[News] Venezuelan Elections - A Serious Warning to the Revolution
Anti-Imperialist News
news at freedomarchives.org
Thu Sep 30 10:49:09 EDT 2010
Venezuelan Elections
A Serious Warning to the Revolution
By <http://www.zcommunications.org/zspace/alanwoods>Alan Woods
http://www.vheadline.com/readnews.asp?id=97053
Thursday, September 30, 2010
Marxist editor Alan Woods writes: The result of
the elections to Venezuela's National Assembly
elections on Sunday was greeted by jubilation in
the bourgeois media internationally. It is too
early to make a definitive judgment about the
results, and it has not been confirmed the right
wing has overtaken the PSUV in votes. However,
the deafening chorus of triumph in the international media is premature.
The ferocious international campaign saying that
Chavez has lost is a reflection, not of the real
state of affairs, but of the desire of the
bourgeois both in Venezuela and internationally
to finish off the Venezuelan Revolution once and
for all. But between desires and their fulfilment
there is always a wide gap, as everyone knows.
Whether the opposition's counterrevolutionary
aspirations are fulfilled or not does not depend
on the results of an election but on the conduct
of the Revolution and its leadership.
Elections are only a snapshot of the state of
public opinion at a given time. These results can
tell us a lot about the psychological state of
different classes in Venezuela, and they
undoubtedly reveal certain tendencies in society.
They constitute a warning that must be taken very
seriously by all those who have the interests of
the Revolution at heart. But in and of themselves they decide nothing.
The right wing jubilant
The right wing immediately started to crow like a
drunken cockerel. Maria Corina Machado, who was
elected deputy of Miranda state said: "Here it is
very clear, Venezuela said no to Cuban-style
communism, Venezuela said yes to the path of
democratic construction and now we have the
legitimacy of the vote of the citizenry, we are
the representatives of the people."
On Monday, MUD officials claimed victory in the
elections, based mainly on their claim to have
won the majority of the total votes cast on
Sunday. But this was a bluff. The real situation
is more complicated, although there is no doubt
that the Revolution now faces new dangers.
According to the official results of Sunday's
election released by the National Electoral
Council, Chavez' United Socialist Party of
Venezuela (PSUV) so far had won 95 seats, while
the opposition coalition Democratic Unity
Roundtable (MUD) won 62 seats. The Fatherland for
All (PPT) party, a former Chavez ally that split
with the PSUV, won two seats. Three seats went to
indigenous people's representatives unaligned
with either the PSUV or the MUD. The CNE has not
yet announced the results in the contests for three other seats.
Of course, it is possible to read these results
in different ways. Deputy-elect Roy Chaderton
pointed out on Monday that the opponents of
President Hugo Chavez won approximately 20 fewer
seats than they held during the 2000-2005
legislative term, while the pro-Chavez camp grew by several seats.
Socialist candidates won in Aragua, Barinas,
Bolivar, Carabobo, Cojedes, Delta Amacuro,
Distrito Capital, Falcon, Guarico, Merida,
Monagas, Lara, Portuguesa, Trujillo, Vargas
Yaracuy and there was a draw in Miranda and
Sucre. But the right wing won in important states such as Zulia and Tachira.
Chaderton pointed out that the Opposition has
lost ground compared to the 2000 elections. He
said the opposition was setting up a "media
farce" by comparing Sunday's results only to
those of the 2005 elections, which the opposition
boycotted, and thus reporting that the opposition
drastically increased its presence in the National Assembly Elections.
That is correct, and it is also true that the
data for the total number of votes is not a
straightforward issue, as people can vote for a
candidate in their constituency as well as voting
for a party list and some MPs are elected through
the first system, some through the second.
Nevertheless, it is clear that the vote for the
opposition is growing, while that of the PSUV is declining even more sharply.
To underestimate the strength of the enemy and
overestimate one's own strength is a very
dangerous mistake in politics as in war. The
Revolution needs not sugary illusions but the
truth. From the latest results it seems that the
PSUV got 5,399,300 votes, while the right wing parties won 5,312,283votes.
