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      <title>Iran's Strategy Vindicated as US's Logistics Chain Hobbled
        and Stretched by Early Strikes</title>
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src="https://eotrx.substackcdn.com/o/264024cff8aaea44/p.gif?token=eyJtIjoiPDIwMjYwODE3MDQwNTUxLjMuZDQ2ZTM3NzFmZWM3ODcwY0BtZy1kMS5zdWJzdGFjay5jb20-IiwidSI6MzY3NTE1ODMsInIiOiJjbGF1ZGVAZnJlZWRvbWFyY2hpdmVzLm9yZyIsImQiOiJtZy1kMS5zdWJzdGFjay5jb20iLCJwIjoyMTE0NTM1MTAsInQiOiJuZXdzbGV0dGVyIiwiYSI6ImV2ZXJ5b25lIiwicyI6MTM1MTI3NCwiYyI6InBvc3QiLCJmIjp0cnVlLCJwb3NpdGlvbiI6InRvcCIsImlhdCI6MTc4NjkzOTg4NSwiZXhwIjoxNzg5NTMxODg1LCJpc3MiOiJwdWItMCIsInN1YiI6ImVvIn0.78l9XBjW5m-7LxZFdrKam_PxlT_YULlfNtGskML2Cy4"
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style="display:none;font-size:1px;color:#333333;line-height:1px;max-height:0px;max-width:0px;opacity:0;overflow:hidden;">On
        the Iranian front, the most interesting item over the transom
        today are new reports vindicating something many analysts have
        proposed since the beginning of the conflict.</div>
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                        moz-do-not-send="true">Iran's Strategy
                        Vindicated as US's Logistics Chain Hobbled and
                        Stretched by Early Strikes</a></h1>
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href="https://substack.com/@simplicius76" moz-do-not-send="true">Simplicius</a></div>
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datetime="2026-08-17T04:05:50.592Z">Aug 17, 2026</time></div>
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                <div class="post typography" dir="auto"
style="--image-offset-margin: -120px;padding: 32px 0 0 0;font-size: 16px;line-height: 26px;">
                  <div class="body markup" dir="auto"
style="text-align: initial;font-size: 16px;line-height: 26px;width: 100%;margin-bottom: 16px;overflow-wrap: anywhere;word-break: break-word;">
                    <p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;margin-top: 0;">On
                      the Iranian front, the most interesting item over
                      the transom today are new reports vindicating
                      something many analysts have proposed since the
                      beginning of the conflict. Namely, that US\u2019s naval
                      problems in the theater all stemmed from Iran\u2019s
                      deliberate strategy of wiping out US bases in the
                      region, resulting in the extremely inefficient
                      lengthening of US supply chain logistics for war:
                    </p>
                    <div class="captioned-image-container-static"
style="font-size: 16px;line-height: 26px;margin: 32px auto;">
                      <figure style="width: 100%;margin: 0 auto;">
                        <table class="image-wrapper" width="100%"
                          border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"
                          data-component-name="Image2ToDOMStatic"
                          style="mso-padding-alt: 1em 0 1.6em;">
                          <tbody>
                            <tr>
                              <td style="text-align: center;"></td>
                              <td class="content" align="left"
                                width="528" style="text-align: center;"><a
                                  class="image-link" target="_blank"
href="https://substack.com/redirect/ae1c5f2b-8972-48cc-b329-35ee01e86f79?j=eyJ1IjoibHZwcGIifQ.9RIwWbE6EVIB7Jy8lfazxZKfps8R18neRGMKwOiqnRM"
style="position: relative;flex-direction: column;align-items: center;padding: 0;width: auto;height: auto;border: none;text-decoration: none;display: block;margin: 0;"
                                  moz-do-not-send="true"><img
data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/0f002d0c-c046-4a93-9398-8241138e3e37_800x798.jpeg&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:798,&quot;width&quot;:800,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:528,&quot;bytes&quot;:88931,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/jpeg&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:false,&quot;topImage&quot;:true,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://simplicius76.substack.com/i/211453510?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0f002d0c-c046-4a93-9398-8241138e3e37_800x798.jpeg&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}"
                                    alt="" width="528" height="526.68"
src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!EMEo!,w_528,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0f002d0c-c046-4a93-9398-8241138e3e37_800x798.jpeg"
style="border: none !important;vertical-align: middle;display: block;-ms-interpolation-mode: bicubic;height: auto;margin-bottom: 0;width: auto !important;max-width: 100% !important;margin: 0 auto;"
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                              <td style="text-align: center;"></td>
                            </tr>
                          </tbody>
                        </table>
                        <figcaption class="image-caption"
style="box-sizing: content-box;color: rgb(119,119,119);font-size: 14px;line-height: 20px;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: -.15px;margin-top: 8px;width: 70%;padding-left: 15%;padding-right: 15%;text-align: center;"><a
href="https://substack.com/redirect/9a223bb5-d0e9-47d4-ae02-ef7c3279f7b7?j=eyJ1IjoibHZwcGIifQ.9RIwWbE6EVIB7Jy8lfazxZKfps8R18neRGMKwOiqnRM"
                            style="text-decoration: underline;"
                            moz-do-not-send="true">https://www.nytimes.com/2026/08/14/us/politics/uss-abraham-lincoln-trump-supplies-diego-garcia.html</a></figcaption></figure>
                    </div>
                    <p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;">The
                      piece asserts that the US Navy\u2019s problems began
                      immediately after Iran\u2019s opening salvo of the war,
                      which saw the Navy\u2019s top regional logistics hub in
