[News] Colombia's right-wing win reflects deep polarization as pro-US alignment, restoration of Israel ties loom

[Anti-Imperialist News]

presstv.co.uk
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Colombia's right-wing win reflects deep polarization as pro-US alignment,
restoration of Israel ties loom: Analyst
Presstv
August 11, 2026
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[image: image.png]


*By Mina Mosallanejad*

*The narrow victory of right-wing billionaire Abelardo de la Espriella as
Colombia’s president reflects a deeply polarized and divided Colombian
society rather than a decisive mandate for the new government, says a
political commentator.*

De la Espriella, a lawyer and businessman who had never held public office,
defeated left-wing candidate Iván Cepeda in Colombia’s June presidential
runoff by less than one percentage point, securing 49.66% of the vote
against Cepeda’s 48.70%.

His victory marks a sharp shift to the right after the left-wing government
of President Gustavo Petro, who had developed closer ties with Palestine
and a foreign policy independent of US influence.

In an interview with the *Press TV website*, Vijay Prashad, the executive
director of the Tricontinental Institute for Social Research and a
political commentator, sees the Colombian election as part of a broader
rightward shift across Latin America.

He said de la Espriella’s government is likely to bring Colombia
significantly closer to Washington, adopt a more militarized approach to
security and counternarcotics, restore ties with the Israeli regime and
move away from Petro’s unwavering support for the Palestinian cause.

He also warned that the new administration’s hardline security agenda could
intensify tensions with opposition movements and human-rights groups, while
its closer alignment with Washington could deepen Colombia’s regional
polarization.

Prashad also cautioned that de la Espriella’s victory does not amount to an
uncontested mandate.

The extremely narrow electoral margin, a divided Congress and Colombia’s
deeply polarized society could make the next four years a defining test of
whether the new government can consolidate a lasting political
transformation or turn the country’s political conflict into a permanent
confrontation between “order” and “resistance,” he noted.

*A narrow victory, a divided country*

According to Prashad, a vocal critic of neocolonialism and US imperialism,
de la Espriella’s victory with an extremely narrow margin over left-wing
candidate Cepeda points to a deeply divided electorate.

“Colombian society is extremely polarized,” Prashad told the *Press TV
website*, describing the country as one marked by “enormous extremes of
wealth and income inequality.”

He said these disparities are rooted in “older oligarchical structures that
date back to the old colonial days” and were later reinforced by “the long
period of effectively dictatorial rule by two parties of this oligarchy.”

According to Prashad, Colombia’s Gini index stood at 54.38 in 2024, while
31.8 percent of Colombians remained below the national poverty line despite
overall economic growth.

He linked the political opening that brought Petro to power in 2022 to the
mass demonstrations of 2019-2020 and the 2016 peace accords.

Colombia’s 2016 peace accord ended the government’s decades-long war with
the FARC (Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia), which was Colombia’s
largest left-wing guerrilla group. It fought the Colombian government for
more than five decades, beginning in 1964, before signing the 2016 peace
agreement and laying down its arms.

But the peace accord’s incomplete implementation, combined with deep
economic inequality, political polarization and police violence,
contributed to growing social unrest that erupted in mass protests in 2019
and again on a much larger scale in 2021.

Petro won 50.42 percent of the vote, benefiting from a population that,
according to Prashad, was increasingly agitated but also eager to move
beyond Colombia’s long history of political division.

However, Petro’s presidency did not fundamentally alter the balance of
political forces, Prashad said.

“While Petro did move an agenda on many issues, he was not able to change
the balance of forces in one presidential term,” he told the *Press TV
website.*

As a result, Prashad sees the latest election as a movement back toward
Colombia’s traditional power structures. “The needle went back to the
oligarchy,” he said.

But that shift did not simply restore the old political order. Traditional
oligarchic candidates were unable to contain de la Espriella’s far-right
challenge.

“Their preferred candidates could not hold off the far-right wing challenge
from de la Espriella,” Prashad said, adding that the final result, however,
underscored the limits of his victory.

*Washington’s ideological muscle*

US President Donald Trump’s open endorsement of de la Espriella during the
election campaign, followed by Washington’s announcement of a major
security assistance package, raises the question of how far US political
and financial backing may have shaped the outcome, Prashad said.

Asked to what extent he believes Washington’s support influenced Colombia’s
election, he placed the Colombian vote within a much broader US effort to
reshape the political landscape of Latin America.

“The United States has made it clear that it would like to erase the entire
progressive and democratic force that was once dominant in Latin America,”
the analyst stated, pointing to the broader regional shift to the right, as
only Brazil and Uruguay still have progressive forces in power in the
region.

