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<div class="gmail-header gmail-reader-header gmail-reader-show-element"><span style="color:rgb(255,255,0)"><span style="background-color:rgb(255,0,0)"><i>Of interest given the paucity of military insight in the corporate media - not to be read as an endorsement of war</i></span></span><br>
</div><div class="gmail-header gmail-reader-header gmail-reader-show-element"><br></div><div class="gmail-header gmail-reader-header gmail-reader-show-element"><a class="gmail-domain gmail-reader-domain" href="https://scheerpost.com/2022/04/09/former-nato-military-analyst-blows-the-whistle-on-wests-ukraine-invasion-narrative/">scheerpost.com</a>
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<h1 class="gmail-reader-title">Former NATO Military Analyst Blows the Whistle on West’s Ukraine Invasion Narrative</h1>
<div class="gmail-credits gmail-reader-credits">Jacques Baud - April 9, 2022<br></div>
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<img src="https://i0.wp.com/scheerpost.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/jacbaud.jpg?fit=200%2C200&ssl=1" alt="" class="gmail-moz-reader-block-img" style="margin-right: 0px;" width="200" height="200">Jacques Baud, intelligence and security consultant and former NATO military analyst
<p><strong>By Jacques Baud /<a href="https://cf2r.org/documentation/la-situation-militaire-en-ukraine/"> French Intelligence Research Center</a></strong></p>
<h2><strong>PART ONE: ON THE ROAD TO WAR</strong></h2>
<p>For years, from Mali to Afghanistan, I worked for peace and risked my
life for it. It is therefore not a question of justifying the war, but
of understanding what led us to it. I note that the “experts” who take
turns on the television sets analyze the situation based on dubious
information, most often hypotheses turned into facts, and therefore we
no longer manage to understand what is happening. That’s how you create
panic.</p>
<p>The problem is not so much who is right in this conflict, but how our leaders make their decisions.</p>
<p>Let’s try to examine the roots of the conflict. It starts with <a href="https://www.rts.ch/info/monde/6772950-les-separatistes-auraient-renforce-leurs-capacites-dattaque-en-ukraine.html">those</a> who
for the past eight years have been talking to us about “separatists” or
“independence” from the Donbass. It’s wrong. The referendums conducted
by the two self-proclaimed republics of Donetsk and Luhansk in May 2014
were not ” <em>independence ” (независимость) </em><a href="https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4d/Decree_on_holding_the_Donetsk_status_referendum.png">referendums , as some </a><a href="https://www.rts.ch/info/monde/5839879-pres-de-90-de-oui-a-lindependance-a-donetsk-selon-les-prorusses.html">unscrupulous journalists</a> claimed , but ” <em>self-determination</em> ” or ” <em>autonomy</em><a href="https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4d/Decree_on_holding_the_Donetsk_status_referendum.png"></a><em></em><em></em> (самостоятельность). The
term “pro-Russian” suggests that Russia was a party to the conflict,
which was not the case, and the term “Russian speakers” would have been
more honest. Moreover, these referendums were conducted against the
advice of Vladimir Putin.</p>
<p>In fact, these republics did not seek to separate from Ukraine, but
to have a statute of autonomy guaranteeing them the use of the Russian
language as an official language. Because the first legislative act of
the new government resulting from the overthrow of President Yanukovych,
was the abolition, on February 23, 2014, of the Kivalov-Kolesnichenko
law of 2012 which made Russian an official language. A bit as if
putschists decided that French and Italian would no longer be official
languages in Switzerland.</p>
<p>This decision causes a storm in the Russian-speaking population. This
resulted in fierce repression against the Russian-speaking regions
(Odessa, Dnepropetrovsk, Kharkov, Lugansk and Donetsk) which began in
February 2014 and led to a militarization of the situation and a few
massacres (in Odessa and Mariupol, for the most important). At the end
of summer 2014, only the self-proclaimed republics of Donetsk and
Lugansk remained.</p>
<p>At this stage, too rigid and stuck in a doctrinaire approach to the
operational art, the Ukrainian staffs suffered the enemy without
succeeding in imposing themselves. Examination of the course of the
fighting in 2014-2016 in the Donbass shows that the Ukrainian general
staff systematically and mechanically applied the same operational
plans. However, the war waged by the autonomists was then very close to
what we observed in the Sahel: very mobile operations carried out with
light means. With a more flexible and less doctrinaire approach, the
rebels were able to exploit the inertia of the Ukrainian forces to
“trap” them repeatedly.</p>
<p>In 2014, I am at NATO, responsible for the fight against the
proliferation of small arms, and we are trying to detect Russian arms
deliveries to the rebels in order to see if Moscow is involved. The
information that we receive then comes practically all from the Polish
intelligence services and does not “match” with the information from the
OSCE: in spite of rather crude allegations, we do not observe any
delivery of arms and materials Russian military.</p>
<p>The rebels are armed thanks to the defections of Russian-speaking
Ukrainian units which cross over to the rebel side. As the Ukrainian
failures progressed, the entire tank, artillery or anti-aircraft
battalions swelled the ranks of the autonomists. This is what drives the
Ukrainians to commit to the Minsk Accords.</p>
<p>But, just after signing the Minsk 1 Accords, Ukrainian President
Petro Poroshenko launched a vast anti-terrorist operation
(ATO/Антитерористична операція) against Donbass. <em>Bis repetita placent</em> :
poorly advised by NATO officers, the Ukrainians suffered a crushing
defeat at Debaltsevo which forced them to commit to the Minsk 2
Agreements…</p>
<p>It is essential to recall here that the Minsk 1 (September 2014) and
Minsk 2 (February 2015) Agreements provided for neither the separation
