[News] Former NATO Military Analyst Blows the Whistle on West’s Ukraine Invasion Narrative

[Anti-Imperialist News]

*Of interest given the paucity of military insight in the corporate media -
not to be read as an endorsement of war*

scheerpost.com
<https://scheerpost.com/2022/04/09/former-nato-military-analyst-blows-the-whistle-on-wests-ukraine-invasion-narrative/>
Former NATO Military Analyst Blows the Whistle on West’s Ukraine Invasion
Narrative
Jacques Baud - April 9, 2022
------------------------------
Jacques Baud, intelligence and security consultant and former NATO military
analyst

*By Jacques Baud / French Intelligence Research Center
<https://cf2r.org/documentation/la-situation-militaire-en-ukraine/>*
*PART ONE: ON THE ROAD TO WAR*

For years, from Mali to Afghanistan, I worked for peace and risked my life
for it. It is therefore not a question of justifying the war, but of
understanding what led us to it. I note that the “experts” who take turns
on the television sets analyze the situation based on dubious information,
most often hypotheses turned into facts, and therefore we no longer manage
to understand what is happening. That’s how you create panic.

The problem is not so much who is right in this conflict, but how our
leaders make their decisions.

Let’s try to examine the roots of the conflict. It starts with those
<https://www.rts.ch/info/monde/6772950-les-separatistes-auraient-renforce-leurs-capacites-dattaque-en-ukraine.html>
who
for the past eight years have been talking to us about “separatists” or
“independence” from the Donbass. It’s wrong. The referendums conducted by
the two self-proclaimed republics of Donetsk and Luhansk in May 2014 were
not ”  *independence ” (независимость) *referendums , as some
<https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4d/Decree_on_holding_the_Donetsk_status_referendum.png>unscrupulous
journalists
<https://www.rts.ch/info/monde/5839879-pres-de-90-de-oui-a-lindependance-a-donetsk-selon-les-prorusses.html>
 claimed ,
but ”  *self-determination*  ” or ”  *autonomy*
<https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4d/Decree_on_holding_the_Donetsk_status_referendum.png>
(самостоятельность). The
term “pro-Russian” suggests that Russia was a party to the conflict, which
was not the case, and the term “Russian speakers” would have been more
honest. Moreover, these referendums were conducted against the advice of
Vladimir Putin.

In fact, these republics did not seek to separate from Ukraine, but to have
a statute of autonomy guaranteeing them the use of the Russian language as
an official language. Because the first legislative act of the new
government resulting from the overthrow of President Yanukovych, was the
abolition, on February 23, 2014, of the Kivalov-Kolesnichenko law of 2012
which made Russian an official language. A bit as if putschists decided
that French and Italian would no longer be official languages in
Switzerland.

This decision causes a storm in the Russian-speaking population. This
resulted in fierce repression against the Russian-speaking regions (Odessa,
Dnepropetrovsk, Kharkov, Lugansk and Donetsk) which began in February 2014
and led to a militarization of the situation and a few massacres (in Odessa
and Mariupol, for the most important). At the end of summer 2014, only the
self-proclaimed republics of Donetsk and Lugansk remained.

At this stage, too rigid and stuck in a doctrinaire approach to the
operational art, the Ukrainian staffs suffered the enemy without succeeding
in imposing themselves. Examination of the course of the fighting in
2014-2016 in the Donbass shows that the Ukrainian general staff
systematically and mechanically applied the same operational
plans. However, the war waged by the autonomists was then very close to
what we observed in the Sahel: very mobile operations carried out with
light means. With a more flexible and less doctrinaire approach, the rebels
were able to exploit the inertia of the Ukrainian forces to “trap” them
repeatedly.

In 2014, I am at NATO, responsible for the fight against the proliferation
of small arms, and we are trying to detect Russian arms deliveries to the
rebels in order to see if Moscow is involved. The information that we
receive then comes practically all from the Polish intelligence services
and does not “match” with the information from the OSCE: in spite of rather
crude allegations, we do not observe any delivery of arms and materials
Russian military.

The rebels are armed thanks to the defections of Russian-speaking Ukrainian
units which cross over to the rebel side. As the Ukrainian failures
progressed, the entire tank, artillery or anti-aircraft battalions swelled
the ranks of the autonomists. This is what drives the Ukrainians to commit
to the Minsk Accords.

But, just after signing the Minsk 1 Accords, Ukrainian President Petro
Poroshenko launched a vast anti-terrorist operation (ATO/Антитерористична
операція) against Donbass. *Bis repetita placent*  : poorly advised by NATO
officers, the Ukrainians suffered a crushing defeat at Debaltsevo which
forced them to commit to the Minsk 2 Agreements…

It is essential to recall here that the Minsk 1 (September 2014) and Minsk
2 (February 2015) Agreements provided for neither the separation nor the
independence of the Republics, but their autonomy *within the framework* of
Ukraine. Those who have read the Accords
<https://www.securitycouncilreport.org/atf/cf/%7B65BFCF9B-6D27-4E9C-8CD3-CF6E4FF96FF9%7D/s_res_2202.pdf>
(they
are very, very, very few) will find that it is written in full that the
status of the republics was to be negotiated between Kiev and the
representatives of the republics, for an *internal solution* in Ukraine .

