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<div class="gmail-inner-article-top"><h1 class="gmail-">Riyadh returns to force as the regional order slips beyond its control</h1><p class="gmail-">Saudi
Arabia's renewed military posture in Iraq and Yemen exposes the limits
of its de-escalation strategy and risks dragging the kingdom deeper into
a US-led regional war.</p><div class="gmail-another-name"><p><a href="https://thecradle.co/authors/abbas-al-zein" style="color:rgb(164,4,4)">Abbas al-Zein</a></p></div><div class="gmail-another-name" style="margin-top:16px"><p><span style="color:rgb(84,88,94)">AUG 5, 2026 - </span><font size="1"><a href="https://thecradle.co/articles/riyadh-returns-to-force-as-the-regional-order-slips-beyond-its-control">https://thecradle.co/articles/riyadh-returns-to-force-as-the-regional-order-slips-beyond-its-control</a></font></p></div></div><div class="gmail-inner-article-img"><img src="https://thecradle-main.oss-eu-central-1.aliyuncs.com/public/articles/37e30e0c-90d8-11f1-bdbc-00163e02c055.jpeg" alt="" width="437" height="207" style="margin-right: 0px;"><span>Photo Credit: The Cradle</span></div><div class="gmail-inner-article-content"><div class="gmail-row"><div class="gmail-col-md-8 gmail-col-sm-7"><div class="gmail-article-content"><span class="gmail-article-body"><p style="text-align:justify"><span style="background-color:transparent">For
several years, Saudi Arabia sought to recast its regional role through
de-escalation, diplomatic accommodation, and economic statecraft. That
strategy now faces its sharpest test. Riyadh is again reaching for
military pressure to redraw the region\u2019s rules of engagement, even as
the wars surrounding it become harder to contain.</span></p><p style="text-align:justify"><span style="background-color:transparent">After stepping back from open confrontation in Yemen and </span><a href="https://thecradle.co/articles/exclusive-the-hidden-security-clauses-of-the-iran-saudi-deal"><span style="background-color:transparent">repairing relations</span></a><span style="background-color:transparent">
with several regional powers, the kingdom presented itself as an actor
moving beyond direct wars toward the management of influence through
politics, economics, and diplomacy. </span></p><p style="text-align:justify"><span style="background-color:transparent">Recent
developments, however, raise the possibility that this phase is
beginning to recede \u2013 and that Riyadh is returning to calculations whose
results it has already tested over the past decade.</span></p><p style="text-align:justify"><span style="background-color:transparent"><strong>Deterrence or anxiety?</strong></span></p><p style="text-align:justify"><span style="background-color:transparent">The
US-Israeli war on Iran and the regional shifts it unleashed may have
convinced Saudi Arabia that the region has entered a different phase,
one in which the margin for using force has widened. Riyadh may see an
opportunity to rebuild deterrence equations eroded over recent years,
particularly if it believes its adversaries emerged from the
confrontation exhausted or that the balance of power has begun tilting
toward the camp to which it belongs.</span></p><p style="text-align:justify"><span style="background-color:transparent">But
there is another reading. Saudi Arabia may be moving toward security
options because it senses that regional changes are not unfolding in its
favor. Riyadh did </span><a href="https://thecradle.co/articles/us-bases-in-the-persian-gulf-security-shield-or-escalation-trigger"><span style="background-color:transparent">not remain insulated</span></a><span style="background-color:transparent">
from the war on Iran. Its territory hosts US military facilities, while
its energy infrastructure and other strategic interests became
targets. </span></p><p style="text-align:justify"><span style="background-color:transparent">As
a result, every shift in the regional balance has been reflected
directly on the kingdom, whether to its benefit or at its expense. The
use of force may therefore represent an attempt to avoid losing ground
while those balances are being recast, rather than confidence in the
outcome.</span></p><p><span style="background-color:transparent">An </span><a href="https://www.chathamhouse.org/2026/05/how-iran-war-reshaping-saudi-strategy-hormuz-and-houthis-uaes-opec-exit"><span style="background-color:transparent">analysis</span></a><span style="background-color:transparent">
published by Chatham House in May concluded that the war had forced
Saudi Arabia to reassess its security strategy after the closure of the
Strait of Hormuz exposed a critical vulnerability in its trade and
energy routes. </span></p><p><span style="background-color:transparent">The
kingdom\u2019s priority remains protecting Vision 2030 and avoiding
conflicts that would drain the resources required for its economic
transformation. A return to security options, particularly in the </span><a href="https://thecradle.co/articles/yemen-closes-the-other-gate-bab-al-mandab-turns-against-riyadh"><span style="background-color:transparent">Red Sea</span></a><span style="background-color:transparent">, may therefore stem more from anxiety over regional shifts than from an environment that Riyadh considers favorable.</span></p><p style="text-align:justify"><span style="background-color:transparent">This
