[News] Both sides recalibrate as the Iran–Israel war enters a new phase

[Anti-Imperialist News]

 Both sides recalibrate as the Iran–Israel war enters a new phase

Last month’s ceasefire marked not an end to hostilities, but a shift into a
more dangerous, ambiguous phase of the conflict between Tehran and Tel
Aviv. Both sides are recalibrating strategies, but the war – covert, cyber,
and psychological – is far from over.

Mohamad Hasan Sweidan <https://thecradle.co/authors/mohamad-hasan-sweidan>

JUL 14, 2025 -
https://thecradle.co/articles/both-sides-recalibrate-as-the-iran-israel-war-enters-a-new-phase
Photo Credit: The Cradle

The June 2025 12-day war between Iran and the Israeli occupation state tore
through decades of covert strikes, red lines, and foreign-managed
restraint.

In less than two weeks, Iran's missiles reached Tel Aviv, and Israeli jets
struck deep into Iranian territory, essentially transforming what had long
simmered into a direct and public war.

The so-called ceasefire
<https://thecradle.co/articles/iran-denies-launching-missiles-after-trump-imposed-ceasefire-with-israel>
that followed was not a breakthrough, but a breather. Both sides are now
repositioning for a long confrontation that will span the region, redraw
alliances, and test the limits of US dominance in West Asia.

*A clash of agendas in Washington *

With Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s US visit
<https://thecradle.co/articles/netanyahu-vows-to-achieve-all-war-goals-in-gaza-after-trump-meeting>
concluded, Iran policy remains a point of friction between Tel Aviv and
Washington. US President Donald Trump, increasingly cautious about further
regional entanglements, favors a narrow strategy focused on preventing a
nuclear breakout without committing to deeper military engagement.

Netanyahu, meanwhile, returned from Washington pressing for a far more
confrontational approach – one that seeks to accelerate internal collapse
<https://thecradle.co/articles/israels-war-on-iran-was-never-just-about-nukes>
in the Islamic Republic.

Leaks from the Netanyahu–Trump meetings point to diverging priorities
<https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-israel-diverge-how-pursue-iran-endgame-after-strikes-diplomats-say-2025-07-08/>.
This divide reflects more than tactical disagreements, signaling opposing
political endgames. For Trump, diplomacy is a tool to manage escalation.
For Netanyahu, confrontation is the strategy itself. Tel Aviv demands
capitulation rather than containment.

*Lessons from war*

The 12-day war marked the first extended direct military confrontation
between Iran and the occupation state. While previous encounters relied on
intelligence warfare and proxy clashes, this conflict escalated into
full-scale missile and drone exchanges.

Israeli airstrikes targeted nuclear facilities and critical infrastructure
deep inside Iran. Meanwhile, Iranian ballistic missiles and drones
penetrated Israeli airspace, hitting military and intelligence sites
<https://thecradle.co/articles/high-profile-israeli-military-intelligence-sites-hit-by-iranian-missiles-report>,
including in Tel Aviv.

The war shattered long-held assumptions. Iran struck the largest US base in
West Asia
<https://thecradle.co/articles/satellite-images-show-iran-destroyed-communications-site-at-us-base-in-qatar>
– Al-Udeid base in Qatar – signaling its willingness to hit Washington
directly in response to US strikes on several Iranian nuclear facilities.

The US, for its part, flexed its capacity to engage Iran militarily, but
stopped short of prolonged conflict. Both sides, drawing on Thomas
Schelling's “calculated risk
<https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S2949836824000046#:~:text=In%20his%20pioneering%20book%20The,illustrated%20by%20Schelling's%20haggling%20metaphor:>”
theory, aimed to demonstrate capability and resolve without crossing the
threshold into full-blown war.

Drawing on his concept of “cost-equivalence,” Kenneth Waltz's observation
<https://theasrudiancenter.wordpress.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/kenneth-waltz.pdf?>
that “War becomes less likely as the costs of war rise in relation to
possible gains,” helps explain why the US backed off. Tehran made clear
that a wider American attack would be met with regional retaliation,
threatening energy markets
<https://thecradle.co/articles/a-global-oil-and-gas-catastrophe-has-been-averted-for-now>
and US troops. This reality, more than any pacifist impulse, informed
Trump's pivot to diplomacy.

Three critical lessons emerged:

1. Israel's limits

Despite initial success
<https://www.rferl.org/a/israel-iran-ceasefire-analysis-military-nuclear/33453782.html>,
including precision strikes enabled by Mossad's deep infiltration of
Iranian intelligence, the occupation state failed to cripple Iran's nuclear
program. Iran exposed the weaknesses of Israel's much-touted multi-layered
missile defense.

A sustained missile barrage overwhelmed the Iron Dome and its counterparts,
proving that Tel Aviv cannot strike with impunity. As Israel's Institute
for National Security Studies (INSS) admitted
<https://www.inss.org.il/publication/israel-iran-war/>, Iran can “inflict
significant damage on Israel in return,” despite its technological
superiority.