This is why since 2014, Russia has systematically demanded their
application while refusing to be a party to the negotiations, because it
was an internal matter for Ukraine. On the other side, the Westerners – led
by France – systematically tried to replace the Minsk Accords with the
“Normandy format”, which brought Russians and Ukrainians face to
face. However, let us remember, there were *never* any Russian troops in
the Donbass before February 23-24, 2022. Moreover, OSCE observers
<https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/10/25/counting-the-dead-in-europes-forgotten-war-ukraine-conflict-donbass-osce/>
have
never observed the slightest trace of Russian units operating in the
Donbass. Thus, the US intelligence map published by the Washington Post
<https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/russia-ukraine-invasion/2021/12/03/98a3760e-546b-11ec-8769-2f4ecdf7a2ad_story.html>
on
December 3, 2021 does not show Russian troops in Donbass.

In October 2015, Vasyl Hrytsak, director of the Ukrainian Security Service
<https://www.kyivpost.com/article/content/war-against-ukraine/sbu-registers-involvement-of-56-russian-in-military-actions-against-ukraine-since-military-conflict-in-eastern-ukraien-unfolded-399718.html>
(SBU),
confessed that only 56 Russian fighters had been observed in the
Donbass. It was an even comparable to that of the Swiss going to fight in
Bosnia during the weekends, in the 1990s, or the French who are going to
fight in Ukraine today.

The Ukrainian army was then in a deplorable state. In October 2018, after
four years of war, Ukraine’s chief military prosecutor Anatoly Matios
<https://vesti.ua/strana/309880-nazvany-neboevye-poteri-vsu-na-donbasse> said
that Ukraine had lost 2,700 men in the Donbass: 891 from disease, 318 from
traffic accidents, 177 from other accidents, 175 from poisoning (alcohol,
drugs), 172 from careless handling of weapons, 101 from breaches of safety
rules, 228 from murder and 615 from suicide.

In fact, the army is undermined by the corruption of its cadres and no
longer enjoys the support of the population. According to a UK Home Office
report <https://www.justice.gov/eoir/page/file/1008261/download> , when
reservists were called up in March-April 2014, 70% did *not* show up for
the first session, 80% for the second, 90% for the third and 95% for the
fourth. In October/November 2017, 70% of callers did not show up
<https://ipress.ua/ru/news/v_vsu_zayavyly_o_70_neyavky_vo_vremya_osennego_pryziva_237367.html>
during
the *“  **Autumn 2017 ** ” callback campaign. *This does not include
suicides <https://observer.com/2017/06/ukraine-war-soldiers-suicide/> and
desertions <https://www.refworld.org/docid/593a581b4.html>(often for the
benefit of the autonomists) which reach up to 30% of the workforce in the
ATO zone. Young Ukrainians refuse to go and fight in the Donbass and prefer
emigration, which also explains, at least partially, the country’s
demographic deficit.

The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense then turned to NATO to help it make its
armed forces more “attractive”. Having already worked on similar projects
within the framework of the United Nations, I was asked by NATO to
participate in a program intended to restore the image of the Ukrainian
armed forces. But it’s a long process and the Ukrainians want to go quickly.

Thus, to compensate for the lack of soldiers, the Ukrainian government
resorted to paramilitary militias. They are essentially made up of foreign
mercenaries, often far-right activists. As of 2020, they constitute around
40% of Ukraine’s forces and number around 102,000 men according to Reuters
<https://graphics.reuters.com/RUSSIA-UKRAINE/dwpkrkwkgvm/> . They are
armed, financed and trained by the United States, Great Britain, Canada and
France. There are more than 19 nationalities – including Swiss.

Western countries have therefore clearly created and supported Ukrainian
far-right militias
<https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2022/03/05/russia-invasion-ukraine-attention-extremist-regiment-nazi/9368016002/?gnt-cfr=1>
. In
October 2021, the Jerusalem Post
<https://www.jpost.com/diaspora/western-countries-training-far-right-extremists-in-ukraine-report-682411>
sounded
the alarm by denouncing the Centuria
<https://www.illiberalism.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/IERES-Papers-no-11-September-2021-FINAL.pdf>
project
. These militias have been operating in the Donbass since 2014, with
Western support. Even if we can discuss the term “Nazi”, the fact remains
that these militias are violent, convey a nauseating ideology and are
virulently anti-Semitic. Their anti-Semitism is more cultural than political
<https://www.jpost.com/diaspora/ukraine-progressively-restores-historical-memory-about-jews-652438>,
which is why the adjective “Nazi” is not really appropriate. Their hatred
of the Jew comes from the great famines of the years 1920-1930 in Ukraine,
resulting from the confiscation of crops by Stalin in order to finance the
modernization of the Red Army. However, this genocide – known in Ukraine
under the name of *Holodomor* – was perpetrated by the NKVD (ancestor of
the KGB) whose upper echelons of leadership were mainly composed of
Jews. That is why, today, Ukrainian extremists are asking Israel to apologize
for the crimes of communism
<https://www.jpost.com/diaspora/antisemitism/far-right-protesters-in-ukraine-demand-israel-apologize-for-communism-654711>
,
as the *Jerusalem Post* reports . We are therefore a long way from a “
 rewriting
of history
<https://www.rts.ch/info/monde/12928403-podcast-ukrainerussie-cest-quoi-cette-histoire-de-nazis.html>
”
by Vladimir Putin.

