[News] Hezbollah's Options: 95,000 Are Still Waiting

[Anti-Imperialist News]

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Hezbollah's Options: 95,000 Are Still Waiting
January 13, 2025
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Hezbollah Secretary-General, Naim Qassem. (Photo: video grab, via
Al-Mayadeen)

*By Palestine Chronicle Staff
<https://www.palestinechronicle.com/writers/palestine-chronicle-staff>*

Ahmad Abdel Rahman writes in Al Mayadeen Arabic website, analyzing the
potential strategies Hezbollah could adopt in response to Israel’s failure
to fully implement the ceasefire agreement.

In recent weeks, especially after the suspension of the ceasefire agreement
between the occupation army and Hezbollah, many in the region and worldwide
have been analyzing and interpreting the true events that took place on the
northern front of occupied Palestine, as well as on the Lebanese front
opposite it, and the resulting consequences, which may arise from the tough
battle fought there.

Many analysts have adopted the hypothesis of Hezbollah’s retreat after the
losses it suffered at the leadership level, including its
Secretary-General, the martyr Sayyid Hassan Nasrallah.

Some prominent analysts even went so far as to claim that the party would
never recover, and that it would experience further setbacks in the coming
period, particularly after the dramatic shift in Syria, starting with its
alleged abandonment of its candidate for the Lebanese presidency, Minister
Suleiman Frangieh, and its reluctant acceptance of Army Commander Joseph
Aoun, who was elected last Thursday, and who is said to be supported by
Saudi Arabia and the United States.

*Hezbollah’s Silence*

In contrast to all these analyses that have been echoed on major television
networks, accompanied by leaks, interpretations, and claims, as well as the
official statements from Israel, including those from its Prime Minister
and the past and current defense ministers, Hezbollah has remained largely
silent. It preferred to let others speak as they wished, while it itself
observed, monitored, and assessed the situation. Moreover, according to
informed sources, the party has begun working at various levels, with
remarkable speed and efficiency.

On the one hand, it began assessing the damages, providing aid to all those
affected by the aggression, and evaluating the extent of the harm to its
military and security infrastructures. It worked to compensate for a large
portion of the losses and shortages caused by the aggression and filled all
vacancies in its structure—politically, militarily, security-wise,
media-wise, and socially—overcoming all obstacles that some attempted to
place in its way, including efforts to prevent the flow of funds necessary
to begin reconstruction and compensate the families of martyrs and the
injured.

*The Upcoming Deadline*

In less than ten days, Hezbollah, in particular, and the Lebanese people
and the region in general, will face an important deadline, as the
sixty-day ceasefire agreed upon will end on the 20th of this month. This is
expected to be followed by steps for the complete withdrawal of the
occupation army from the Lebanese villages and towns it has occupied, which
it increased its incursion into after the agreement went into effect. The
task of implementation has been entrusted to the countries that guaranteed
the agreement and the Lebanese state, leading to complete and sustainable
calm.

*Israeli Violations*

However, a review of the Israeli and American statements and leaks over the
past two weeks indicates that the upcoming phase could bring unforeseen
surprises that many, both in Lebanon and the region, hope to avoid. Any
Israeli violation of the terms of the agreement could open the door to dire
consequences. This concern, in particular, has prompted the French and
Americans to act early to prevent matters from spiraling out of control and
to avoid a return to tensions and conflict, which could potentially be
broader and more widespread than before.

*The Zionist Deception*

Given all of this, and in light of our understanding of the deceptive
nature of the Zionist enemy, as is often the case, and its potential to
renege on its commitments, especially with the increased confidence it may
have following the rise of Donald Trump, a trusted friend of Israel, to
power in the strongest country in the world, we believe that Hezbollah will
be compelled to take some form of action in response to any Israeli
hesitation or delay regarding the issue of withdrawal, especially
considering the ongoing acts of aggression, such as bombings and the
destruction of Lebanese citizens’ homes, and the airstrikes against some of
the targets that Israel claims are military.

*Hezbollah’s Options*

>From our perspective, Hezbollah has three main options it could resort to
if Israel retreats from fully implementing the agreement or violates, at
the very least, some of the required measures. These options will certainly
have consequences, both for Hezbollah specifically and for the Lebanese
state and the broader region.