False optimism
Officially, the PSUV won the majority of the
seats in 16 of Venezuela's 23 states. This
included sweeping victories in the rural states
of Apure, Barinas, Guarico, Cojedes, Lara,
Portuguesa, Vargas, and Yaracuy; and strong
victories in the major industrial states of
Bolivar and Carabobo. The PSUV also won seven
seats in the Capital District, compared to three for the MUD.
In Miranda state, where the capital city is
located, the PSUV and the MUD each won three
seats, with the MUD defeating the PSUV by just
741 votes out of a total of 968,947. The two were
also tied with three seats each in Sucre state.
In the sparsely populated Amazonas state, the
PSUV won one seat, while the PPT won 2 seats and
the MUD none. However, the MUD swept the border
states of Tachira and Zulia, as well as Anzoategui and Nueva Esparta.
The PSUV leaders try to present the result as a
victory. Vice President Elías Jaua said: "The
revolution can count on a comfortable majority in
the National Assembly... Few governments on our
continent can count on such a comfortable
majority of just one party. [
] The opposition
does not have any possibility, with this number
of deputies, of reversing the legislative
processes that have been completed or activating
destabilizing mechanisms such as revoking public
powers or impeaching the president."
PSUV Campaign Chief Aristobulo Isturiz expressed
disappointment that the goal of 110 seats was not
reached. However, he said this should not
distract from the "truly decisive victory" won by
the PSUV, which "reaffirms us as the primary
political force in our country. We achieved our
objective in the sense of being able to guarantee
the defence of President Hugo Chavez and the
policies of the revolutionary government, and
having won sufficient forces to propel structural
changes in this era of the construction of socialism."
But the facts do not support this optimistic
interpretation. If we compare the results with
the votes in the 2009 regional elections, the
difference is immediately evident. The PSUV then
got 6,310,482 votes, compared to 5,190,839 for
the right-wing parties. The warning light is
flashing red and it would be the height of irresponsibility to deny it.
During the 2000-2005 legislative term pro-Chavez
parties held between 83 and 92 seats at any given
time, while opposition parties held between 73
and 82 seats, out of a total of 165. But this was
a period when the masses were aroused. The defeat
of the counterrevolutionary coup in 2002, and the
subsequent defeat of the oil sabotage and the
recall referendum were accomplished by the
revolutionary people -- that is to say, the workers and peasants.
Since that time, it is clear that the
revolutionary enthusiasm has ebbed. There is
discontent and disillusionment among the masses.
This finds its reflection in widespread
abstention in the elections. The figures speak
for themselves. While the right wing vote went up
by a mere 2.28%, the left vote fell sharply by
14.44%. This means that the opposition did not
win these elections; the chavistas lost it.
The importance of leadership
What is the main feature of the present
situation? The main thing to note is that, at
least in the electoral terms, the distance
between the forces of the revolution and the
counterrevolution has been reduced. There is a
sharp increase in the polarization between the classes.
The first, and possibly the most important,
effect is the psychological effect on the two
contending camps. Napoleon pointed out that in
war morale is a vital factor. The
counterrevolutionaries will be encouraged and
emboldened to go onto the offensive. By contrast,
many Bolivarian activists will feel discouraged
and unhappy. This is a not unimportant fact!
An army that has suffered a defeat needs to have
confidence in its leaders, the soldiers must feel
that the generals know what they are doing and
are able to recover from the defeat and go
forward. In times of retreat in a war the
importance of good generals is a hundred times
greater than in an advance. With good generals
the army can stage an organised withdrawal,
keeping the army together and in good order, with
a minimum of losses. But bad generals will turn a defeat into a rout.
The role of the reformist bureaucracy in this
situation is particularly negative. They will
draw all the wrong conclusions. They will be
saying: "Look, this proves that we do not have
the support of the people. We must make
concessions to the opposition, strike deals,
retreat." This is the worst possible advice. For
every step back the Revolution takes, the opposition will demand ten more.
The reformists will argue that the elections mean
that we have to adopt a policy of class
reconciliation. But that is the very policy that
has undermined the Revolution and alienated is
proletarian base. This was shown graphically by
the result in the State of Anzoategui, where the
big margin of victory achieved by the
counterrevolution reflected discontent with the
behaviour of the right-wing chavista bureaucracy.
