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<b><big><font size="3"><big><strong>Welcome to the Kurdish Spring</strong></big></font></big></b><br>
By Pepe Escobar <br>
<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/NG28Ak02.html">http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/NG28Ak02.html</a><br>
<br>
Turkish foreign policy, codified by Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu,
used to be known in shorthand as "zero problems with our neighbors".
When Turkey started calling for regime change in Syria, it turned into
"a major problem with one of our neighbors" (even tough Davutoglu
himself admitted on the record the policy change failed). <br>
<br>
Now, in yet another twist, it's becoming "all sorts of problems with
two of our neighbors". Enter - inevitably - Ankara's ultimate taboo;
the Kurdish question. <br>
<br>
Ankara used to routinely chase and bomb Kurdish PKK guerrillas crossing
from Anatolia to Iraqi Kurdistan. Now it may be<img
src="cid:part1.08030707.02040306@freedomarchives.org" alt=""
style="width: 0px; height: 0px;" width="0" height="0"> positioning
itself to do the same in Syrian Kurdistan. <br>
<br>
Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan came out all guns blazing
on Turkish TV; "We will not allow a terrorist group to establish camps
in northern Syria and threaten Turkey." <br>
<br>
He was referring to the Syrian Kurdish Democratic Party (PYD) -
affiliated with the PKK; after a quiet deal with the Assad regime in
Damascus, the PYD is now in control of key areas in northeast Syria. <br>
<br>
So Ankara may provide logistics to tens of thousands of Syria's NATO
"rebels" - which include plenty of hardcore Sunni Arab "insurgents"
formerly known as terrorists; but as long as Syrian Kurds - which are
part of the Syrian opposition - demonstrate some independence, they
immediately revert to being considered "terrorists". <br>
<br>
It's all conditioned by Ankara's immediate nightmare; the prospect of a
semiautonomous Syrian Kurdistan very closely linked to Iraqi Kurdistan.
<br>
<br>
<b>Follow the oil </b><br>
This Swedish report [1] contains arguably the best breakdown of the
hyper-fragmented Syrian opposition. The "rebels" are dominated by the
exile-heavy Syrian National Council (SNC) and its Hydra-style militias,
the over 100 gangs that compose the Not Exactly Free Syrian Army (FSA).
<br>
<br>
But there are many other parties as well, including socialists;
Marxists; secular nationalists; Islamists; the Kurdish National Council
(KNC) - an 11-party coalition very close to the Iraqi Kurdistan
government; and the PYD. <br>
<br>
The KNC and the PYD may bicker about everything else, but basically
agree on the essential; the civil war in Syria shall not penetrate
Syria Kurdistan; after all, when it comes to the nitty gritty, they are
neither pro-Assad nor pro-opposition; they favor Kurdish interests. The
agreement was sealed under the auspices of their cousins - the Iraqi
Kurds. And it explains why they are now in full control of a de facto
Kurdish enclave in northeast Syria. <br>
As much as Turkish paranoia may apply, it's a long and winding road
from a semi-autonomous area to an independent Kurdistan agglutinating
Kurds in both Syria and Iraq - not to mention, in the long run, Turkish
Kurds. Yet half of a possible, future, independent Kurdistan would
indeed be Turkish. Ankara's nightmare in progress is that the closer
Iraqi and Syrian Kurdistan get, the merrier the agitation among Turkish
Kurds in Anatolia. <br>
<br>
Priorities though divert; the bottom line for Iraqi Kurds is
independence from Baghdad. After all; they have loads of oil. On the
other hand Syria Kurdistan has none. This means, crucially, no role in
regional Pipelineistan. <br>
<br>
This concerns above all two strategic oil and gas pipelines from Kirkuk
to Ceyhan - a direct deal between Ankara and the Iraqi Kurds which in
theory bypasses Baghdad. <br>
<br>
Well, not really. As Baghdad has made it clear, there's no way these
pipelines will be operative without the central government having its
sizeable cut; after all it pays for 95% of the budget of Iraqi
Kurdistan. <br>
<br>
<b>Show me your terrorist ID</b><br>
Iraqi Kurdistan President Massoud Barzani told al-Jazeera [2] that yes
- they are training Syrian Kurds who defected from the Syrian Army to
defend their de facto enclave. It was Barzani who supervised the key
deal sealed in Irbil on July 11 that led to Assad forces retreating
from Syrian Kurdistan. <br>
<br>
What is being described as "liberated cities" [3] is now being "jointly
ruled" by the PYD and the KNC. They have formed what is known as a
Supreme Kurdish Body. <br>
<br>
One can never underestimate the Kurdish capacity to shoot themselves in
the foot (and elsewhere). Yet one can also imagine all this
cross-country Kurdish frenzy terrifying quite a few souls in Istanbul
and Ankara. This [4] columnist for the daily newspaper Hurriyet got it
right; "Arabs are fighting, Kurds are winning." The Kurdish Spring is
at hand. And it is already hitting Turkey's borders. <br>
<br>
Davutoglu must have seen it coming; when a formerly "zero problem"
foreign policy evolves into housing the weaponized opposition to a
neighboring government, you're bound to be in trouble. <br>
<br>
Especially when you start itching to kill "terrorists" living in your
neighbor's territory - even though your Western allies may view them as
"freedom fighters". Meanwhile you actively support Salafi-jihadis -
"insurgents" formerly known as terrorists - back and forth across your
borders. <br>
<br>
An increasingly erratic Erdogan has invoked a "natural right" [5] to
fight "terrorists". But first they must produce an ID; if they are
Sunni Arab, they get away with it. If they are Kurdish, they eat lead. <br>
<br>
<i><b>Notes:</b></i> 1. See <a
href="http://www.palmecenter.se/Documents/Kunskapsbanken/Rapporter/Syrian%20opposition%20paper%20-%20PALME%20FINAL.pdf">here</a>
<br>
2. <a
href="http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/features/2012/07/201272393251722498.html">Iraqi
Kurds train their Syrian brethren</a>, Al-Jazeera, 23 Jul 2012<br>
3. See <a
href="http://www.ekurd.net/mismas/articles/misc2012/7/syriakurd557.htm">Iraq's
Kurdistan Peshmerga forces will be called into Syria when needed, PYD
Leader says</a>, Kurd Net, July 26, 2012<br>
4. <a
href="http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/the-arab-spring-has-transformed-into-the-kurdish-spring-.aspx?pageID=238&nID=26443&NewsCatID=401">The
Arab Spring has transformed into the Kurdish Spring</a>, Hurriyet Daily
News, July 27 2012 <br>
5. <a
href="http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/pm-declares-syria-intervention-a-natural-right.aspx?pageID=238&nID=26391&NewsCatID=338">PM
declares Syria intervention a ‘natural right’</a>, Hurriyet Daily News,
July 27 2012 <br>
<br>
<br>
<i><b>Pepe Escobar</b> is the author of</i> <a
href="http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0978813820/simpleproduction/ref=nosim">Globalistan:
How the Globalized World is Dissolving into Liquid War</a> (Nimble
Books, 2007) and <a
href="http://www.amazon.com/Red-Zone-Blues-snapshot-Baghdad/dp/0978813898">Red
Zone Blues: a snapshot of Baghdad during the surge</a>. His most recent
book is <a
href="http://www.amazon.com/Obama-Does-Globalistan-Pepe-Escobar/dp/1934840831/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1233698286&sr=8-1">Obama
does Globalistan</a> (Nimble Books, 2009). <br>
<br>
<i>He may be reached at</i> <a class="moz-txt-link-abbreviated" href="mailto:pepeasia@yahoo.com">pepeasia@yahoo.com</a>
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