                      Bahrain go up in smoke from Iranian missiles and
                      drones: </p>
                    <blockquote
style="border-left: 4px solid #51b4e9;margin: 20px 0;padding: 0;">
                      <p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);margin-left: 20px;line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;"><em>The
                          aircraft carrier U.S.S. Abraham Lincoln\u2019s
                          supply problems began soon after the first day
                          of the war, as Iranian missiles and attack
                          drones fell on a Navy base in Bahrain.</em></p>
                      <p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);margin-left: 20px;line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;"><em><strong>The
                            Iranian attack, retaliation for the
                            U.S.-Israeli assault on Tehran, destroyed
                            much of the base. And as it went up in
                            smoke, so did a major logistics hub that the
                            Navy has relied on for decades.</strong></em></p>
                      <p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);margin-left: 20px;line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;"><em>The
                          Navy needed a Plan B to continue feeding the
                          sailors working around the clock to keep
                          warplanes flying strike missions, and later to
                          maintain a blockade of Iran\u2019s ports.</em></p>
                    </blockquote>
                    <div class="captioned-image-container-static"
style="font-size: 16px;line-height: 26px;margin: 32px auto;">
                      <figure style="width: 100%;margin: 0 auto;">
                        <table class="image-wrapper" width="100%"
                          border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"
                          data-component-name="Image2ToDOMStatic"
                          style="mso-padding-alt: 1em 0 1.6em;">
                          <tbody>
                            <tr>
                              <td style="text-align: center;"></td>
                              <td class="content" align="left"
                                width="532" style="text-align: center;"><a
                                  class="image-link" target="_blank"
href="https://substack.com/redirect/4af9c4f0-54a6-4841-8e07-44e977308439?j=eyJ1IjoibHZwcGIifQ.9RIwWbE6EVIB7Jy8lfazxZKfps8R18neRGMKwOiqnRM"
style="position: relative;flex-direction: column;align-items: center;padding: 0;width: auto;height: auto;border: none;text-decoration: none;display: block;margin: 0;"
                                  moz-do-not-send="true"><img
data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/2687f433-d546-45f2-af2c-ff31b080265c_1031x213.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:213,&quot;width&quot;:1031,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:532,&quot;bytes&quot;:63895,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:false,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://simplicius76.substack.com/i/211453510?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2687f433-d546-45f2-af2c-ff31b080265c_1031x213.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}"
                                    alt="" width="532"
                                    height="109.90882638215325"
src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!jrEi!,w_532,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2687f433-d546-45f2-af2c-ff31b080265c_1031x213.png"
style="border: none !important;vertical-align: middle;display: block;-ms-interpolation-mode: bicubic;height: auto;margin-bottom: 0;width: auto !important;max-width: 100% !important;margin: 0 auto;"
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                              <td style="text-align: center;"></td>
                            </tr>
                          </tbody>
                        </table>
                      </figure>
                    </div>
                    <p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;">Israeli
                      outlets had previously covered the fact that the
                      Pentagon allegedly launched a \u2018secret\u2019 operation
                      to essentially retreat strategic assets from
                      within immediate range of Iranian strikes toward
                      \u201cprotected rear hubs\u201d, which stretched an aging
                      and sclerotic US military to the brink:</p>
                    <table class="twitter-embed tweet"
                      role="presentation" width="100%" border="0"
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class="pencraft pc-reset line-height-20-t4M0El font-text-qe4AeH size-15-Psle70 weight-regular-mUq6Gb reset-IxiVJZ text-aFN1BV"
style="list-style: none;color: unset;font-size: 15px;line-height: 20px;text-decoration: unset;margin: 0;font-family: system-ui,-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,'Segoe UI',Roboto,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif,'Apple Color Emoji','Segoe UI Emoji','Segoe UI Symbol';font-weight: 400;white-space: pre-wrap">The Pentagon has secretly launched "Defensive Arc," moving strategic air assets away from frontline Middle Eastern bases near Iran to protected rear hubs. Following canceled strikes, the US shifted to an "over-the-horizon deterrence" strategy to shield forces from Iranian missile</div>
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                                                  AM · Aug 4, 2026</span><span
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                                                  · </span><span
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                    <p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;">The
                      NYT piece goes on: </p>
                    <blockquote
style="border-left: 4px solid #51b4e9;margin: 20px 0;padding: 0;">