nor the independence of the Republics, but their autonomy <em>within the framework</em> of Ukraine. Those who have read <a href="https://www.securitycouncilreport.org/atf/cf/%7B65BFCF9B-6D27-4E9C-8CD3-CF6E4FF96FF9%7D/s_res_2202.pdf">the Accords</a> (they
are very, very, very few) will find that it is written in full that the
status of the republics was to be negotiated between Kiev and the
representatives of the republics, for an <em>internal solution</em> in Ukraine .</p>
<p>This is why since 2014, Russia has systematically demanded their
application while refusing to be a party to the negotiations, because it
was an internal matter for Ukraine. On the other side, the Westerners –
led by France – systematically tried to replace the Minsk Accords with
the “Normandy format”, which brought Russians and Ukrainians face to
face. However, let us remember, there were <em>never</em> any Russian troops in the Donbass before February 23-24, 2022. Moreover, <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/10/25/counting-the-dead-in-europes-forgotten-war-ukraine-conflict-donbass-osce/">OSCE observers</a> have
never observed the slightest trace of Russian units operating in the
Donbass. Thus, the US intelligence map published by the <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/russia-ukraine-invasion/2021/12/03/98a3760e-546b-11ec-8769-2f4ecdf7a2ad_story.html">Washington Post</a> on December 3, 2021 does not show Russian troops in Donbass.</p>
<p>In October 2015, Vasyl Hrytsak, <a href="https://www.kyivpost.com/article/content/war-against-ukraine/sbu-registers-involvement-of-56-russian-in-military-actions-against-ukraine-since-military-conflict-in-eastern-ukraien-unfolded-399718.html">director of the Ukrainian Security Service</a> (SBU),
confessed that only 56 Russian fighters had been observed in the
Donbass. It was an even comparable to that of the Swiss going to fight
in Bosnia during the weekends, in the 1990s, or the French who are going
to fight in Ukraine today.</p>
<p>The Ukrainian army was then in a deplorable state. In October 2018, after four years of war, <a href="https://vesti.ua/strana/309880-nazvany-neboevye-poteri-vsu-na-donbasse">Ukraine’s chief military prosecutor Anatoly Matios</a> said
that Ukraine had lost 2,700 men in the Donbass: 891 from disease, 318
from traffic accidents, 177 from other accidents, 175 from poisoning
(alcohol, drugs), 172 from careless handling of weapons, 101 from
breaches of safety rules, 228 from murder and 615 from suicide. </p>
<p>In fact, the army is undermined by the corruption of its cadres and
no longer enjoys the support of the population. According to a <a href="https://www.justice.gov/eoir/page/file/1008261/download">UK Home Office report</a> , when reservists were called up in March-April 2014, 70% did <em>not</em> show up for the first session, 80% for the second, 90% for the third and 95% for the fourth. In October/November 2017, <a href="https://ipress.ua/ru/news/v_vsu_zayavyly_o_70_neyavky_vo_vremya_osennego_pryziva_237367.html">70% of callers did not show up</a> during the <em>“ </em><em>Autumn 2017 </em><em> ” callback campaign. </em>This does not include <a href="https://observer.com/2017/06/ukraine-war-soldiers-suicide/">suicides</a> and <a href="https://www.refworld.org/docid/593a581b4.html">desertions</a>(often
for the benefit of the autonomists) which reach up to 30% of the
workforce in the ATO zone. Young Ukrainians refuse to go and fight in
the Donbass and prefer emigration, which also explains, at least
partially, the country’s demographic deficit.</p>
<p>The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense then turned to NATO to help it make
its armed forces more “attractive”. Having already worked on similar
projects within the framework of the United Nations, I was asked by NATO
to participate in a program intended to restore the image of the
Ukrainian armed forces. But it’s a long process and the Ukrainians want
to go quickly.</p>
<p>Thus, to compensate for the lack of soldiers, the Ukrainian
government resorted to paramilitary militias. They are essentially made
up of foreign mercenaries, often far-right activists. As of 2020, they
constitute around 40% of Ukraine’s forces and number <a href="https://graphics.reuters.com/RUSSIA-UKRAINE/dwpkrkwkgvm/">around 102,000 men according to Reuters</a> . They
are armed, financed and trained by the United States, Great Britain,
Canada and France. There are more than 19 nationalities – including
Swiss.</p>
<p>Western countries have therefore clearly created and supported <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2022/03/05/russia-invasion-ukraine-attention-extremist-regiment-nazi/9368016002/?gnt-cfr=1">Ukrainian far-right militias</a> . In October 2021, the <a href="https://www.jpost.com/diaspora/western-countries-training-far-right-extremists-in-ukraine-report-682411">Jerusalem Post</a> sounded the alarm by denouncing the <a href="https://www.illiberalism.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/IERES-Papers-no-11-September-2021-FINAL.pdf">Centuria</a> project
. These militias have been operating in the Donbass since 2014, with
Western support. Even if we can discuss the term “Nazi”, the fact
remains that these militias are violent, convey a nauseating ideology
and are virulently anti-Semitic. Their <a href="https://www.jpost.com/diaspora/ukraine-progressively-restores-historical-memory-about-jews-652438">anti-Semitism is more cultural than political</a>,
which is why the adjective “Nazi” is not really appropriate. Their
hatred of the Jew comes from the great famines of the years 1920-1930 in
Ukraine, resulting from the confiscation of crops by Stalin in order to
finance the modernization of the Red Army. However, this genocide –
known in Ukraine under the name of <em>Holodomor</em> – was perpetrated
by the NKVD (ancestor of the KGB) whose upper echelons of leadership
were mainly composed of Jews. That is why, today, Ukrainian extremists
are asking Israel to <a href="https://www.jpost.com/diaspora/antisemitism/far-right-protesters-in-ukraine-demand-israel-apologize-for-communism-654711">apologize for the crimes of communism</a> , as the <em>Jerusalem Post</em> reports . We are therefore a long way from a “ <a href="https://www.rts.ch/info/monde/12928403-podcast-ukrainerussie-cest-quoi-cette-histoire-de-nazis.html">rewriting of history </a> ” by Vladimir Putin.</p>