“Elsewhere, the far-right has prevailed,” he said, adding that these forces
have continued to consolidate support by building “majority blocs around
issues such as anti-immigration, anti-crime, and pro-capitalist policies.”

Prashad added that Washington has played an important role in strengthening
this political shift, particularly through its ideological influence.

“The US has certainly helped these forces with its considerable ideological
muscle,” he said.

In Colombia, he pointed to clear evidence of an attempt by Washington to
influence the election directly.

Two weeks before the runoff, Prashad noted, Trump gave de la Espriella his
“complete and total endorsement,” urged Colombians to support him, and said
the result would be important for Colombia’s relationship with the United
States.

“There is clear evidence of attempted political influence in this election
in Colombia,” Prashad said, noting that Trump’s language went beyond a
routine political endorsement.

By tying the election result directly to Colombia’s future relationship
with Washington, he said, Trump’s intervention could reasonably be
understood “as implying diplomatic or economic consequences.”

*Bogotá tilt toward Washington*

With de la Espriella now in power, the question of what his presidency will
mean for Colombia’s relationship with the United States becomes
particularly significant.

Asked whether he expects Bogotá to become substantially more aligned with
Washington’s foreign-policy priorities, Prashad predicted a major shift
away from the approach pursued by Petro.

“De La Espriella’s election is likely to produce a substantial realignment
toward Washington, especially after the Petro years,” Prashad told the *Press
TV website*.

He pointed to “unusually strong early evidence of this shift,” saying de la
Espriella’s government has joined the US-led “Shield of the so-called
Americas” initiative, adopted a harder counternarcotics strategy, and
received a proposed $1 billion US security package immediately after his
inauguration.

Washington itself, Prashad noted, has described the relationship as
entering a “new era,” with regional security, migration and economic
cooperation at its center.

Prashad said he expects the alignment with Washington to become most
visible across four key areas: expanded military and intelligence
cooperation against drug cartels and armed groups; renewed coca eradication
efforts and the possible return of aerial spraying; closer cooperation on
migration and Venezuela; and more US-friendly policies on energy and
investment.

The foreign-policy shift is also likely to extend beyond Washington.
Prashad said he expects de la Espriella to restore diplomatic relations
with the Israeli regime as he has already announced, distance Colombia from
Cuba and Nicaragua, and expand oil and gas production.

Yet despite the strong indications of a strategic realignment, Prashad does
not expect Bogotá to simply follow Washington’s lead on every issue due to
internal divisions.

“De la Espriella has a divided Congress, faces strong domestic opposition,
and must manage Colombia’s economic relationships with China and its Latin
American neighbors,” he said.

Prashad also warned that aggressive US-backed policies could trigger legal
challenges, human-rights criticism and nationalist resistance inside
Colombia.

“My expectation is therefore significant strategic alignment, particularly
on security and regional diplomacy, but selective autonomy on trade and
other issues where Colombian interests diverge,” Prashad told the *Press TV
website.*

*A return to interventionism?*

De la Espriella’s support for joint military operations with the United
States, including the possibility of hosting US troops in Colombia, raises
the prospect of a major transformation in the country’s security policy,
Prashad warned.

Asked whether this could mark a return to a more interventionist model and
what it could mean for Colombia’s relations with Venezuela and other
governments in the region, Prashad said the shift could resemble an earlier
chapter in Colombia’s security history – but potentially in a more
aggressive form.

“Yes, it could mark a return to an interventionist model resembling Plan
Colombia, but potentially with a more overtly kinetic and regional
character,” Prashad said.

Plan Colombia was a US-backed so-called counternarcotics program launched
in the late 1990s that brought extensive US military, intelligence and
financial support to Colombia. Under de la Espriella, Prashad expects the
model to return with an even stronger emphasis on direct military action.

“De la Espriella has advocated US bases, joint aerial eradication and
operations against ‘narco-terrorist’ targets,” he said, adding that such a
policy would represent a significant departure from Petro’s approach, which
placed greater emphasis on negotiations with armed groups and rural
development.

Prashad expects the new government to instead prioritize intelligence
sharing, extraditions, fumigation, special operations and military control
of contested territory.

However, he noted, the prospect of permanently stationing US forces in
Colombia faces significant legal and political obstacles.

Prashad pointed to Article 189 of Colombia’s Constitution, which regulates
the entry or transit of foreign troops, as well as the requirement for
congressional approval of formal international agreements.

As a result, he believes a more gradual arrangement is likely.

“It is therefore more likely initially to involve rotational deployments,
advisers, intelligence personnel and access to Colombian facilities than
sovereign American ‘bases’,” Prashad said.

