[News] What exactly is at stake in Venezuela’s presidential rec all referendum today?

[News at freedomarchives.org]

What exactly is at stake in Venezuela’s presidential recall referendum today?

<http://www.vheadline.com/readnews.asp?id=22433>http://www.vheadline.com/readnews.asp?id=22433

Author Yves Engler writes: It is surprising that the media -­ left media 
included -­ has been relatively silent regarding Venezuela’s upcoming 
presidential recall referendum. Little has been reported ... aside from on 
Venezuelanalysis.com and VHeadline.com ... about the importance of a Chavez 
win both domestically and internationally.

What exactly is at stake in Venezuela’s presidential recall referendum today?

A “Yes” vote on the recall to remove Chavez from the presidency would be 
devastating for Cuba. The new regime would likely halt the shipment of 
subsidized oil, presently being exchanged for Cuban doctors, sports 
officials and educators. An opposition victory would also have broader 
geopolitical consequences throughout the Caribbean. Venezuela provides 
Caribbean countries with oil on good terms and as a result these states are 
increasingly sympathetic to the present Venezuelan regime. (i.e. they are 
decreasingly submissive in the face of US pressure, especially in the 
Organization of American States (OAS)).

The Caribbean community (Caricom) recently made the decision to refuse to 
recognize the regime in Haiti. Right-wing commentators, nervous about 
newfound Caribbean independence, have been citing this decision as example 
of Venezuela’s influence on the region. (In fact, Caricom’s action, stem 
mainly from the fear that accepting such blatant disregard for the 
democratic process may increase the likelihood similar events in their own 
countries.)
    * If the opposition wins the recall referendum we can expect any 
counterweight influence Venezuela exerts on the Caribbean nations to cease.

Victory for the opposition would also have the effect of halting fiery 
denunciations of US imperialism characteristic of the Chavez regime ... 
opposition forces would be more likely to send Venezuelan troops to Iraq, 
Haiti or whichever country is next on Washington’s list.

Odds are the opposition would harm the various “mission” programs the 
government has set up. There are ten different kinds of “missions” 
including food, micro credit and literacy programs. These have been a huge 
boost in basic services to the poor majority. They have also genuinely 
empowered the poor, laying the ground for future social gains.

As evidence of the “missions” popularity, even the opposition has been 
forced to embrace them, publicly at the very least. The opposition’s new 
position is that efficient missions should be kept. In reality it is almost 
certain that the new regime would abolish the Barrio Adentro (health 
mission) mainly because the clinics are staffed by 17,000 Cuban doctors who 
work in under-serviced slums and poor rural communities.

Venezuela is endowed with a wealth of oil, however, the United Nations 
Human Development Index ranks it as only the 68th best country in the world 
in which to live.

Decades of pumping black gold have only succeeded in enriching a minority. 
According to UN figures, the richest 10% of the Venezuelan population has 
62.9 times the yearly income of the poorest 10%. (The comparable ratio for 
the USA is 15.9% and Japan ranks as the most equal country at 4.5%)

Latin America remains the most unequal region on the globe. All eyes are 
turned towards Venezuela in the hope that something can be done about the 
extreme poverty and inequality. The ratios of income/consumption for 
richest 10% of population compared to the poorest 10%are as follows:
Brazil 85.0
Paraguay 70.4
Venezuela 62.9
Panama 62.3
Colombia 57.8
Guatemala 55.1
Peru 49.9
Honduras 49.1
El Salvador 47.4
Mexico 45.0
Ecuador 44.9
Chile 40.6
Argentina 39.1
Nicaragua 36.1
Guyana 25.9
Costa Rica 25.1
Bolivia 24.6
Uruguay 18.9

On the international front, a large step backwards will be taken on the 
path towards Latin American integration if the opposition prevails. Chavez 
has been a vocal opponent of the Free Trade Area of the Americas, 
preferring to focus efforts on strengthening ties within South America. 
Washington, on the other hand, has for 200 years actively opposed Latin 
American integration, preferring to interact with smaller, weaker states.
    * The process of integration has been advancing on many different 
fronts. Venezuela recently gained partner status in Mercosur, the common 
market between Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay and Paraguay.

A few weeks ago Chavez announced plans to buy eight new oil tankers from 
long-slumping shipyards near Buenos Aires, Argentina. Venezuela and 
Argentina have begun the creation of a common Energy company named 
Petrosur. Brazil’s state-owned oil company, Petrobas, plans to be 
associated with this emerging Pan South American oil enterprise.

Venezuela and Colombia plan to build a gas pipeline that will ship natural 
gas between the two countries. Chavez is trying to bring together the 
Caribbean countries in the creation of PetroCaribe, which would receive 
Venezuelan oil under preferential terms. Chavez states that it is necessary 
for Venezuela to "support our brothers in the Caribbean where small 
countries are having great energy difficulties and they are exploited. By 
whom?” he asks, “the transnational oil companies," he replies.
    * A public TV station broadcasting throughout South American is in the 
works and the Venezuelan government has discussed the idea of a South 
American Development bank.

The aforementioned steps towards Latin American integration may be curbed 
if the opposition wins the recall referendum. Additionally Venezuelan 
support for various social movements across the continent will come to an end.

And what if Chavez wins the recall election?

Will the US intervene to further destabilize Venezuela?

The Bush administration has certainly done a lot to get rid of Chavez ... 
that he’s alive for the recall referendum is a sign of the Bolivarian 
process’ resilience. Just this Tuesday Spain’s El Mundo newspaper reported 
on a Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) meeting held in Chile to prepare a 
contingency plan in the event that Chavez wins the recall.

Still, the current International and domestic situation make it very 
difficult for Bush to get rid of Chavez until after the US election at the 
very least. Chavez’ supporters, including much of the military, would not 
take kindly to his ouster (read: assassination). Removing Chavez would 
undoubtedly cut Venezuela’s oil production, driving oil prices even higher. 
Bush’s buddies in the oil industry wouldn’t complain, but many within the 
larger business class certainly would make some noise.

Oil prices have already affected the profits of many companies. 
Additionally, as the US election approaches, these high gas prices are 
nothing but trouble for Bush. In a society totally dependent upon cars for 
transportation, increased gas costs hurt much of the working class, in turn 
costing Bush votes.

Winning the recall referendum would give the opposition the Presidency for 
just over two years. The Chavistas would still control the Congress. If the 
“missions” are truly popular and the poor continue to organize, it will be 
difficult for the opposition to dismantle them. In fact a serious attack by 
the opposition on these missions would increase the likelihood of a victory 
for Chavez two years down the road.

Of critical importance it is also necessary to consider the position of the 
army, who would, in the short-term at least, most likely remain loyal to 
Chavez. Drastic purges of their ranks or heavy repression -­ against 
protesters trying to save the “missions” for instance -­ could spur a 
left-wing military coup.

Likewise the opposition’s ability to retake control over the state oil 
company, PDVSA, is not assured ... the newly formed blue-collar oil workers 
union has already announced plans to strike if the recall is successful.

After today hopefully we will be asking how can the initial Bolivarian 
successes be expanded not how will the opposition destroy the accomplishments.

Yves Engler
<mailto:yvesengler at hotmail.com>yvesengler at hotmail.com

Yves Engler is author of the forthcoming book playing left wing from hockey 
to politics: the making of a student activist. He’s traveled extensively in 
Venezuela. You may email Yves Engler at 
<mailto:yvesengler at hotmail.com>yvesengler at hotmail.com



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