[News] Israel Would Not Win War with Hezbollah - US Intelligence

[Anti-Imperialist News]

palestinechronicle.com
<https://www.palestinechronicle.com/israel-would-not-win-war-with-hezbollah-us-intelligence/>
Israel Would Not Win War with Hezbollah - US IntelligenceJanuary 8, 2024
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Hezbollah fighters during a military drill at the border with Israel.
(Photo: Supplied)

*By Palestine Chronicle Staff
<https://www.palestinechronicle.com/writers/palestine-chronicle-staff>*

According to the Washington Post, US officials have privately warned
Netanyahu against opening a second front in Lebanon.

A secret assessment from the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) in
Washington has found that Israeli forces would find it “difficult to
succeed” in a two-front war against Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon,
the Washington Post reported
<https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2024/01/07/israel-hezbollah-lebanon-blinken/>
on Sunday.

Since the start of the Israeli war on Gaza, on October 7, the Lebanese
Resistance movement Hezbollah has engaged directly, but relatively in a
limited way in the war against the Israeli occupation.

However, following the assassination of the deputy head of the political
bureau of the Islamic Resistance Movement Hamas, Saleh al-Arouri, in
Beirut, Hezbollah leader, Hassan Nasrallah, said that “a response is
inevitable”.

Nasrallah said in a televised speech on Friday, for the second time in
days, that Hezbollah cannot remain silent about a breach of this level,
stressing that the lack of response makes all of Lebanon exposed.

He pointed out that Hezbollah fighters have carried out about 670 military
operations on the Lebanese border with Israel since October 8, one day
after the Al-Aqsa Flood operation.

For his part, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has promised to
make a “fundamental change” to the security situation along the
Lebanese-Israeli border.

According to the Washington Post, however, US officials have privately
warned Netanyahu against opening a second front.

“If it were to do so, a new secret assessment from the Defense Intelligence
Agency (DIA) found that it will be difficult for Israel Defense Forces
(IDF) to succeed because its military assets and resources would be spread
too thin given the conflict in Gaza,” citing two anonymous officials and a
classified report by the DIA.

“Officials fear that a full-scale conflict between Israel and Lebanon would
surpass the bloodshed of the 2006 Israel-Lebanon war on account of
Hezbollah’s substantially larger arsenal of long-range and precision
weaponry,” the paper stated, citing officials who also warned that the
group could target “sensitive targets like petrochemical plants and nuclear
reactors”.

Additionally, the US is concerned that a further escalation could draw
“Iran (…) and other proxy forces into the conflict – an eventuality that
could compel the United States to respond militarily on Israel’s behalf.”

“Within the (US) administration, there are differing perceptions about
Netanyahu’s interest in a negotiated resolution to the Hezbollah conflict,”
the Washington Post reported, adding that some US officials think that “if
the Gaza war ends tomorrow, Netanyahu’s political career will end with it,
incentivizing him to broaden the conflict.”

The Israeli leader faced widespread protests before the start of the war,
and recent polls show that his popularity has dropped.

Washington also fears that such a conflict could draw in Iran – Hezbollah’s
principal backer – and eventually the US, the paper’s sources said.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken arrived in Jordan on Sunday, ahead of
visits to Israel, the West Bank, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi
Arabia and Egypt.

“We have an intense focus on preventing this conflict from spreading,” he
reportedly said, before meeting Jordanian King Abdullah II and Foreign
Minister Ayman Safadi.

*(PC, RT)*
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