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<title>Iran's Strategy Vindicated as US's Logistics Chain Hobbled
and Stretched by Early Strikes</title>
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style="display:none;font-size:1px;color:#333333;line-height:1px;max-height:0px;max-width:0px;opacity:0;overflow:hidden;">On
the Iranian front, the most interesting item over the transom
today are new reports vindicating something many analysts have
proposed since the beginning of the conflict.</div>
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<h1 class="post-title published title-X77sOw"
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href="https://substack.com/app-link/post?publication_id=1351274&post_id=211453510&utm_source=post-email-title&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=lvppb&token=eyJ1c2VyX2lkIjozNjc1MTU4MywicG9zdF9pZCI6MjExNDUzNTEwLCJpYXQiOjE3ODY5Mzk4ODQsImV4cCI6MTc4OTUzMTg4NCwiaXNzIjoicHViLTEzNTEyNzQiLCJzdWIiOiJwb3N0LXJlYWN0aW9uIn0.7hKFkqQwK4QZuQCeVoNR_iAfxKEktAMaMkcs7fJCIEE"
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moz-do-not-send="true">Iran's Strategy
Vindicated as US's Logistics Chain Hobbled and
Stretched by Early Strikes</a></h1>
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href="https://substack.com/@simplicius76" moz-do-not-send="true">Simplicius</a></div>
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datetime="2026-08-17T04:05:50.592Z">Aug 17, 2026</time></div>
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<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;margin-top: 0;">On
the Iranian front, the most interesting item over
the transom today are new reports vindicating
something many analysts have proposed since the
beginning of the conflict. Namely, that US\u2019s naval
problems in the theater all stemmed from Iran\u2019s
deliberate strategy of wiping out US bases in the
region, resulting in the extremely inefficient
lengthening of US supply chain logistics for war:
</p>
<div class="captioned-image-container-static"
style="font-size: 16px;line-height: 26px;margin: 32px auto;">
<figure style="width: 100%;margin: 0 auto;">
<table class="image-wrapper" width="100%"
border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"
data-component-name="Image2ToDOMStatic"
style="mso-padding-alt: 1em 0 1.6em;">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;"></td>
<td class="content" align="left"
width="528" style="text-align: center;"><a
class="image-link" target="_blank"
href="https://substack.com/redirect/ae1c5f2b-8972-48cc-b329-35ee01e86f79?j=eyJ1IjoibHZwcGIifQ.9RIwWbE6EVIB7Jy8lfazxZKfps8R18neRGMKwOiqnRM"
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alt="" width="528" height="526.68"
src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!EMEo!,w_528,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0f002d0c-c046-4a93-9398-8241138e3e37_800x798.jpeg"
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<figcaption class="image-caption"
style="box-sizing: content-box;color: rgb(119,119,119);font-size: 14px;line-height: 20px;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: -.15px;margin-top: 8px;width: 70%;padding-left: 15%;padding-right: 15%;text-align: center;"><a
href="https://substack.com/redirect/9a223bb5-d0e9-47d4-ae02-ef7c3279f7b7?j=eyJ1IjoibHZwcGIifQ.9RIwWbE6EVIB7Jy8lfazxZKfps8R18neRGMKwOiqnRM"
style="text-decoration: underline;"
moz-do-not-send="true">https://www.nytimes.com/2026/08/14/us/politics/uss-abraham-lincoln-trump-supplies-diego-garcia.html</a></figcaption></figure>
</div>
<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;">The
piece asserts that the US Navy\u2019s problems began
immediately after Iran\u2019s opening salvo of the war,
which saw the Navy\u2019s top regional logistics hub in
Bahrain go up in smoke from Iranian missiles and
drones: </p>
<blockquote
style="border-left: 4px solid #51b4e9;margin: 20px 0;padding: 0;">