*Option 1: Passing to the State*

Many countries in the region and the world, as well as Lebanese opponents
of Hezbollah, particularly those from the March 14 coalition, have long
called for giving the Lebanese state a chance to manage the country’s
affairs without the resistance’s weapon, and for allowing the Lebanese army
time to exert control over all of Lebanon’s geography, including the
southern areas. In this, they do not wish for Lebanon’s welfare at all, as
they know that Israel respects only the strong and does not give weight to
any of the region’s armies or regimes, especially those that have tied
their decisions to foreign forces that oppose resistance, primarily the
United States.

Although Hezbollah knows better than anyone else that the Lebanese state is
weak and torn by the interests of major powers that control many political
decisions in the country through financial means, it might resort to giving
more time after the sixty-day ceasefire ends and pass the ball to the
state, the army, and the intermediary countries to implement what was
agreed upon on November 27, especially after the new president was elected
in Lebanon. This may push the guarantor powers to exert more pressure on
Israel to abide by the terms of the agreement.

*Option 2: Combat in Occupied Areas*

This option, in particular, holds significant legitimacy both locally and
internationally. Any delay or hesitation by Israel in withdrawing from all
the Lebanese territories it recently occupied, or any imposition of new
political or military realities, would constitute a violation of the
agreement and a denial of the principles established. As a result,
Hezbollah and other Lebanese resistance groups would be free to resume
fighting at the moment of their choosing, whether immediately after the
ceasefire ends or at a later time.

This option is likely to focus on the areas that Israel refuses to withdraw
from, which, according to some Israeli and American media, are three
regions considered vital due to their oversight of Israeli settlements and
military sites near the northern border of occupied Palestine.

What strengthens the possibility of this option is a recent statement from
Hezbollah’s Deputy Secretary-General, Mahmoud Qamati, who said, “If the
Israeli army does not withdraw from the country after 60 days of the
ceasefire agreement, it means the forces present are occupying forces, and
we will treat them as such.”

*Option 3: Full-Scale Combat*

Since the extremist right-wing government in Israel seeks to prolong the
conflict in the region to serve its expansionist and aggressive agendas, as
well as to protect Netanyahu’s embattled interests, it could, in the event
Hezbollah opts to fight again in the areas where occupation forces are
stationed inside Lebanese territory, escalate its aggression once more and
extend it to include all of Lebanese territory. This would rely on the
assumption that Hezbollah’s land supply line from Syria has been severed
and that it has sustained significant damage to its military
infrastructure, particularly its precise and long-range missile systems.

Should this occur, Hezbollah would be forced to engage in a large-scale
battle similar to the previous phase. Israeli settlements, whose residents
still fear returning due to the possibility of renewed conflict, as well as
more distant cities like Haifa and Acre, up to Tel Aviv and its
surroundings, would find themselves once again at the center of the
conflict, with their residents returning to hearing sirens and rushing to
shelters, morning and night, in a nightmare no Israeli wishes to revisit.

*The Road Ahead*

In any case, regardless of which option Hezbollah chooses if the enemy
reneges on the agreement and refuses to adhere to its terms, whether it
opts for one of the options mentioned above or other options, it deems more
appropriate, the region remains on edge, with the possibility of a
large-scale confrontation still very real, especially in light of the
continued aggression against Gaza and the failure to reach a ceasefire
agreement to end the war and aggression, at least for now.

Whether this potential confrontation with Lebanon is wide or limited in
scale, Israel will not emerge victorious in any case. Its lies, repeated
daily about Hezbollah’s diminished fighting ability and the collapse of its
key structures due to the strikes it has endured, will not lead to a clear
or decisive victory. On the contrary, it will suffer further blows, face
more disappointments, and will eventually be forced to submit to the just
and legitimate terms of the resistance.

In one of the speeches by Sayyid Hassan Nasrallah, he said: “Hezbollah has
one hundred thousand trained fighters, ready for battle under any
circumstances.”

Assuming the party lost four thousand of them after the brutal pager
attacks, and at most one thousand more in the battles before or after that
attack, Hezbollah still has about 95,000 skilled and capable fighters, who,
as everyone knows, are ready to fight to the last breath. The recent battle
revealed a part of the courage, valor, and martyrdom spirit of these
fighters, which is unmatched.

These fighters, along with tens of thousands of other resistance forces in
Lebanon, will make any Israeli foolishness an act of madness and will
undoubtedly hasten the downfall of the extremist and criminal Zionist
coalition in this rogue state, which will not be saved by the threats from
the new occupant of the White House or his irrational and crazy boasts.

*(Al Mayadeen Arabic website – Translated and prepared by the Palestine
Chronicle)*

*(The views expressed in the article do not necessarily reflect the
editorial position of The Palestine Chronicle.)*
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