                      <p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);margin-left: 20px;line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;"><em><strong>The
                            loss of the hub in Bahrain has contributed
                            to a host of reported problems on carriers
                            supporting operations against Iran</strong><span>,
                            as Democratic senators raise concerns about
                            the Lincoln\u2019s 5,000 sailors and their nearly
                            nine-month deployment.</span></em></p>
                    </blockquote>
                    <p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;">NYT
                      details how the ailing USS Lincoln will now be
                      replaced by the USS George Washington, hobbling
                      over from INDOPACOM, leaving the 7th Fleet with no
                      forward deployed carriers on the critical \u2018Chinese
                      front\u2019. </p>
                    <div class="captioned-image-container-static"
style="font-size: 16px;line-height: 26px;margin: 32px auto;">
                      <figure style="width: 100%;margin: 0 auto;">
                        <table class="image-wrapper" width="100%"
                          border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"
                          data-component-name="Image2ToDOMStatic"
                          style="mso-padding-alt: 1em 0 1.6em;">
                          <tbody>
                            <tr>
                              <td style="text-align: center;"></td>
                              <td class="content" align="left"
                                width="462" style="text-align: center;"><a
                                  class="image-link" target="_blank"
href="https://substack.com/redirect/39e643a9-a9f0-4607-8146-56e3af52da56?j=eyJ1IjoibHZwcGIifQ.9RIwWbE6EVIB7Jy8lfazxZKfps8R18neRGMKwOiqnRM"
style="position: relative;flex-direction: column;align-items: center;padding: 0;width: auto;height: auto;border: none;text-decoration: none;display: block;margin: 0;"
                                  moz-do-not-send="true"><img
data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/b8e19b3e-e692-4ce9-b686-ef10622ba593_1467x599.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:595,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:462,&quot;bytes&quot;:135159,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://simplicius76.substack.com/i/211453510?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb8e19b3e-e692-4ce9-b686-ef10622ba593_1467x599.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}"
                                    alt="" width="462"
                                    height="188.79807692307693"
src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!8VRF!,w_462,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb8e19b3e-e692-4ce9-b686-ef10622ba593_1467x599.png"
style="border: none !important;vertical-align: middle;display: block;-ms-interpolation-mode: bicubic;height: auto;margin-bottom: 0;width: auto !important;max-width: 100% !important;margin: 0 auto;"
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                              <td style="text-align: center;"></td>
                            </tr>
                          </tbody>
                        </table>
                        <figcaption class="image-caption"
style="box-sizing: content-box;color: rgb(119,119,119);font-size: 14px;line-height: 20px;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: -.15px;margin-top: 8px;width: 70%;padding-left: 15%;padding-right: 15%;text-align: center;"><a
href="https://substack.com/redirect/7525c3e6-e528-4bf9-a470-d44b49adae5e?j=eyJ1IjoibHZwcGIifQ.9RIwWbE6EVIB7Jy8lfazxZKfps8R18neRGMKwOiqnRM"
                            style="text-decoration: underline;"
                            moz-do-not-send="true">https://apnews.com/article/aircraft-carriers-trump-china-pacific-iran-war-87cfb838de8c13464fa3cab1840ad87d</a></figcaption></figure>
                    </div>
                    <div class="captioned-image-container-static"
style="font-size: 16px;line-height: 26px;margin: 32px auto;">
                      <figure style="width: 100%;margin: 0 auto;">
                        <table class="image-wrapper" width="100%"
                          border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"
                          data-component-name="Image2ToDOMStatic"
                          style="mso-padding-alt: 1em 0 1.6em;">
                          <tbody>
                            <tr>
                              <td style="text-align: center;"></td>
                              <td class="content" align="left"
                                width="470" style="text-align: center;"><a
                                  class="image-link" target="_blank"
href="https://substack.com/redirect/1065c035-e519-446a-9a88-facc9a7a33f7?j=eyJ1IjoibHZwcGIifQ.9RIwWbE6EVIB7Jy8lfazxZKfps8R18neRGMKwOiqnRM"
style="position: relative;flex-direction: column;align-items: center;padding: 0;width: auto;height: auto;border: none;text-decoration: none;display: block;margin: 0;"
                                  moz-do-not-send="true"><img
data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/d68b0f1e-3bf8-4b0d-b2b6-ead73052d763_1106x705.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:705,&quot;width&quot;:1106,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:470,&quot;bytes&quot;:184039,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://simplicius76.substack.com/i/211453510?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8887d613-392c-4c00-bbdc-435b05509eb4_1119x705.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}"
                                    alt="" width="470"
                                    height="299.59312839059675"
src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!awWL!,w_470,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd68b0f1e-3bf8-4b0d-b2b6-ead73052d763_1106x705.png"