<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);margin-left: 20px;line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;"><em>The
aircraft carrier U.S.S. Abraham Lincoln\u2019s
supply problems began soon after the first day
of the war, as Iranian missiles and attack
drones fell on a Navy base in Bahrain.</em></p>
<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);margin-left: 20px;line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;"><em><strong>The
Iranian attack, retaliation for the
U.S.-Israeli assault on Tehran, destroyed
much of the base. And as it went up in
smoke, so did a major logistics hub that the
Navy has relied on for decades.</strong></em></p>
<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);margin-left: 20px;line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;"><em>The
Navy needed a Plan B to continue feeding the
sailors working around the clock to keep
warplanes flying strike missions, and later to
maintain a blockade of Iran\u2019s ports.</em></p>
</blockquote>
<div class="captioned-image-container-static"
style="font-size: 16px;line-height: 26px;margin: 32px auto;">
<figure style="width: 100%;margin: 0 auto;">
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<td style="text-align: center;"></td>
<td class="content" align="left"
width="532" style="text-align: center;"><a
class="image-link" target="_blank"
href="https://substack.com/redirect/4af9c4f0-54a6-4841-8e07-44e977308439?j=eyJ1IjoibHZwcGIifQ.9RIwWbE6EVIB7Jy8lfazxZKfps8R18neRGMKwOiqnRM"
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alt="" width="532"
height="109.90882638215325"
src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!jrEi!,w_532,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2687f433-d546-45f2-af2c-ff31b080265c_1031x213.png"
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</div>
<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;">Israeli
outlets had previously covered the fact that the
Pentagon allegedly launched a \u2018secret\u2019 operation
to essentially retreat strategic assets from
within immediate range of Iranian strikes toward
\u201cprotected rear hubs\u201d, which stretched an aging
and sclerotic US military to the brink:</p>
<table class="twitter-embed tweet"
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<tbody>
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<td style="padding:0px;"><a
href="https://substack.com/redirect/6fce280b-415f-4a65-8664-c988a1b57dd6?j=eyJ1IjoibHZwcGIifQ.9RIwWbE6EVIB7Jy8lfazxZKfps8R18neRGMKwOiqnRM"
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<div
class="pencraft pc-reset line-height-20-t4M0El font-text-qe4AeH size-13-hZTUKr weight-semibold-uqA4FV reset-IxiVJZ"
style="list-style: none;color: unset;font-size: 13px;line-height: 20px;text-decoration: unset;margin: 0;font-family: system-ui,-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,'Segoe UI',Roboto,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif,'Apple Color Emoji','Segoe UI Emoji','Segoe UI Symbol';font-weight: 600;">C14
News Israel \u2022
Headlines</div>
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<div
class="pencraft pc-reset color-secondary-ls1g8s line-height-20-t4M0El font-text-qe4AeH size-13-hZTUKr weight-regular-mUq6Gb reset-IxiVJZ"
style="list-style: none;font-size: 13px;line-height: 20px;text-decoration: unset;color: rgb(119,119,119);margin: 0;font-family: system-ui,-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,'Segoe UI',Roboto,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif,'Apple Color Emoji','Segoe UI Emoji','Segoe UI Symbol';font-weight: 400;">@c14israel</div>
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<div
class="pencraft pc-reset line-height-20-t4M0El font-text-qe4AeH size-15-Psle70 weight-regular-mUq6Gb reset-IxiVJZ text-aFN1BV"