These militias, stemming from the far-right groups that led the Euromaidan
revolution in 2014, are made up of fanatical and brutal individuals. The
best known of these is the Azov regiment, whose emblem is reminiscent of
that of the 2nd SS Das *Reich* Panzer Division , which is the object of
real veneration in Ukraine, for having liberated Kharkov from the Soviets
in 1943, before to perpetrate the massacre of Oradour-sur-Glane in 1944, in
France.

Among the famous figures of the Azov regiment was the opponent Roman
Protassevich, arrested in 2021 by the Belarusian authorities following the
case of RyanAir flight FR4978. On May 23, 2021, there is talk of the deliberate
hijacking of an airliner
<https://www.rts.ch/info/monde/12220530-la-bielorussie-a-arrete-un-militant-apres-avoir-intercepte-son-avion.html>
by
a MiG-29 – with Putin’s agreement <https://youtu.be/-LfZt4ESJ44?t=148> , of
course – to arrest Protassevich, although the information then available
<https://www.belta.by/president/view/komandu-prinjat-v-minske-zaminirovannyj-samolet-ryanair-dal-lichno-lukashenko-442580-2021/)>
does
not confirm this scenario in any way.

But it must then be shown that President Lukashenko is a thug and
Protassevich a “journalist” in love with democracy. However, a rather
edifying investigation produced by an American NGO in 2020
<https://www.foiaresearch.net/person/roman-protasevich> , highlighted
Protassevich’s far-right militant activities. Western conspiracy then sets
in motion and unscrupulous media “groom” his biography
<https://www.rts.ch/audio-podcast/2021/audio/portrait-de-l-opposant-belarusse-roman-protassevitch-25201392.html>
. Finally,
in January 2022, the ICAO report
<https://www.politico.eu/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/19/ICAO-Fact-Finding-Investigation-Report_FR497849.pdf>
is
published and shows that despite some procedural errors, Belarus acted in
accordance with the rules in force and that the MiG-29 took off 15 minutes
after the RyanAir pilot decided to land in Minsk. So no Belarus plot and
even less with Putin. Ah!… One more detail: Protassevich,cruelly tortured
<https://ici.radio-canada.ca/nouvelle/1798764/opposant-belarus-entrevue-television-torture-interdiction-vols-ue>
by
Belarusian police, is now free. Those who would like to correspond with
him, can go to his Twitter <https://twitter.com/protas_by> account .

The labeling of “Nazi” or “neo-Nazi” given to Ukrainian paramilitaries is
considered Russian propaganda
<https://www.lemonde.fr/international/live/2021/05/28/avion-detourne-par-la-bielorussie-sanctions-de-l-union-europeenne-posez-vos-questions_6081892_3210.html>
. Perhaps
; but that is not the opinion of The Times of Israel
<https://www.timesofisrael.com/hundreds-march-in-ukraine-in-annual-tribute-to-nazi-collaborator/>
,
the Simon Wiesenthal Center
<https://www.thenation.com/article/politics/neo-nazis-far-right-ukraine/> or
the Counterterrorism Center
<https://ctc.usma.edu/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/CTC-SENTINEL-042020.pdf> at
West Point Academy. But this remains debatable, because, in 2014, Newsweek
magazine
<https://www.newsweek.com/evidence-war-crimes-committed-ukrainian-nationalist-volunteers-grows-269604>
seemed
to associate them with… the Islamic State. A choice !

So the West supports and continues to arm militias that have been guilty of
numerous crimes against civilian populations since 2014
<https://www.osce.org/files/f/documents/e/7/233896.pdf> : rape, torture and
massacres. But while the Swiss government has been very quick to impose
sanctions against Russia, it has not adopted any against Ukraine, which has
been slaughtering its own population since 2014. In fact, those who defend
the rights of the men in Ukraine
<https://www.osce.org/files/f/documents/6/0/394781.pdf> have long condemned
the actions of these groups, but have not been followed by our
governments. Because, in reality, we are not trying to help Ukraine, but to
fight Russia.

The integration of these paramilitary forces into the National Guard was
not at all accompanied by a “denazification”, as some claim
<https://www.rts.ch/info/monde/12928403-podcast-ukrainerussie-cest-quoi-cette-histoire-de-nazis.html>
. Among
the many examples, that of the insignia of the Azov Regiment is edifying:

In 2022, very schematically, the Ukrainian armed forces fighting the
Russian offensive are structured as:

– Army, subordinate to the Ministry of Defence: it is articulated in 3 army
corps and composed of maneuver formations (tanks, heavy artillery,
missiles, etc.).

– National Guard, which depends on the Ministry of the Interior and is
articulated in 5 territorial commands.

