[News] Hezbollah’s Zero Hour: Why Not Responding to Tabtabai’s Assassination Invites Israeli Occupation of Lebanon

[Anti-Imperialist News]

palestinechronicle.com
<https://www.palestinechronicle.com/hezbollahs-zero-hour-why-not-responding-to-tabtabais-assassination-invites-israeli-occupation-of-lebanon/>
Hezbollah’s Zero Hour: Why Not Responding to Tabtabai’s Assassination
Invites Israeli Occupation of LebanonNovember 24, 2025
------------------------------
Hezbollah's Secretary-General Naim Qassem and Israeli Prime Minister
Benjamin Netanyahu. (Design: Palestine Chronicle)

*By Ramzy Baroud <https://www.palestinechronicle.com/writers/ramzy-baroud>*


If Hezbollah fails to treat the assassination of Haitham Ali Tabtabai as a
non-negotiable red line demanding a decisive response, Israel will
undoubtedly be crowned the victor in Lebanon.

If Hezbollah fails to deliver a decisive response to the Israeli
assassination
<https://www.palestinechronicle.com/hezbollah-confirms-israeli-assassination-of-top-commander-who-is-abu-ali/>
of its senior military commander, Haitham Ali Tabtabai (Sayyed Abu Ali), on
November 23, 2025, Israel will seize upon an irreversible conclusion: the
gates of maximal escalation are now wide open. Furthermore, Israel will
operate under the belief that not even the elimination of the Lebanese
resistance group’s Secretary-General could fundamentally alter the
strategic balance.

But how was this dangerous precipice reached? And what agonizing options
confront Hezbollah?
*Inevitable Post-Truce One-Sided War*

Immediately following the ceasefire agreement
<https://www.palestinechronicle.com/lebanons-late-imperial-ceasefire-package-a-deal-designed-to-fail/>
reached between Israel and Lebanon on November 27, 2024, which concluded a
devastating three-month war between Israel and Hezbollah, Israel exhibited
an immediate intent to escalate.

The subsequent Israeli expansion, which commenced with the occupation of five
locations
<https://www.palestinechronicle.com/israels-deadline-passes-troops-remain-at-5-strategic-points-in-south-lebanon/>,
was directly tethered to the nature of the agreement. This accord extorted
a major concession from the Lebanese resistance: the mandatory withdrawal
of all forces north of the Litani River, a relentless and historical
Israeli objective.
*Israel’s Colonial Obsession with the Litani*

Indeed, since its very inception, Israel has fixated on controlling South
Lebanon, with the Litani River serving as the ultimate territorial marker.

It has repeatedly launched wars and maintained brutal, prolonged
occupations specifically to attain this boundary. The hollow Israeli
justification that this maneuver is a security necessity is unequivocally
false. Instead, the true aim is twofold: linked directly to Israel’s drive
for colonial and territorial expansion, and its desperate, strategic
interest in usurping more sources of water.

While the Lebanese resistance has perpetually striven to liberate every
square inch of Lebanon from Israeli subjugation, the Litani River, owing to
Israel’s objectives, has also become a critical strategic fault line for
the resistance. Therefore, Hezbollah’s retreat north of the Litani
represented a seismic concession, wrung out by multiple, converging
pressure fronts.
*Converging Forces of Erosion*

The first pressure front was the sheer brutality of the war, which resulted
in the slaughter
<https://www.palestinechronicle.com/guardian-investigation-israel-used-banned-cluster-munitions-in-lebanon/>
of over 4,000 people and the grievous wounding of over 17,000 people.

Second, Israel’s successful, targeted campaign to decapitate Hezbollah’s
leadership, culminating in the assassination
<https://www.palestinechronicle.com/our-leader-is-still-among-us-hezbollah-confirms-nasrallahs-assassination-in-israeli-airstrike/>
of iconic Secretary-General Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah on September 27, 2024.
The killing of Haitham Ali Tabtabai—a central figure who had just assumed
supreme military command is the latest stage of this systematic purge of
the military hierarchy.

Third, and perhaps most corrosive, is the ingrained Lebanese disunity and
the overt US, and even Israeli, manipulation of the resistance’s
traditional domestic enemies. These factions eagerly sought a weakened
Hezbollah, viewing its vulnerability as their golden opportunity to savage
a traditional adversary that has fundamentally altered the nation’s
political and demographic power structure.
*The Damascus Factor*

Syria, too, weighs heavily on Hezbollah’s strategic calculus in overlooking
the Israeli ceasefire violations, which now number in the thousands. The
collapse of the former Syrian government, a long-standing ally of Hezbollah
and the indispensable land bridge between Iran and Lebanon, was a crushing
strategic blow.

