[News] The War Front: Week of 7 October, 2024
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Sat Oct 12 14:50:20 EDT 2024
The War Front: Week of 7 October, 2024
In the past week, signs have emerged that Hezbollah has revived from
Israel's relentless blows to its leadership and ranks, and that the
resistance maintains command and control over the battle. This is the first
in The Cradle's series of war updates for the duration of the Israel-Axis
battle.
The Cradle's Military Correspondent
<https://thecradle.co/authors/the-cradles-military-correspondent>
OCT 12, 2024 -
https://thecradle.co/articles/the-war-front-week-of-7-october-2024
Photo Credit: The Cradle
The scene in southern Lebanon has recurred daily for about ten days.
Israeli bombs target Lebanese villages, kill civilians, and enemy land
forces fail to penetrate territory. Hezbollah fighters remain vigilant to
prevent any invasion of the border areas, galvanized by both grief and
anger over the Israeli assassinations of their late Secretary-General
Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah and other top military and political leaders.
Since the announcement of the ground operation, dubbed “Arrows of the
North” and described as “limited” in scope by Tel Aviv in an attempt to
downplay its objectives, Israel's stated goals are to “strike the military
infrastructure” of Hezbollah - a task it found difficult during similar
battles in southern Lebanon during the July 2006 war.
This time around, on just the second day of the Israeli operation, the
occupation army announced the killing of 8 officers and soldiers
<https://www.alhurra.com/lebanon/2024/10/02/%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AC%D9%8A%D8%B4-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A5%D8%B3%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%A6%D9%8A%D9%84%D9%8A-%D9%8A%D8%B9%D9%84%D9%86-%D9%85%D9%82%D8%AA%D9%84-8-%D8%AC%D9%86%D9%88%D8%AF-%D8%A8%D8%A7%D8%B4%D8%AA%D8%A8%D8%A7%D9%83%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D9%81%D9%8A-%D9%84%D8%A8%D9%86%D8%A7%D9%86>
from its "Egoz" commando unit during a clash with resistance fighters.
Israel's concern about the ground battle becomes clear when examining the
number of divisions it flung into the battle and the quality of their
training. Each of these divisions has been tasked with a battalion area of
responsibility in terms of tactical penetration of Lebanese territory.
*What teams does Israel rely on?*
- 36th Division (Al-Barkan): The largest armored division in regular
service in the Armored Corps
<https://www.aljazeera.net/encyclopedia/2023/11/4/%D8%B3%D9%84%D8%A7%D8%AD-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%85%D8%AF%D8%B1%D8%B9%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D8%AF%D8%A8%D8%A7%D8%A8%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D9%88%D8%B9%D8%B1%D8%A8%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D8%AA%D8%B7%D9%88%D8%B1%D8%AA-%D8%B9%D8%A8%D8%B1>
In
the Israeli army, this division has participated in all Israeli wars
against Palestinians and Arabs.
- 91st Division (Galilee): Responsible for the entire Lebanese front
from Ras Naqoura in the west to the occupied Shebaa Farms
<https://www.aljazeera.net/encyclopedia/2015/3/8/%D9%85%D8%B2%D8%A7%D8%B1%D8%B9-%D8%B4%D8%A8%D8%B9%D8%A7>
in
the east.
- Division 146 (Cosmic Explosion): A reserve division affiliated with
the Northern Command of the Israeli army. It was the first reserve division
to join Operation “Northern Arrows” and participated in both the First and
Second Lebanon Wars.
- 98th Division (Fire League)*: An infantry division* consisting of
paratroopers and commando brigades, specialized in encirclement via
parachute drops, assault landings using attack helicopters and transport
aircraft, and fighting deep into its opponent's territory.
- 99th Infantry Division (Al-Wameed): Trained to move on foot and not in
armored personnel carriers and tasked to operate drones
<https://www.aljazeera.net/encyclopedia/2019/7/27/%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B7%D8%A7%D8%A6%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%85%D8%B3%D9%8A%D8%B1%D8%A9-%D8%B7%D8%A7%D8%A6%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D8%A8%D8%AF%D9%88%D9%86-%D8%B7%D9%8A%D8%A7%D8%B1>
on
the battlefield, these troops deal with electronic and cyber attacks - via
air and land.
- Division 210 (Bashan): Established in the midst of the October 1973
War, this division was assigned the task of attacking Syria
<https://www.aljazeera.net/encyclopedia/2014/11/3/%D8%B3%D9%88%D8%B1%D9%8A%D8%A7>
via Lebanon
<https://www.aljazeera.net/encyclopedia/2014/10/30/%D9%84%D8%A8%D9%86%D8%A7%D9%86>
through a strategic encirclement operation aimed at weakening the Syrian
Arab Army
<https://www.aljazeera.net/encyclopedia/2014/11/9/%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AC%D9%8A%D8%B4-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B3%D9%88%D8%B1%D9%8A>
(SAA).