The National Guard is therefore a territorial defense force which is not
part of the Ukrainian army. It includes paramilitary militias, called
”  *volunteer
battalions”* (добровольчі батальйоні), also known by the evocative
name of *”  retaliatory
battalions  “,* composed of infantry. Mainly trained for urban combat, they
now ensure the defense of cities such as Kharkov, Mariupol, Odessa, kyiv,
etc.
*PART TWO: THE WAR*

Former head of the Warsaw Pact forces in the Swiss strategic intelligence
service, I observe with sadness – but not astonishment – that our services
are no longer in a position to understand the military situation in
Ukraine. The self-proclaimed “experts” who parade across our screens
tirelessly relay the same information modulated by the assertion that
Russia – and Vladimir Putin – is irrational. Let’s take a step back.
*THE OUTBREAK OF WAR*

Since November 2021, the Americans have constantly brandished the threat of
a Russian invasion against Ukraine. However, the Ukrainians do not seem to
agree. Why ?

We have to go back to March 24, 2021. On that day, Volodymyr Zelensky
issued a decree <https://www.president.gov.ua/documents/1172021-37533> for
the reconquest of Crimea
<https://www.president.gov.ua/news/prezident-zatverdiv-strategiyu-deokupaciyi-ta-reintegraciyi-67321>
and
began to deploy his forces towards the south of the
country. Simultaneously, several NATO exercises were conducted between the
Black Sea and the Baltic Sea, accompanied by a significant increase in
reconnaissance flights
<https://www.janes.com/defence-news/news-detail/us-uk-surge-surveillance-flights-over-ukraine-and-black-sea>
along
the Russian border. Russia then conducts a few exercises to test the
operational readiness of its troops and show that it is following the
evolution of the situation.

Things calm down until October-November with the end of the ZAPAD 21
exercises, whose troop movements are interpreted as a reinforcement for an
offensive against Ukraine. However, even the Ukrainian authorities refute
the idea of Russian preparations for a war and Oleksiy Reznikov, Ukrainian
Minister of Defense declares that there has been no change
<https://kyivindependent.com/hot-topic/defense-minister-downplays-russias-threat-says-its-similar-to-that-of-spring-2021/>
on
its border since the spring.

In violation of the Minsk Accords, Ukraine is conducting aerial operations
in Donbass using drones, including at least one strike against a fuel depot
in Donetsk in October 2021
<https://nationalinterest.org/feature/ukraine%E2%80%99s-recent-drone-strike-reignites-tensions-donbass-195709>
. The
American press points this out, but not the Europeans and no one condemns
these violations.

In February 2022, events rush. On February 7, during his visit to Moscow,
Emmanuel Macron reaffirms to Vladimir Putin his attachment to the Minsk
Accords <https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QHDAYz7g4u4> , a commitment he
will repeat after his interview with Volodymyr Zelensky
<https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=InrDN7jYVOs> the next day. But on February
11, in Berlin, after 9 hours of work, the meeting of the political advisers
of the leaders of the *”  **Normandy format ** “* ends, without concrete
result: the Ukrainians still and always refuse to apply the Accords
<https://www.aa.com.tr/en/europe/normandy-format-talks-in-berlin-end-without-tangible-results/2499568>of
Minsk, apparently under pressure from the United States. Vladimir Putin
then notes that Macron has made empty promises to him and that the West is
not ready to enforce the Accords, as they have been doing for eight years.

Ukrainian preparations in the contact zone continue. The Russian Parliament
is alarmed and on February 15 asks Vladimir Putin to recognize the
independence of the Republics, which he refuses.

On February 17, President Joe Biden announces that Russia will attack
Ukraine
<https://edition.cnn.com/2022/02/17/politics/joe-biden-russia/index.html> in
the coming days. How does he know? Mystery… But since the 16th, the
artillery shelling of the populations of Donbass has increased
dramatically, as shown by the daily reports of OSCE observers. Naturally,
neither the media, nor the European Union, nor NATO, nor any Western
government reacts and intervenes. We will say later that this is Russian
disinformation. In fact, it seems that the European Union and some
countries *purposely* glossed over the massacre of the people of Donbass,
knowing that it would provoke Russian intervention.

At the same time, there are reports of acts of sabotage in the Donbass. On
January 18, Donbass fighters intercept saboteurs equipped with Western
equipment and speaking Polish seeking to create chemical incidents in
Gorlivka
<https://sprotyv.info/news/okkupanty-minirujut-mesta-hraneniya-ammiaka-na-zavode-stirol-dannye-gruppy-is>
. They
could be CIA mercenaries
<https://news.yahoo.com/cia-trained-ukrainian-paramilitaries-may-take-central-role-if-russia-invades-185258008.html>
,
led or “advised” by Americans and made up of Ukrainian or European
fighters, to carry out sabotage actions in the Donbass Republics.

In fact, as early as February 16, Joe Biden knows that the Ukrainians began
to shell the civilian populations of Donbass, putting Vladimir Putin in
front of a difficult choice: to help Donbass militarily and create an
international problem or to sit idle and watch Russian speakers. from the
Donbass being run over.

If he decides to intervene, Vladimir Putin can invoke the international
obligation of “  *Responsibility To Protect*  ” (R2P). But he knows that
whatever its nature or scale, the intervention will trigger a shower of
sanctions. Therefore, whether its intervention is limited to the Donbass or
whether it goes further to put pressure on the West for the status of
Ukraine, the price to be paid will be the same. This is what he explains in
his speech on February 21.

