[News] Poll: Wide Majority of Hondurans Oppose Coup
Anti-Imperialist News
news at freedomarchives.org
Wed Oct 7 15:13:34 EDT 2009
Poll: Wide Majority of Hondurans Oppose Coup dEtat, Want Zelaya Back
Posted by
<http://narcosphere.narconews.com/users/al-giordano>Al
Giordano - October 6, 2009 at 9:19 pm
http://narcosphere.narconews.com/thefield/3511/poll-wide-majority-hondurans-oppose-coup-d%E2%80%99etat-want-zelaya-back
By Al Giordano
Finally, hard and reliable data - by a legally
certified Honduran polling company provides a
clear measurement of how the Honduran people view
the June 28 coup d'etat, its president" Roberto
Micheletti, President Manuel Zelaya and the national civil resistance.
The polling data which we make public for the
first time here - shows that Hondurans widely (by
a margin of 3 to 1) oppose the coup, oppose coup
president Micheletti by a margin of 3 to 1 and
favor the reinstatement of their elected
President Manuel Zelaya by a clear majority of 3 to 2.
On February 9 of this year, the Gaceta Oficial of
the government of Honduras published the Supreme
Electoral Tribunals certification of a
Tegucigalpa polling company, COIMER & OP
(Consultants in Investigation of Markets and
Public Opinion), as a legally authorized pollster
for the November 29 elections. The Tribunal
inspected the companys polling methodology, its
offices, its staff, gave it the stamp of approval
and the green light to survey the Honduran electorate.
The Field has obtained the full results of a
recent COIMER & OP survey of 1,470 Honduran
citizens over 18 years of age at randomly
selected homes (no more than one respondent
allowed from each home) proportional to national,
state and municipal population and matching other
demographic measurements (gender, age, etcetera)
in the country, from August 23 to 29 of this
year. The poll has a margin of error of four percent.
This is the first survey to be made public since
a July Gallup poll showed a plurality of
Hondurans opposed the coup detat and Roberto
Micheletti, and a plurality wanted Zelaya back as
president. What is interesting from this survey
is that opposition to Micheletti and the coup
increased between early July and late August from
mere pluralities to a punishing majority:
evidence that the nonviolent civil resistance
movement has worked effectively to strip
legitimacy from the coup regime. As of late
August, only 17.4 percent of Hondurans favor the
coup detat, only 22.2 percent believe Micheletti
should remain as president, and only 33 percent
oppose the restitution of President Manuel Zelaya.
And those were the numbers before Michelettis
very unpopular state of siege decree of
September 29 began to divide his supporters even further.
For Spanish-language readers, political reporters
and analysts, The Field and Narco News today make
available
<http://www.narconews.com/docs/encuesta_honduras_agosto_2009.pdf>the
full survey and all its cross-tabulations for your analysis.
For English speakers, we will translate the
survey questions and the results here, adding some analysis:
Are you in favor of the June 28 coup detat
against President Manuel Zelaya Rosales?
In favor of coup: 17.4 percent
Opposed to coup: 52.7 percent
No response: 29.9 percent
Strip away the no response and the percentages
among those with an opinion reveal a stunning 75
percent percent against the coup with only 25
percent in favor: an anti-coup margin of 3 to 1.
Meanwhile, coup president Micheletti remains a
very unpopular man among Hondurans:
Should Micheletti stay in power or leave the current government?
Micheletti should stay: 22.2 percent
Micheletti should leave: 60.1 percent
No response: 17.7 percent
Among those who express an opinion, Michelettis
opponents outnumber his supporters by a margin of nearly 3 to 1.
A clear majority supports Manuel Zelayas return
to the presidency 60 percent of those who express an opinion:
Do you support the return of Manuel Zelaya
Rosales to the Presidency of the Republic?
Support Zelayas return: 51.6 percent
Oppose Zelayas return: 33 percent
No response: 15.4 percent
Even the National Civil Resistance - maligned
daily in the pro-coup media, portrayed
sensationally as lawless and threatening of the
civil order - enjoys a plurality of support from the Honduran population:
Do you agree or disagree with the marches by the
national resistance throughout the country against the coup detat?
Support the marches: 45.5 percent
Oppose the marches: 41.8 percent
No response: 12.7 percent
By a more than 2 to 1 margin, Hondurans view the
police and military as overly repressive against the national resistance:
Do you think that the Armed Forces and National
Police are engaging in repression or not against the National Resistance?