2. Iran's vulnerabilities

Tehran, too, identified weaknesses – particularly in air defense and
internal security. The Islamic Republic is now expected to expedite its
acquisition of advanced Russian or Chinese defense systems
<https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/iran-receives-chinese-surface-air-missile-batteries-after-israel-ceasefire-say-sources>,
tighten internal counter-intelligence, and bolster the resilience of its
missile systems.

3. Washington's red lines

The war reminded Israeli leaders that American political and military
support – or its withdrawal – could determine how far Israel would go
against Iran. The Trump administration, while sympathetic to Israel's
broader goals, clearly wanted to avoid a prolonged war.

After assisting Israel in striking Iranian nuclear facilities, Trump
effectively bought himself a “soft exit” by declaring the mission
accomplished and pushing for a ceasefire. This, according
<https://www.inss.org.il/publication/israel-iran-war/#:~:text=enriched%20to%2090,do%20the%20same%20if%20necessary>
to INSS, meant that Washington might use force to stop an Iranian nuclear
breakout, but not to overthrow the Iranian government or wage an open war
on Israel's behalf.

*Tel Aviv's long war strategy*

Post-ceasefire, Israel's strategic objective remains constant: undermine
Iran's rise, thwart its nuclear and regional ambitions, and foster
conditions for internal collapse. But Tel Aviv knows another major war
could backfire.

Thus, covert operations are once again front and center. Mossad's
wartime assassinations
of over a dozen
<https://thecradle.co/articles/israels-war-on-irans-scientific-resistance-inside-the-targeted-killings-of-nuclear-minds>
senior Iranian scientists demonstrate the scale and precision of these
efforts. Cyber sabotage, too, has intensified, with operations designed to
sow fear and uncertainty within Iranian institutions. Tehran's post-war
crackdown
<https://thecradle.co/articles/iran-cracks-down-on-mossad-assets-throughout-the-country>
– including hundreds of espionage arrests – suggests awareness of the
growing threat.

Airstrikes may also resume sporadically, mimicking the “mowing the grass
<https://thecradle.co/articles-id/19282>” approach used against Hamas and
Hezbollah. These are calibrated to destroy rebuilt infrastructure while
avoiding all-out war. Yet, each strike risks retaliation and wider
escalation, especially if US red lines are crossed.

Cyberwarfare, with its deniability and disruptive power, is an increasingly
central pillar. But it is a double-edged sword: Iran's growing cyber
arsenal, demonstrated <https://thecradle.co/articles-id/31470> during and
after the war, threatens critical Israeli systems.

Tel Aviv may also invest in stirring internal unrest inside Iran. This
includes bolstering opposition groups and exploiting ethnic tensions in
restive provinces like Ahvaz, Balochistan, Western Kurdistan, and
Azeri-majority areas. However, the war temporarily unified Iranian society
around the state, limiting the effectiveness of these schemes.

The occupation state aims to prolong the confrontation without triggering a
regional conflagration – bleeding Iran slowly through assassinations, cyber
strikes, and psychological warfare.

The goal is not victory through battle, but collapse through exhaustion
akin to ‘boiling the frog <https://thecradle.co/articles-id/24219>’: grind
down Iran’s defences, unravel its alliances, and wait for the pressure to
fracture the state from within.

*Tehran adapts*

For Iran, the war served as a wake-up call. The post-ceasefire phase is not
peace, but rearmament and recalibration. While Tehran lacks Israel's
intelligence footprint in occupied Palestine, it has other tools.

Domestically, the Islamic Republic has intensified its crackdown on
infiltration with over 700 espionage arrests, six Mossad agents executed,
and new legislation <https://www.iranintl.com/en/202506291255> imposing the
death penalty for aiding the occupation state, the US, and their allies as
tantamount to “corruption on earth.” The Iranian nation is fortifying
itself.

In cyberspace, Iran's arsenal is becoming formidable. Thousands of hacked
Israeli documents
<https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/6/8/iran-says-israeli-treasure-trove-of-secret-documents-to-be-unveiled-soon>,
data leaks
<https://www.newarab.com/news/iranian-hack-leaks-data-israeli-soldiers-drone-operators>
on occupation soldiers, sabotage of radar and surveillance systems, and
cyberattacks on critical infrastructure marked a qualitative leap. Tehran
can now strike deep inside Israel without launching a single missile.

Regionally, Iran will lean into the familiar territory of asymmetric
deterrence. This includes backing resistance allies in Lebanon, Iraq, and
Yemen, enhancing missile accuracy and air defenses, and continuing cyber
pressure. Tehran's aim is to raise the cost of Israeli aggression while
avoiding direct escalation – until it is ready.

The war has shifted from overt confrontation to a battle of attrition and
intelligence. Neither side has emerged victorious. But both are preparing
for the next round.
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