Despite this buildup, Israeli forces are still operating in the border
strip, which has been subjected to thousands of raids and shells since
October 8, 2023, that is, for more than a year. For example, the border
village of Yaroun encountered 650 raids in a year, and 200 raids just last
week.
The Israeli army adopts the method of rapid close-in raids with infantry,
supported by heavy artillery and air cover, so that its forces infiltrate -
about 700 meters at the maximum depth - and then return. These raids are
mostly conducted for propaganda reasons, to secure footage of reassuring
ground scenes to convince displaced Israeli settlers that there are
military achievements that can establish safety for their return to
settlements. For example, the Israeli army published a video that it claims
depicts the storming of the Lebanese village of Kafr Kila. It later
transpired that the footage dates back to 2006
<https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZFiFtuuBa-w>.
*Has Israel advanced in the south?*
Some of the front-line villages in southern Lebanon on the border with
Israel are considered “militarily defeated,” largely because their
geographical features do not allow for defending forces to repel the enemy.
Yaron, one of these villages, has been destroyed and abandoned for months
<https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=1228379831538655>. It is relatively low
in elevation (780 meters above sea level), and represents a kind of
protrusion inside occupied Israeli territories.
Yaroun is therefore not considered a defensive base, but is more suitable
for offensive operations as a starting base. The Israeli army entered it
after its complete destruction to take photos* and to destroy a **mosque *
<https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=1417070926347636>*150 meters from the
border*.
The same applies to Lebanon's Maroun al-Ras area, where occupation troops
published pictures of raising an Israeli flag in a garden of the destroyed
village months ago. This area is one of the first points to be bombed after
8 October, faces the Palestinian border, and is an advanced point from
Lebanese territory.
Last week, t occupation army took advantage of the presence of a UN
peacekeeping troop (UNIFIL) position at the foot of the park’s hill to
advance to it and take propaganda photos, then quickly withdrew for fear of
being targeted.
Israeli forces were also able to advance toward the two Lebanese Christian
villages of Rmeish and Ain Ebel. Hezbollah's operations room took the
decision to avoid targeting these villages since their residents were still
within, and to preserve their lives and national cohesion, which Israel
exploited to position itself in the vicinity of the two villages.
*Hezbollah waits...and takes the initiative*
The geography of the south plays an important role in aiding defending
forces to take cover and conceal themselves from the enemy, as well as to
set up ambushes. The Israeli army knows this well, and is forever reminded
of how its tanks fell into a bold resistance trap in what was known in the
2006 war as the “tank massacre.”
Today, Tel Aviv is limiting its objectives to control a group of sensitive
border areas. It believes this approach will help it secure its border
settlements, on the one hand, and facilitate its future operations deep
into Lebanese territory - such as the Balat area, Jabal al-Bat, Al-Awaidah,
Tal Al-Nahhas, and others - on the other.
Hezbollah has already shown Tel Aviv what it could be up against. In the
Al-Bat area, the resistance struck a tank that was on its way uphill -
terrain that requires bulldozers, tanks, and great engineering efforts to
climb these heights, which are preferred targets for anti-armor weapons to
hit Israeli military vehicles accurately. Importantly, these strikes can be
conducted effectively from remote and relatively safe places.
But Hezbollah isn't waiting for Israeli forces to advance. Rather, it
takes the initiative to bomb the attacking enemy concentrations at border
sites without interruption, to create a kind of confusion and disarray that
prevents occupation forces from organizing or forming, forcing them into
“busying” diversions like taking cover and transporting their wounded to
deplete their morale.
These are what are called “spoilage attacks” because they spoil the enemy’s
intentions. What recently took place in Ras al-Naqoura offers a clear
example of the quality of the resistance measures that struck enemy forces,
and vehicles gathered at the site and hit them before they moved. Hezbollah
offered a sample to the Israelis: “Here's what will happen when you
position your armor in an elevated position.”
Given the strikes it expected to receive, causing deaths and injuries among
its ranks, the Israeli army has employed its elite Unit 669 for air medical
evacuation, at the border only. This begs the question of what occupation
forces plan to do if their troops manage to penetrate a little deeper into
Lebanese territory. Will there be stretcher drones for their casualties, as
Tel Aviv may not want to deliberately bring helicopters deeper into the
south for fear of being shot down? Israeli medevac operations will become
more difficult and dangerous both to the lives of injured troops and those
working to evacuate them.
