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<font face="Georgia" size=6 color="#A80000"><br><br>
</font><font face="georgia" size=5 color="#A80000">What exactly is at
stake in Venezuela’s presidential recall referendum
today?</font><font face="georgia" size=5> <br><br>
</font><font face="Arial, Helvetica" size=4><a href="http://www.vheadline.com/readnews.asp?id=22433">http://www.vheadline.com/readnews.asp?id=22433</a><br><br>
</font><font face="georgia" size=2><b>Author Yves Engler writes: </b>It
is surprising that the media - left media included - has been
relatively silent regarding Venezuela’s upcoming presidential recall
referendum. Little has been reported ... aside from on
Venezuelanalysis.com and VHeadline.com ... about the importance of a
Chavez win both domestically and internationally. <br><br>
<b>What exactly is at stake in Venezuela’s presidential recall referendum
today? <br><br>
</b>A “Yes” vote on the recall to remove Chavez from the presidency would
be devastating for Cuba. The new regime would likely halt the shipment of
subsidized oil, presently being exchanged for Cuban doctors, sports
officials and educators. An opposition victory would also have broader
geopolitical consequences throughout the Caribbean. Venezuela provides
Caribbean countries with oil on good terms and as a result these states
are increasingly sympathetic to the present Venezuelan regime. <i>(i.e.
they are decreasingly submissive in the face of US pressure, especially
in the Organization of American States (OAS))</i>.<br><br>
The Caribbean community (Caricom) recently made the decision to refuse to
recognize the regime in Haiti. Right-wing commentators, nervous about
newfound Caribbean independence, have been citing this decision as
example of Venezuela’s influence on the region. <i>(In fact, Caricom’s
action, stem mainly from the fear that accepting such blatant disregard
for the democratic process may increase the likelihood similar events in
their own countries.)</i>
<ul>
<li>If the opposition wins the recall referendum we can expect any
counterweight influence Venezuela exerts on the Caribbean nations to
cease. </font>
</ul><font face="verdana" size=2><br>
</font><font face="georgia" size=2><b>Victory for the opposition would
also have the effect of halting fiery denunciations of US imperialism
characteristic of the Chavez regime ... opposition forces would be more
likely to send Venezuelan troops to Iraq, Haiti or whichever country is
next on Washington’s list.<br><br>
</b>Odds are the opposition would harm the various “mission” programs the
government has set up. There are ten different kinds of “missions”
including food, micro credit and literacy programs. These have been a
huge boost in basic services to the poor majority. They have also
genuinely empowered the poor, laying the ground for future social gains.
<br><br>
As evidence of the “missions” popularity, even the opposition has been
forced to embrace them, publicly at the very least. The opposition’s new
position is that efficient missions should be kept. In reality it is
almost certain that the new regime would abolish the Barrio Adentro
<i>(health mission)</i> mainly because the clinics are staffed by 17,000
Cuban doctors who work in under-serviced slums and poor rural
communities. <br><br>
<b>Venezuela is endowed with a wealth of oil, however, the United Nations
Human Development Index ranks it as only the 68th best country in the
world in which to live.<br><br>
</b>Decades of pumping black gold have only succeeded in enriching a
minority. According to UN figures, the richest 10% of the Venezuelan
population has 62.9 times the yearly income of the poorest 10%. <i>(The
comparable ratio for the USA is 15.9% and Japan ranks as the most equal
country at 4.5%) <br><br>
</i>Latin America remains the most unequal region on the globe. All eyes
are turned towards Venezuela in the hope that something can be done about
the extreme poverty and inequality. The ratios of income/consumption for
richest 10% of population compared to the poorest 10%are as follows:
<br>
</font>
<dl>
<dl>
<dl><div align="center">
<dd><font face="arial" size=4 color="#000080">Brazil 85.0<br>
<dd>Paraguay 70.4<br>
<dd>Venezuela 62.9<br>
<dd>Panama 62.3<br>
<dd>Colombia 57.8<br>
<dd>Guatemala 55.1<br>
<dd>Peru 49.9<br>
<dd>Honduras 49.1<br>
<dd>El Salvador 47.4 <br>
<dd>Mexico 45.0 <br>
<dd>Ecuador 44.9 <br>
<dd>Chile 40.6 <br>
<dd>Argentina 39.1 <br>
<dd>Nicaragua 36.1 <br>
<dd>Guyana 25.9 <br>
<dd>Costa Rica 25.1 <br>
<dd>Bolivia 24.6 <br>
<dd>Uruguay 18.9 <br><br>
</font></div>
</dl>
</dl>
</dl><font face="georgia" size=3>On the international front, a large step
backwards will be taken on the path towards Latin American integration if
the opposition prevails. Chavez has been a vocal opponent of the Free
Trade Area of the Americas, preferring to focus efforts on strengthening
ties within South America. Washington, on the other hand, has for 200
years actively opposed Latin American integration, preferring to interact
with smaller, weaker states.