style="list-style: none;color: unset;font-size: 15px;line-height: 20px;text-decoration: unset;margin: 0;font-family: system-ui,-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,'Segoe UI',Roboto,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif,'Apple Color Emoji','Segoe UI Emoji','Segoe UI Symbol';font-weight: 400;white-space: pre-wrap">The Pentagon has secretly launched "Defensive Arc," moving strategic air assets away from frontline Middle Eastern bases near Iran to protected rear hubs. Following canceled strikes, the US shifted to an "over-the-horizon deterrence" strategy to shield forces from Iranian missile</div>
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<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;">The
NYT piece goes on: </p>
<blockquote
style="border-left: 4px solid #51b4e9;margin: 20px 0;padding: 0;">
<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);margin-left: 20px;line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;"><em><strong>The
loss of the hub in Bahrain has contributed
to a host of reported problems on carriers
supporting operations against Iran</strong><span>,
as Democratic senators raise concerns about
the Lincoln\u2019s 5,000 sailors and their nearly
nine-month deployment.</span></em></p>
</blockquote>
<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;">NYT
details how the ailing USS Lincoln will now be
replaced by the USS George Washington, hobbling
over from INDOPACOM, leaving the 7th Fleet with no
forward deployed carriers on the critical \u2018Chinese
front\u2019. </p>
<div class="captioned-image-container-static"
style="font-size: 16px;line-height: 26px;margin: 32px auto;">
<figure style="width: 100%;margin: 0 auto;">
<table class="image-wrapper" width="100%"
border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"
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style="mso-padding-alt: 1em 0 1.6em;">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;"></td>
<td class="content" align="left"
width="462" style="text-align: center;"><a
class="image-link" target="_blank"
href="https://substack.com/redirect/39e643a9-a9f0-4607-8146-56e3af52da56?j=eyJ1IjoibHZwcGIifQ.9RIwWbE6EVIB7Jy8lfazxZKfps8R18neRGMKwOiqnRM"
style="position: relative;flex-direction: column;align-items: center;padding: 0;width: auto;height: auto;border: none;text-decoration: none;display: block;margin: 0;"
moz-do-not-send="true"><img
data-attrs="{"src":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/b8e19b3e-e692-4ce9-b686-ef10622ba593_1467x599.png","srcNoWatermark":null,"fullscreen":null,"imageSize":null,"height":595,"width":1456,"resizeWidth":462,"bytes":135159,"alt":null,"title":null,"type":"image/png","href":null,"belowTheFold":true,"topImage":false,"internalRedirect":"https://simplicius76.substack.com/i/211453510?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb8e19b3e-e692-4ce9-b686-ef10622ba593_1467x599.png","isProcessing":false,"align":null,"offset":false}"
alt="" width="462"
height="188.79807692307693"
src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!8VRF!,w_462,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb8e19b3e-e692-4ce9-b686-ef10622ba593_1467x599.png"
style="border: none !important;vertical-align: middle;display: block;-ms-interpolation-mode: bicubic;height: auto;margin-bottom: 0;width: auto !important;max-width: 100% !important;margin: 0 auto;"
moz-do-not-send="true"></a></td>
<td style="text-align: center;"></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<figcaption class="image-caption"
style="box-sizing: content-box;color: rgb(119,119,119);font-size: 14px;line-height: 20px;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: -.15px;margin-top: 8px;width: 70%;padding-left: 15%;padding-right: 15%;text-align: center;"><a
href="https://substack.com/redirect/7525c3e6-e528-4bf9-a470-d44b49adae5e?j=eyJ1IjoibHZwcGIifQ.9RIwWbE6EVIB7Jy8lfazxZKfps8R18neRGMKwOiqnRM"
style="text-decoration: underline;"
moz-do-not-send="true">https://apnews.com/article/aircraft-carriers-trump-china-pacific-iran-war-87cfb838de8c13464fa3cab1840ad87d</a></figcaption></figure>
</div>
<div class="captioned-image-container-static"