That day, he acceded to the request of the Duma and recognized the
independence of the two Republics of Donbass and, in the process, he signed
treaties of friendship and assistance with them.

The Ukrainian artillery bombardments on the populations of Donbass
continued and, on February 23, the two Republics requested military aid
from Russia. On the 24th, Vladimir Putin invokes Article 51 of the United
Nations Charter which provides for mutual military assistance within the
framework of a defensive alliance.

In order to make the Russian intervention totally illegal in the eyes of
the public we *deliberately* obscure the fact that the war actually started
on February 16th. The Ukrainian army was preparing to attack the Donbass as
early as 2021, as certain Russian and European intelligence services were
well aware… The lawyers will judge.

In his speech on February 24, Vladimir Putin stated the two objectives of
his operation: to “demilitarize” and “denazify” Ukraine. It is therefore
not a question of seizing Ukraine, nor even, in all likelihood, of
occupying it and certainly not of destroying it.

>From there, our visibility on the course of the operation is limited: the
Russians have an excellent security of operations (OPSEC) and the detail of
their planning is not known. But fairly quickly, the course of operations
makes it possible to understand how the strategic objectives were
translated into the operational plan.

*– Demilitarization:*

. ground destruction of Ukrainian aviation, air defense systems and
reconnaissance assets;

. neutralization of command and intelligence structures (C3I), as well as
the main logistics routes in the depth of the territory;

. encirclement of the bulk of the Ukrainian army massed in the south-east
of the country.

*– Denazification:*

. destruction or neutralization of volunteer battalions operating in the
cities of Odessa, Kharkov and Mariupol, as well as in various facilities on
the territory.
*THE “DEMILITARIZATION”*

The Russian offensive proceeds in a very “classic” manner. At first – as
the Israelis had done in 1967 – with the destruction on the ground of the
air forces in the very first hours. Then, we witness a simultaneous
progression on several axes according to the principle of “flowing water”:
we advance wherever resistance is weak and we leave the cities (very
voracious in troops) for later. To the north, the Chernobyl plant is
occupied immediately to prevent acts of sabotage. The images of Ukrainian
and Russian soldiers jointly guarding <https://t.me/intelslava/20722> the
plant are naturally not shown…

The idea that Russia is trying to take over Kiev, the capital, to eliminate
Zelensky, typically comes from the West: this is what they did in
Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya and what they wanted to do in Syria with the help
of the Islamic State
<https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e4phB-_pXDM&t=1224s> . But
Vladimir Putin never intended to take down or overthrow Zelensky. On the
contrary, Russia seeks to keep him in power by pushing him to negotiate by
encircling kyiv. He had refused to do so far to apply the Minsk Accords,
but now the Russians want to obtain Ukraine’s neutrality.

Many Western commentators marveled that the Russians continued to seek a
negotiated solution while conducting military operations. The explanation
is in the Russian strategic conception, since Soviet times. For Westerners,
war begins when politics ceases. However, the Russian approach follows a
Clausewitzian inspiration: war is the continuity of politics and one can
pass fluidly from one to the other, even during combat. This creates
pressure on the opponent and pushes him to negotiate.

>From an operational point of view, the Russian offensive was an example of
its kind: in six days, the Russians seized a territory as vast as the
United Kingdom, with a speed of advance greater than what the Wehrmacht
made in 1940.

The bulk of the Ukrainian army was deployed in the south of the country for
a major operation against Donbass. This is why the Russian forces were able
to encircle it from the beginning of March in the “cauldron” between
Slavyansk, Kramatorsk and Severodonetsk, by a thrust coming from the east
via Kharkov and another coming from the south from the Crimea. The troops
of the Republics of Donetsk (DPR) and Lugansk (RPL) complete the action of
the Russian forces with a push from the East.

At this stage, the Russian forces are slowly tightening the noose, but are
no longer under time pressure. Their objective of demilitarization is
practically achieved and the residual Ukrainian forces no longer have an
operational and strategic command structure.

The “slowdown” that our “experts” attribute to poor logistics is only the
consequence of having achieved the objectives set. Russia does not seem to
want to engage in an occupation of the whole Ukrainian territory. In fact,
it seems rather that Russia is trying to limit its advance to the country’s
linguistic border.

Our media speak of indiscriminate bombardments against civilian
populations, particularly in Kharkov, and dantesque images are broadcast on
a loop. However, Gonzalo Lira, a Latin American who lives there, presents
us with a calm city on March 10
<https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uecv6AX8P3Q> , and on March 11
<https://youtu.be/b8RNhQjjn-4> . Admittedly it’s a big city and you can’t
see everything, but that seems to indicate that we are not in the total war
that we are being served continuously on our screens.

As for the Republics of Donbass, they have “liberated” their own
territories and are fighting in the city of Mariupol.
*“DENAZIFICATION”*

In cities like Kharkov, Mariupol and Odessa, defense is provided by
paramilitary militias. They know that the objective of “denazification” is
aimed primarily at them.

For an attacker in an urbanized area, civilians are a problem. This is why
Russia seeks to create humanitarian corridors to empty the cities of
civilians and leave only the militias in order to fight them more easily.