style="border: none !important;vertical-align: middle;display: block;-ms-interpolation-mode: bicubic;height: auto;margin-bottom: 0;width: auto !important;max-width: 100% !important;margin: 0 auto;"
                                    moz-do-not-send="true"></a></td>
                              <td style="text-align: center;"></td>
                            </tr>
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                      </figure>
                    </div>
                    <p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;">This
                      comes amidst reports that USS Benfold had major
                      \u201cengineering issues\u201d that caused it to go dead for
                      four days in the South China Sea:</p>
                    <div class="captioned-image-container-static"
style="font-size: 16px;line-height: 26px;margin: 32px auto;">
                      <figure style="width: 100%;margin: 0 auto;">
                        <table class="image-wrapper" width="100%"
                          border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"
                          data-component-name="Image2ToDOMStatic"
                          style="mso-padding-alt: 1em 0 1.6em;">
                          <tbody>
                            <tr>
                              <td style="text-align: center;"></td>
                              <td class="content" align="left"
                                width="492" style="text-align: center;"><a
                                  class="image-link" target="_blank"
href="https://substack.com/redirect/26d94b50-14d3-4c25-afe9-5068becd4ed6?j=eyJ1IjoibHZwcGIifQ.9RIwWbE6EVIB7Jy8lfazxZKfps8R18neRGMKwOiqnRM"
style="position: relative;flex-direction: column;align-items: center;padding: 0;width: auto;height: auto;border: none;text-decoration: none;display: block;margin: 0;"
                                  moz-do-not-send="true"><img
data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/5d2c1e89-e198-4c08-8e5c-bb412520576a_1245x222.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:222,&quot;width&quot;:1245,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:492,&quot;bytes&quot;:46985,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://simplicius76.substack.com/i/211453510?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5d2c1e89-e198-4c08-8e5c-bb412520576a_1245x222.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}"
                                    alt="" width="492"
                                    height="87.73012048192771"
src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!XJOF!,w_492,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5d2c1e89-e198-4c08-8e5c-bb412520576a_1245x222.png"
style="border: none !important;vertical-align: middle;display: block;-ms-interpolation-mode: bicubic;height: auto;margin-bottom: 0;width: auto !important;max-width: 100% !important;margin: 0 auto;"
                                    moz-do-not-send="true"></a></td>
                              <td style="text-align: center;"></td>
                            </tr>
                          </tbody>
                        </table>
                        <figcaption class="image-caption"
style="box-sizing: content-box;color: rgb(119,119,119);font-size: 14px;line-height: 20px;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: -.15px;margin-top: 8px;width: 70%;padding-left: 15%;padding-right: 15%;text-align: center;"><a
href="https://substack.com/redirect/db7ed668-f8c0-4069-8e77-b27442ff65ec?j=eyJ1IjoibHZwcGIifQ.9RIwWbE6EVIB7Jy8lfazxZKfps8R18neRGMKwOiqnRM"
                            style="text-decoration: underline;"
                            moz-do-not-send="true">https://news.usni.org/2026/08/14/uss-benfold-was-stalled-in-the-south-china-sea-for-four-days-after-engineering-casualty</a></figcaption></figure>
                    </div>
                    <blockquote
style="border-left: 4px solid #51b4e9;margin: 20px 0;padding: 0;">
                      <p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);margin-left: 20px;line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;"><em><strong>Guided-missile
                            destroyer USS Benfold (DDG-65) spent four
                            days in the South China Sea without power
                            after an engineering failure, USNI News has
                            learned.</strong></em></p>
                      <p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);margin-left: 20px;line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;"><em>Benfold
                          suffered the engineering casualty resulting in
                          a loss of power last month, Cmdr. Matthew
                          Comer, spokesperson with U.S. 7th Fleet, told
                          USNI News in a statement.</em></p>
                      <p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);margin-left: 20px;line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;"><em><strong>The
                            loss of power meant sailors were without
                            galley services, toilets and air
                            conditioning. Potable water was also
                            affected, Comer said.</strong><span> He did
                            not respond to a question about how sailors
                            handled waste.</span></em></p>
                    </blockquote>
                    <p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;">Not
                      far away, another US Arleigh Burke destroyer\u2014some
                      having identified it as DDG-74, though it isn\u2019t
                      fully confirmed\u2014was spotted looking in rough
                      shape, reportedly somewhere near Japan:</p>
                    <div
class="video-player-with-background is-static video-player-wrapper"
                      role="region" aria-label="Video player"
style="flex-grow: 1;font-size: 16px;line-height: 26px;margin-top: 0.5em;"><a
class="video-player video-player-with-background"