Compounding this disaster, the new Syrian regime now aligns closely with
Hezbollah’s historical opponents, namely the Gulf region. This regime,
since its ascendancy
<https://www.palestinechronicle.com/overthrow-in-syria-what-does-it-mean/>
in December 2024, has secured the full endorsement of the Trump
Administration.

Despite Syria itself being brazenly violated by Israel numerous times since
the rise of Mohammed Shari’s government, Damascus has offered no meaningful
retaliation to the Israeli incursions and the expanding occupation of
Syria’s southern border areas and the Golan Heights.
*A Nationally and Strategically Exposed Position*

While Hezbollah is believed to have fully rebuilt its core military
capabilities after the war, it remains in a profoundly weakened position,
both nationally and strategically. The latter vulnerability is a direct
consequence of the shifting political dynamics in the Middle East, where
the Arab regimes continue to slavishly execute Washington’s designs, even
at the fatal expense of their own national interests and the region’s
future.

On the national stage, countless forces in Lebanon continue to prioritize
their narrow sectarian political interests over the nation’s survival.
Instead of forging a united front against Israel’s continuous war on the
country—which has inflicted ceaseless deaths, injuries, and the deliberate
targeting of homes and infrastructure—they are instead united in their
opposition to Hezbollah.
*The Fatal Demand for Disarmament*

On September 5, 2025, the Lebanese government, acting under intense
pressure from Washington and its envoy
<https://www.palestinechronicle.com/blackmail-power-and-foreign-policy-the-epstein-barrack-question/>
to Lebanon, Tom Barrack, passed a decision
<https://www.palestinechronicle.com/lebanese-cabinet-backs-army-arms-plan-amid-walkout-by-resistance-ministers/>
to implement UN Resolution 1701 to disarm Hezbollah and fully deploy the
Lebanese Army in the South. The grim, bewildering mockery here is that the
mere attempt to forcibly disarm Hezbollah will almost certainly trigger a
devastating civil war.

Regardless of the ensuing carnage, Israel would then be able to permanently
and uncontestedly seize parts of Lebanon, advancing relentlessly up to the
Litani River. This is the tragic state of affairs in Lebanon, where
national survival is deemed marginal in the face of sectarian rivalries,
allowing foreign powers, starting with the US, to dictate the nation’s
political, economic, and security agendas.
*The Ultimate Test of Will*

Israel assassinated Haitham Ali Tabtabai, a commander vital to the
resistance’s field operations, as the ultimate test of will for Hezbollah
and Lebanon. If Hezbollah retaliates, Israel and its American patrons will
exploit the resulting conflict to fatally weaken the group against its
traditional Lebanese enemies.

But not retaliating is an infinitely greater catastrophe, as it will send
an unmistakable signal to Israel that the time is fully ripe for a major
military conquest, which will inevitably result in the occupation of more
Lebanese territories, progressing inexorably toward the Litani River.

In a blistering address
<https://www.tehrantimes.com/news/511287/Sheikh-Qassem-Hezbollah-patience-not-endless>
delivered last March, Hezbollah Secretary-General Sheikh Naim Qassem issued
a definitive ultimatum, declaring that: “The chance given to the government
to defend Lebanon is not endless, and we are not weak in the face of the
US-Israeli schemes.”

He then dramatically escalated the warning: “If we reach a point where the
Israeli actions are nothing except killing, destruction, and occupation, we
cannot remain spectators. Don’t underestimate our words. If ‘Israel’ does
not comply, we will have no choice but to resort to other options.”

This position has been reiterated relentlessly since that speech, yet the
Lebanese government has proven incapable of defending the nation, and
Israel has only intensified its campaign of killing and property
destruction. If the resistance group fails to treat the assassination of
Haitham Ali Tabtabai as a non-negotiable red line demanding a decisive
response, Israel will undoubtedly be crowned the victor in Lebanon and will
operate with permanent, total impunity. The very future of Lebanon—its
territorial integrity and political sovereignty—is now hanging by a thread.

*(The Palestine Chronicle)*


*– Dr. Ramzy Baroud is a journalist, author and the Editor of The Palestine
Chronicle. He is the author of six books. His forthcoming book, ‘**Before
the Flood*
<https://www.sevenstories.com/books/4779-before-the-flood?srsltid=AfmBOorgPOepR8fLBeCXLViw_awRDNTNNerbwDJ4V2X5Jza-ajlZ6_bm>*,’
will be published by Seven Stories Press. His other books include ‘Our
Vision for Liberation’, ‘My Father was a Freedom Fighter’ and ‘The Last
Earth’. Baroud is a Non-resident Senior Research Fellow at the Center for
Islam and Global Affairs (CIGA). His website is **www.ramzybaroud.net*
<http://www.ramzybaroud.net/>
The views expressed in the article do not necessarily reflect the editorial
position of The Palestine Chronicle.
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