style="font-size: 16px;line-height: 26px;margin: 32px auto;">
<figure style="width: 100%;margin: 0 auto;">
<table class="image-wrapper" width="100%"
border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"
data-component-name="Image2ToDOMStatic"
style="mso-padding-alt: 1em 0 1.6em;">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;"></td>
<td class="content" align="left"
width="470" style="text-align: center;"><a
class="image-link" target="_blank"
href="https://substack.com/redirect/1065c035-e519-446a-9a88-facc9a7a33f7?j=eyJ1IjoibHZwcGIifQ.9RIwWbE6EVIB7Jy8lfazxZKfps8R18neRGMKwOiqnRM"
style="position: relative;flex-direction: column;align-items: center;padding: 0;width: auto;height: auto;border: none;text-decoration: none;display: block;margin: 0;"
moz-do-not-send="true"><img
data-attrs="{"src":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/d68b0f1e-3bf8-4b0d-b2b6-ead73052d763_1106x705.png","srcNoWatermark":null,"fullscreen":null,"imageSize":null,"height":705,"width":1106,"resizeWidth":470,"bytes":184039,"alt":null,"title":null,"type":"image/png","href":null,"belowTheFold":true,"topImage":false,"internalRedirect":"https://simplicius76.substack.com/i/211453510?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8887d613-392c-4c00-bbdc-435b05509eb4_1119x705.png","isProcessing":false,"align":null,"offset":false}"
alt="" width="470"
height="299.59312839059675"
src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!awWL!,w_470,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd68b0f1e-3bf8-4b0d-b2b6-ead73052d763_1106x705.png"
style="border: none !important;vertical-align: middle;display: block;-ms-interpolation-mode: bicubic;height: auto;margin-bottom: 0;width: auto !important;max-width: 100% !important;margin: 0 auto;"
moz-do-not-send="true"></a></td>
<td style="text-align: center;"></td>
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</tbody>
</table>
</figure>
</div>
<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;">This
comes amidst reports that USS Benfold had major
\u201cengineering issues\u201d that caused it to go dead for
four days in the South China Sea:</p>
<div class="captioned-image-container-static"
style="font-size: 16px;line-height: 26px;margin: 32px auto;">
<figure style="width: 100%;margin: 0 auto;">
<table class="image-wrapper" width="100%"
border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"
data-component-name="Image2ToDOMStatic"
style="mso-padding-alt: 1em 0 1.6em;">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;"></td>
<td class="content" align="left"
width="492" style="text-align: center;"><a
class="image-link" target="_blank"
href="https://substack.com/redirect/26d94b50-14d3-4c25-afe9-5068becd4ed6?j=eyJ1IjoibHZwcGIifQ.9RIwWbE6EVIB7Jy8lfazxZKfps8R18neRGMKwOiqnRM"
style="position: relative;flex-direction: column;align-items: center;padding: 0;width: auto;height: auto;border: none;text-decoration: none;display: block;margin: 0;"
moz-do-not-send="true"><img
data-attrs="{"src":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/5d2c1e89-e198-4c08-8e5c-bb412520576a_1245x222.png","srcNoWatermark":null,"fullscreen":null,"imageSize":null,"height":222,"width":1245,"resizeWidth":492,"bytes":46985,"alt":null,"title":null,"type":"image/png","href":null,"belowTheFold":true,"topImage":false,"internalRedirect":"https://simplicius76.substack.com/i/211453510?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5d2c1e89-e198-4c08-8e5c-bb412520576a_1245x222.png","isProcessing":false,"align":null,"offset":false}"
alt="" width="492"
height="87.73012048192771"
src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!XJOF!,w_492,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5d2c1e89-e198-4c08-8e5c-bb412520576a_1245x222.png"
style="border: none !important;vertical-align: middle;display: block;-ms-interpolation-mode: bicubic;height: auto;margin-bottom: 0;width: auto !important;max-width: 100% !important;margin: 0 auto;"
moz-do-not-send="true"></a></td>