<p>These militias, stemming from the far-right groups that led the
Euromaidan revolution in 2014, are made up of fanatical and brutal
individuals. The best known of these is the Azov regiment, whose emblem
is reminiscent of that of the 2nd SS <sup>Das </sup><em>Reich</em> Panzer
Division , which is the object of real veneration in Ukraine, for
having liberated Kharkov from the Soviets in 1943, before to perpetrate
the massacre of Oradour-sur-Glane in 1944, in France.</p>
<p>Among the famous figures of the Azov regiment was the opponent Roman
Protassevich, arrested in 2021 by the Belarusian authorities following
the case of RyanAir flight FR4978. On May 23, 2021, there is talk of
the <a href="https://www.rts.ch/info/monde/12220530-la-bielorussie-a-arrete-un-militant-apres-avoir-intercepte-son-avion.html">deliberate hijacking of an airliner</a> by a MiG-29 – with <a href="https://youtu.be/-LfZt4ESJ44?t=148">Putin’s agreement</a> , of course – to arrest Protassevich, although the <a href="https://www.belta.by/president/view/komandu-prinjat-v-minske-zaminirovannyj-samolet-ryanair-dal-lichno-lukashenko-442580-2021/)">information then available</a> does not confirm this scenario in any way.</p>
<p>But it must then be shown that President Lukashenko is a thug and
Protassevich a “journalist” in love with democracy. However, a rather
edifying investigation produced by an <a href="https://www.foiaresearch.net/person/roman-protasevich">American NGO in 2020</a> , highlighted Protassevich’s far-right militant activities. Western conspiracy then sets in motion and unscrupulous media <a href="https://www.rts.ch/audio-podcast/2021/audio/portrait-de-l-opposant-belarusse-roman-protassevitch-25201392.html">“groom” his biography</a> . Finally, in January 2022, <a href="https://www.politico.eu/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/19/ICAO-Fact-Finding-Investigation-Report_FR497849.pdf">the ICAO report</a> is
published and shows that despite some procedural errors, Belarus acted
in accordance with the rules in force and that the MiG-29 took off 15
minutes after the RyanAir pilot decided to land in Minsk. So no Belarus
plot and even less with Putin. Ah!… One more detail: Protassevich,<a href="https://ici.radio-canada.ca/nouvelle/1798764/opposant-belarus-entrevue-television-torture-interdiction-vols-ue">cruelly tortured</a> by Belarusian police, is now free. Those who would like to correspond with him, can go to his <a href="https://twitter.com/protas_by">Twitter</a> account .</p>
<p>The labeling of “Nazi” or “neo-Nazi” given to Ukrainian paramilitaries is considered <a href="https://www.lemonde.fr/international/live/2021/05/28/avion-detourne-par-la-bielorussie-sanctions-de-l-union-europeenne-posez-vos-questions_6081892_3210.html">Russian propaganda</a> . Perhaps ; but that is not the opinion of The <a href="https://www.timesofisrael.com/hundreds-march-in-ukraine-in-annual-tribute-to-nazi-collaborator/">Times of Israel</a> , the <a href="https://www.thenation.com/article/politics/neo-nazis-far-right-ukraine/">Simon Wiesenthal Center</a> or the Counterterrorism <a href="https://ctc.usma.edu/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/CTC-SENTINEL-042020.pdf">Center</a> at West Point Academy. But this remains debatable, because, in 2014, <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/evidence-war-crimes-committed-ukrainian-nationalist-volunteers-grows-269604">Newsweek magazine</a> seemed to associate them with… the Islamic State. A choice !</p>
<p>So the West supports and continues to arm militias that have been guilty of numerous <a href="https://www.osce.org/files/f/documents/e/7/233896.pdf">crimes against civilian populations since 2014 </a> :
rape, torture and massacres. But while the Swiss government has been
very quick to impose sanctions against Russia, it has not adopted any
against Ukraine, which has been slaughtering its own population since
2014. In fact, those who <a href="https://www.osce.org/files/f/documents/6/0/394781.pdf">defend the rights of the men in Ukraine</a> have
long condemned the actions of these groups, but have not been followed
by our governments. Because, in reality, we are not trying to help
Ukraine, but to fight Russia.</p>
<p>The integration of these paramilitary forces into the National Guard was not at all accompanied by a “denazification”, as <a href="https://www.rts.ch/info/monde/12928403-podcast-ukrainerussie-cest-quoi-cette-histoire-de-nazis.html">some claim</a> . Among the many examples, that of the insignia of the Azov Regiment is edifying:</p>
<img src="https://i0.wp.com/scheerpost.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/Ukraine-Neo-Nazis.jpg?resize=780%2C364&is-pending-load=1#038;ssl=1" alt="" class="gmail-moz-reader-block-img" style="margin-right: 25px;" width="408" height="190">
<p>In 2022, very schematically, the Ukrainian armed forces fighting the Russian offensive are structured as:</p>
<p>– Army, subordinate to the Ministry of Defence: it is articulated in 3
army corps and composed of maneuver formations (tanks, heavy artillery,
missiles, etc.).</p>
<p>– National Guard, which depends on the Ministry of the Interior and is articulated in 5 territorial commands.</p>
<p>The National Guard is therefore a territorial defense force which is
not part of the Ukrainian army. It includes paramilitary militias,
called ” <em>volunteer battalions”</em> (добровольчі батальйоні), also known by the evocative name of <em>” retaliatory battalions “,</em> composed
of infantry. Mainly trained for urban combat, they now ensure the
defense of cities such as Kharkov, Mariupol, Odessa, kyiv, etc.</p>
<h2><strong>PART TWO: THE WAR</strong></h2>
<p>Former head of the Warsaw Pact forces in the Swiss strategic
intelligence service, I observe with sadness – but not astonishment –
that our services are no longer in a position to understand the
military situation in Ukraine. The self-proclaimed “experts” who parade
across our screens tirelessly relay the same information modulated by
the assertion that Russia – and Vladimir Putin – is irrational. Let’s
take a step back.</p>
<h4><strong>THE OUTBREAK OF WAR</strong></h4>