He warned that a renewed military campaign could also reproduce some of the
failures associated with Plan Colombia, particularly its impact on
civilians and its inability to permanently eliminate armed groups and coca
cultivation.

“Operations also risk civilian casualties, displacement and repeating Plan
Colombia’s tendency to move armed groups and coca cultivation elsewhere
rather than eliminate them,” he said.

*Venezuela caught in the crossfire*

The most immediate regional consequences could emerge along Colombia’s
2,200-kilometre border with Venezuela. Prashad warned that Caracas – as
well as armed groups operating on either side of the border – could begin
to view Colombia as a platform for expanding US power in the region.

The risks are particularly serious because Bogotá has indicated that its
Venezuela policy will be closely coordinated with Washington, even as
Colombia remains deeply dependent on managing practical issues with its
neighbor, including migration, trade and armed organizations operating
across the border, Prashad told the *Press TV website.*

“Any cross-border pursuit, reconnaissance, or strike could therefore
trigger military incidents, border closures, proxy retaliation, or another
migration shock,” he remarked.

Those risks, he added, may ultimately force de la Espriella to preserve
direct communication with Caracas.

*A deeper regional divide*

The consequences would not be limited to Colombia and Venezuela. According
to Prashad, more interventionist security policy could deepen the political
polarization already visible across Latin America.

“Regionally, the policy would deepen polarization,” Prashad said, expecting
right-leaning governments such as Argentina, Ecuador, El Salvador and
Paraguay to welcome stronger US-Colombian security cooperation.

By contrast, he said, Brazil, Mexico and other governments committed to the
principle of non-intervention would likely view permanent US deployments or
unilateral military strikes as threats to national sovereignty.

Prashad sees a similar divide emerging from the reaction to the 2026 US
attack on Venezuela and the abduction of it leader Nicolas Maduro.

“Colombia could consequently regain its role as Washington’s leading
security partner in South America, but at the cost of weaker regional trust
and reduced ability to act as a diplomatic bridge,” Prashad warned.

*A dramatic shift on Palestine*

De la Espriella’s strong support for Israel and his pledges to restore full
diplomatic ties with the regime, move Colombia’s embassy to occupied
al-Quds and resume coal exports to Israeli-occupied territories would
represent a major departure from the foreign policy pursued under Petro.

Asked how significant such a shift would be for Colombia and for its
longstanding support for the Palestinian cause, Prashad described it as a
“major reversal” of Petro’s policy, although he noted that restoring
diplomatic and security ties would “partly revive Colombia’s historically
close pre-2022 relationship with Israel.”

For Prashad, however, the most consequential move would be relocating
Colombia’s embassy from Tel Aviv to occupied al-Quds.

“The more consequential step would be relocating the embassy from Tel Aviv
to [al-Quds] and align Colombia with a small group of strongly pro-Israel
governments,” he said.

The decision to resume coal exports to Israeli-occupied territories would
also carry both material and symbolic importance, he added.

However, he explained, the importance of the trade is not equal for both
sides. While reopening exports would benefit Colombian producers and
restore commercial ties, Colombian coal has been considerably more
important to Israel’s energy security than the trade has been to Colombia’s
broader coal industry.

Before Petro imposed restrictions, Israel obtained more than half of its
imported coal from Colombia, while Colombian coal sales to the Israeli
regime exceeded $320 million in the first eight months of 2023, he
highlighted.

“Thus, exports mattered considerably more to Israeli energy security than
to Colombia’s roughly $9 billion coal-export industry,” Prashad said.

That is also why the decision could carry consequences beyond trade.
Prashad noted that restoring coal exports to occupied territories would
remove one of Bogotá’s most significant economic levers over Israel amid
the genocidal war on Gaza.

*What happens to Colombia’s support for Palestine?*

The shift could be equally consequential diplomatically. Colombia’s formal
recognition of the Palestinian state in 2018 would not necessarily be
revoked under de la Espriella, but Prashad warned that recognition could
become little more than a symbolic gesture.

“For Palestine, the shift would not necessarily revoke Colombia’s formal
2018 recognition of the Palestinian state, but it could make that
recognition largely symbolic,” he said.

According to Prahsad, de la Espriella has reportedly cancelled plans for a
Colombian mission in Palestine.

His government, he said, could also reverse several of Petro-era positions
at the United Nations, scale back diplomatic engagement with Palestinian
representatives and withdraw or soften Colombia’s support for legal
proceedings concerning Israel at the International Court of Justice.

The broader result, Prashad said, would go well beyond simply normalizing
relations with Israel.

