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<h1><font size=4><b>Poll: Wide Majority of Hondurans Oppose Coup d’Etat,
Want Zelaya Back</b></font></h1><font size=3>Posted by
<a href="http://narcosphere.narconews.com/users/al-giordano">Al
Giordano</a> - October 6, 2009 at 9:19 pm <br>
</font><font size=1>
<a href="http://narcosphere.narconews.com/thefield/3511/poll-wide-majority-hondurans-oppose-coup-d%E2%80%99etat-want-zelaya-back" eudora="autourl">
http://narcosphere.narconews.com/thefield/3511/poll-wide-majority-hondurans-oppose-coup-d%E2%80%99etat-want-zelaya-back<br>
<br>
</a></font><font size=3>By Al Giordano<br><br>
Finally, hard and reliable data - by a legally certified Honduran polling
company – provides a clear measurement of how the Honduran people view
the June 28 coup d'etat, its “president" Roberto Micheletti,
President Manuel Zelaya and the national civil resistance.<br><br>
The polling data – which we make public for the first time here - shows
that Hondurans widely (by a margin of 3 to 1) oppose the coup, oppose
coup “president” Micheletti by a margin of 3 to 1 and favor the
reinstatement of their elected President Manuel Zelaya by a clear
majority of 3 to 2.<br><br>
On February 9 of this year, the <i>Gaceta Oficial</i> of the government
of Honduras published the Supreme Electoral Tribunal’s certification of a
Tegucigalpa polling company, COIMER & OP (Consultants in
Investigation of Markets and Public Opinion), as a legally authorized
pollster for the November 29 elections. The Tribunal inspected the
company’s polling methodology, its offices, its staff, gave it the stamp
of approval and the green light to survey the Honduran
electorate.<br><br>
The Field has obtained the full results of a recent COIMER & OP
survey of 1,470 Honduran citizens over 18 years of age at randomly
selected homes (no more than one respondent allowed from each home)
proportional to national, state and municipal population and matching
other demographic measurements (gender, age, etcetera) in the country,
from August 23 to 29 of this year. The poll has a margin of error of four
percent.<br><br>
This is the first survey to be made public since a July Gallup poll
showed a plurality of Hondurans opposed the coup d’etat and Roberto
Micheletti, and a plurality wanted Zelaya back as president. What is
interesting from this survey is that opposition to Micheletti and the
coup <i>increased</i> between early July and late August from mere
pluralities to a punishing majority: evidence that the nonviolent civil
resistance movement has worked effectively to strip legitimacy from the
coup regime. As of late August, only 17.4 percent of Hondurans favor the
coup d’etat, only 22.2 percent believe Micheletti should remain as
president, and only 33 percent oppose the restitution of President Manuel
Zelaya.<br><br>
And those were the numbers <i>before</i> Micheletti’s very unpopular
“state of siege” decree of September 29 began to divide his supporters
even further.<br><br>
For Spanish-language readers, political reporters and analysts, The Field
and Narco News today make available
<a href="http://www.narconews.com/docs/encuesta_honduras_agosto_2009.pdf">
the full survey and all its cross-tabulations</a> for your
analysis.<br><br>
For English speakers, we will translate the survey questions and the
results here, adding some analysis:<br><br>
</font>
<dl>
<dd>Are you in favor of the June 28 coup d’etat against President Manuel
Zelaya Rosales?<br><br>
</b>
<dd>In favor of coup: 17.4 percent<br><br>
<dd>Opposed to coup: 52.7 percent<br><br>
<dd>No response: 29.9 percent<br><br>
</dl>Strip away the “no response” and the percentages among those with an
opinion reveal a stunning 75 percent percent against the coup with only
25 percent in favor: an anti-coup margin of 3 to 1.<br><br>
Meanwhile, coup “president” Micheletti remains a very unpopular man among
Hondurans:<br><br>
<dl>
<dd>Should Micheletti stay in power or leave the current
government?<br><br>
</b>