href="https://substack.com/redirect/f62ce507-3599-419c-8869-46650f99ddaa?j=eyJ1IjoibHZwcGIifQ.9RIwWbE6EVIB7Jy8lfazxZKfps8R18neRGMKwOiqnRM"
style="position: relative;display: block;width: 100%;cursor: pointer;background-color: rgb(0,0,0);height: auto;border-radius: 8px;padding-bottom: 0"
                        moz-do-not-send="true"><img
                          class="video-player-preview" width="550"
src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!NhPK!,w_1100,h_1100,c_pad,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/l_play_button_usfui2,w_144,e_colorize:0/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-video.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fvideo_upload%2Fpost%2F211453510%2F3e93485d-ad17-454c-bca3-19d60bcaee30%2Ftranscoded-00001.png"
                          data-component-name="VideoPlayer-PreviewImg"
data-testid="video-player-static-preview-image"
style="border: none !important;vertical-align: middle;display: block;-ms-interpolation-mode: bicubic;max-width: 100%;height: auto;margin: 0 auto;top: 0;left: 0;width: 100%;max-height: 100%;background: black;cursor: pointer;object-fit: contain;position: relative;border-radius: 8px;"
                          moz-do-not-send="true"></a></div>
                    <p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;">The
                      state of the US Navy has shocked observers who
                      were not attuned to such a rapid decline in the
                      state of things, particularly amidst a major
                      conflict wherein the Navy was meant to play the
                      key sustaining role. </p>
                    <p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;">Now
                      WaPo reports that US\u2019s Gulf allies are again
                      reconsidering the deployment of US bases on their
                      territory in frustration for Trump\u2019s erratic and
                      amateurish handling of the Iran conflict: </p>
                    <div class="captioned-image-container-static"
style="font-size: 16px;line-height: 26px;margin: 32px auto;">
                      <figure style="width: 100%;margin: 0 auto;">
                        <table class="image-wrapper" width="100%"
                          border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"
                          data-component-name="Image2ToDOMStatic"
                          style="mso-padding-alt: 1em 0 1.6em;">
                          <tbody>
                            <tr>
                              <td style="text-align: center;"></td>
                              <td class="content" align="left"
                                width="508" style="text-align: center;"><a
                                  class="image-link" target="_blank"
href="https://substack.com/redirect/7f8cd0f5-32ee-4a07-8299-3cf283efe31d?j=eyJ1IjoibHZwcGIifQ.9RIwWbE6EVIB7Jy8lfazxZKfps8R18neRGMKwOiqnRM"
style="position: relative;flex-direction: column;align-items: center;padding: 0;width: auto;height: auto;border: none;text-decoration: none;display: block;margin: 0;"
                                  moz-do-not-send="true"><img
data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/f7777d4e-3660-400e-aca8-15bc0ea1250c_748x263.jpeg&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:263,&quot;width&quot;:748,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:508,&quot;bytes&quot;:30282,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/jpeg&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://simplicius76.substack.com/i/211453510?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff7777d4e-3660-400e-aca8-15bc0ea1250c_748x263.jpeg&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}"
                                    alt="" width="508"
                                    height="178.6149732620321"
src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!crIm!,w_508,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff7777d4e-3660-400e-aca8-15bc0ea1250c_748x263.jpeg"
style="border: none !important;vertical-align: middle;display: block;-ms-interpolation-mode: bicubic;height: auto;margin-bottom: 0;width: auto !important;max-width: 100% !important;margin: 0 auto;"
                                    moz-do-not-send="true"></a></td>
                              <td style="text-align: center;"></td>
                            </tr>
                          </tbody>
                        </table>
                        <figcaption class="image-caption"
style="box-sizing: content-box;color: rgb(119,119,119);font-size: 14px;line-height: 20px;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: -.15px;margin-top: 8px;width: 70%;padding-left: 15%;padding-right: 15%;text-align: center;"><a
href="https://substack.com/redirect/6189cf71-2205-4855-a9d2-67cdae792ea9?j=eyJ1IjoibHZwcGIifQ.9RIwWbE6EVIB7Jy8lfazxZKfps8R18neRGMKwOiqnRM"
                            style="text-decoration: underline;"
                            moz-do-not-send="true">https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2026/08/15/frustration-with-trump-grows-among-us-persian-gulf-allies-officials-say/</a></figcaption></figure>
                    </div>
                    <blockquote
style="border-left: 4px solid #51b4e9;margin: 20px 0;padding: 0;">
                      <p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);margin-left: 20px;line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;"><em><strong>Some
                            have begun to debate the utility of
                            continuing to host large U.S. military
                            installations on their territory.</strong></em></p>
                      <p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);margin-left: 20px;line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;"><em>\u201cTrump
                          started this war,\u201d one Gulf official said,
                          \u201cand we are paying the price.\u201d Like others in
                          this article, he spoke on the condition of
                          anonymity to discuss the sensitive subject.