Conversely, these militias seek to keep civilians in the cities in order to
dissuade the Russian army from coming to fight there. This is why they are
reluctant to implement these corridors and do everything so that Russian
efforts are in vain: they can thus use the civilian population as “human
shields”. Videos showing civilians trying to leave Mariupol and being
beaten up by fighters from the Azov regiment are naturally carefully
censored here.

On Facebook, the Azov group was considered in the same category as the
Islamic State and subject to the platform’s *”  **dangerous individuals and
organizations policy ** ” . *It was therefore forbidden to glorify him, and
the “posts” that were favorable to him were systematically banned. But on
February 24, Facebook changed its policy and allowed posts favorable
<https://theintercept.com/2022/02/24/ukraine-facebook-azov-battalion-russia/>
to
the militia. In the same spirit, in March, the platform authorizes, in the
former Eastern European countries, calls for the murder of Russian soldiers
and leaders
<https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2022/mar/11/facebook-and-instagram-let-users-call-for-death-to-russian-soldiers-over-ukraine>
. So
much for the values that inspire our leaders, as we will see.

Our media propagate a romantic image of popular resistance. It is this
image that has led the European Union to finance the distribution of arms
to the civilian population. It is a criminal act. In my role as chief of
doctrine for peacekeeping operations at the UN, I worked on the issue of
the protection of civilians. We then saw that violence against civilians
took place in very specific contexts. Especially when weapons abound and
there are no command structures.

Now, these command structures are the essence of armies: their function is
to channel the use of force according to an objective. By arming citizens
in a haphazard fashion as is currently the case, the EU turns them into
combatants, with the attendant consequences: potential targets. Moreover,
without command, without operational goals, the distribution of arms
inevitably leads to settling of scores, banditry and actions that are more
deadly than effective. War becomes a matter of emotions. Force becomes
violence. This is what happened in Tawarga (Libya) from August 11 to 13,
2011, where 30,000 black Africans were massacred with weapons parachuted
(illegally) by France. Moreover, the British Royal Institute for Strategic
Studies
<https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/what-do-uk-weapons-deliveries-add-ukraines-armed-forces>(RUSI)
sees no added value in these arms deliveries.

Moreover, by delivering arms to a country at war, one exposes oneself to
being considered as a belligerent. The Russian strikes on March 13, 2022,
against the Mykolaiv air base follow Russian warnings
<https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/3/12/russia-says-it-could-target-western-arms-supplies-to-ukraine>
that
weapons transports would be treated as hostile targets.

The EU repeats the disastrous experience of the Third Reich in the last
hours of the Battle of Berlin. War should be left to the military and when
one side has lost, it should be admitted. And if there is to be resistance,
it must imperatively be led and structured. However, we are doing exactly
the opposite: we are pushing citizens to go and fight and at the same time,
Facebook is allowing calls for the murder of Russian soldiers and leaders
<https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2022/mar/11/facebook-and-instagram-let-users-call-for-death-to-russian-soldiers-over-ukraine>
. So
much for the values that inspire us.

In some intelligence services, this irresponsible decision is seen as a way
of using the Ukrainian population as cannon fodder to fight Vladimir
Putin’s Russia. This kind of murderous decision had to be left to the
colleagues of Ursula von der Leyen’s grandfather. It would have been wiser
to engage in negotiations and thus obtain guarantees for the civilian
populations than to add fuel to the fire. It’s easy to be combative with
other people’s blood…
*MARIUPOL MATERNITY*

It is important to understand beforehand that it is not the Ukrainian army
which ensures the defense of Mariupol, but the Azov militia, composed of
foreign mercenaries.

In its summary of the situation of March 7, 2022, the Russian UN mission
<https://russiaun.ru/en/news/070322n> in New York states that ”  *Residents
report that the Ukrainian armed forces have expelled the personnel of the
Natal Hospital No. 1 from the city of Mariupol and have installed a
shooting station inside the establishment* . »

On March 8, the independent Russian media Lenta.ru
<https://lenta.ru/articles/2022/03/08/mariupol/> published the testimony of
civilians from Mariupol who said that the maternity hospital was taken over
by the militias of the Azov regiment, and chased out the civilian
occupants, threatening them with their weapons. They thus confirm the
statements of the Russian ambassador a few hours earlier.

The Mariupol hospital occupies a dominant position, perfectly adequate for
installing anti-tank weapons and for observation. On March 9, Russian
forces hit the building. According to CNN
<https://edition.cnn.com/2022/03/09/europe/russia-invasion-ukraine-evacuations-03-09-intl/index.html>
,
there are 17 injured, but the footage shows no casualties on the premises
and there is no evidence that the reported casualties are related to this
strike. We talk about children, but in reality, we see nothing. It may be
true, but it may be false… Which does not prevent EU leaders from seeing it
as a war crime
<https://www.timesofisrael.com/eu-condemns-russian-bombing-of-mariupol-maternity-hospital-as-a-war-crime/>
…
Which allows Zelensky, just afterwards, to claim a no-fly zone over Ukraine…

In reality, we don’t know exactly what happened. But the sequence of events
tends to confirm that the Russian forces struck a position of the Azov
regiment and that the maternity ward was then free of all civilians.

