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<a class="gmail-domain gmail-reader-domain" href="https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/analysis-finds-israeli-missile-defenses-may-crumble-by-day-1">english.almayadeen.net</a>
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<h1 class="gmail-reader-title">Analysis finds Israeli missile defenses may crumble by day 18 of war</h1>
<div class="gmail-credits gmail-reader-credits">Al Mayadeen English</div>
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<div class="gmail-reader-estimated-time">June 16, 2025</div>
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<div class="gmail-moz-reader-content gmail-reader-show-element"><div id="gmail-readability-page-1" class="gmail-page"><p>An
OSINT analysis warns that Israel\u2019s missile defense systems could begin
failing around Day 18 if Iran maintains a steady pace of 50\u201370 ballistic
missile launches per day.</p><div><ul id="gmail-content-slick-0"><div aria-hidden="false"><li>
<a href="https://alpha-en-media.almayadeen.net/media/image/2025/6/16/2de06206-f7cc-4b25-95cc-78d95a9fc866.jpg?v=3&width=1000" tabindex="0"><img src="https://alpha-en-media.almayadeen.net/media/image/2025/6/16/2de06206-f7cc-4b25-95cc-78d95a9fc866.jpg?v=3&width=1000&preset=w700" alt="Analysis finds Israeli missile defenses may crumble by day 18 of war" class="gmail-moz-reader-block-img"></a>
The Israeli air defense systems attempted to intercept
Iranian missiles targeting strategic sites in Tel Aviv, occupied
Palestine, on June 15, 2025. <em>(AP)</em>
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<p>A military-focused open-source intelligence (OSINT) X account
covering the Middle East and West Asia fronts, @METT_Project, projected
that Iranian ballistic missile strikes could begin significantly
breaching "Israel's" missile defense network around the 18th day of
sustained attacks.</p>
<p>In a detailed thread shared on Monday, the account estimated that
"Israel" and allies possess between 950 and 1,120 ballistic missile
defense (BMD) interceptors, including Arrow-2 and Arrow-3 systems,
David\u2019s Sling batteries, a limited number of THAAD launchers deployed in
al-Naqab, and SM-3 and SM-6 interceptors onboard two US Navy destroyers
stationed nearby.</p>
<h2>A timeline of Israeli air defense depletion</h2>
<p>Based on this stockpile, the analysis concluded that defending
against a sustained barrage of 50 to 70 Iranian ballistic missiles per
day would require the expenditure of between 72 and 84 interceptors
daily, assuming an average of 1.2 to 1.4 interceptors needed per
missile.</p>
<h3>Missile defense to show strain between days 10-15</h3>
<p>This level of consumption, according to a best-case projection for
the Israeli side, would result in "Israel\u2019s" BMD grid showing signs of
strain between Days 10 and 15.</p>
<h3>Day 18 to potentially show major cracks in layered defenses</h3>
<p>Coverage gaps would begin to emerge, and by Day 18, the system would
be approaching a tipping point in which daily missile penetrations would
increase, and priority zones would receive reduced protection. Without
emergency resupply, the grid would face progressive attrition, making it
increasingly vulnerable to sustained salvos.</p>
<p><strong>Read more: <a href="https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/v" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Iranian high-tech strikes breach Israeli air defenses: The Telegraph</a></strong></p>
<h2>Why are air defenses doomed to fail?</h2>
<p>The thread noted that multiple failures have already occurred,
including at least eight known missile \u201cleakers\u201d and three direct hits
near major BMD nodes, including in the Haifa and the Tel Aviv sectors.
Several factors contributed to these breaches, including saturation from
large-scale barrages, the presence of decoys, timing gaps in the
burnout phase of incoming missiles, and potential performance issues
stemming from older interceptor stocks.</p>
<p>Resupply and logistics are likely to become a critical concern. The
Arrow system requires two to four weeks to replenish, while
US-controlled THAAD and SM-series munitions are subject to regional
drawdown limitations. The Aegis BMD system, used by US Navy warships,
cannot be reloaded at sea.</p>
<p><strong>Read more: <a href="https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/iran-arrests-mossad-agents--dismantles-espionage--drone-netw" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Iran arrests Mossad agents, dismantles espionage, drone networks</a></strong></p>
<h2>A recap of expected performance</h2>
<p>According to @METT_Project\u2019s projection, the trajectory of the war on
Iran would see "Israel\u2019s" defenses mostly containing missile attacks in
the first ten days. However, in the following five days, signs of
strain would emerge, with coverage gaps and rationing of interceptors.
Beyond Day 18, interceptor depletion and system fatigue would allow
Iranian missiles to achieve deeper and more frequent penetrations.</p>
<p>The analysis conducted by METT assumes that the Iranian Armed Forces
will maintain a 50-70 missile launches a day and that no additional air
defense batteries will be incorporated into the Israeli BMD.</p>
<p><strong>Read more: <a href="https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/haifa-refinery-facilities-shut-down-amid-damage-from-iranian" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Haifa refinery facilities shut down amid damage from Iranian strike</a></strong></p></div></div></div>
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