                          Anger with the United States, the official
                          said, was at its highest point since the U.S.
                          and Israel attacked Iran in February.</em></p>
                      <p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);margin-left: 20px;line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;"><em><span>The
                            Gulf states continue to rely on Washington
                            as a close security partner and major arms
                            supplier, and Qatar and Bahrain host large
                            U.S. bases. </span><strong><span>But the
                              frustration is leading some states to
                              consider new arrangements. These dynamics
                              are unlikely in the near term to
                              significantly reorder the region, </span><span>analysts
                              say</span><span>, but some countries have
                              begun to explore their options.</span></strong></em></p>
                    </blockquote>
                    <p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;"><span>We
                        can conclude that Iran\u2019s strategy has worked:
                        Take out US\u2019s eyes and ears in the region by
                        targeting radar systems, saturate air
                        defenses\u2014whose stocks can\u2019t be regenerated\u2014with
                        cheap drones and throwaway first-gen ballistic
                        missiles; then when the battlefield has been
                        sufficiently shaped, begin throwing in the most
                        advanced and accurate ballistic missiles to hit
                        the actual logistics nodes, base C2 HQs, etc.,
                        to cause US to scramble its entire tail out as
                        far out of range as possible. This then strains
                        the deteriorating logistics chain to the point
                        of breaking, as we\u2019re seeing now </span><strong><a
href="https://substack.com/redirect/14a88c34-d579-417b-b506-217ad8df1698?j=eyJ1IjoibHZwcGIifQ.9RIwWbE6EVIB7Jy8lfazxZKfps8R18neRGMKwOiqnRM"
                          style="color: #51b4e9;text-decoration: none;"
                          moz-do-not-send="true">with the striking
                          deterioration of morale</a></strong><span>. </span></p>
                    <div class="captioned-image-container-static"
style="font-size: 16px;line-height: 26px;margin: 32px auto;">
                      <figure style="width: 100%;margin: 0 auto;">
                        <table class="image-wrapper" width="100%"
                          border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"
                          data-component-name="Image2ToDOMStatic"
                          style="mso-padding-alt: 1em 0 1.6em;">
                          <tbody>
                            <tr>
                              <td style="text-align: center;"></td>
                              <td class="content" align="left"
                                width="1456" style="text-align: center;"><a
                                  class="image-link" target="_blank"
href="https://substack.com/redirect/1325fe27-8288-4bb5-918d-54e2abfba71f?j=eyJ1IjoibHZwcGIifQ.9RIwWbE6EVIB7Jy8lfazxZKfps8R18neRGMKwOiqnRM"
style="position: relative;flex-direction: column;align-items: center;padding: 0;width: auto;height: auto;border: none;text-decoration: none;display: block;margin: 0;"
                                  moz-do-not-send="true"><img
                                    class="wide-image"
data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/c42a875f-5f1e-435e-94af-949f3d7d614c_2197x858.jpeg&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:569,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:376933,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/jpeg&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://simplicius76.substack.com/i/211453510?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc42a875f-5f1e-435e-94af-949f3d7d614c_2197x858.jpeg&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}"
                                    alt="" width="550"
                                    height="214.9381868131868"
src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!1pWs!,w_1100,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc42a875f-5f1e-435e-94af-949f3d7d614c_2197x858.jpeg"
style="border: none !important;vertical-align: middle;display: block;-ms-interpolation-mode: bicubic;height: auto;margin-bottom: 0;width: auto !important;max-width: 100% !important;margin: 0 auto;"
                                    moz-do-not-send="true"></a></td>
                              <td style="text-align: center;"></td>
                            </tr>
                          </tbody>
                        </table>
                        <figcaption class="image-caption"
style="box-sizing: content-box;color: rgb(119,119,119);font-size: 14px;line-height: 20px;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: -.15px;margin-top: 8px;width: 70%;padding-left: 15%;padding-right: 15%;text-align: center;"><a
href="https://substack.com/redirect/67af7059-4f91-436c-be54-6c957dc175e3?j=eyJ1IjoibHZwcGIifQ.9RIwWbE6EVIB7Jy8lfazxZKfps8R18neRGMKwOiqnRM"
                            style="text-decoration: underline;"
                            moz-do-not-send="true">https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2026/08/13/us-military-has-lost-roughly-25-its-reaper-drones-iran-war-depletes-arsenal/</a></figcaption></figure>
                    </div>
                    <blockquote
style="border-left: 4px solid #51b4e9;margin: 20px 0;padding: 0;">
                      <p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);margin-left: 20px;line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;"><em>The
                          U.S. military has lost at least 45 MQ-9 Reaper
                          drones during the war with Iran, or roughly 25
                          percent of its fleet, according to three U.S.