The problem is that the paramilitary militias that ensure the defense of
cities are encouraged by the international community not to respect the
customs of war. It seems that the Ukrainians have re-enacted the scenario
of the maternity hospital in Kuwait City in 1990
<https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LmfVs3WaE9Y> , which had been completely
staged by the firm Hill & Knowlton for the amount of 10.7 million dollars
in order to convince the United Nations Security Council to intervene in
Iraq for Operation *Desert Shield/Storm* .

Western politicians have also accepted strikes against civilians in Donbass
for eight years, without adopting any sanctions against the Ukrainian
government. We have long since entered into a dynamic where Western
politicians have agreed to sacrifice international law to their objective of
weakening Russia
<https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RR3000/RR3063/RAND_RR3063.pdf>
 .
*PART THREE: CONCLUSIONS*

As a former intelligence professional, the first thing that strikes me is
the total absence of Western intelligence services in representing the
situation for a year. In Switzerland, the services have been criticized
<https://www.20min.ch/fr/story/les-services-secrets-suisses-critiques-pour-leur-manque-danticipation-324567615362?utm_source=pocket_mylist>
for
not having provided a correct picture of the situation. In fact, it seems
that all over the Western world, the services have been overwhelmed by the
politicians. The problem is that it is the politicians who decide: the best
intelligence service in the world is useless if the decision-maker does not
listen to it. This is what happened during this crisis.

That said, while some intelligence services had a very precise and rational
image of the situation, others clearly had the same image as that
propagated by our media. In this crisis, the services of the countries of
the “new Europe” played an important role. The problem is that, by
experience, I found that they were extremely bad on the analytical level:
doctrinaire, they do not have the intellectual and political independence
necessary to appreciate a situation with a military “quality”. It is better
to have them as enemies than as friends.

Then, it seems that in some European countries, politicians have
deliberately ignored their services to respond ideologically to the
situation. This is why this crisis has been irrational from the start. It
will be observed that all the documents that have been presented to the
public during this crisis have been presented by politicians on the basis
of commercial sources…

Some Western politicians obviously wanted there to be a conflict. In the
United States, the attack scenarios presented by Anthony Blinken to the
Security Council were only the fruit of the imagination of a Tiger Team
working for him
<https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/02/14/white-house-prepares-russian-invasion/>
:
he did exactly like Donald Rumsfeld in 2002, who thus “bypassed” the CIA
and other intelligence services that were far less assertive about Iraqi
chemical weapons.

The dramatic developments we are witnessing today have causes we knew
about, but refused to see:

– on the strategic level, the expansion of NATO (which we have not dealt
with here);

– on the political level, the Western refusal to implement the Minsk
Agreements;

– and on the operational level, the continuous and repeated attacks on the
civilian populations of Donbass for years and the dramatic increase at the
end of February 2022.

In other words, we can naturally deplore and condemn the Russian
attack. But WE (that is to say: the United States, France and the European
Union in the lead) have *created* the conditions for a conflict to break
out. We show compassion for the Ukrainian people and the two million
refugees <https://data2.unhcr.org/en/situations/ukraine> . It’s good. But
if we had had a modicum of compassion for the same number of refugees from
the Ukrainian populations of Donbass
<https://reliefweb.int/report/ukraine/ukraine-humanitarian-response-plan-2022-february-2022-enuk?utm_source=pocket_mylist>
massacred
by their own government and who have been accumulating in Russia for eight
years, none of this would probably have happened.

Whether the term “genocide” applies to the abuses suffered by the
populations of Donbass is an open question. This term is generally reserved
for larger cases (Holocaust, etc.), however, the definition given by the
Genocide Convention
<https://www.ohchr.org/FR/ProfessionalInterest/Pages/CrimeOfGenocide.aspx> is
probably broad enough to apply. Lawyers will appreciate.

Clearly, this conflict has led us into hysteria. Sanctions seem to have
become the preferred tool of our foreign policies. If we had insisted that
Ukraine respect the Minsk Accords, which we negotiated and endorsed, none
of this would have happened. The condemnation of Vladimir Putin is also
ours. There is no point in whining after the fact, we had to act
before. However, neither Emmanuel Macron (as guarantor and as a member of
the UN Security Council), nor Olaf Scholz, nor Volodymyr Zelensky have
respected their commitments. Ultimately, the real defeat is that of those
who have no voice.

The European Union was unable to promote the implementation of the Minsk
agreements, on the contrary, it did not react when Ukraine bombarded its
own population in the Donbass. Had she done so, Vladimir Putin would not
have needed to react. Absent from the diplomatic phase, the EU
distinguished itself by fueling the conflict. On February 27, the Ukrainian
government agrees to start negotiations
<https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/ukraine-president-kyiv-kharkiv-foreign-fighters-join-russia-putin-rcna17844>
with
Russia. But a few hours later, the European Union voted a budget of 450
million euros to supply arms
<https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-27/eu-approves-450-million-euros-in-lethal-military-aid-for-ukraine>
to
Ukraine, adding fuel to the fire. From there, the Ukrainians feel that they
will not need to come to an agreement. The resistance of the Azov militias
in Mariupol will even causea raise of 500 million euros for weapons
<https://www.rferl.org/a/european-union-sanctions-russia-ukraine-borrell/31748462.html>
 .