<dd>Micheletti should stay: 22.2 percent<br><br>
<dd>Micheletti should leave: 60.1 percent<br><br>
<dd>No response: 17.7 percent<br><br>
</dl>Among those who express an opinion, Micheletti’s opponents outnumber
his supporters by a margin of nearly 3 to 1.<br><br>
A clear majority supports Manuel Zelaya’s return to the presidency – 60
percent of those who express an opinion:<br><br>
<dl>
<dd>Do you support the return of Manuel Zelaya Rosales to the Presidency
of the Republic?<br><br>
</b>
<dd>Support Zelaya’s return: 51.6 percent<br><br>
<dd>Oppose Zelaya’s return: 33 percent<br><br>
<dd>No response: 15.4 percent<br><br>
</dl>Even the National Civil Resistance - maligned daily in the pro-coup
media, portrayed sensationally as lawless and threatening of the civil
order - enjoys a plurality of support from the Honduran
population:<br><br>
<dl>
<dd>Do you agree or disagree with the marches by the national resistance
throughout the country against the coup d’etat?<br><br>
</b>
<dd>Support the marches: 45.5 percent<br><br>
<dd>Oppose the marches: 41.8 percent<br><br>
<dd>No response: 12.7 percent<br><br>
</dl>By a more than 2 to 1 margin, Hondurans view the police and military
as overly repressive against the national resistance:<br><br>
<dl>
<dd>Do you think that the Armed Forces and National Police are engaging
in repression or not against the National Resistance?<br><br>
</b>
<dd>Yes, there is repression: 54.5 percent<br><br>
<dd>No, there is not repression: 21.8 percent<br><br>
<dd>No response: 23.7 percent<br><br>
</dl>When asked their opinion about that repression, an overwhelming
majority of Hondurans opposes that repression:<br><br>
<dl>
<dd>Do you agree with the repression or condemn the repression that the
Armed Forces and National Police have engaged in against the National
Resistance?<br><br>
</b>
<dd>Against repression: 65.4 percent<br><br>
<dd>For repression: 8 percent<br><br>
<dd>No response: 26.4 percent<br><br>
</dl>Strip away the non respondents, and a whopping 89 percent oppose the
repression against the civil resistance, including many Hondurans that do
not themselves support the resistance marches.<br><br>
Here’s another interesting question and result:<br><br>
<dl>
<dd>Who promoted and financed the coup d’etat that toppled President
Manuel Zelaya Rosales? Among the political, business, military sectors or
foreign capital, which was behind the coup?<br><br>
</b>
<dd>All of the above: 23.6 percent<br><br>
<dd>Business sector: 16.8 percent<br><br>
<dd>Political sector: 15 percent<br><br>
<dd>None of the above: 9.5 percent<br><br>
<dd>Military sector: 6.7 percent<br><br>
<dd>International capital: 2.4 percent<br><br>
<dd>No response: 26.8 percent<br><br>
</dl>The COIMER & OP survey also reveals a chilling fact regarding
freedom of the press under the coup regime: that the two national TV and
radio stations shut down by the coup regime happen to be the most trusted
news sources in the entire country</i>, out rating all other media
outlets:<br><br>
<dl>
<dd>Which radio news do you prefer to inform you of events in the
country?<br><br>
</b>
<dd>Radio Globo: 23.4 percent<br><br>
<dd>HRN: 22.4 percent<br><br>
<dd>Radio América: 13.7 percent<br><br>
<dd>Radio Cadena voces: 0.7 percent<br><br>
<dd>Local station: 10.3 percent<br><br>
<dd>No answer: 29.5<br><br>
<dd> <br><br>
<dd>Which television news program do you prefer to inform you about the
happenings in the country regarding the coup d’etat against President
Manuel Zelaya Rosales?<br><br>
</b>
<dd>Channel 36 Cholusat: 18 percent<br><br>
<dd>Channel 6: 16.9 percent<br><br>
<dd>TNS: 15.7<br><br>
<dd>Abriendo Brecha: 10.7<br><br>
<dd>Hable como Habla: 7.8<br><br>
<dd>TVC: 7.3<br><br>
<dd>Once Noticias: 3.7<br><br>
<dd>Local and regional channels: 9.5<br><br>
<dd>No response: 11.4<br><br>
</dl>The survey also shows that only 53.9 percent of Hondurans read daily
newspapers, and that only 55.2 percent prefer any newspaper at all to
inform them of happenings in the country:<br><br>