                          officials familiar with the matter.</em></p>
                    </blockquote>
                    <p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;">As
                      noted above, WaPo \u201cconfirms\u201d the US lost 45
                      Reapers, equivalent to 25% of the entire drone
                      fleet. Some have added that the Houthis had
                      already taken out an additional 10% or so, which
                      would likely edge it closer toward 35% total lost
                      in the past year or two.</p>
                    <p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;">Interestingly,
                      WaPo reports not all were shot down but many
                      apparently fell victim to Iran\u2019s\u2014perhaps
                      Russian-sourced\u2014EW: </p>
                    <blockquote
style="border-left: 4px solid #51b4e9;margin: 20px 0;padding: 0;">
                      <p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);margin-left: 20px;line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;"><em>A
                          fourth U.S. official, who like the others
                          spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss
                          Pentagon data, said that not all of the lost
                          Reapers were shot down. An unspecified number
                          crashed after their operators\u2019 communications
                          link to the drones failed, the official said.</em></p>
                    </blockquote>
                    <p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;">In
                      truth, the losses likely represent even more than
                      35% because the total number of drones in the
                      fleet does not necessarily mean they\u2019re all in
                      usable or flyaway shape, at least at any given
                      time. </p>
                    <p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;">Amidst
                      the total lack of military options, the US
                      continues to bide for time, plying its charade of
                      \u201ccontrolling the Strait\u201d. Ex-Congresswoman
                      Marjorie Taylor Greene claimed to have insider
                      info as to what kinds of desperate options are
                      actually now being put on the table in Trump\u2019s
                      manic war room: </p>
                    <table class="twitter-embed tweet"
                      role="presentation" width="100%" border="0"
                      cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"
                      data-component-name="TweetToDOMStatic"
style="background: rgb(255,255,255);color: rgb(54,55,55);display: flex;flex-direction: column;gap: 12px;max-width: 550px;margin: 32px auto;border: 1px solid rgb(0,0,0,.1);direction: ltr;border-radius: 12px;padding: 16px 16px 12px;font-family: system-ui,-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,'Segoe UI',Roboto,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif,'Apple Color Emoji','Segoe UI Emoji','Segoe UI Symbol';font-size: 14px;line-height: 20px;font-weight: 400;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased;text-rendering: optimizelegibility;transition: color .25scubic-bezier(.19,1,.22,1),background-color .25scubic-bezier(.19,1,.22,1),box-shadow .25scubic-bezier(.19,1,.22,1),border .25scubic-bezier(.19,1,.22,1),border-radius .25scubic-bezier(.19,1,.22,1),opacity .25scubic-bezier(.19,1,.22,1),filter .25scubic-bezier(.19,1,.22,1),stroke .25scubic-bezier(.19,1,.22,1),transform .25scubic-bezier(.19,1,.22,1),scale .25scubic-bezier(.19,1,.22,1),outline .25scubic-bezier(.19,1,.22,1);margin-bottom: 20px;margin-top: 20px">
                      <tbody>
                        <tr>
                          <td style="padding:0px;"><a
href="https://substack.com/redirect/27b55dc5-e14c-403d-a315-40e6caa7a288?j=eyJ1IjoibHZwcGIifQ.9RIwWbE6EVIB7Jy8lfazxZKfps8R18neRGMKwOiqnRM"
style="text-decoration:none;color:inherit;display:block;"
                              moz-do-not-send="true">
                              <table role="presentation" width="auto"
                                border="0" cellspacing="0"
                                cellpadding="0">
                                <tbody>
                                  <tr>
                                    <td>
                                      <table role="presentation"
                                        width="auto" border="0"
                                        cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
                                        <tbody>
                                          <tr>
                                            <td
style="vertical-align:middle;"><img
class="custom-css-email-avatar avatar-QIQ5yR"
src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!xlwg!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fpbs.substack.com%2Fprofile_images%2F1867641239685713920%2F7jTW4Eag.jpg"
alt="X avatar for @FmrRepMTG"
style="box-sizing: border-box;border: none;vertical-align: middle;-ms-interpolation-mode: bicubic;max-width: 100%;width: 40px;height: 40px;min-width: 40px;min-height: 40px;object-fit: cover;margin: 0px;display: inline;border-radius: 50%"
                                                width="40" height="40"
                                                moz-do-not-send="true"></td>
                                            <td width="12"
                                              style="min-width:12px;"></td>
                                            <td
style="vertical-align:middle;">
                                              <table role="presentation"
                                                width="auto" border="0"
                                                cellspacing="0"
                                                cellpadding="0">
                                                <tbody>
                                                  <tr>