In Ukraine, with the blessing of Western countries, those who are in favor
of a negotiation are eliminated. This is the case of Denis Kireyev, one of
the Ukrainian negotiators, assassinated on March 5
<https://www.timesofisrael.com/ukraine-reports-claim-negotiator-shot-for-treason-officials-say-he-died-in-intel-op/>
by
the Ukrainian secret service (SBU) because he is too favorable to Russia
and is considered a traitor. The same fate is reserved for Dmitry
Demyanenko, former deputy head of the main directorate of the SBU for Kiev
and its region, assassinated on March 10
<https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZWHpVnrwfLY> , because too favorable to an
agreement with Russia: he is killed by the *Mirotvorets militia **(”  *
*Peacemaker ** “). *This militia is associated with the *Mirotvorets* website
which lists the ”  *enemies of Ukraine”*, with their personal data, address
and telephone numbers, so that they can be harassed or even eliminated
<https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/dark-website-lists-russian-spies-26051893>
 ; a
punishable practice in many countries, but not in Ukraine
<https://www.refworld.org/docid/58ec89ad13.html> . The UN and some European
countries have demanded its closure… refused by the Rada.

Eventually, the price will be high, but Vladimir Putin will likely achieve
the goals he set for himself. Its ties with Beijing have solidified. China
emerges as a mediator of the conflict, while Switzerland enters the list of
enemies of Russia. The Americans must ask Venezuela and Iran for oil to get
out of the energy impasse in which they have gotten themselves: Juan Guaido
leaves the scene definitively and the United States must pitifully reverse
the sanctions imposed on their enemies.

Western ministers who seek to collapse the Russian economy
<https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ntzacqlm-Ac> and make the Russian people
<https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n9BGOE_eVQc>suffer
<https://youtu.be/n9BGOE_eVQc?t=280> , even calling for the assassination
<https://lequotidien.lu/politique-societe/jean-asselborn-eliminer-physiquement-vladimir-poutine/>
of
Putin, show (even if they partially reversed the form of their remarks, but
not on bottom!) that our leaders are no better than the ones we
hate. Because, sanctioning Russian athletes from the Para-Olympic Games or
Russian artists has absolutely nothing to do with a fight against Putin.

Thus, therefore, we recognize that Russia is a democracy since we consider
that the Russian people are responsible for the war. If not, then why are
we trying to punish an entire population for the fault of one? Remember
that collective punishment is prohibited by the Geneva Conventions…

The lesson to be drawn from this conflict is our sense of variable geometry
humanity. If we were so attached to peace and to Ukraine, why didn’t we
encourage her more to respect the agreements that she had signed and that
the members of the Security Council had approved?

Media integrity is measured by their willingness to work under the terms of
the Munich Charter. They had succeeded in propagating hatred of the Chinese
<https://www.hrw.org/fr/news/2020/05/12/le-covid-19-attise-le-racisme-anti-asiatique-et-la-xenophobie-dans-le-monde-entier>
during
the Covid crisis and their polarized message leads to the same effects
against the Russians
<https://fr.metrotime.be/belgique/harcelement-et-racisme-les-russes-de-belgique-victimes-collaterales-de-linvasion-russe>
. Journalism
is stripping itself more and more of professionalism to become militant…

As Goethe said: “  *The greater the light, the darker the shadow*  ”. The
more the sanctions against Russia are excessive, the more the cases where
we have done nothing highlight our racism and our servility. Why has no
Western politician reacted to the strikes against the civilian populations
of Donbass for eight years?

After all, what makes the conflict in Ukraine more blameworthy than the war
in Iraq, Afghanistan or Libya? What sanctions have we adopted against those
who have deliberately lied before the international community to wage
unjust, unjustified, unjustifiable and murderous wars? Did we try to “make
suffer” the American people who had lied to us (because it’s a democracy!)
before the war in Iraq? Have we even adopted a single sanction against the
countries, companies or politicians who are fueling the conflict in Yemen,
considered the ”  worst humanitarian disaster in the world
<https://www.un.org/press/fr/2018/cs13586.doc.htm> “? Have we sanctioned
the countries of the European Union who practice the most abject torture on
their territory for the benefit of the United States?

To ask the question is to answer it… and the answer is not glorious.

Jacques Baud is a former Colonel of the General Staff, former member of
Swiss strategic intelligence, specialist in Eastern European countries. He
was trained in the American and British intelligence services. He was the
head of doctrine for United Nations peace operations. A United Nations
expert for the rule of law and security institutions, he designed and led
the first multidimensional United Nations intelligence service in Sudan. He
worked for the African Union and was responsible for the fight against the
proliferation of small arms at NATO for 5 years. He was engaged in talks
with top Russian military and intelligence officials right after the fall
of the USSR. Within NATO, he followed the Ukrainian crisis of 2014, then
participated in programs of assistance to Ukraine. He is the author of
several books on intelligence, war and terrorism, and in particular Le
Détournement published by SIGEST, Govern by fake news, The Navalny affair,
and Poutine, master of the game? published by Max Milo.
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