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<div class="gmail-inner-article-top"><h1 class="gmail-">Both sides recalibrate as the Iran\u2013Israel war enters a new phase</h1><p class="gmail-">Last
month\u2019s ceasefire marked not an end to hostilities, but a shift into a
more dangerous, ambiguous phase of the conflict between Tehran and Tel
Aviv. Both sides are recalibrating strategies, but the war \u2013 covert,
cyber, and psychological \u2013 is far from over.</p><div class="gmail-another-name"><br><p><a href="https://thecradle.co/authors/mohamad-hasan-sweidan" style="color:rgb(164,4,4)">Mohamad Hasan Sweidan</a></p></div><div class="gmail-another-name" style="margin-top:16px"><p><span style="color:rgb(84,88,94)">JUL 14, 2025 -<font size="1"> </font></span><font size="1"><a href="https://thecradle.co/articles/both-sides-recalibrate-as-the-iran-israel-war-enters-a-new-phase">https://thecradle.co/articles/both-sides-recalibrate-as-the-iran-israel-war-enters-a-new-phase</a></font></p></div></div><div class="gmail-inner-article-img"><img src="https://thecradle-main.oss-eu-central-1.aliyuncs.com/public/articles/d4404e66-60ca-11f0-943b-00163e02c055.webp" alt="" width="467" height="221" style="margin-right: 0px;"><span>Photo Credit: The Cradle</span></div><div class="gmail-inner-article-content"><div class="gmail-row"><div class="gmail-col-md-8 gmail-col-sm-7"><div class="gmail-article-content"><span class="gmail-article-body"><p>The
June 2025 12-day war between Iran and the Israeli occupation state tore
through decades of covert strikes, red lines, and foreign-managed
restraint. </p><p>In less than two weeks, Iran's missiles reached Tel
Aviv, and Israeli jets struck deep into Iranian territory, essentially
transforming what had long simmered into a direct and public war. </p><p>The so-called <a href="https://thecradle.co/articles/iran-denies-launching-missiles-after-trump-imposed-ceasefire-with-israel">ceasefire</a>
that followed was not a breakthrough, but a breather. Both sides are
now repositioning for a long confrontation that will span the region,
redraw alliances, and test the limits of US dominance in West Asia.</p><p><strong>A clash of agendas in Washington </strong></p><p>With Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu\u2019s <a href="https://thecradle.co/articles/netanyahu-vows-to-achieve-all-war-goals-in-gaza-after-trump-meeting">US visit</a>
concluded, Iran policy remains a point of friction between Tel Aviv and
Washington. US President Donald Trump, increasingly cautious about
further regional entanglements, favors a narrow strategy focused on
preventing a nuclear breakout without committing to deeper military
engagement. </p><p>Netanyahu, meanwhile, returned from Washington pressing for a far more confrontational approach \u2013 one that seeks to accelerate <a href="https://thecradle.co/articles/israels-war-on-iran-was-never-just-about-nukes">internal collapse</a> in the Islamic Republic.</p><p>Leaks from the Netanyahu\u2013Trump meetings point to <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-israel-diverge-how-pursue-iran-endgame-after-strikes-diplomats-say-2025-07-08/">diverging priorities</a>.
This divide reflects more than tactical disagreements, signaling
opposing political endgames. For Trump, diplomacy is a tool to manage
escalation. For Netanyahu, confrontation is the strategy itself. Tel
Aviv demands capitulation rather than containment. </p><p><strong>Lessons from war</strong></p><p>The
12-day war marked the first extended direct military confrontation
between Iran and the occupation state. While previous encounters relied
on intelligence warfare and proxy clashes, this conflict escalated into
full-scale missile and drone exchanges. </p><p>Israeli airstrikes
targeted nuclear facilities and critical infrastructure deep inside
Iran. Meanwhile, Iranian ballistic missiles and drones penetrated
Israeli airspace, hitting <a href="https://thecradle.co/articles/high-profile-israeli-military-intelligence-sites-hit-by-iranian-missiles-report">military and intelligence sites</a>, including in Tel Aviv.</p><p>The war shattered long-held assumptions. Iran struck the <a href="https://thecradle.co/articles/satellite-images-show-iran-destroyed-communications-site-at-us-base-in-qatar">largest US base in West Asia</a>
\u2013 Al-Udeid base in Qatar \u2013 signaling its willingness to hit Washington
directly in response to US strikes on several Iranian nuclear
facilities. </p><p>The US, for its part, flexed its capacity to engage
Iran militarily, but stopped short of prolonged conflict. Both sides,
drawing on Thomas Schelling's \u201c<a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S2949836824000046#:~:text=In%20his%20pioneering%20book%20The,illustrated%20by%20Schelling's%20haggling%20metaphor:">calculated risk</a>\u201d theory, aimed to demonstrate capability and resolve without crossing the threshold into full-blown war.</p><p>Drawing on his concept of \u201ccost-equivalence,\u201d Kenneth Waltz's <a href="https://theasrudiancenter.wordpress.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/kenneth-waltz.pdf?">observation</a>
that \u201cWar becomes less likely as the costs of war rise in relation to
possible gains,\u201d helps explain why the US backed off. Tehran made clear
that a wider American attack would be met with regional retaliation,
threatening <a href="https://thecradle.co/articles/a-global-oil-and-gas-catastrophe-has-been-averted-for-now">energy markets</a> and US troops. This reality, more than any pacifist impulse, informed Trump's pivot to diplomacy.</p><p>Three critical lessons emerged: </p><p>1. Israel's limits</p><p>Despite <a href="https://www.rferl.org/a/israel-iran-ceasefire-analysis-military-nuclear/33453782.html">initial success</a>,
including precision strikes enabled by Mossad's deep infiltration of
Iranian intelligence, the occupation state failed to cripple Iran's
nuclear program. Iran exposed the weaknesses of Israel's much-touted