<dl>
<dd>Which newspaper do you prefer to inform you about the happenings in
the country regarding the coup d’etat against President Manuel Zelaya
Rosales?<br><br>
</b>
<dd>No response: 44.8 percent<br><br>
<dd>La Prensa: 22.6 percent<br><br>
<dd>La Tribuna: 12.2 percent<br><br>
<dd>Tiempo: 9.9 percent<br><br>
<dd>El Heraldo: 9.3 percent<br><br>
<dd>El Libertador: 1.2 percent<br><br>
</dl>Interestingly, prior to June 28, the daily Tiempo of San Pedro Sula
was the fourth most read paper in the country. Since the coup it has now
surpassed the daily Heraldo and is catching up on second place La Tribuna
– both of Tegucigalpa – and Tiempo is in striking distance for second
position. Tiempo is the only newspaper of the four that has not offered
extremely dishonest pro-coup spin.<br><br>
The results of the next question should indicate why the Micheletti
regime keeps talking so loudly about the November 29 elections which the
rest of the world has said cannot be recognized as fair or free under the
repressive conditions imposed by the coup regime. However, a strong
majority of Hondurans still favor those elections:<br><br>
<dl>
<dd>Should the general elections organized by the Supreme Electoral
Tribunal for November 19 happen even if the institutional crisis isn’t
resolved?<br><br>
</b>
<dd>Yes, have elections: 66.4 percent<br><br>
<dd>No, don’t have them: 23.8 percent<br><br>
<dd>No response: 2.9 percent<br><br>
</dl>The 23.8 percent that oppose holding the elections before the crisis
is resolved is actually a very high number compared to general public
opinion: Elections are like mom and apple pie. Only a very highly
politically conscious citizen would make the leap of understanding that
elections are not fair and free under a coup regime and therefore openly
oppose them happening. I would venture an estimation that that number of
23.8 percent represents participants</i> in the Civil Resistance
movements, who have universally argued that the conditions do not exist
to hold free elections given what the coup regime has done to censor and
violently repress all dissent. That would represent an unusually strong
base from which to continue organizing.<br><br>
Here are some questions about those elections:<br><br>
<dl>
<dd>What political party do you belong to or sympathize with?<br><br>
</b>
<dd>Liberal: 38.5 percent<br><br>
<dd>National: 28.5<br><br>
<dd>Democratic Unification: 1.4<br><br>
<dd>PINU: 1.1<br><br>
<dd>DC: 0.9<br><br>
<dd>Independent Candidate: 2.9<br><br>
<dd>None: 21.5<br><br>
<dd>No response: 5.0<br><br>
<dd> <br><br>
<dd>Will you vote in the General Elections to elect President, members of
Congress and Mayors</b>?<br><br>
<dd>Yes: 53.8 percent<br><br>
<dd>No: 18.8 percent<br><br>
<dd>Maybe: 12.5 percent<br><br>
<dd>Don’t know: 9 percent<br><br>
<dd>No response: 3.5 percent<br><br>
<dd> <br><br>
<dd>What is your opinion of Independent Candidates?<br><br>
</b>
<dd>Good opinion: 51 percent<br><br>
<dd>Bad opinion: 16.2 percent<br><br>
<dd>No response: 32.8 percent<br><br>
<dd> <br><br>
<dd>If the elections were held today for President, who would you vote
for:<br><br>
</b>
<dd>Pepe Lobo (National Party): 28.2 percent<br><br>
<dd>Elvin Santos (Liberal Party): 14.4 percent<br><br>
<dd>Carlos H. Reyes (Independent): 12 percent<br><br>
<dd>César Ham (Democratic Unification): 2.2 percent<br><br>
<dd>Bernard Martinez (PINU): 1.2 percent<br><br>
<dd>Felipe Avila (Christian Democrat): 1 percent<br><br>
<dd>None of the above: 24.7 percent<br><br>
<dd>No response: 16.3 percent<br><br>
</dl>We can see from those combined numbers that while Zelaya’s Liberal
Party remains the most popular, its pro-coup nominee Elvin Santos is
rejected by about two-thirds of his own party members. We can also see
very low interest in participation by voters, with only 53.8 percent
saying they will definitely vote. And – should there be a negotiated
solution in time for the resistance movements to participate in clean
elections (a very big “if”) – Independent candidate Carlos H. Reyes is