is what distinguishes today\u2019s resort to force from that of a decade
ago. Saudi Arabia then acted from the conviction that it could impose
new realities and achieve defined objectives. Today, the same tools may
reflect confusion over the direction of regional change and a fear that
waiting will allow new facts to emerge that will later be difficult to
reverse.</span></p><p style="text-align:justify"><span style="background-color:transparent">The
danger is that this choice places Saudi Arabia at the center of a US
project whose outcome remains undecided. Washington has not established
stable regional equations or closed any of the region\u2019s theaters of
conflict, while the project\u2019s political and security costs continue to
rise. </span></p><p style="text-align:justify"><span style="background-color:transparent">If
Riyadh proceeds on the assumption that this path will impose a new
regional order, it may find itself reusing failed tools under more
complex conditions, at a moment when the destination of the region
remains unclear.</span></p><p style="text-align:justify"><span style="background-color:transparent">Nor
does military coordination necessarily provide the kingdom with control
over the pace or scope of escalation. Washington\u2019s priorities are
shaped by its confrontation with Iran, while Riyadh must live with the
immediate consequences across the Gulf, the Red Sea, and its own
borderlands. </span></p><p style="text-align:justify"><span style="background-color:transparent">The
two may share targets without sharing the same tolerance for a
prolonged war. That difference becomes decisive once retaliation begins
and the initiative passes to actors outside either capital\u2019s control.</span></p><p style="text-align:justify"><span style="background-color:transparent"><strong>Iraq tests Riyadh\u2019s new role</strong></span></p><p style="text-align:justify"><span style="background-color:transparent">The recent </span><a href="https://thecradle.co/articles/us-saudi-strikes-in-iraq-leave-dozens-of-casualties-across-multiple-pmu-sites"><span style="background-color:transparent">joint US-Saudi strikes in Iraq</span></a><span style="background-color:transparent">
open a question far wider than their stated military objectives. They
suggest that Riyadh is approaching the Iraqi arena differently and is
prepared to pursue immediate security options after years of presenting
itself as a state that preferred to manage disputes through political
engagement and regional openness.</span></p><p style="text-align:justify"><span style="background-color:transparent">The
issue is not only Iraq, but the role Saudi Arabia now accepts for
itself. Riyadh has sought to establish the kingdom as an Arab center of
gravity capable of rallying or influencing regional positions, giving it
broad political room to maneuver in crises. </span></p><p style="text-align:justify"><span style="background-color:transparent">Its
participation in joint military action against targets in an Arab
country raises questions about whether it is redefining that role \u2013 from
an Arab partner into a participant in a Washington-led security
project.</span></p><p><span style="background-color:transparent">The
escalation is closely connected to the war on Iran and the alignments it
imposed, but the Iraqi theater cannot be reduced to that dimension.
Saudi Arabia said attacks launched from Iraq had targeted critical
infrastructure and Riyadh. </span></p><p><span style="background-color:transparent">Baghdad, however, said that </span><a href="https://thecradle.co/articles/baghdad-says-no-evidence-attacks-on-saudi-arabia-launched-from-iraqi-territory"><span style="background-color:transparent">no evidence had been provided</span></a><span style="background-color:transparent"> to substantiate the allegation, while the Ansarallah-aligned Yemeni Armed Forces (YAF) </span><a href="https://t.me/thecradlemedia/65086"><span style="background-color:transparent">claimed responsibility</span></a><span style="background-color:transparent">
for drone attacks on Saudi interests. Even if Riyadh viewed the Iraqi
factions as responsible, why did it choose to respond through a joint
operation with the US?</span></p><p style="text-align:justify"><span style="background-color:transparent">That
decision carries its own political significance. It places the handling
of an Arab file within a broader US security framework and suggests
that coordination with Washington has expanded beyond confronting Iran
into the military management of Arab arenas. </span></p><p style="text-align:justify"><span style="background-color:transparent">Baghdad\u2019s condemnation also demonstrates the </span><a href="https://thecradle.co/articles/iraqi-pm-cancels-ksa-visit-as-resistance-factions-vow-revenge-for-us-saudi-strikes"><span style="background-color:transparent">diplomatic cost</span></a><span style="background-color:transparent">.