*Military zones increase displacement … of Israelis too*
While the occupation army seeks to exert pressure on Hezbollah by
displacing its constituents and supporters from their homes in the south,
the Bekaa, and the southern suburbs of Beirut - and even displacement areas
such as Byblos, the north, and Beirut - in order to return its northern
settlers to their settlements, Tel Aviv took a counterproductive step when
it announced more closed military zones on the border, which practically
amounts to expulsion for Israeli residents remaining in other,
as-yet-undisturbed northern settlements.
On 6 October, the Israeli army announced
<https://www.aa.com.tr/ar/%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AF%D9%88%D9%84-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B9%D8%B1%D8%A8%D9%8A%D8%A9/%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AC%D9%8A%D8%B4-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A5%D8%B3%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%A6%D9%8A%D9%84%D9%8A-%D9%8A%D8%B9%D9%84%D9%86-%D8%B9%D9%86-3-%D9%85%D9%86%D8%A7%D8%B7%D9%82-%D8%B9%D8%B3%D9%83%D8%B1%D9%8A%D8%A9-%D9%85%D8%BA%D9%84%D9%82%D8%A9-%D8%A8%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B4%D9%85%D8%A7%D9%84-/3353472>
that it was establishing a closed military zone, including the areas of
Manara, Yiftah, and Al-Malikiyah.
*Has Hezbollah lost command and control?*
There is no doubt that the blow Hezbollah suffered from the assassination
of Nasrallah and most of its top military commanders was painful,
confusing, and had a “strategic” dimension. The late secretary-general was
not just a political leader and symbol for the millions who support the
resistance, but was essentially also the executive director of West Asia's
Axis of Resistance, led by Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
Nasrallah enjoyed wide influence in the region and strong relations with
all the Axis powers. His assassination shook not only Hezbollah, but the
entire Axis. In his eulogy for Nasrallah, Khamenei revealed the importance
of his role and the impact of this loss by describing the late Hezbollah
leaders as “the apple of my eye.”
The assassinations were not limited to Nasrallah, but included key military
commanders such as Fuad Shukr, Ibrahim Aqil, and Ahmad Wehbi. These arrived
amidst Israel's “pager and radio massacre” that shook Hezbollah's community
and filled hospitals with party members who suffered severe injuries to
their eyes and hands. These rapid, successive strikes were enough to divide
the Lebanese resistance, destroy it morally, and cut off communication
between its leaders.
In the subsequent few weeks, however, there are several field indicators
that the movement is recovering rapidly and regaining its ability to
control the battlefield, its units, and forces.
These indicators can be summarized in the following points:
- Consistency in the daily number of missiles, up to* 200 **projectiles*,
indicates discipline among the missile crews, taking into account the needs
of the battle and the expected time periods in order to maintain continuity
and momentum and keep the Israel front under constant pressure.
- Consistency in the objectives, their nature and quality, as several
types of objectives are adopted (concentrations in border sites and
settlements, the main population centers in the north, Safad, Tiberias,
Karmiel, the Krayot, Haifa, and as of recently, Tel Aviv).
- The distribution of firepower - in proportion to the availability of
targets - indicates that Hezbollah's intelligence capabilities remain
intact, as they are producing, discovering, and delivering daily targets
through a functioning command and control system to the firing forces in
real-time - such as targeting the house in which the EGOZ was stationed in
Al-Adaysah.
- Planting explosives and deploying innovative ambushes on the front
lines and routes adopted by Israeli forces is an indication of the presence
of a field command capable of making sound assessments, anticipating the
enemy’s movements, and issuing orders to take proportionate and effective
measures.
- Directing a large and unprecedented missile strike on the Krayot (a
cluster of cities and neighborhoods in Haifa), in conjunction with
Hezbollah Deputy Secretary-General Naim Qassem’s televised speech, is an
indication that there are those who planned, decided, implemented, and
controlled, and this cannot be implemented without an effective command and
control system.
- Directing a missile strike against Tel Aviv on 7 October specifically
indicates the existence of a decision and intention to strike this city on
this specific date.
- The way Hezbollah dealt with Israeli troops was by taking UNIFIL
soldiers as human shields (positioning themselves behind them) at a
critical moment. The resistance gave orders not to engage with enemy forces
in order to protect the lives of UNIFIL personnel, which confirms the
existence of a high level of control.
Throughout its history, Hezbollah has been able to overcome many
existential tribulations, some we have seen already in this war, but
evidence and field data in the south indicate that the resistance is
capable of overcoming the blow, restructuring its leadership, and adjusting
its ground forces to adapt to the needs of the battle.
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