<td style="text-align: center;"></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<figcaption class="image-caption"
style="box-sizing: content-box;color: rgb(119,119,119);font-size: 14px;line-height: 20px;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: -.15px;margin-top: 8px;width: 70%;padding-left: 15%;padding-right: 15%;text-align: center;"><a
href="https://substack.com/redirect/db7ed668-f8c0-4069-8e77-b27442ff65ec?j=eyJ1IjoibHZwcGIifQ.9RIwWbE6EVIB7Jy8lfazxZKfps8R18neRGMKwOiqnRM"
style="text-decoration: underline;"
moz-do-not-send="true">https://news.usni.org/2026/08/14/uss-benfold-was-stalled-in-the-south-china-sea-for-four-days-after-engineering-casualty</a></figcaption></figure>
</div>
<blockquote
style="border-left: 4px solid #51b4e9;margin: 20px 0;padding: 0;">
<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);margin-left: 20px;line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;"><em><strong>Guided-missile
destroyer USS Benfold (DDG-65) spent four
days in the South China Sea without power
after an engineering failure, USNI News has
learned.</strong></em></p>
<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);margin-left: 20px;line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;"><em>Benfold
suffered the engineering casualty resulting in
a loss of power last month, Cmdr. Matthew
Comer, spokesperson with U.S. 7th Fleet, told
USNI News in a statement.</em></p>
<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);margin-left: 20px;line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;"><em><strong>The
loss of power meant sailors were without
galley services, toilets and air
conditioning. Potable water was also
affected, Comer said.</strong><span> He did
not respond to a question about how sailors
handled waste.</span></em></p>
</blockquote>
<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;">Not
far away, another US Arleigh Burke destroyer\u2014some
having identified it as DDG-74, though it isn\u2019t
fully confirmed\u2014was spotted looking in rough
shape, reportedly somewhere near Japan:</p>
<div
class="video-player-with-background is-static video-player-wrapper"
role="region" aria-label="Video player"
style="flex-grow: 1;font-size: 16px;line-height: 26px;margin-top: 0.5em;"><a
class="video-player video-player-with-background"
href="https://substack.com/redirect/f62ce507-3599-419c-8869-46650f99ddaa?j=eyJ1IjoibHZwcGIifQ.9RIwWbE6EVIB7Jy8lfazxZKfps8R18neRGMKwOiqnRM"
style="position: relative;display: block;width: 100%;cursor: pointer;background-color: rgb(0,0,0);height: auto;border-radius: 8px;padding-bottom: 0"
moz-do-not-send="true"><img
class="video-player-preview" width="550"
src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!NhPK!,w_1100,h_1100,c_pad,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/l_play_button_usfui2,w_144,e_colorize:0/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-video.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fvideo_upload%2Fpost%2F211453510%2F3e93485d-ad17-454c-bca3-19d60bcaee30%2Ftranscoded-00001.png"
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data-testid="video-player-static-preview-image"
style="border: none !important;vertical-align: middle;display: block;-ms-interpolation-mode: bicubic;max-width: 100%;height: auto;margin: 0 auto;top: 0;left: 0;width: 100%;max-height: 100%;background: black;cursor: pointer;object-fit: contain;position: relative;border-radius: 8px;"
moz-do-not-send="true"></a></div>
<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;">The
state of the US Navy has shocked observers who
were not attuned to such a rapid decline in the
state of things, particularly amidst a major
conflict wherein the Navy was meant to play the
key sustaining role. </p>
<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;">Now
WaPo reports that US\u2019s Gulf allies are again
reconsidering the deployment of US bases on their
territory in frustration for Trump\u2019s erratic and
amateurish handling of the Iran conflict: </p>