<p>Since November 2021, the Americans have constantly brandished the
threat of a Russian invasion against Ukraine. However, the Ukrainians do
not seem to agree. Why ?</p>
<p>We have to go back to March 24, 2021. On that day, Volodymyr Zelensky issued <a href="https://www.president.gov.ua/documents/1172021-37533">a decree</a> for the <a href="https://www.president.gov.ua/news/prezident-zatverdiv-strategiyu-deokupaciyi-ta-reintegraciyi-67321">reconquest of Crimea</a> and
began to deploy his forces towards the south of the
country. Simultaneously, several NATO exercises were conducted between
the Black Sea and the Baltic Sea, accompanied by a <a href="https://www.janes.com/defence-news/news-detail/us-uk-surge-surveillance-flights-over-ukraine-and-black-sea">significant increase in reconnaissance flights</a> along
the Russian border. Russia then conducts a few exercises to test the
operational readiness of its troops and show that it is following the
evolution of the situation.</p>
<p>Things calm down until October-November with the end of the ZAPAD 21
exercises, whose troop movements are interpreted as a reinforcement for
an offensive against Ukraine. However, even the Ukrainian authorities
refute the idea of Russian preparations for a war and Oleksiy
Reznikov, Ukrainian Minister of Defense declares that there has <a href="https://kyivindependent.com/hot-topic/defense-minister-downplays-russias-threat-says-its-similar-to-that-of-spring-2021/">been no change</a> on its border since the spring.</p>
<p>In violation of the Minsk Accords, Ukraine is conducting aerial operations in Donbass using drones, including at least <a href="https://nationalinterest.org/feature/ukraine%E2%80%99s-recent-drone-strike-reignites-tensions-donbass-195709">one strike against a fuel depot in Donetsk in October 2021</a> . The American press points this out, but not the Europeans and no one condemns these violations.</p>
<p>In February 2022, events rush. On February 7, during his visit to Moscow, Emmanuel Macron reaffirms to Vladimir Putin <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QHDAYz7g4u4">his attachment to the Minsk Accords</a> , a commitment he will repeat after his <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=InrDN7jYVOs">interview with Volodymyr Zelensky</a> the
next day. But on February 11, in Berlin, after 9 hours of work, the
meeting of the political advisers of the leaders of the <em>” </em><em>Normandy format </em><em> “</em> ends, without concrete result: the <a href="https://www.aa.com.tr/en/europe/normandy-format-talks-in-berlin-end-without-tangible-results/2499568">Ukrainians still and always refuse to apply the Accords</a>of
Minsk, apparently under pressure from the United States. Vladimir Putin
then notes that Macron has made empty promises to him and that the West
is not ready to enforce the Accords, as they have been doing for eight
years.</p>
<p>Ukrainian preparations in the contact zone continue. The Russian
Parliament is alarmed and on February 15 asks Vladimir Putin to
recognize the independence of the Republics, which he refuses.</p>
<p>On February 17, President Joe Biden <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2022/02/17/politics/joe-biden-russia/index.html">announces that Russia will attack Ukraine</a> in
the coming days. How does he know? Mystery… But since the 16th, the
artillery shelling of the populations of Donbass has increased
dramatically, as shown by the daily reports of OSCE
observers. Naturally, neither the media, nor the European Union, nor
NATO, nor any Western government reacts and intervenes. We will say
later that this is Russian disinformation. In fact, it seems that the
European Union and some countries <em>purposely</em> glossed over the massacre of the people of Donbass, knowing that it would provoke Russian intervention.</p>
<p>At the same time, there are reports of acts of sabotage in the
Donbass. On January 18, Donbass fighters intercept saboteurs equipped
with Western equipment and speaking Polish seeking to create chemical
incidents in <a href="https://sprotyv.info/news/okkupanty-minirujut-mesta-hraneniya-ammiaka-na-zavode-stirol-dannye-gruppy-is">Gorlivka</a> . They could be <a href="https://news.yahoo.com/cia-trained-ukrainian-paramilitaries-may-take-central-role-if-russia-invades-185258008.html">CIA mercenaries</a> ,
led or “advised” by Americans and made up of Ukrainian or European
fighters, to carry out sabotage actions in the Donbass Republics.</p>
<img src="https://i0.wp.com/scheerpost.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/Number-of-Explosions-in-Donbass-19-20-February-2022.jpg?resize=780%2C780&is-pending-load=1#038;ssl=1" alt="" class="gmail-moz-reader-block-img" style="margin-right: 25px;" width="408" height="408">
<img src="https://i0.wp.com/scheerpost.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/Capture-decran-2022-03-13-a-22.46.36-214x300-1.png?resize=508%2C713&is-pending-load=1#038;ssl=1" alt="" class="gmail-moz-reader-block-img" style="margin-right: 0px;" width="291" height="408">
<p>In fact, as early as February 16, Joe Biden knows that the Ukrainians
began to shell the civilian populations of Donbass, putting Vladimir
Putin in front of a difficult choice: to help Donbass militarily and
create an international problem or to sit idle and watch Russian
speakers. from the Donbass being run over.</p>
<p>If he decides to intervene, Vladimir Putin can invoke the international obligation of “ <em>Responsibility To Protect</em> ”
(R2P). But he knows that whatever its nature or scale, the intervention
will trigger a shower of sanctions. Therefore, whether its intervention
is limited to the Donbass or whether it goes further to put pressure on
the West for the status of Ukraine, the price to be paid will be the
same. This is what he explains in his speech on February 21.</p>
<p>That day, he acceded to the request of the Duma and recognized the
independence of the two Republics of Donbass and, in the process, he
signed treaties of friendship and assistance with them.</p>
<p>The Ukrainian artillery bombardments on the populations of Donbass
continued and, on February 23, the two Republics requested military aid
from Russia. On the 24th, Vladimir Putin invokes Article 51 of the
