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<div class="gmail-inner-article-top"><h1 class="gmail-">The War Front: Week of 7 October, 2024</h1><p class="gmail-">In
the past week, signs have emerged that Hezbollah has revived from
Israel's relentless blows to its leadership and ranks, and that the
resistance maintains command and control over the battle. This is the
first in The Cradle's series of war updates for the duration of the
Israel-Axis battle.</p><div class="gmail-another-name"><p><a href="https://thecradle.co/authors/the-cradles-military-correspondent" style="color:rgb(164,4,4)">The Cradle's Military Correspondent</a></p></div><div class="gmail-another-name" style="margin-top:16px"><p><span>OCT 12, 2024 -<font size="1"> </font></span><font size="1"><a href="https://thecradle.co/articles/the-war-front-week-of-7-october-2024">https://thecradle.co/articles/the-war-front-week-of-7-october-2024</a></font></p></div></div><div class="gmail-inner-article-img"><img src="http://thecradle-main.oss-eu-central-1.aliyuncs.com/public/articles/325f1898-88b2-11ef-9363-00163e02c055.webp" alt="" width="491" height="276" style="margin-right: 0px;"><span>Photo Credit: The Cradle</span></div><div class="gmail-inner-article-content"><div class="gmail-row"><div class="gmail-col-md-8 gmail-col-sm-7"><div class="gmail-article-content"><span><p><span lang="EN" dir="ltr">The
scene in southern Lebanon has recurred daily for about ten days.
Israeli bombs target Lebanese villages, kill civilians, and enemy land
forces fail to penetrate territory. Hezbollah fighters remain vigilant
to prevent any invasion of the border areas, galvanized by both grief
and anger over the Israeli assassinations of their late
Secretary-General Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah and other top military and
political leaders.</span></p><p><span lang="EN" dir="ltr">Since the
announcement of the ground operation, dubbed “Arrows of the North” and
described as “limited” in scope by Tel Aviv in an attempt to downplay
its objectives, Israel's stated goals are to “strike the military
infrastructure” of Hezbollah - a task it found difficult during similar
battles in southern Lebanon during the July 2006 war. </span></p><p><span lang="EN" dir="ltr">This time around, on just the second day of the Israeli operation, the occupation army </span><a href="https://www.alhurra.com/lebanon/2024/10/02/%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AC%D9%8A%D8%B4-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A5%D8%B3%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%A6%D9%8A%D9%84%D9%8A-%D9%8A%D8%B9%D9%84%D9%86-%D9%85%D9%82%D8%AA%D9%84-8-%D8%AC%D9%86%D9%88%D8%AF-%D8%A8%D8%A7%D8%B4%D8%AA%D8%A8%D8%A7%D9%83%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D9%81%D9%8A-%D9%84%D8%A8%D9%86%D8%A7%D9%86"><span lang="EN" dir="ltr">announced the killing of 8 officers and soldiers</span></a><span lang="EN" dir="ltr"> from its "Egoz" commando unit during a clash with resistance fighters.</span></p><p><span lang="EN" dir="ltr">Israel's
concern about the ground battle becomes clear when examining the number
of divisions it flung into the battle and the quality of their
training. Each of these divisions has been tasked with a battalion area
of responsibility in terms of tactical penetration of Lebanese
territory.</span></p><p><span lang="EN" dir="ltr"><strong>What teams does Israel rely on?</strong></span></p><ul><li><span lang="EN" dir="ltr">36th Division (Al-Barkan): The largest armored division in regular service in the </span><a href="https://www.aljazeera.net/encyclopedia/2023/11/4/%D8%B3%D9%84%D8%A7%D8%AD-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%85%D8%AF%D8%B1%D8%B9%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D8%AF%D8%A8%D8%A7%D8%A8%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D9%88%D8%B9%D8%B1%D8%A8%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D8%AA%D8%B7%D9%88%D8%B1%D8%AA-%D8%B9%D8%A8%D8%B1"><span lang="EN" dir="ltr">Armored Corps</span></a><span lang="EN" dir="ltr"> In the Israeli army, this division has participated in all Israeli wars against Palestinians and Arabs.</span></li><li><span lang="EN" dir="ltr">91st Division (Galilee): Responsible for the entire Lebanese front from Ras Naqoura in the west to the occupied </span><a href="https://www.aljazeera.net/encyclopedia/2015/3/8/%D9%85%D8%B2%D8%A7%D8%B1%D8%B9-%D8%B4%D8%A8%D8%B9%D8%A7"><span lang="EN" dir="ltr">Shebaa Farms</span></a><span lang="EN" dir="ltr"> in the east.</span></li><li><span lang="EN" dir="ltr">Division