Saudi engagement with Iraq had expanded in recent years through
investment, border links, and political outreach intended to draw the
country closer to its Arab surroundings. </span></p><p style="text-align:justify"><span style="background-color:transparent">Military
action threatens to weaken that accumulated influence and strengthen
the very factions Riyadh seeks to contain by allowing them to present
themselves as defenders of Iraqi sovereignty. A tactical strike can
therefore produce the opposite strategic effect.</span></p><p><span style="background-color:transparent"><i>The Guardian</i> </span><a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/jul/29/us-saudi-strikes-in-iraq-have-pushed-the-region-into-uncharted-territory-analysts-warn"><span style="background-color:transparent">reported</span></a><span style="background-color:transparent">
that the strikes killed at least 20 members of Iraq\u2019s Popular
Mobilization Units (PMU), an official Iraqi state security body, and
cited analysts who described Riyadh\u2019s acknowledged participation as a
major shift that had pushed the region into \u201cuncharted territory.\u201d </span></p><p><span style="background-color:transparent">Placed
in the context of Saudi policy, the operation suggests that Riyadh is
redefining its regional role through deeper integration into the US-led
security architecture. It also raises questions about the limits of
independent Saudi decision-making as the kingdom\u2019s involvement in
Washington\u2019s regional project grows.</span></p><p style="text-align:justify"><span style="background-color:transparent">The
present course could prove still more dangerous if it is repeated.
During the 2003 US invasion of Iraq, Saudi Arabia publicly distanced
itself from the war while quietly facilitating some US operations, even
as it faced </span><a href="https://thecradle.co/articles/made-in-america-the-isis-conquest-of-mosul"><span style="background-color:transparent">accusations</span></a><span style="background-color:transparent">
of funding and fueling extremist ideology that contributed to the rise
of ISIS in Iraq. Today it has openly participated in strikes coordinated
with Washington. </span></p><p style="text-align:justify"><span style="background-color:transparent">This
path could gradually turn the kingdom into a direct combatant in
inter-Arab and regional conflicts, rather than a power that manages
balances or tries to influence them from outside. Each new operation
increases the likelihood of confrontation with other Arab actors and may
open fronts that were not part of Riyadh\u2019s original calculations.</span></p><p style="text-align:justify"><span style="background-color:transparent"></span></p><div class="gmail-columns-box gmail-web-view-poll"><div class="gmail-columns-section"><div class="gmail-columns-row"><div class="gmail-poll-card"><div class="gmail-options"><div><p style="float:right;margin-top:23px;font-weight:600;font-size:0.875rem;display:block;color:var(--cdl-secondary)"><br></p></div></div></div></div></div></div><p></p><p style="text-align:justify"><span style="background-color:transparent"><strong>Yemen\u2019s unfinished war</strong></span></p><p style="text-align:justify"><span style="background-color:transparent">In
Yemen, a return to the military option carries a different meaning.
Saudi Arabia would not be embarking on a new experiment, but returning
to one it knows well \u2013 including the forms of resistance its
intervention produced throughout the war. </span></p><p style="text-align:justify"><span style="background-color:transparent">If
Riyadh calculates that current regional shifts offer an opportunity to
impose new conditions on the Sanaa government, it is also assuming that
the other side will now submit to pressure it withstood for years. </span><a href="https://thecradle.co/articles/saudi-arabia-failed-to-defeat-yemeni-resistance-ansarallah-chief"><span style="background-color:transparent">Yemen\u2019s own experience</span></a><span style="background-color:transparent"> offers little support for that assumption.</span></p><p style="text-align:justify"><span style="background-color:transparent">Sanaa
reads the regional moment differently. It views the escalation as an
opportunity to pursue a specific objective: lifting the blockade. It
therefore treats military pressure as a means of increasing pressure on
Saudi Arabia itself. </span></p><p style="text-align:justify"><span style="background-color:transparent">Both
sides are responding to the same regional shifts, but Sanaa also draws
on its record of frustrating Saudi objectives. The previous war\u2019s
consequences were not confined to Yemen. They reached </span><a href="https://thecradle.co/articles/buckle-up-yemen-is-about-to-deliver-a-saudi-lesson"><span style="background-color:transparent">deep into the kingdom</span></a><span style="background-color:transparent">,
affecting its security, economy, and oil infrastructure as the YAF
demonstrated its ability to expand the confrontation across the border.</span></p><p><span style="background-color:transparent">If
Saudi Arabia believes regional developments allow it to impose its
terms, Sanaa believes the same developments can force an end to the
blockade. July events reflected the equation. After the Sanaa airport
strike \u2013 </span><a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/yemeni-military-targets-sanaa-airport-runway-stop-iranian-plane-landing-defence-2026-07-13/"><span style="background-color:transparent">claimed by Yemen\u2019s Saudi-backed government</span></a><span style="background-color:transparent">
