[News] Welcome to the Kurdish Spring

Fri Jul 27 14:27:33 EDT 2012

**Welcome to the Kurdish Spring**
By Pepe Escobar

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/NG28Ak02.html

Turkish foreign policy, codified by Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu, 
used to be known in shorthand as "zero problems with our neighbors". 
When Turkey started calling for regime change in Syria, it turned into 
"a major problem with one of our neighbors" (even tough Davutoglu 
himself admitted on the record the policy change failed).

Now, in yet another twist, it's becoming "all sorts of problems with two 
of our neighbors". Enter - inevitably - Ankara's ultimate taboo; the 
Kurdish question.

Ankara used to routinely chase and bomb Kurdish PKK guerrillas crossing 
from Anatolia to Iraqi Kurdistan. Now it may be positioning itself to do 
the same in Syrian Kurdistan.

Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan came out all guns blazing on 
Turkish TV; "We will not allow a terrorist group to establish camps in 
northern Syria and threaten Turkey."

He was referring to the Syrian Kurdish Democratic Party (PYD) - 
affiliated with the PKK; after a quiet deal with the Assad regime in 
Damascus, the PYD is now in control of key areas in northeast Syria.

So Ankara may provide logistics to tens of thousands of Syria's NATO 
"rebels" - which include plenty of hardcore Sunni Arab "insurgents" 
formerly known as terrorists; but as long as Syrian Kurds - which are 
part of the Syrian opposition - demonstrate some independence, they 
immediately revert to being considered "terrorists".

It's all conditioned by Ankara's immediate nightmare; the prospect of a 
semiautonomous Syrian Kurdistan very closely linked to Iraqi Kurdistan.

*Follow the oil *
This Swedish report [1] contains arguably the best breakdown of the 
hyper-fragmented Syrian opposition. The "rebels" are dominated by the 
exile-heavy Syrian National Council (SNC) and its Hydra-style militias, 
the over 100 gangs that compose the Not Exactly Free Syrian Army (FSA).

But there are many other parties as well, including socialists; 
Marxists; secular nationalists; Islamists; the Kurdish National Council 
(KNC) - an 11-party coalition very close to the Iraqi Kurdistan 
government; and the PYD.

The KNC and the PYD may bicker about everything else, but basically 
agree on the essential; the civil war in Syria shall not penetrate Syria 
Kurdistan; after all, when it comes to the nitty gritty, they are 
neither pro-Assad nor pro-opposition; they favor Kurdish interests. The 
agreement was sealed under the auspices of their cousins - the Iraqi 
Kurds. And it explains why they are now in full control of a de facto 
Kurdish enclave in northeast Syria.
As much as Turkish paranoia may apply, it's a long and winding road from 
a semi-autonomous area to an independent Kurdistan agglutinating Kurds 
in both Syria and Iraq - not to mention, in the long run, Turkish Kurds. 
Yet half of a possible, future, independent Kurdistan would indeed be 
Turkish. Ankara's nightmare in progress is that the closer Iraqi and 
Syrian Kurdistan get, the merrier the agitation among Turkish Kurds in 
Anatolia.

Priorities though divert; the bottom line for Iraqi Kurds is 
independence from Baghdad. After all; they have loads of oil. On the 
other hand Syria Kurdistan has none. This means, crucially, no role in 
regional Pipelineistan.

This concerns above all two strategic oil and gas pipelines from Kirkuk 
to Ceyhan - a direct deal between Ankara and the Iraqi Kurds which in 
theory bypasses Baghdad.

Well, not really. As Baghdad has made it clear, there's no way these 
pipelines will be operative without the central government having its 
sizeable cut; after all it pays for 95% of the budget of Iraqi Kurdistan.

*Show me your terrorist ID*
Iraqi Kurdistan President Massoud Barzani told al-Jazeera [2] that yes - 
they are training Syrian Kurds who defected from the Syrian Army to 
defend their de facto enclave. It was Barzani who supervised the key 
deal sealed in Irbil on July 11 that led to Assad forces retreating from 
Syrian Kurdistan.

What is being described as "liberated cities" [3] is now being "jointly 
ruled" by the PYD and the KNC. They have formed what is known as a 
Supreme Kurdish Body.

One can never underestimate the Kurdish capacity to shoot themselves in 
the foot (and elsewhere). Yet one can also imagine all this 
cross-country Kurdish frenzy terrifying quite a few souls in Istanbul 
and Ankara. This [4] columnist for the daily newspaper Hurriyet got it 
right; "Arabs are fighting, Kurds are winning." The Kurdish Spring is at 
hand. And it is already hitting Turkey's borders.

Davutoglu must have seen it coming; when a formerly "zero problem" 
foreign policy evolves into housing the weaponized opposition to a 
neighboring government, you're bound to be in trouble.

Especially when you start itching to kill "terrorists" living in your 
neighbor's territory - even though your Western allies may view them as 
"freedom fighters". Meanwhile you actively support Salafi-jihadis - 
"insurgents" formerly known as terrorists - back and forth across your 
borders.

An increasingly erratic Erdogan has invoked a "natural right" [5] to 
fight "terrorists". But first they must produce an ID; if they are Sunni 
Arab, they get away with it. If they are Kurdish, they eat lead.

/*Notes:*/ 1. See here 
<http://www.palmecenter.se/Documents/Kunskapsbanken/Rapporter/Syrian%20opposition%20paper%20-%20PALME%20FINAL.pdf> 

2. Iraqi Kurds train their Syrian brethren 
<http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/features/2012/07/201272393251722498.html>, 
Al-Jazeera, 23 Jul 2012
3. See Iraq's Kurdistan Peshmerga forces will be called into Syria when 
needed, PYD Leader says 
<http://www.ekurd.net/mismas/articles/misc2012/7/syriakurd557.htm>, Kurd 
Net, July 26, 2012
4. The Arab Spring has transformed into the Kurdish Spring 
<http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/the-arab-spring-has-transformed-into-the-kurdish-spring-.aspx?pageID=238&nID=26443&NewsCatID=401>, 
Hurriyet Daily News, July 27 2012
5. PM declares Syria intervention a 'natural right' 
<http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/pm-declares-syria-intervention-a-natural-right.aspx?pageID=238&nID=26391&NewsCatID=338>, 
Hurriyet Daily News, July 27 2012

/*Pepe Escobar* is the author of/ Globalistan: How the Globalized World 
is Dissolving into Liquid War 
<http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0978813820/simpleproduction/ref=nosim> 
(Nimble Books, 2007) and Red Zone Blues: a snapshot of Baghdad during 
the surge 
<http://www.amazon.com/Red-Zone-Blues-snapshot-Baghdad/dp/0978813898>. 
His most recent book is Obama does Globalistan 
<http://www.amazon.com/Obama-Does-Globalistan-Pepe-Escobar/dp/1934840831/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1233698286&sr=8-1> 
(Nimble Books, 2009).

/He may be reached at/ pepeasia at yahoo.com
-- 
Freedom Archives 522 Valencia Street San Francisco, CA 94110 415 
863-9977 www.freedomarchives.org
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://freedomarchives.org/pipermail/news_freedomarchives.org/attachments/20120727/41d7f1a3/attachment.htm>
-------------- next part --------------
A non-text attachment was scrubbed...
Name: lg.php
Type: image/gif
Size: 43 bytes
Desc: not available
URL: <http://freedomarchives.org/pipermail/news_freedomarchives.org/attachments/20120727/41d7f1a3/attachment.gif>