146 (Cosmic Explosion): A reserve division affiliated with the Northern
Command of the Israeli army. It was the first reserve division to join
Operation “Northern Arrows” and participated in both the First and
Second Lebanon Wars.</span></li><li><span lang="EN" dir="ltr">98th Division (Fire League)<strong>: An infantry division</strong>
consisting of paratroopers and commando brigades, specialized in
encirclement via parachute drops, assault landings using attack
helicopters and transport aircraft, and fighting deep into its
opponent's territory.</span></li><li>99th Infantry Division (Al-Wameed): Trained to move on foot and not in armored personnel carriers and tasked to operate <a href="https://www.aljazeera.net/encyclopedia/2019/7/27/%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B7%D8%A7%D8%A6%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%85%D8%B3%D9%8A%D8%B1%D8%A9-%D8%B7%D8%A7%D8%A6%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D8%A8%D8%AF%D9%88%D9%86-%D8%B7%D9%8A%D8%A7%D8%B1">drones</a> on the battlefield, these troops deal with electronic and cyber attacks - via air and land.</li><li><span lang="EN" dir="ltr">Division 210 (Bashan): Established in the midst of the October 1973 War, this division was assigned the task of attacking </span><a href="https://www.aljazeera.net/encyclopedia/2014/11/3/%D8%B3%D9%88%D8%B1%D9%8A%D8%A7"><span lang="EN" dir="ltr">Syria</span></a><span lang="EN" dir="ltr"> via </span><a href="https://www.aljazeera.net/encyclopedia/2014/10/30/%D9%84%D8%A8%D9%86%D8%A7%D9%86"><span lang="EN" dir="ltr">Lebanon</span></a><span lang="EN" dir="ltr"> through a strategic encirclement operation aimed at weakening the </span><a href="https://www.aljazeera.net/encyclopedia/2014/11/9/%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AC%D9%8A%D8%B4-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B3%D9%88%D8%B1%D9%8A"><span lang="EN" dir="ltr">Syrian Arab Army</span></a><span lang="EN" dir="ltr"> (SAA).</span></li></ul><p><span lang="EN" dir="ltr">Despite
this buildup, Israeli forces are still operating in the border strip,
which has been subjected to thousands of raids and shells since October
8, 2023, that is, for more than a year. For example, the border village
of Yaroun encountered 650 raids in a year, and 200 raids just last week.</span></p><p><span lang="EN" dir="ltr">The
Israeli army adopts the method of rapid close-in raids with infantry,
supported by heavy artillery and air cover, so that its forces
infiltrate - about 700 meters at the maximum depth - and then return.
These raids are mostly conducted for propaganda reasons, to secure
footage of reassuring ground scenes to convince displaced Israeli
settlers that there are military achievements that can establish safety
for their return to settlements. For example, the Israeli army published
a video that it claims depicts the storming of the Lebanese village of
Kafr Kila. It later transpired that the footage </span><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZFiFtuuBa-w"><span lang="EN" dir="ltr">dates back to 2006</span></a><span lang="EN" dir="ltr">.</span></p><p><span lang="EN" dir="ltr"><strong>Has Israel advanced in the south?</strong></span></p><p><span lang="EN" dir="ltr">Some
of the front-line villages in southern Lebanon on the border with
Israel are considered “militarily defeated,” largely because their
geographical features do not allow for defending forces to repel the
enemy.</span></p><p><span lang="EN" dir="ltr">Yaron, one of these villages, has been </span><a href="https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=1228379831538655"><span lang="EN" dir="ltr">destroyed and abandoned for months</span></a><span lang="EN" dir="ltr">.