<div class="captioned-image-container-static"
style="font-size: 16px;line-height: 26px;margin: 32px auto;">
<figure style="width: 100%;margin: 0 auto;">
<table class="image-wrapper" width="100%"
border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"
data-component-name="Image2ToDOMStatic"
style="mso-padding-alt: 1em 0 1.6em;">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;"></td>
<td class="content" align="left"
width="508" style="text-align: center;"><a
class="image-link" target="_blank"
href="https://substack.com/redirect/7f8cd0f5-32ee-4a07-8299-3cf283efe31d?j=eyJ1IjoibHZwcGIifQ.9RIwWbE6EVIB7Jy8lfazxZKfps8R18neRGMKwOiqnRM"
style="position: relative;flex-direction: column;align-items: center;padding: 0;width: auto;height: auto;border: none;text-decoration: none;display: block;margin: 0;"
moz-do-not-send="true"><img
data-attrs="{"src":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/f7777d4e-3660-400e-aca8-15bc0ea1250c_748x263.jpeg","srcNoWatermark":null,"fullscreen":null,"imageSize":null,"height":263,"width":748,"resizeWidth":508,"bytes":30282,"alt":null,"title":null,"type":"image/jpeg","href":null,"belowTheFold":true,"topImage":false,"internalRedirect":"https://simplicius76.substack.com/i/211453510?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff7777d4e-3660-400e-aca8-15bc0ea1250c_748x263.jpeg","isProcessing":false,"align":null,"offset":false}"
alt="" width="508"
height="178.6149732620321"
src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!crIm!,w_508,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff7777d4e-3660-400e-aca8-15bc0ea1250c_748x263.jpeg"
style="border: none !important;vertical-align: middle;display: block;-ms-interpolation-mode: bicubic;height: auto;margin-bottom: 0;width: auto !important;max-width: 100% !important;margin: 0 auto;"
moz-do-not-send="true"></a></td>
<td style="text-align: center;"></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<figcaption class="image-caption"
style="box-sizing: content-box;color: rgb(119,119,119);font-size: 14px;line-height: 20px;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: -.15px;margin-top: 8px;width: 70%;padding-left: 15%;padding-right: 15%;text-align: center;"><a
href="https://substack.com/redirect/6189cf71-2205-4855-a9d2-67cdae792ea9?j=eyJ1IjoibHZwcGIifQ.9RIwWbE6EVIB7Jy8lfazxZKfps8R18neRGMKwOiqnRM"
style="text-decoration: underline;"
moz-do-not-send="true">https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2026/08/15/frustration-with-trump-grows-among-us-persian-gulf-allies-officials-say/</a></figcaption></figure>
</div>
<blockquote
style="border-left: 4px solid #51b4e9;margin: 20px 0;padding: 0;">
<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);margin-left: 20px;line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;"><em><strong>Some
have begun to debate the utility of
continuing to host large U.S. military
installations on their territory.</strong></em></p>
<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);margin-left: 20px;line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;"><em>\u201cTrump
started this war,\u201d one Gulf official said,
\u201cand we are paying the price.\u201d Like others in
this article, he spoke on the condition of
anonymity to discuss the sensitive subject.
Anger with the United States, the official
said, was at its highest point since the U.S.
and Israel attacked Iran in February.</em></p>
<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);margin-left: 20px;line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;"><em><span>The
Gulf states continue to rely on Washington
as a close security partner and major arms
supplier, and Qatar and Bahrain host large
U.S. bases. </span><strong><span>But the
frustration is leading some states to
consider new arrangements. These dynamics
are unlikely in the near term to
significantly reorder the region, </span><span>analysts
say</span><span>, but some countries have
begun to explore their options.</span></strong></em></p>