in Aden, but blamed on Riyadh by Sanaa \u2013 the YAF targeted Abha
International Airport with missiles and drones. The Ansarallah-led army
later </span><a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/20/yemens-houthis-declare-naval-blockade-of-saudi-arabia-what-to-know"><span style="background-color:transparent">declared a naval blockade of Saudi Arabia</span></a><span style="background-color:transparent">, invoking a siege-for-siege equation.</span></p><p style="text-align:justify"><span style="background-color:transparent">The
exchange served as a reminder that renewed escalation will reopen
direct pressure on the kingdom. Riyadh must therefore reckon with a cost
different from the one it may imagine. Its forces and allies can strike
Yemen, but they cannot assume that the consequences will remain within
Yemeni territory, or that the economic arteries upon which Saudi
strategy depends will be spared.</span></p><p style="text-align:justify"><span style="background-color:transparent">The
Red Sea gives this confrontation a reach that the earlier border war
did not possess to the same degree. Saudi Arabia has invested heavily in
western ports and alternative export routes precisely because the </span><a href="https://thecradle.co/articles/no-route-around-hormuz-why-west-asias-pipeline-alternatives-fall-short"><span style="background-color:transparent">Hormuz crisis</span></a><span style="background-color:transparent">
exposed its dependence on vulnerable chokepoints. An escalating
struggle with Sanaa could place that attempted escape route under
pressure as well, leaving the kingdom </span><a href="https://thecradle.co/articles-id/38950"><span style="background-color:transparent">exposed on both</span></a><span style="background-color:transparent"> of its maritime flanks.</span></p><p style="text-align:justify"><span style="background-color:transparent"><strong>A wager without a settled endgame</strong></span></p><p style="text-align:justify"><span style="background-color:transparent">If
Saudi Arabia is betting that expanded military pressure will allow it
to reimpose favorable equations, it cannot ignore that its adversaries
are betting on the same regional shifts to achieve opposing goals.
Riyadh may believe current developments permit it to regain the
initiative, but the realities produced by the war on Iran show that its
adversaries are also seeking to exploit the moment and impose new facts.</span></p><p style="text-align:justify"><span style="background-color:transparent">The
war has neither determined the region\u2019s future nor produced a stable
balance of power upon which any state can safely build. Instead, it
opened a phase that changes by the day, with every party attempting to
turn the disorder to its advantage. </span></p><p style="text-align:justify"><span style="background-color:transparent">Any
new Saudi escalation may prompt its adversaries to expand their own
instruments of pressure against economic interests, energy
infrastructure, or sea lanes. Recent experience has shown that such
tools can shape the course of a conflict as decisively as conventional
military operations.</span></p><p style="text-align:justify"><span style="background-color:transparent">Opening
another front would therefore carry consequences for the economy,
energy, shipping, and internal security \u2013 precisely the areas Saudi
Arabia is most determined to shield. Its development model depends not
only on military deterrence but on predictable trade, investor
confidence, secure infrastructure, and the image of a stable state
capable of insulating itself from the region\u2019s wars.</span></p><p style="text-align:justify"><span style="background-color:transparent">Each new front leaves Saudi Arabia\u2019s economic transformation hostage to military outcomes that Riyadh cannot control.</span></p><p><span style="background-color:transparent">US
President Donald Trump said he held off on a planned large-scale attack
on Iran after appeals from Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MbS)
and the leaders of Qatar and the UAE, who requested more time for
diplomacy. AP </span><a href="https://apnews.com/article/f4c225f6667d9fd171616304701825a0"><span style="background-color:transparent">reported</span></a><span style="background-color:transparent">
that Gulf leaders\u2019 concerns weighed heavily in his decision. Yet Saudi
Arabia\u2019s own military turn risks undermining the de-escalation it urged
Washington to pursue.</span></p><p><span style="background-color:transparent">Riyadh
is returning to force in a geopolitical environment far more
interconnected than the one it confronted a decade ago. Iraq is no
longer separate from Yemen or Iran; Yemen is no longer isolated from the
broader war; and the confrontation with Tehran has shown how quickly
fire crosses nominal boundaries. </span></p><p><span style="background-color:transparent">By
joining the US in striking Iraq while edging back toward war in Yemen,
Saudi Arabia risks becoming not the regional stabilizer it sought to
portray, but another front in a conflict too expansive for any one
capital to control \u2013 and too costly for the </span><a href="https://thecradle.co/articles/saudi-arabia-halts-payments-to-western-consulting-firms-as-us-war-on-iran-aggravates-cash-crunch"><span style="background-color:transparent">kingdom\u2019s ambitions</span></a><span style="background-color:transparent"> to absorb.</span></p></span></div></div></div></div>
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