multi-layered missile defense. </p><p>A sustained missile barrage
overwhelmed the Iron Dome and its counterparts, proving that Tel Aviv
cannot strike with impunity. As Israel's Institute for National Security
Studies (INSS) <a href="https://www.inss.org.il/publication/israel-iran-war/">admitted</a>, Iran can \u201cinflict significant damage on Israel in return,\u201d despite its technological superiority. </p><p>2. Iran's vulnerabilities </p><p>Tehran,
too, identified weaknesses \u2013 particularly in air defense and internal
security. The Islamic Republic is now expected to expedite its
acquisition of advanced Russian or <a href="https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/iran-receives-chinese-surface-air-missile-batteries-after-israel-ceasefire-say-sources">Chinese defense systems</a>, tighten internal counter-intelligence, and bolster the resilience of its missile systems.</p><p>3. Washington's red lines </p><p>The
war reminded Israeli leaders that American political and military
support \u2013 or its withdrawal \u2013 could determine how far Israel would go
against Iran. The Trump administration, while sympathetic to Israel's
broader goals, clearly wanted to avoid a prolonged war. </p><p>After
assisting Israel in striking Iranian nuclear facilities, Trump
effectively bought himself a \u201csoft exit\u201d by declaring the mission
accomplished and pushing for a ceasefire. This, <a href="https://www.inss.org.il/publication/israel-iran-war/#:~:text=enriched%20to%2090,do%20the%20same%20if%20necessary">according</a>
to INSS, meant that Washington might use force to stop an Iranian
nuclear breakout, but not to overthrow the Iranian government or wage an
open war on Israel's behalf.</p><p><strong>Tel Aviv's long war strategy</strong></p><p>Post-ceasefire,
Israel's strategic objective remains constant: undermine Iran's rise,
thwart its nuclear and regional ambitions, and foster conditions for
internal collapse. But Tel Aviv knows another major war could backfire.</p><p>Thus, covert operations are once again front and center. Mossad's wartime <a href="https://thecradle.co/articles/israels-war-on-irans-scientific-resistance-inside-the-targeted-killings-of-nuclear-minds">assassinations of over a dozen</a>
senior Iranian scientists demonstrate the scale and precision of these
efforts. Cyber sabotage, too, has intensified, with operations designed
to sow fear and uncertainty within Iranian institutions. Tehran's
post-war <a href="https://thecradle.co/articles/iran-cracks-down-on-mossad-assets-throughout-the-country">crackdown</a> \u2013 including hundreds of espionage arrests \u2013 suggests awareness of the growing threat.</p><p>Airstrikes may also resume sporadically, mimicking the \u201c<a href="https://thecradle.co/articles-id/19282">mowing the grass</a>\u201d
approach used against Hamas and Hezbollah. These are calibrated to
destroy rebuilt infrastructure while avoiding all-out war. Yet, each
strike risks retaliation and wider escalation, especially if US red
lines are crossed.</p><p>Cyberwarfare, with its deniability and
disruptive power, is an increasingly central pillar. But it is a
double-edged sword: Iran's growing cyber arsenal, <a href="https://thecradle.co/articles-id/31470">demonstrated</a> during and after the war, threatens critical Israeli systems.</p><p>Tel
Aviv may also invest in stirring internal unrest inside Iran. This
includes bolstering opposition groups and exploiting ethnic tensions in
restive provinces like Ahvaz, Balochistan, Western Kurdistan, and
Azeri-majority areas. However, the war temporarily unified Iranian
society around the state, limiting the effectiveness of these schemes.</p><p>The
occupation state aims to prolong the confrontation without triggering a
regional conflagration \u2013 bleeding Iran slowly through assassinations,
cyber strikes, and psychological warfare. </p><p>The goal is not victory through battle, but collapse through exhaustion akin to \u2018<a href="https://thecradle.co/articles-id/24219">boiling the frog</a>\u2019: grind down Iran\u2019s defences, unravel its alliances, and wait for the pressure to fracture the state from within.</p><p><strong>Tehran adapts</strong></p><p>For
Iran, the war served as a wake-up call. The post-ceasefire phase is not
peace, but rearmament and recalibration. While Tehran lacks Israel's
intelligence footprint in occupied Palestine, it has other tools.</p><p>Domestically,
the Islamic Republic has intensified its crackdown on infiltration with
over 700 espionage arrests, six Mossad agents executed, and <a href="https://www.iranintl.com/en/202506291255">new legislation</a>
imposing the death penalty for aiding the occupation state, the US, and
their allies as tantamount to \u201ccorruption on earth.\u201d The Iranian nation
is fortifying itself.</p><p>In cyberspace, Iran's arsenal is becoming formidable. Thousands of <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/6/8/iran-says-israeli-treasure-trove-of-secret-documents-to-be-unveiled-soon">hacked Israeli documents</a>, <a href="https://www.newarab.com/news/iranian-hack-leaks-data-israeli-soldiers-drone-operators">data leaks</a>
on occupation soldiers, sabotage of radar and surveillance systems, and
cyberattacks on critical infrastructure marked a qualitative leap.
Tehran can now strike deep inside Israel without launching a single
missile.</p><p>Regionally, Iran will lean into the familiar territory of
asymmetric deterrence. This includes backing resistance allies in
Lebanon, Iraq, and Yemen, enhancing missile accuracy and air defenses,
and continuing cyber pressure. Tehran's aim is to raise the cost of
Israeli aggression while avoiding direct escalation \u2013 until it is ready.</p><p>The
war has shifted from overt confrontation to a battle of attrition and
intelligence. Neither side has emerged victorious. But both are
preparing for the next round.</p></span></div></div></div></div>
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