“It would move Colombia from Petro’s position as one of Palestine’s
strongest Latin American advocates to an explicitly pro-Israel alignment,”
he said.

“That could improve defense, intelligence, agricultural and technological
cooperation with Israel and strengthen ties with Washington,” Prashad said,
“but it would weaken Colombia’s credibility with Palestinian
representatives, Arab governments, and states that see recognition of
[al-Quds] as prejudging a negotiated settlement.”

*A harder, more militarized state*

De la Espriella’s hardline positions on protesters, drug trafficking and
security raise another major question about the direction of Colombia’s
domestic policy.

Prashad expects a substantial transformation of Colombia’s security
apparatus.

“Colombians should expect a substantial militarization and reorientation of
the security apparatus, though not necessarily an across-the-board
expansion of the state,” Prashad said.

“De la Espriella simultaneously promises austerity and cuts to civilian
bureaucracy, so the probable pattern is greater funding and authority for
the military, police, intelligence agencies and prisons at the expense of
peace-building and social programs,” he added.

Early signs of that direction, Prashad said, include proposals for “urban
security defence blocs,” plans for Bukele-style mega-prisons and renewed
aerial coca fumigation.

De la Espriella has also pledged stronger military operations against armed
groups and could transfer the prison service to the Defense Ministry, he
noted.

On his first day in office, he ordered 117 prisoners associated with peace
negotiations to be transferred to high-security facilities. For Prashad,
these measures point to a fundamental departure from Petro’s approach.

“These measures suggest a shift from Petro’s negotiation-based ‘Total
Peace’ policy toward deterrence, incarceration, and territorial military
control,” he said.

*Opposition and human-rights concerns*

Conflict with opposition movements is also probable, Prashad said, noting
that since De la Espriella won the presidency by less than one percentage
point and does not have an uncontested mandate in Congress, his government
could face significant political resistance.

“Human-rights groups, unions, Indigenous organizations, environmental
activists, and the left have already begun forming coalitions to defend
constitutional rights, while his rhetoric depicts parts of the opposition
as allies of disorder or criminality,” he said.

Yet Prashad stressed that a slide toward authoritarianism is not inevitable.

“Colombia’s Constitutional Court, Congress, Procuraduría, Defensoría del
Pueblo, independent media, and the Inter-American human-rights system can
scrutinize decrees and security operations; even established conservative
parties have objected when de la Espriella appeared to weaken civilian
control of the armed forces,” he highlighted.

For Prashad, the decisive question will ultimately be how the government
uses its expanded security powers.

“The decisive test will be whether his government targets demonstrable
criminal conduct under judicial oversight or uses national-security
language to restrict peaceful dissent,” he said.

*Colombia at a political crossroads*

Looking beyond the immediate transition, the bigger question is what
Colombia will look like over the next four to five years under a strongly
pro-US and pro-Israel right-wing government.

Prashad expects the country to move significantly to the right, but argues
that one presidential term alone may not be enough to permanently transform
its political identity.

“De la Espriella can rapidly change foreign policy, policing,
counternarcotics, and energy regulation; transforming Colombian society or
dismantling its institutional pluralism would require sustained
congressional support, popular legitimacy, and results that outlast him,”
he said.

At the same time, Prashad expects de la Espriella to make sweeping changes
to the country’s security and economic direction.

“He will change the security framework of the country, embolden
corporations to loot the economy, become totally pro-Washington in its
foreign policy,” Prashad said.

He also sees the emergence of a new political model that could move beyond
Colombia’s traditional right-wing politics.

The new government, he said, could “replace traditional uribismo with a
more personalist mixture of nationalism, evangelical conservatism,
anti-left rhetoric, and Bukele-style security politics.”

Uribismo refers to the political movement associated with former Colombian
President Álvaro Uribe, whose emphasis on hardline security policies and
opposition to left-wing movements has shaped Colombia’s right for decades.

“Whether this becomes a lasting political transformation depends on
outcomes,” Prashad said.

*The real test: Colombia’s polarization*

Prashad identified the country’s internal political divisions as the
decisive factor.

“The most important test is polarized domestic politics, because it
determines whether the government can address every other challenge,” he
said.

For Prashad, the central question is therefore not simply whether de la
Espriella can implement a more conservative and pro-US agenda. It is
whether he can govern within Colombia’s constitutional framework despite
having won by an extremely narrow margin and facing a deeply divided
society.

“De la Espriella’s defining challenge is whether he can use a narrow
mandate to govern constitutionally, or turn political conflict into a
permanent confrontation between ‘order’ and ‘resistance’,” Prashad said.
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