Yes, there is repression: 54.5 percent
No, there is not repression: 21.8 percent
No response: 23.7 percent
When asked their opinion about that repression,
an overwhelming majority of Hondurans opposes that repression:
Do you agree with the repression or condemn the
repression that the Armed Forces and National
Police have engaged in against the National Resistance?
Against repression: 65.4 percent
For repression: 8 percent
No response: 26.4 percent
Strip away the non respondents, and a whopping 89
percent oppose the repression against the civil
resistance, including many Hondurans that do not
themselves support the resistance marches.
Heres another interesting question and result:
Who promoted and financed the coup detat that
toppled President Manuel Zelaya Rosales? Among
the political, business, military sectors or
foreign capital, which was behind the coup?
All of the above: 23.6 percent
Business sector: 16.8 percent
Political sector: 15 percent
None of the above: 9.5 percent
Military sector: 6.7 percent
International capital: 2.4 percent
No response: 26.8 percent
The COIMER & OP survey also reveals a chilling
fact regarding freedom of the press under the
coup regime: that the two national TV and radio
stations shut down by the coup regime happen to
be the most trusted news sources in the entire
country, out rating all other media outlets:
Which radio news do you prefer to inform you of events in the country?
Radio Globo: 23.4 percent
HRN: 22.4 percent
Radio América: 13.7 percent
Radio Cadena voces: 0.7 percent
Local station: 10.3 percent
No answer: 29.5
Which television news program do you prefer to
inform you about the happenings in the country
regarding the coup detat against President Manuel Zelaya Rosales?
Channel 36 Cholusat: 18 percent
Channel 6: 16.9 percent
TNS: 15.7
Abriendo Brecha: 10.7
Hable como Habla: 7.8
TVC: 7.3
Once Noticias: 3.7
Local and regional channels: 9.5
No response: 11.4
The survey also shows that only 53.9 percent of
Hondurans read daily newspapers, and that only
55.2 percent prefer any newspaper at all to
inform them of happenings in the country:
Which newspaper do you prefer to inform you about
the happenings in the country regarding the coup
detat against President Manuel Zelaya Rosales?
No response: 44.8 percent
La Prensa: 22.6 percent
La Tribuna: 12.2 percent
Tiempo: 9.9 percent
El Heraldo: 9.3 percent
El Libertador: 1.2 percent
Interestingly, prior to June 28, the daily Tiempo
of San Pedro Sula was the fourth most read paper
in the country. Since the coup it has now
surpassed the daily Heraldo and is catching up on
second place La Tribuna both of Tegucigalpa
and Tiempo is in striking distance for second
position. Tiempo is the only newspaper of the
four that has not offered extremely dishonest pro-coup spin.
The results of the next question should indicate
why the Micheletti regime keeps talking so loudly
about the November 29 elections which the rest of
the world has said cannot be recognized as fair
or free under the repressive conditions imposed
by the coup regime. However, a strong majority of
Hondurans still favor those elections:
Should the general elections organized by the
Supreme Electoral Tribunal for November 19 happen
even if the institutional crisis isnt resolved?
Yes, have elections: 66.4 percent
No, dont have them: 23.8 percent
No response: 2.9 percent
The 23.8 percent that oppose holding the
elections before the crisis is resolved is
actually a very high number compared to general
public opinion: Elections are like mom and apple
pie. Only a very highly politically conscious
citizen would make the leap of understanding that
elections are not fair and free under a coup
regime and therefore openly oppose them
happening. I would venture an estimation that
that number of 23.8 percent represents
participants in the Civil Resistance movements,
who have universally argued that the conditions
do not exist to hold free elections given what
the coup regime has done to censor and violently
repress all dissent. That would represent an
unusually strong base from which to continue organizing.
Here are some questions about those elections:
What political party do you belong to or sympathize with?
Liberal: 38.5 percent
National: 28.5
Democratic Unification: 1.4
PINU: 1.1
DC: 0.9
Independent Candidate: 2.9
None: 21.5
No response: 5.0
Will you vote in the General Elections to elect
President, members of Congress and Mayors?
