title">Gaza death toll was a third higher than official figures, says Lancet study</h1>
<div class="gmail-credits gmail-reader-credits">Rayhan Uddin</div>
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<div class="gmail-reader-estimated-time" dir="ltr">February 19, 2026</div>
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<p>Number of violent deaths in first 16
months of genocide was over 75,000 - far exceeding conservative health
ministry estimates, research finds </p>
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<img width="496" height="279" src="https://www.middleeasteye.net/sites/default/files/styles/max_2600x2600/public/images-story/gaza-destruction-feb-2026-afp.jpg.jpg?itok=jl_RlnZY" alt="People standing near destroyed buildings in the Zahra neighbourhood, southwest of Nuseirat in the central Gaza Strip, on 6 February 2026 (Eyad Baba/AFP)" style="margin-right: 0px;">
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<p><font size="1">People standing near destroyed buildings in the
Zahra neighbourhood, southwest of Nuseirat in the central Gaza Strip, on
6 February 2026 (Eyad Baba/AFP)</font></p>
<p><span>Published date:</span> 19 February 2026 10:21 GMT
<span>| </span>
<span>Last update:</span> <span id="gmail-date-updatedago">1 hour 44 mins </span> ago </p>
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<div><p>The number of \u201cviolent deaths\u201d in Gaza during the first 16 months of <a href="https://www.middleeasteye.net/countries/israel" target="_blank">Israel</a>\u2019s genocidal war exceeded 75,000 - far higher than official figures at the time, according to a <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/langlo/article/PIIS2214-109X(25)00522-4/fulltext" target="_blank">new paper</a> published in The Lancet Global Health journal. </p>
<p>The Gaza Mortality Survey estimated 75,200 \u201cviolent deaths\u201d in Gaza between 7 October 2023 and 5 January 2025. </p>
<p>On that date in 2025, the <a href="https://www.middleeasteye.net/countries/palestine" target="_blank">Palestinian</a>
health ministry reported the death toll at 49,090. The new study,
published on Wednesday, suggests that the actual figure was about 35
percent higher. </p>
<p>Researchers also found that the proportion of women, children and
elderly people killed in Gaza, as reported by health officials, was
accurate. </p>
<p>The study found that 42,200 women, children and elderly suffered
violent deaths by 5 January 2025, comprising 56 percent of the total. </p><p>\u201cThe combined evidence suggests that, as of 5 January 2025, 3.4% of
the population of the Gaza Strip had been killed violently and there
have been a substantial number of non-violent deaths caused indirectly
by the conflict,\u201d the authors of the study wrote. </p>
<p>The authors include an economist, demographer, epidemiologist and survey specialists.</p>
<p>One of the authors, Michael Spagat, a professor of economics at Royal
Holloway, said the study suggested an additional 8,200 deaths in Gaza
up until January 2025 were attributable to indirect effects, including
malnutrition and untreated disease. </p>
<p>The study involved interviews with 2,000 households representing
9,729 individuals in Gaza. They were carefully selected to represent the
population, and were asked to give details about deaths among family
members. The survey was run by experienced Palestinian pollsters. </p>
<p>The study does not include the period of the genocide and renewed
Israeli offensive from March to October, during which a famine was
declared in Gaza due to the blockade on aid.</p>
<h3>Ministry figures 'conservative and reliable'</h3>
<p>The researchers said it was, to their knowledge, the first
population-representative household survey conducted during Israel's war
on Gaza.</p>
<p>"These results underscore the feasibility of mortality surveillance
in highly challenging conflict settings and provide a crucial empirical
foundation for assessing the true human cost of the conflict," they
said. </p>
<p>As of this week, the health ministry says at least 72,063 people have been killed by Israeli forces since October 2023.</p>
<div>
<p><a href="https://www.middleeasteye.net/opinion/israels-economic-engine-fuelled-genocide" target="_blank"><img src="https://www.middleeasteye.net/sites/default/files/styles/read_more/public/images-story/israel-drone-surveillance-gaza-september-2025-jack-guez-afp.jpg.webp?itok=2-hP34XT" width="400" height="250" alt="" class="gmail-moz-reader-block-img">
</a></p><p>Israel's economic engine is fuelled by genocide</p>
<p><a href="https://www.middleeasteye.net/opinion/israels-economic-engine-fuelled-genocide" target="_blank">Read More »</a>
</p></div>
<p>Israel has long questioned the health ministry\u2019s figures, but last
month an Israeli military official said that the army accepted that
about 70,000 people had been killed in Gaza. </p>
<p>Researchers said that the health ministry\u2019s figures were reliable,
despite working under "extraordinary constraints". They said that the
figures provided a conservative \u201cfloor\u201d rather than an over count.</p>
<p>\u201cThe validation of [Ministry of Health] reporting through multiple
independent methodologies supports the reliability of its administrative
casualty recording systems even under extreme conditions,\u201d the study
said.</p>
<p>In November, the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research <a href="https://www.mpg.de/25778228/1125-defo-gaza-study-reveals-unprecedented-losses-of-life-and-life-expectancy-154642-x" target="_blank">estimated</a>
that 78,318 people were killed in Gaza between 7 October 2023 and 31
December 2024 - almost exactly the same period as the Lancet study. </p>
<p>A study published by the Lancet last year <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/1/10/deaths-from-israeli-attacks-in-gaza-undercounted-by-41-percent-study-finds" target="_blank">estimated</a> that the health ministry's death toll for the first nine months of the genocide was undercounted by 41 percent.</p>
<p>It estimated that 64,260 people were killed by June 2024 - well above the official figure of 37,877. </p>
<p>That study used "capture-recapture" modelling, which relied on
probability, while the new research made a mathematical estimation using
empirical verification through survey interviews. </p>
<p>"Our finding that MoH figures undercount violent deaths by
approximately 35 percent closely aligns with the capture\u2013recapture
estimates," the new study said.</p>
<p>"This rare validation between survey and capture\u2013recapture methodologies<span> </span>strengthens confidence in both approaches."</p>
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