United Nations Charter which provides for mutual military assistance
within the framework of a defensive alliance.</p>
<p>In order to make the Russian intervention totally illegal in the eyes of the public we <em>deliberately</em> obscure
the fact that the war actually started on February 16th. The Ukrainian
army was preparing to attack the Donbass as early as 2021, as certain
Russian and European intelligence services were well aware… The lawyers
will judge.</p>
<p>In his speech on February 24, Vladimir Putin stated the two
objectives of his operation: to “demilitarize” and “denazify”
Ukraine. It is therefore not a question of seizing Ukraine, nor even, in
all likelihood, of occupying it and certainly not of destroying it.</p>
<p>From there, our visibility on the course of the operation is limited:
the Russians have an excellent security of operations (OPSEC) and the
detail of their planning is not known. But fairly quickly, the course of
operations makes it possible to understand how the strategic objectives
were translated into the operational plan.</p>
<p><em>– Demilitarization:</em></p>
<p>. ground destruction of Ukrainian aviation, air defense systems and reconnaissance assets;</p>
<p>. neutralization of command and intelligence structures (C3I), as
well as the main logistics routes in the depth of the territory;</p>
<p>. encirclement of the bulk of the Ukrainian army massed in the south-east of the country.</p>
<p><em>– Denazification:</em></p>
<p>. destruction or neutralization of volunteer battalions operating in
the cities of Odessa, Kharkov and Mariupol, as well as in various
facilities on the territory.</p>
<h3><strong>THE “DEMILITARIZATION”</strong></h3>
<p>The Russian offensive proceeds in a very “classic” manner. At first –
as the Israelis had done in 1967 – with the destruction on the ground
of the air forces in the very first hours. Then, we witness a
simultaneous progression on several axes according to the principle of
“flowing water”: we advance wherever resistance is weak and we leave the
cities (very voracious in troops) for later. To the north, the
Chernobyl plant is occupied immediately to prevent acts of sabotage. The
images of Ukrainian and Russian soldiers <a href="https://t.me/intelslava/20722">jointly guarding</a> the plant are naturally not shown…</p>
<p>The idea that Russia is trying to take over Kiev, the capital, to
eliminate Zelensky, typically comes from the West: this is what they did
in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya and what they <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e4phB-_pXDM&t=1224s">wanted to do in Syria with the help of the Islamic State</a> . But
Vladimir Putin never intended to take down or overthrow Zelensky. On
the contrary, Russia seeks to keep him in power by pushing him to
negotiate by encircling kyiv. He had refused to do so far to apply the
Minsk Accords, but now the Russians want to obtain Ukraine’s neutrality.</p>
<p>Many Western commentators marveled that the Russians continued to
seek a negotiated solution while conducting military operations. The
explanation is in the Russian strategic conception, since Soviet
times. For Westerners, war begins when politics ceases. However, the
Russian approach follows a Clausewitzian inspiration: war is the
continuity of politics and one can pass fluidly from one to the other,
even during combat. This creates pressure on the opponent and pushes him
to negotiate.</p>
<p>From an operational point of view, the Russian offensive was an
example of its kind: in six days, the Russians seized a territory as
vast as the United Kingdom, with a speed of advance greater than what
the Wehrmacht made in 1940.</p>
<p>The bulk of the Ukrainian army was deployed in the south of the
country for a major operation against Donbass. This is why the Russian
forces were able to encircle it from the beginning of March in the
“cauldron” between Slavyansk, Kramatorsk and Severodonetsk, by a thrust
coming from the east via Kharkov and another coming from the south from
the Crimea. The troops of the Republics of Donetsk (DPR) and Lugansk
(RPL) complete the action of the Russian forces with a push from the
East.</p>
<p>At this stage, the Russian forces are slowly tightening the noose,
but are no longer under time pressure. Their objective of
demilitarization is practically achieved and the residual Ukrainian
forces no longer have an operational and strategic command structure.</p>
<p>The “slowdown” that our “experts” attribute to poor logistics is only
the consequence of having achieved the objectives set. Russia does not
seem to want to engage in an occupation of the whole Ukrainian
territory. In fact, it seems rather that Russia is trying to limit its
advance to the country’s linguistic border. </p>
<p>Our media speak of indiscriminate bombardments against civilian
populations, particularly in Kharkov, and dantesque images are broadcast
on a loop. However, Gonzalo Lira, a Latin American who lives there,
presents us with a calm city on <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uecv6AX8P3Q">March 10</a> , and on <a href="https://youtu.be/b8RNhQjjn-4">March 11</a> . Admittedly
it’s a big city and you can’t see everything, but that seems to
indicate that we are not in the total war that we are being served
continuously on our screens.</p>
<p>As for the Republics of Donbass, they have “liberated” their own territories and are fighting in the city of Mariupol.</p>
<h3><strong>“DENAZIFICATION”</strong></h3>
<p>In cities like Kharkov, Mariupol and Odessa, defense is provided by
paramilitary militias. They know that the objective of “denazification”
is aimed primarily at them.</p>
<p>For an attacker in an urbanized area, civilians are a problem. This
is why Russia seeks to create humanitarian corridors to empty the cities
of civilians and leave only the militias in order to fight them more
easily.</p>
<p>Conversely, these militias seek to keep civilians in the cities in
order to dissuade the Russian army from coming to fight there. This is
why they are reluctant to implement these corridors and do everything so
that Russian efforts are in vain: they can thus use the civilian
population as “human shields”. Videos showing civilians trying to leave