</blockquote>
<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;"><span>We
can conclude that Iran\u2019s strategy has worked:
Take out US\u2019s eyes and ears in the region by
targeting radar systems, saturate air
defenses\u2014whose stocks can\u2019t be regenerated\u2014with
cheap drones and throwaway first-gen ballistic
missiles; then when the battlefield has been
sufficiently shaped, begin throwing in the most
advanced and accurate ballistic missiles to hit
the actual logistics nodes, base C2 HQs, etc.,
to cause US to scramble its entire tail out as
far out of range as possible. This then strains
the deteriorating logistics chain to the point
of breaking, as we\u2019re seeing now </span><strong><a
href="https://substack.com/redirect/14a88c34-d579-417b-b506-217ad8df1698?j=eyJ1IjoibHZwcGIifQ.9RIwWbE6EVIB7Jy8lfazxZKfps8R18neRGMKwOiqnRM"
style="color: #51b4e9;text-decoration: none;"
moz-do-not-send="true">with the striking
deterioration of morale</a></strong><span>. </span></p>
<div class="captioned-image-container-static"
style="font-size: 16px;line-height: 26px;margin: 32px auto;">
<figure style="width: 100%;margin: 0 auto;">
<table class="image-wrapper" width="100%"
border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"
data-component-name="Image2ToDOMStatic"
style="mso-padding-alt: 1em 0 1.6em;">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;"></td>
<td class="content" align="left"
width="1456" style="text-align: center;"><a
class="image-link" target="_blank"
href="https://substack.com/redirect/1325fe27-8288-4bb5-918d-54e2abfba71f?j=eyJ1IjoibHZwcGIifQ.9RIwWbE6EVIB7Jy8lfazxZKfps8R18neRGMKwOiqnRM"
style="position: relative;flex-direction: column;align-items: center;padding: 0;width: auto;height: auto;border: none;text-decoration: none;display: block;margin: 0;"
moz-do-not-send="true"><img
class="wide-image"
data-attrs="{"src":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/c42a875f-5f1e-435e-94af-949f3d7d614c_2197x858.jpeg","srcNoWatermark":null,"fullscreen":null,"imageSize":null,"height":569,"width":1456,"resizeWidth":null,"bytes":376933,"alt":null,"title":null,"type":"image/jpeg","href":null,"belowTheFold":true,"topImage":false,"internalRedirect":"https://simplicius76.substack.com/i/211453510?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc42a875f-5f1e-435e-94af-949f3d7d614c_2197x858.jpeg","isProcessing":false,"align":null,"offset":false}"
alt="" width="550"
height="214.9381868131868"
src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!1pWs!,w_1100,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc42a875f-5f1e-435e-94af-949f3d7d614c_2197x858.jpeg"
style="border: none !important;vertical-align: middle;display: block;-ms-interpolation-mode: bicubic;height: auto;margin-bottom: 0;width: auto !important;max-width: 100% !important;margin: 0 auto;"
moz-do-not-send="true"></a></td>
<td style="text-align: center;"></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<figcaption class="image-caption"
style="box-sizing: content-box;color: rgb(119,119,119);font-size: 14px;line-height: 20px;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: -.15px;margin-top: 8px;width: 70%;padding-left: 15%;padding-right: 15%;text-align: center;"><a
href="https://substack.com/redirect/67af7059-4f91-436c-be54-6c957dc175e3?j=eyJ1IjoibHZwcGIifQ.9RIwWbE6EVIB7Jy8lfazxZKfps8R18neRGMKwOiqnRM"
style="text-decoration: underline;"
moz-do-not-send="true">https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2026/08/13/us-military-has-lost-roughly-25-its-reaper-drones-iran-war-depletes-arsenal/</a></figcaption></figure>
</div>
<blockquote
style="border-left: 4px solid #51b4e9;margin: 20px 0;padding: 0;">
<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);margin-left: 20px;line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;"><em>The
U.S. military has lost at least 45 MQ-9 Reaper
drones during the war with Iran, or roughly 25
percent of its fleet, according to three U.S.