<ul>
<li>The process of integration has been advancing on many different
fronts. Venezuela recently gained partner status in Mercosur, the common
market between Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay and Paraguay.</font>
</ul><br>
<font face="georgia" size=3>A few weeks ago Chavez announced plans to buy
eight new oil tankers from long-slumping shipyards near Buenos Aires,
Argentina. Venezuela and Argentina have begun the creation of a common
Energy company named Petrosur. Brazil’s state-owned oil company,
Petrobas, plans to be associated with this emerging Pan South American
oil enterprise. <br><br>
Venezuela and Colombia plan to build a gas pipeline that will ship
natural gas between the two countries. Chavez is trying to bring together
the Caribbean countries in the creation of PetroCaribe, which would
receive Venezuelan oil under preferential terms. Chavez states that it is
necessary for Venezuela to "support our brothers in the Caribbean
where small countries are having great energy difficulties and they are
exploited. By whom?” he asks, “the transnational oil companies," he
replies. </font>
<ul>
<li><font face="georgia" size=2><b>A public TV station broadcasting
throughout South American is in the works and the Venezuelan government
has discussed the idea of a South American Development bank.
</b></font>
</ul><font size=3><br>
</font><font face="georgia" size=3>The aforementioned steps towards Latin
American integration may be curbed if the opposition wins the recall
referendum. Additionally Venezuelan support for various social movements
across the continent will come to an end. <br><br>
</font><font face="georgia" size=5 color="#A80000">And what if Chavez
wins the recall election?<br><br>
</font><font face="georgia" size=4>Will the US intervene to further
destabilize Venezuela?<br><br>
</font><font face="georgia" size=3>The Bush administration has certainly
done a lot to get rid of Chavez ... that he’s alive for the recall
referendum is a sign of the Bolivarian process’ resilience. Just this
Tuesday Spain’s El Mundo newspaper reported on a Central Intelligence
Agency (CIA) meeting held in Chile to prepare a contingency plan in the
event that Chavez wins the recall. <br><br>
Still, the current International and domestic situation make it very
difficult for Bush to get rid of Chavez until after the US election at
the very least. Chavez’ supporters, including much of the military, would
not take kindly to his ouster <i>(read: assassination)</i>. Removing
Chavez would undoubtedly cut Venezuela’s oil production, driving oil
prices even higher. Bush’s buddies in the oil industry wouldn’t complain,
but many within the larger business class certainly would make some
noise. <br><br>
Oil prices have already affected the profits of many companies.
Additionally, as the US election approaches, these high gas prices are
nothing but trouble for Bush. In a society totally dependent upon cars
for transportation, increased gas costs hurt much of the working class,
in turn costing Bush votes. <br><br>
Winning the recall referendum would give the opposition the Presidency
for just over two years. The Chavistas would still control the Congress.
If the “missions” are truly popular and the poor continue to organize, it
will be difficult for the opposition to dismantle them. In fact a serious
attack by the opposition on these missions would increase the likelihood
of a victory for Chavez two years down the road. <br><br>
Of critical importance it is also necessary to consider the position of
the army, who would, in the short-term at least, most likely remain loyal
to Chavez. Drastic purges of their ranks or heavy repression - against
protesters trying to save the “missions” for instance - could spur a
left-wing military coup.<br><br>
</font><font face="georgia" size=2><b>Likewise the opposition’s ability
to retake control over the state oil company, PDVSA, is not assured ...
the newly formed blue-collar oil workers union has already announced
plans to strike if the recall is
successful.</b></font><font face="georgia" size=3> <br><br>
After today hopefully we will be asking how can the initial Bolivarian
successes be expanded <b><u>not</u></b> how will the opposition destroy
the accomplishments. <br><br>
</font><font face="georgia" size=5>Yves Engler<br>
<a href="mailto:yvesengler@hotmail.com">yvesengler@hotmail.com</a>
<br><br>
</font><font face="georgia" size=2><b>Yves Engler is author of the forthcoming book playing left wing from hockey to politics: the making of a student activist. He’s traveled extensively in Venezuela. You may email Yves Engler at <a href="mailto:yvesengler@hotmail.com">yvesengler@hotmail.com</a><br><br>
<br>
</b></font><x-sigsep><p></x-sigsep>
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