Mariupol and being beaten up by fighters from the Azov regiment are
naturally carefully censored here.</p>
<p>On Facebook, the Azov group was considered in the same category as the Islamic State and subject to the platform’s <em>” </em><em>dangerous individuals and organizations policy </em><em> ” . </em>It
was therefore forbidden to glorify him, and the “posts” that were
favorable to him were systematically banned. But on February 24,
Facebook changed its policy and <a href="https://theintercept.com/2022/02/24/ukraine-facebook-azov-battalion-russia/">allowed posts favorable</a> to the militia. In the same spirit, in March, the platform authorizes, in the former Eastern European countries, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2022/mar/11/facebook-and-instagram-let-users-call-for-death-to-russian-soldiers-over-ukraine">calls for the murder of Russian soldiers and leaders</a> . So much for the values that inspire our leaders, as we will see. </p>
<p>Our media propagate a romantic image of popular resistance. It is
this image that has led the European Union to finance the distribution
of arms to the civilian population. It is a criminal act. In my role as
chief of doctrine for peacekeeping operations at the UN, I worked on the
issue of the protection of civilians. We then saw that violence against
civilians took place in very specific contexts. Especially when weapons
abound and there are no command structures.</p>
<p>Now, these command structures are the essence of armies: their
function is to channel the use of force according to an objective. By
arming citizens in a haphazard fashion as is currently the case, the EU
turns them into combatants, with the attendant consequences: potential
targets. Moreover, without command, without operational goals, the
distribution of arms inevitably leads to settling of scores, banditry
and actions that are more deadly than effective. War becomes a matter of
emotions. Force becomes violence. This is what happened in Tawarga
(Libya) from August 11 to 13, 2011, where 30,000 black Africans were
massacred with weapons parachuted (illegally) by France. Moreover, <a href="https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/what-do-uk-weapons-deliveries-add-ukraines-armed-forces">the British Royal Institute for Strategic Studies</a>(RUSI) sees no added value in these arms deliveries.</p>
<p>Moreover, by delivering arms to a country at war, one exposes oneself
to being considered as a belligerent. The Russian strikes on March 13,
2022, against the Mykolaiv air base follow <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/3/12/russia-says-it-could-target-western-arms-supplies-to-ukraine">Russian warnings</a> that weapons transports would be treated as hostile targets.</p>
<p>The EU repeats the disastrous experience of the Third Reich in the
last hours of the Battle of Berlin. War should be left to the military
and when one side has lost, it should be admitted. And if there is to be
resistance, it must imperatively be led and structured. However, we are
doing exactly the opposite: we are pushing citizens to go and fight and
at the same time, Facebook is allowing <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2022/mar/11/facebook-and-instagram-let-users-call-for-death-to-russian-soldiers-over-ukraine">calls for the murder of Russian soldiers and leaders</a> . So much for the values that inspire us. </p>
<p>In some intelligence services, this irresponsible decision is seen as
a way of using the Ukrainian population as cannon fodder to fight
Vladimir Putin’s Russia. This kind of murderous decision had to be left
to the colleagues of Ursula von der Leyen’s grandfather. It would have
been wiser to engage in negotiations and thus obtain guarantees for the
civilian populations than to add fuel to the fire. It’s easy to be
combative with other people’s blood…</p>
<h3><strong>MARIUPOL MATERNITY</strong></h3>
<p>It is important to understand beforehand that it is not the Ukrainian
army which ensures the defense of Mariupol, but the Azov militia,
composed of foreign mercenaries.</p>
<p>In its summary of the situation of March 7, 2022, <a href="https://russiaun.ru/en/news/070322n">the Russian UN mission</a> in New York states that ” <em>Residents
report that the Ukrainian armed forces have expelled the personnel of
the Natal Hospital No. 1 from the city of Mariupol and have installed a
shooting station inside the establishment</em> . »</p>
<p>On March 8, the <a href="https://lenta.ru/articles/2022/03/08/mariupol/">independent Russian media Lenta.ru</a> published
the testimony of civilians from Mariupol who said that the maternity
hospital was taken over by the militias of the Azov regiment, and chased
out the civilian occupants, threatening them with their weapons. They
thus confirm the statements of the Russian ambassador a few hours
earlier.</p>
<p>The Mariupol hospital occupies a dominant position, perfectly
adequate for installing anti-tank weapons and for observation. On March
9, Russian forces hit the building. <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2022/03/09/europe/russia-invasion-ukraine-evacuations-03-09-intl/index.html">According to CNN</a> ,
there are 17 injured, but the footage shows no casualties on the
premises and there is no evidence that the reported casualties are
related to this strike. We talk about children, but in reality, we see
nothing. It may be true, but it may be false… Which does not prevent <a href="https://www.timesofisrael.com/eu-condemns-russian-bombing-of-mariupol-maternity-hospital-as-a-war-crime/">EU leaders from seeing it as a war crime</a> … Which allows Zelensky, just afterwards, to claim a no-fly zone over Ukraine…</p>
<p>In reality, we don’t know exactly what happened. But the sequence of
events tends to confirm that the Russian forces struck a position of the
Azov regiment and that the maternity ward was then free of all
civilians.</p>
<p>The problem is that the paramilitary militias that ensure the defense
of cities are encouraged by the international community not to respect
the customs of war. It seems that the Ukrainians have re-enacted the
scenario of the <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LmfVs3WaE9Y">maternity hospital in Kuwait City in 1990</a> ,