Yes: 53.8 percent
No: 18.8 percent
Maybe: 12.5 percent
Dont know: 9 percent
No response: 3.5 percent
What is your opinion of Independent Candidates?
Good opinion: 51 percent
Bad opinion: 16.2 percent
No response: 32.8 percent
If the elections were held today for President, who would you vote for:
Pepe Lobo (National Party): 28.2 percent
Elvin Santos (Liberal Party): 14.4 percent
Carlos H. Reyes (Independent): 12 percent
César Ham (Democratic Unification): 2.2 percent
Bernard Martinez (PINU): 1.2 percent
Felipe Avila (Christian Democrat): 1 percent
None of the above: 24.7 percent
No response: 16.3 percent
We can see from those combined numbers that while
Zelayas Liberal Party remains the most popular,
its pro-coup nominee Elvin Santos is rejected by
about two-thirds of his own party members. We can
also see very low interest in participation by
voters, with only 53.8 percent saying they will
definitely vote. And should there be a
negotiated solution in time for the resistance
movements to participate in clean elections (a
very big if) Independent candidate Carlos H.
Reyes is very well positioned to supplant the
Liberal Party nominee to become one of the top
two candidates, the most viable alternative to
Lobo, especially if, as has been talked a lot
about, the Democratic Unification Party of
candidate Cesar Ham joins in coalition behind Reyes.
But, of course, such talk is way premature, since
conditions do not at present exist for fair and
free elections, and its not clear there is enough
time in the next 53 days to fix that.
This chart measures the popularity (Excelente y
Buena opinion) against the negative rating
(Mala opinion) along with the middle category
of regular opinion and dont know or no response):
[]
The most popular political figures in the country are:
President Manuel Zelaya: 44.7 percent (to 25.7 percent negative)
And
First Lady Xiomara Castro de Zelaya: 42.6 percent (to 17.9 percent negative)
That they enjoy the highest favorability compared
to any other national figure - after a massive PR
ad campaign all summer long on TV, radio and in
the pro-coup dailies to portray Zelaya as a
national villain - is also an indication of the
pro-coup media's own crisis of credibility with the public.
The least popular political figures in Honduras
are those perceived as coup leaders:
Coup president Roberto Micheletti: 56.5 percent
negative (to just 16.2 percent positive)
Liberal Party candidate Elvin Santos: 45.2
percent negative (to 18.6 percent positive)
Cardinal Oscar Andres Rodriguez: 42.6 percent (to 26.1 percent positive)
General Romeo Vasquez: 40 percent negative (to 19.1 percent positive)
National Party candidate Pepe Lobo: 34.1 percent
negative (to 30.5 percent positive)
Interestingly, Independent and anti-coup
presidential candidate Carlos H. Reyes is more
popular (24.6 percent) than unpopular (14.1
percent) as are anti-coup media voices like Radio
Globos Eduardo Maldonado (31.4 percent positive
to 23.2 percent negative) and Channel 36s Esdras
Amado Lopez (23.5 percent positive to 17.3
percent negative). They are, along with the
Zelayas, the only national public figures to
enjoy a significantly more favorable rating from Hondurans than negative.
The bottom line: A majority of the Honduran
people oppose the coup, oppose Micheletti and a
wide majority oppose the regimes repression
against the national resistance. And a plurality
openly support the civil resistance movement.
So when Republican US Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen
yesterday issued a Twitter communiqué claiming
that nobody wants Zelaya back, she was blowing
smoke out of the wrong air hole. All those - from
the regime, to the oligarch diaspora to Lanny
Davis and the US political consultants they hire,
to the spoiled brat class of some (but not all)
gringo expats in Honduras that repeated
unsupported claims that a majority of Hondurans
favor the coup, or support Micheletti, or oppose
Zelayas return, now end with egg on their faces,
their credibility shot. They just made it up and
thought you would be gullible enough to believe
them. But here weve given you, finally, the hard
numbers, now available in full public view.
Whats more is that these results explain why the
coup regime and its chambers of commerce and
other big business organizations the forces in
the country that can afford to hire pollsters -
have not released any of their own internal
polling data to the public: Because they, too,
know that a majority of Hondurans oppose them,
and they are less popular even than the national
nonviolent civil resistance movement that they treat with such disdain.
Freedom Archives
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San Francisco, CA 94110
415 863-9977
www.Freedomarchives.org
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