                                                    <td>
                                                      <div
class="pencraft pc-reset line-height-20-t4M0El font-text-qe4AeH size-13-hZTUKr weight-semibold-uqA4FV reset-IxiVJZ"
style="list-style: none;color: unset;font-size: 13px;line-height: 20px;text-decoration: unset;margin: 0;font-family: system-ui,-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,'Segoe UI',Roboto,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif,'Apple Color Emoji','Segoe UI Emoji','Segoe UI Symbol';font-weight: 600;">Former
                                                        Congresswoman
                                                        Marjorie Taylor
                                                        Greene\U0001f1fa\U0001f1f8</div>
                                                    </td>
                                                  </tr>
                                                  <tr>
                                                    <td>
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class="pencraft pc-reset color-secondary-ls1g8s line-height-20-t4M0El font-text-qe4AeH size-13-hZTUKr weight-regular-mUq6Gb reset-IxiVJZ"
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class="pencraft pc-reset line-height-20-t4M0El font-text-qe4AeH size-15-Psle70 weight-regular-mUq6Gb reset-IxiVJZ text-aFN1BV"
style="list-style: none;color: unset;font-size: 15px;line-height: 20px;text-decoration: unset;margin: 0;font-family: system-ui,-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,'Segoe UI',Roboto,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif,'Apple Color Emoji','Segoe UI Emoji','Segoe UI Symbol';font-weight: 400;white-space: pre-wrap">They are discussing using nuclear weapons on Iran in strategy meetings. Yes you read that correctly. It\u2019s real. I\u2019m not speculating, I know. And it\u2019s pure evil. The last time a nuclear weapon was used was August 6th and 9th of 1945 on two cities in Japan, Hiroshima and</div>
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class="pencraft pc-reset reset-IxiVJZ"
style="list-style: none;color: unset;text-decoration: unset;margin: 0;">7:19
                                                  PM · Aug 16, 2026</span><span
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                    <p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;"><span>Well,
                        when you run out of usable munitions\u2014for both
                        attacking and</span><em> defending</em><span> </span><em>yourself</em><span>\u2014one
                        supposes that the consideration of an all out
                        nuclear option is only logical\u2014in a manner of
                        sheer desperation. Given that America\u2019s decline
                        is clearly on its final terminal arc, it would
                        almost be a kind of poetic valediction, in a
                        twisted sort of way: the country which rose to
                        \u2018superpower\u2019 prominence with the first ever use
                        of nuclear weapons in 1945 comes full circle to
                        reach its waning civilizational surrender with
                        another final nuclear send-off. </span></p>
                    <p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;">More
                      likely though, no such thing will happen, and the
                      only thing resembling nuclear fallout will be the
                      US economy, with the continuation of Trump\u2019s blind
                      intransigence on the Iranian issue. We\u2019ve now seen
                      that he is willing to stake everything on his
                      Hormuz vanity project, including the wellbeing and
                      livelihoods of all Americans. </p>
                    <p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;"><strong><a
href="https://substack.com/redirect/35f90631-a00f-4118-9920-421271b1b5a2?j=eyJ1IjoibHZwcGIifQ.9RIwWbE6EVIB7Jy8lfazxZKfps8R18neRGMKwOiqnRM"
                          style="color: #51b4e9;text-decoration: none;"
                          moz-do-not-send="true">Yesterday, he remarked
                          that the economy was doing \u201cunbelievably\u2026.from
                          the standpoint of Wall Street\u201d</a></strong><span>\u2014and
                        soon after he explained that rising gas prices
                        are a small price to pay for stopping an \u201cevil
                        nation\u201d from having nuclear weapons: </span></p>
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style="flex-grow: 1;font-size: 16px;line-height: 26px;margin-top: 0.5em;"><a
class="video-player video-player-with-background"
href="https://substack.com/redirect/9dcf3abe-e28a-46d9-9b45-831da3dc4ace?j=eyJ1IjoibHZwcGIifQ.9RIwWbE6EVIB7Jy8lfazxZKfps8R18neRGMKwOiqnRM"
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                          class="video-player-preview" width="550"
src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!DhUj!,w_1100,h_618,c_fill,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/l_play_button_usfui2,w_144,e_colorize:0/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-video.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fvideo_upload%2Fpost%2F211453510%2Fcb3cac28-950c-4bee-b27c-d590b6687d50%2Ftranscoded-00001.png"
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data-testid="video-player-static-preview-image"
style="border: none !important;vertical-align: middle;display: block;-ms-interpolation-mode: bicubic;max-width: 100%;height: auto;margin: 0 auto;top: 0;left: 0;width: 100%;max-height: 100%;background: black;cursor: pointer;object-fit: contain;position: relative;border-radius: 8px;"
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                    <p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;"><span>But
                        many \u201csmall prices\u201d can quite quickly add up to
                        one </span><em>big price</em><span>. </span></p>
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