very well positioned to supplant the Liberal Party nominee to become one
of the top two candidates, the most viable alternative to Lobo,
especially if, as has been talked a lot about, the Democratic Unification
Party of candidate Cesar Ham joins in coalition behind Reyes.<br><br>
But, of course, such talk is way premature, since conditions do not at
present exist for fair and free elections, and its not clear there is
enough time in the next 53 days to fix that.<br><br>
This chart measures the popularity (“Excelente y Buena opinion”) against
the negative rating (“Mala opinion”) along with the middle category of
“regular opinion” and “don’t know or no response”):<br><br>
<img src="http://narcosphere.narconews.com/userfiles/apobacion2.jpg" width=600 height=529 alt="[]">
<br><br>
The most popular political figures in the country are:<br><br>
<dl>
<dd>President Manuel Zelaya:</b> 44.7 percent (to 25.7 percent
negative)<br><br>
</dl>And…<br><br>
<dl>
<dd>First Lady Xiomara Castro de Zelaya:</b> 42.6 percent (to 17.9
percent negative)<br><br>
</dl>That they enjoy the highest favorability compared to any other
national figure - after a massive PR ad campaign all summer long on TV,
radio and in the pro-coup dailies to portray Zelaya as a national villain
- is also an indication of the pro-coup media's own crisis of credibility
with the public.<br><br>
The least popular political figures in Honduras are those perceived as
coup leaders:<br><br>
<dl>
<dd>Coup “president” Roberto Micheletti:</b> 56.5 percent negative (to
just 16.2 percent positive)<br><br>
<dd>Liberal Party candidate Elvin Santos:</b> 45.2 percent negative (to
18.6 percent positive)<br><br>
<dd>Cardinal Oscar Andres Rodriguez:</b> 42.6 percent (to 26.1 percent
positive)<br><br>
<dd>General Romeo Vasquez:</b> 40 percent negative (to 19.1 percent
positive)<br><br>
<dd>National Party candidate Pepe Lobo:</b> 34.1 percent negative (to
30.5 percent positive)<br><br>
</dl>Interestingly, Independent and anti-coup presidential candidate
Carlos H. Reyes is more popular (24.6 percent) than unpopular (14.1
percent) as are anti-coup media voices like Radio Globo’s Eduardo
Maldonado (31.4 percent positive to 23.2 percent negative) and Channel
36’s Esdras Amado Lopez (23.5 percent positive to 17.3 percent negative).
They are, along with the Zelayas, the only national public figures to
enjoy a significantly more favorable rating from Hondurans than
negative.<br><br>
The bottom line: A majority of the Honduran people oppose the coup,
oppose Micheletti and a wide majority oppose the regime’s repression
against the national resistance. And a plurality openly support the civil
resistance movement.<br><br>
So when Republican US Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen yesterday issued a
“Twitter communiqué” claiming that “nobody wants Zelaya back,” she was
blowing smoke out of the wrong air hole. All those - from the regime, to
the oligarch diaspora to Lanny Davis and the US political consultants
they hire, to the spoiled brat class of some (but not all) gringo expats
in Honduras that repeated unsupported claims that a majority of
Hondurans favor the coup, or support Micheletti, or oppose Zelaya’s
return, now end with egg on their faces, their credibility shot. They
just made it up and thought you would be gullible enough to believe them.
But here we’ve given you, finally, the hard numbers, now available in
full public view.<br><br>
What’s more is that these results explain why the coup regime and its
chambers of commerce and other big business organizations – the forces in
the country that can afford to hire pollsters - have not released any</i>
of their own internal polling data to the public: Because they, too, know
that a majority of Hondurans oppose them, and they are less popular even
than the national nonviolent civil resistance movement that they treat
with such disdain.<br><br>
<br><br>
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