officials familiar with the matter.</em></p>
</blockquote>
<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;">As
noted above, WaPo \u201cconfirms\u201d the US lost 45
Reapers, equivalent to 25% of the entire drone
fleet. Some have added that the Houthis had
already taken out an additional 10% or so, which
would likely edge it closer toward 35% total lost
in the past year or two.</p>
<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;">Interestingly,
WaPo reports not all were shot down but many
apparently fell victim to Iran\u2019s\u2014perhaps
Russian-sourced\u2014EW: </p>
<blockquote
style="border-left: 4px solid #51b4e9;margin: 20px 0;padding: 0;">
<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);margin-left: 20px;line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;"><em>A
fourth U.S. official, who like the others
spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss
Pentagon data, said that not all of the lost
Reapers were shot down. An unspecified number
crashed after their operators\u2019 communications
link to the drones failed, the official said.</em></p>
</blockquote>
<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;">In
truth, the losses likely represent even more than
35% because the total number of drones in the
fleet does not necessarily mean they\u2019re all in
usable or flyaway shape, at least at any given
time. </p>
<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;">Amidst
the total lack of military options, the US
continues to bide for time, plying its charade of
\u201ccontrolling the Strait\u201d. Ex-Congresswoman
Marjorie Taylor Greene claimed to have insider
info as to what kinds of desperate options are
actually now being put on the table in Trump\u2019s
manic war room: </p>
<table class="twitter-embed tweet"
role="presentation" width="100%" border="0"
cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"
data-component-name="TweetToDOMStatic"
style="background: rgb(255,255,255);color: rgb(54,55,55);display: flex;flex-direction: column;gap: 12px;max-width: 550px;margin: 32px auto;border: 1px solid rgb(0,0,0,.1);direction: ltr;border-radius: 12px;padding: 16px 16px 12px;font-family: system-ui,-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,'Segoe UI',Roboto,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif,'Apple Color Emoji','Segoe UI Emoji','Segoe UI Symbol';font-size: 14px;line-height: 20px;font-weight: 400;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased;text-rendering: optimizelegibility;transition: color .25scubic-bezier(.19,1,.22,1),background-color .25scubic-bezier(.19,1,.22,1),box-shadow .25scubic-bezier(.19,1,.22,1),border .25scubic-bezier(.19,1,.22,1),border-radius .25scubic-bezier(.19,1,.22,1),opacity .25scubic-bezier(.19,1,.22,1),filter .25scubic-bezier(.19,1,.22,1),stroke .25scubic-bezier(.19,1,.22,1),transform .25scubic-bezier(.19,1,.22,1),scale .25scubic-bezier(.19,1,.22,1),outline .25scubic-bezier(.19,1,.22,1);margin-bottom: 20px;margin-top: 20px">
<tbody>
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<td style="padding:0px;"><a
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class="pencraft pc-reset line-height-20-t4M0El font-text-qe4AeH size-15-Psle70 weight-regular-mUq6Gb reset-IxiVJZ text-aFN1BV"
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class="pencraft pc-reset reset-IxiVJZ"
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PM · Aug 16, 2026</span><span
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<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;"><span>Well,
when you run out of usable munitions\u2014for both
attacking and</span><em> defending</em><span> </span><em>yourself</em><span>\u2014one
supposes that the consideration of an all out
nuclear option is only logical\u2014in a manner of
sheer desperation. Given that America\u2019s decline
is clearly on its final terminal arc, it would
almost be a kind of poetic valediction, in a
twisted sort of way: the country which rose to
\u2018superpower\u2019 prominence with the first ever use
of nuclear weapons in 1945 comes full circle to
reach its waning civilizational surrender with
another final nuclear send-off. </span></p>
<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;">More
likely though, no such thing will happen, and the
only thing resembling nuclear fallout will be the
US economy, with the continuation of Trump\u2019s blind
intransigence on the Iranian issue. We\u2019ve now seen
that he is willing to stake everything on his
Hormuz vanity project, including the wellbeing and
livelihoods of all Americans. </p>
<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;"><strong><a
href="https://substack.com/redirect/35f90631-a00f-4118-9920-421271b1b5a2?j=eyJ1IjoibHZwcGIifQ.9RIwWbE6EVIB7Jy8lfazxZKfps8R18neRGMKwOiqnRM"
style="color: #51b4e9;text-decoration: none;"
moz-do-not-send="true">Yesterday, he remarked
that the economy was doing \u201cunbelievably\u2026.from
the standpoint of Wall Street\u201d</a></strong><span>\u2014and
soon after he explained that rising gas prices
are a small price to pay for stopping an \u201cevil
nation\u201d from having nuclear weapons: </span></p>
<div
class="video-player-with-background is-static video-player-wrapper"
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<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;"><span>But
many \u201csmall prices\u201d can quite quickly add up to
one </span><em>big price</em><span>. </span></p>
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