It is relatively low in elevation (780 meters above sea level), and
represents a kind of protrusion inside occupied Israeli territories.</span></p><p><span lang="EN" dir="ltr">Yaroun
is therefore not considered a defensive base, but is more suitable for
offensive operations as a starting base. The Israeli army entered it
after its complete destruction to take photos<strong> and to destroy a </strong></span><a href="https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=1417070926347636"><span lang="EN" dir="ltr"><strong>mosque </strong></span></a><span lang="EN" dir="ltr"><strong>150 meters from the border</strong>.</span></p><p><span lang="EN" dir="ltr">The
same applies to Lebanon's Maroun al-Ras area, where occupation troops
published pictures of raising an Israeli flag in a garden of the
destroyed village months ago. This area is one of the first points to be
bombed after 8 October, faces the Palestinian border, and is an
advanced point from Lebanese territory.</span></p><p><span lang="EN" dir="ltr">Last
week, t occupation army took advantage of the presence of a UN
peacekeeping troop (UNIFIL) position at the foot of the park’s hill to
advance to it and take propaganda photos, then quickly withdrew for fear
of being targeted.</span></p><p><span lang="EN" dir="ltr">Israeli
forces were also able to advance toward the two Lebanese Christian
villages of Rmeish and Ain Ebel. Hezbollah's operations room took the
decision to avoid targeting these villages since their residents were
still within, and to preserve their lives and national cohesion, which
Israel exploited to position itself in the vicinity of the two villages.</span></p><p><span lang="EN" dir="ltr"><strong>Hezbollah waits...and takes the initiative</strong></span></p><p><span lang="EN" dir="ltr">The
geography of the south plays an important role in aiding defending
forces to take cover and conceal themselves from the enemy, as well as
to set up ambushes. The Israeli army knows this well, and is forever
reminded of how its tanks fell into a bold resistance trap in what was
known in the 2006 war as the “tank massacre.”</span></p><p><span lang="EN" dir="ltr">Today,
Tel Aviv is limiting its objectives to control a group of sensitive
border areas. It believes this approach will help it secure its border
settlements, on the one hand, and facilitate its future operations deep
into Lebanese territory - such as the Balat area, Jabal al-Bat,
Al-Awaidah, Tal Al-Nahhas, and others - on the other.</span></p><p><span lang="EN" dir="ltr">Hezbollah
has already shown Tel Aviv what it could be up against. In the Al-Bat
area, the resistance struck a tank that was on its way uphill - terrain
that requires bulldozers, tanks, and great engineering efforts to climb
these heights, which are preferred targets for anti-armor weapons to hit
Israeli military vehicles accurately. Importantly, these strikes can be
conducted effectively from remote and relatively safe places.</span></p><p><span lang="EN" dir="ltr">But
Hezbollah isn't waiting for Israeli forces to advance. Rather, it
takes the initiative to bomb the attacking enemy concentrations at
border sites without interruption, to create a kind of confusion and
disarray that prevents occupation forces from organizing or forming,
forcing them into “busying” diversions like taking cover and
transporting their wounded to deplete their morale. </span></p><p><span lang="EN" dir="ltr">These
are what are called “spoilage attacks” because they spoil the enemy’s
intentions. What recently took place in Ras al-Naqoura offers a clear
example of the quality of the resistance measures that struck enemy
forces, and vehicles gathered at the site and hit them before they
moved. Hezbollah offered a sample to the Israelis: “Here's what will
happen when you position your armor in an elevated position.” </span></p><p><span lang="EN" dir="ltr">Given
the strikes it expected to receive, causing deaths and injuries among
its ranks, the Israeli army has employed its elite Unit 669 for air
medical evacuation, at the border only. This begs the question of what
occupation forces plan to do if their troops manage to penetrate a
little deeper into Lebanese territory. Will there be stretcher drones
for their casualties, as Tel Aviv may not want to deliberately bring
helicopters deeper into the south for fear of being shot down? Israeli
medevac operations will become more difficult and dangerous both to the
lives of injured troops and those working to evacuate them.</span></p><p><span lang="EN" dir="ltr"><strong>Military zones increase displacement … of Israelis too</strong></span></p><p><span lang="EN" dir="ltr">While
the occupation army seeks to exert pressure on Hezbollah by displacing
its constituents and supporters from their homes in the south, the
Bekaa, and the southern suburbs of Beirut - and even displacement areas
such as Byblos, the north, and Beirut - in order to return its northern
settlers to their settlements, Tel Aviv took a counterproductive step
when it announced more closed military zones on the border, which
practically amounts to expulsion for Israeli residents remaining in
