[News] Analysis finds Israeli missile defenses may crumble by day 18 of war

[Anti-Imperialist News]

english.almayadeen.net
<https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/analysis-finds-israeli-missile-defenses-may-crumble-by-day-1>
Analysis finds Israeli missile defenses may crumble by day 18 of war
Al Mayadeen English
June 16, 2025
------------------------------

An OSINT analysis warns that Israel’s missile defense systems could begin
failing around Day 18 if Iran maintains a steady pace of 50–70 ballistic
missile launches per day.

   - [image: Analysis finds Israeli missile defenses may crumble by day 18
   of war]
   <https://alpha-en-media.almayadeen.net/media/image/2025/6/16/2de06206-f7cc-4b25-95cc-78d95a9fc866.jpg?v=3&width=1000>
   The Israeli air defense systems attempted to intercept Iranian missiles
   targeting strategic sites in Tel Aviv, occupied Palestine, on June 15,
   2025. *(AP)*

A military-focused open-source intelligence (OSINT) X account covering the
Middle East and West Asia fronts, @METT_Project, projected that Iranian
ballistic missile strikes could begin significantly breaching "Israel's"
missile defense network around the 18th day of sustained attacks.

In a detailed thread shared on Monday, the account estimated that "Israel"
and allies possess between 950 and 1,120 ballistic missile defense (BMD)
interceptors, including Arrow-2 and Arrow-3 systems, David’s Sling
batteries, a limited number of THAAD launchers deployed in al-Naqab, and
SM-3 and SM-6 interceptors onboard two US Navy destroyers stationed nearby.
A timeline of Israeli air defense depletion

Based on this stockpile, the analysis concluded that defending against a
sustained barrage of 50 to 70 Iranian ballistic missiles per day would
require the expenditure of between 72 and 84 interceptors daily, assuming
an average of 1.2 to 1.4 interceptors needed per missile.
Missile defense to show strain between days 10-15

This level of consumption, according to a best-case projection for the
Israeli side, would result in "Israel’s" BMD grid showing signs of strain
between Days 10 and 15.
Day 18 to potentially show major cracks in layered defenses

Coverage gaps would begin to emerge, and by Day 18, the system would be
approaching a tipping point in which daily missile penetrations would
increase, and priority zones would receive reduced protection. Without
emergency resupply, the grid would face progressive attrition, making it
increasingly vulnerable to sustained salvos.

*Read more: Iranian high-tech strikes breach Israeli air defenses: The
Telegraph <https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/v>*
Why are air defenses doomed to fail?

The thread noted that multiple failures have already occurred, including at
least eight known missile “leakers” and three direct hits near major BMD
nodes, including in the Haifa and the Tel Aviv sectors. Several factors
contributed to these breaches, including saturation from large-scale
barrages, the presence of decoys, timing gaps in the burnout phase of
incoming missiles, and potential performance issues stemming from older
interceptor stocks.

Resupply and logistics are likely to become a critical concern. The Arrow
system requires two to four weeks to replenish, while US-controlled THAAD
and SM-series munitions are subject to regional drawdown limitations. The
Aegis BMD system, used by US Navy warships, cannot be reloaded at sea.

*Read more: Iran arrests Mossad agents, dismantles espionage, drone
networks
<https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/iran-arrests-mossad-agents--dismantles-espionage--drone-netw>*
A recap of expected performance

According to @METT_Project’s projection, the trajectory of the war on Iran
would see "Israel’s" defenses mostly containing missile attacks in the
first ten days. However, in the following five days, signs of strain would
emerge, with coverage gaps and rationing of interceptors. Beyond Day 18,
interceptor depletion and system fatigue would allow Iranian missiles to
achieve deeper and more frequent penetrations.

The analysis conducted by METT assumes that the Iranian Armed Forces will
maintain a 50-70 missile launches a day and that no additional air defense
batteries will be incorporated into the Israeli BMD.

*Read more: Haifa refinery facilities shut down amid damage from Iranian
strike
<https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/haifa-refinery-facilities-shut-down-amid-damage-from-iranian>*
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