The only way forward for the PSUV is to rely on
its real base: the revolutionary workers and
peasants. They are looking to the PSUV to carry
out its promises. The PSUV must break decisively
with the bourgeoisie and its agents, the
reformist bureaucracy that represent a bourgeois
Fifth Column within the Revolution.
The threat of counterrevolution
Despite the electoral setback, the Revolution
still has important reserves of support. Over the
past year polls have consistently showed that the
PSUV still has the support of around 35% of the
population, while support for the opposition
parties is much weaker. However, a large
population is undecided, reflecting a growing
disenchantment with the progress of the
Revolution. In order to secure its future the
Revolution must find a way to motivate and
enthuse these layers. This can only be done through decisive action.
The approval rating for Chavez' presidency
remains high at around 55% or 60%. This reflects
the fact that the Revolution still possesses huge
reserves of support in the population. The
problem is that Chavez is surrounded on all sides
with a thick layer of bureaucrats and careerists
who do not see the Revolution as a means of
changing society but only as a vehicle for personal advancement and enrichment.
The PSUV still has a majority of the National
Assembly, and will be able to control the passage
of ordinary laws and most other functions of the
legislative body. However, the PSUV failed to win
a two-thirds majority, which means the opposition
will have the power to block organic laws,
enabling laws that give decree power to the
president, and some appointments. The right wing,
even though it is a minority in Parliament, has
increased its ability to interfere with the
Venezuelan revolutionary process and place
obstacles to the action of the government of President Chavez.
The Opposition will use its position in the
Assembly to attempt to paralyze the government
and sabotage progressive laws. But their real
goal is to overthrow the Revolution and seize
power. To do this they will use the National
Assembly to mobilize the masses of enraged petty
bourgeois on the streets to create an atmosphere
of chaos and disorder. It is necessary to meet this threat head-on.
Aporrea was correct when, on 09/27/10, it wrote:
"The PSUV wins a simple majority in the NA, but
the bourgeoisie is gaining ground and the threat
is growing." The article correctly says that what
the election result shows is that "the bulk of
the population prefers the anti-capitalist and
socialist path. But, most strikingly, it revealed
an element of vulnerability, since the PSUV and
its allies did not reach the two thirds needed to
have a qualified majority." And it concludes:
"More than ever we need a clean-out and more Revolution!"
The election results show an advance of the
counterrevolutionary forces, but they are still
very far from achieving their real objective. In
order to succeed, the opposition will have to
confront the President and the revolution. The
main clash will take place when the presidential
term of office comes to an end in 2012. It is
possible that a showdown can come even earlier if
the opposition resorts to a recall referendum.
The only way to prevent this is to speed up the
revolutionary process, carrying out the
expropriation of the land, the banks and the major industries.
"But we do not have a sufficient majority in the
National Assembly to do this!" This argument of
the reformists is false from start to finish.
Everyone knows that the fundamental problems of
society are not resolved by parliaments, laws and
constitutions but by the class struggle.
In electoral terms, the petty bourgeois masses
may seem a formidable force. But when they are
confronted on the streets by the power of the
workers, peasants and revolutionary youth, their
apparent strength will evaporate like a drop of
water on a hot stove. If the Revolution is worthy
of its name, it will refuse to dance the
parliamentary minuet with the counterrevolution
but instead will mobilise its forces where it
really matters: not in debating chambers but on
the streets, in the factories and the army barracks.
In a press conference on Monday night, Chavez
said the next phase of his government will
include "the acceleration of programs of the new
historical, political, social, and technological
project." That goes in the right direction but it
must be translated into action. The President
concluded: "We must continue strengthening the revolution!"
That, and not the cowardly recipes of reformism, is the only way forward.
Before us lie only two possibilities: either the
greatest of victories or the most terrible of
defeats. In order to secure victory we must base
ourselves on the famous slogan of the great
French revolutionary Danton: "De l'audace! De
l'audace! Et encore de l'audace!" - "Boldness!
Boldness and still more boldness!"
Alan Woods
Freedom Archives
522 Valencia Street
San Francisco, CA 94110
415 863-9977
www.Freedomarchives.org
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://freedomarchives.org/pipermail/news_freedomarchives.org/attachments/20100930/ac311354/attachment.htm>
More information about the News
mailing list