which had been completely staged by the firm Hill & Knowlton for
the amount of 10.7 million dollars in order to convince the United
Nations Security Council to intervene in Iraq for Operation <em>Desert Shield/Storm</em> .</p>
<p>Western politicians have also accepted strikes against civilians in
Donbass for eight years, without adopting any sanctions against the
Ukrainian government. We have long since entered into a dynamic where
Western politicians have agreed to sacrifice international law to their
objective <a href="https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RR3000/RR3063/RAND_RR3063.pdf">of weakening Russia</a> .</p>
<h2><strong>PART THREE: CONCLUSIONS</strong></h2>
<p>As a former intelligence professional, the first thing that strikes
me is the total absence of Western intelligence services in representing
the situation for a year. In Switzerland, the services <a href="https://www.20min.ch/fr/story/les-services-secrets-suisses-critiques-pour-leur-manque-danticipation-324567615362?utm_source=pocket_mylist">have been criticized</a> for
not having provided a correct picture of the situation. In fact, it
seems that all over the Western world, the services have been
overwhelmed by the politicians. The problem is that it is the
politicians who decide: the best intelligence service in the world is
useless if the decision-maker does not listen to it. This is what
happened during this crisis.</p>
<p>That said, while some intelligence services had a very precise and
rational image of the situation, others clearly had the same image as
that propagated by our media. In this crisis, the services of the
countries of the “new Europe” played an important role. The problem is
that, by experience, I found that they were extremely bad on the
analytical level: doctrinaire, they do not have the intellectual and
political independence necessary to appreciate a situation with a
military “quality”. It is better to have them as enemies than as
friends.</p>
<p>Then, it seems that in some European countries, politicians have
deliberately ignored their services to respond ideologically to the
situation. This is why this crisis has been irrational from the
start. It will be observed that all the documents that have been
presented to the public during this crisis have been presented by
politicians on the basis of commercial sources…</p>
<p>Some Western politicians obviously wanted there to be a conflict. In
the United States, the attack scenarios presented by Anthony Blinken to
the Security Council were only the fruit of the imagination of a <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/02/14/white-house-prepares-russian-invasion/">Tiger Team working for him </a> :
he did exactly like Donald Rumsfeld in 2002, who thus “bypassed” the
CIA and other intelligence services that were far less assertive about
Iraqi chemical weapons.</p>
<p>The dramatic developments we are witnessing today have causes we knew about, but refused to see:</p>
<p>– on the strategic level, the expansion of NATO (which we have not dealt with here);</p>
<p>– on the political level, the Western refusal to implement the Minsk Agreements;</p>
<p>– and on the operational level, the continuous and repeated attacks
on the civilian populations of Donbass for years and the dramatic
increase at the end of February 2022.</p>
<p>In other words, we can naturally deplore and condemn the Russian
attack. But WE (that is to say: the United States, France and the
European Union in the lead) have <em>created</em> the conditions for a conflict to break out. We show compassion for the Ukrainian people and the <a href="https://data2.unhcr.org/en/situations/ukraine">two million refugees</a> . It’s good. But if we had had a modicum of compassion for the same number of <a href="https://reliefweb.int/report/ukraine/ukraine-humanitarian-response-plan-2022-february-2022-enuk?utm_source=pocket_mylist">refugees from the Ukrainian populations of Donbass</a> massacred
by their own government and who have been accumulating in Russia for
eight years, none of this would probably have happened.</p>
<img src="https://i0.wp.com/scheerpost.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/IMG_0179.jpg?resize=780%2C353&is-pending-load=1#038;ssl=1" alt="" class="gmail-moz-reader-block-img" style="margin-right: 25px;" width="408" height="185">
<p>Whether the term “genocide” applies to the abuses suffered by the
populations of Donbass is an open question. This term is generally
reserved for larger cases (Holocaust, etc.), however, the definition
given <a href="https://www.ohchr.org/FR/ProfessionalInterest/Pages/CrimeOfGenocide.aspx">by the Genocide Convention</a> is probably broad enough to apply. Lawyers will appreciate.</p>
<p>Clearly, this conflict has led us into hysteria. Sanctions seem to
have become the preferred tool of our foreign policies. If we had
insisted that Ukraine respect the Minsk Accords, which we negotiated and
endorsed, none of this would have happened. The condemnation of
Vladimir Putin is also ours. There is no point in whining after the
fact, we had to act before. However, neither Emmanuel Macron (as
guarantor and as a member of the UN Security Council), nor Olaf Scholz,
nor Volodymyr Zelensky have respected their commitments. Ultimately, the
real defeat is that of those who have no voice.</p>
<p>The European Union was unable to promote the implementation of the
Minsk agreements, on the contrary, it did not react when Ukraine
bombarded its own population in the Donbass. Had she done so, Vladimir
Putin would not have needed to react. Absent from the diplomatic phase,
the EU distinguished itself by fueling the conflict. On February 27, the
Ukrainian government <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/ukraine-president-kyiv-kharkiv-foreign-fighters-join-russia-putin-rcna17844">agrees to start negotiations</a> with Russia. But a few hours later, the European Union voted a budget of <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-27/eu-approves-450-million-euros-in-lethal-military-aid-for-ukraine">450 million euros to supply arms</a> to
Ukraine, adding fuel to the fire. From there, the Ukrainians feel that
they will not need to come to an agreement. The resistance of the Azov