other, as-yet-undisturbed northern settlements.</span></p><p><span lang="EN" dir="ltr">On 6 October, </span><a href="https://www.aa.com.tr/ar/%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AF%D9%88%D9%84-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B9%D8%B1%D8%A8%D9%8A%D8%A9/%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AC%D9%8A%D8%B4-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A5%D8%B3%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%A6%D9%8A%D9%84%D9%8A-%D9%8A%D8%B9%D9%84%D9%86-%D8%B9%D9%86-3-%D9%85%D9%86%D8%A7%D8%B7%D9%82-%D8%B9%D8%B3%D9%83%D8%B1%D9%8A%D8%A9-%D9%85%D8%BA%D9%84%D9%82%D8%A9-%D8%A8%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B4%D9%85%D8%A7%D9%84-/3353472"><span lang="EN" dir="ltr">the Israeli army announced</span></a><span lang="EN" dir="ltr"> that it was establishing a closed military zone, including the areas of Manara, Yiftah, and Al-Malikiyah.</span></p><p><span lang="EN" dir="ltr"><strong>Has Hezbollah lost command and control?</strong></span></p><p><span lang="EN" dir="ltr">There
is no doubt that the blow Hezbollah suffered from the assassination of
Nasrallah and most of its top military commanders was painful,
confusing, and had a “strategic” dimension. The late secretary-general
was not just a political leader and symbol for the millions who support
the resistance, but was essentially also the executive director of West
Asia's Axis of Resistance, led by Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. </span></p><p><span lang="EN" dir="ltr">Nasrallah
enjoyed wide influence in the region and strong relations with all the
Axis powers. His assassination shook not only Hezbollah, but the entire
Axis. In his eulogy for Nasrallah, Khamenei revealed the importance of
his role and the impact of this loss by describing the late Hezbollah
leaders as “the apple of my eye.”</span></p><p><span lang="EN" dir="ltr">The
assassinations were not limited to Nasrallah, but included key military
commanders such as Fuad Shukr, Ibrahim Aqil, and Ahmad Wehbi. These
arrived amidst Israel's “pager and radio massacre” that shook
Hezbollah's community and filled hospitals with party members who
suffered severe injuries to their eyes and hands. These rapid,
successive strikes were enough to divide the Lebanese resistance,
destroy it morally, and cut off communication between its leaders.</span></p><p><span lang="EN" dir="ltr">In
the subsequent few weeks, however, there are several field indicators
that the movement is recovering rapidly and regaining its ability to
control the battlefield, its units, and forces. </span></p><p><span lang="EN" dir="ltr">These indicators can be summarized in the following points:</span></p><ul><li><span lang="EN" dir="ltr">Consistency in the daily number of missiles, up to<strong> 200 </strong></span><span lang="en" dir="ltr"><strong>projectiles</strong></span><span lang="EN" dir="ltr">,
indicates discipline among the missile crews, taking into account the
needs of the battle and the expected time periods in order to maintain
continuity and momentum and keep the Israel front under constant
pressure.</span></li><li><span lang="EN" dir="ltr">Consistency in the
objectives, their nature and quality, as several types of objectives are
adopted (concentrations in border sites and settlements, the main
population centers in the north, Safad, Tiberias, Karmiel, the Krayot,
Haifa, and as of recently, Tel Aviv).</span></li><li><span lang="EN" dir="ltr">The
distribution of firepower - in proportion to the availability of
targets - indicates that Hezbollah's intelligence capabilities remain
intact, as they are producing, discovering, and delivering daily targets
through a functioning command and control system to the firing forces
in real-time - such as targeting the house in which the EGOZ was
stationed in Al-Adaysah.</span></li><li><span lang="EN" dir="ltr">Planting
explosives and deploying innovative ambushes on the front lines and
routes adopted by Israeli forces is an indication of the presence of a
field command capable of making sound assessments, anticipating the
enemy’s movements, and issuing orders to take proportionate and
effective measures.</span></li><li><span lang="EN" dir="ltr">Directing a
large and unprecedented missile strike on the Krayot (a cluster of
cities and neighborhoods in Haifa), in conjunction with Hezbollah Deputy
Secretary-General Naim Qassem’s televised speech, is an indication that
there are those who planned, decided, implemented, and controlled, and
this cannot be implemented without an effective command and control
system.</span></li><li><span lang="EN" dir="ltr">Directing a missile
strike against Tel Aviv on 7 October specifically indicates the
existence of a decision and intention to strike this city on this
specific date.</span></li><li><span lang="EN" dir="ltr">The way
Hezbollah dealt with Israeli troops was by taking UNIFIL soldiers as
human shields (positioning themselves behind them) at a critical moment.
The resistance gave orders not to engage with enemy forces in order to
protect the lives of UNIFIL personnel, which confirms the existence of a
high level of control.</span></li></ul><p><span lang="EN" dir="ltr">Throughout
its history, Hezbollah has been able to overcome many existential
tribulations, some we have seen already in this war, but evidence and
field data in the south indicate that the resistance is capable of
overcoming the blow, restructuring its leadership, and adjusting its
ground forces to adapt to the needs of the battle.</span></p></span></div></div></div></div>
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