militias in Mariupol will even cause<a href="https://www.rferl.org/a/european-union-sanctions-russia-ukraine-borrell/31748462.html">a raise of 500 million euros for weapons</a> .</p>
<p>In Ukraine, with the blessing of Western countries, those who are in
favor of a negotiation are eliminated. This is the case of Denis
Kireyev, one of the Ukrainian negotiators, <a href="https://www.timesofisrael.com/ukraine-reports-claim-negotiator-shot-for-treason-officials-say-he-died-in-intel-op/">assassinated on March 5</a> by
the Ukrainian secret service (SBU) because he is too favorable to
Russia and is considered a traitor. The same fate is reserved for Dmitry
Demyanenko, former deputy head of the main directorate of the SBU for
Kiev and its region, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZWHpVnrwfLY">assassinated on March 10</a> , because too favorable to an agreement with Russia: he is killed by the <em>Mirotvorets militia </em><em>(” </em><em>Peacemaker </em><em> “). </em>This militia is associated with the <em>Mirotvorets</em> website which lists the ” <em>enemies of Ukraine”</em>, with their personal data, address and telephone numbers, so that they <a href="https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/dark-website-lists-russian-spies-26051893">can be harassed or even eliminated</a> ; a punishable practice in many countries, but <a href="https://www.refworld.org/docid/58ec89ad13.html">not in Ukraine</a> . The UN and some European countries have demanded its closure… refused by the Rada.</p>
<p>Eventually, the price will be high, but Vladimir Putin will likely
achieve the goals he set for himself. Its ties with Beijing have
solidified. China emerges as a mediator of the conflict, while
Switzerland enters the list of enemies of Russia. The Americans must ask
Venezuela and Iran for oil to get out of the energy impasse in which
they have gotten themselves: Juan Guaido leaves the scene definitively
and the United States must pitifully reverse the sanctions imposed on
their enemies.</p>
<p>Western ministers who seek to <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ntzacqlm-Ac">collapse the Russian economy</a> and make the <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n9BGOE_eVQc">Russian people </a><a href="https://youtu.be/n9BGOE_eVQc?t=280">suffer</a> , even calling for the <a href="https://lequotidien.lu/politique-societe/jean-asselborn-eliminer-physiquement-vladimir-poutine/">assassination</a> of
Putin, show (even if they partially reversed the form of their remarks,
but not on bottom!) that our leaders are no better than the ones we
hate. Because, sanctioning Russian athletes from the Para-Olympic Games
or Russian artists has absolutely nothing to do with a fight against
Putin.</p>
<p>Thus, therefore, we recognize that Russia is a democracy since we
consider that the Russian people are responsible for the war. If not,
then why are we trying to punish an entire population for the fault of
one? Remember that collective punishment is prohibited by the Geneva
Conventions…</p>
<p>The lesson to be drawn from this conflict is our sense of variable
geometry humanity. If we were so attached to peace and to Ukraine, why
didn’t we encourage her more to respect the agreements that she had
signed and that the members of the Security Council had approved?</p>
<p>Media integrity is measured by their willingness to work under the
terms of the Munich Charter. They had succeeded in propagating <a href="https://www.hrw.org/fr/news/2020/05/12/le-covid-19-attise-le-racisme-anti-asiatique-et-la-xenophobie-dans-le-monde-entier">hatred of the Chinese</a> during the Covid crisis and their polarized message leads to the <a href="https://fr.metrotime.be/belgique/harcelement-et-racisme-les-russes-de-belgique-victimes-collaterales-de-linvasion-russe">same effects against the Russians</a> . Journalism is stripping itself more and more of professionalism to become militant…</p>
<p>As Goethe said: “ <em>The greater the light, the darker the shadow</em> ”. The
more the sanctions against Russia are excessive, the more the cases
where we have done nothing highlight our racism and our servility. Why
has no Western politician reacted to the strikes against the civilian
populations of Donbass for eight years?</p>
<p>After all, what makes the conflict in Ukraine more blameworthy than
the war in Iraq, Afghanistan or Libya? What sanctions have we adopted
against those who have deliberately lied before the international
community to wage unjust, unjustified, unjustifiable and murderous
wars? Did we try to “make suffer” the American people who had lied to us
(because it’s a democracy!) before the war in Iraq? Have we even
adopted a single sanction against the countries, companies or
politicians who are fueling the conflict in Yemen, considered the ” <a href="https://www.un.org/press/fr/2018/cs13586.doc.htm">worst humanitarian disaster in the world </a> “? Have
we sanctioned the countries of the European Union who practice the most
abject torture on their territory for the benefit of the United States?</p>
<p>To ask the question is to answer it… and the answer is not glorious.</p>
<div><p>Jacques Baud is a former Colonel of the General Staff, former
member of Swiss strategic intelligence, specialist in Eastern European
countries. He was trained in the American and British intelligence
services. He was the head of doctrine for United Nations peace
operations. A United Nations expert for the rule of law and security
institutions, he designed and led the first multidimensional United
Nations intelligence service in Sudan. He worked for the African Union
and was responsible for the fight against the proliferation of small
arms at NATO for 5 years. He was engaged in talks with top Russian
military and intelligence officials right after the fall of the
USSR. Within NATO, he followed the Ukrainian crisis of 2014, then
participated in programs of assistance to Ukraine. He is the author of
several books on intelligence, war and terrorism, and in particular Le
Détournement published by SIGEST, Govern by fake news, The Navalny
affair, and Poutine, master of the game? published by Max Milo.</p>
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