<!DOCTYPE html>
<html>
<head>
<meta http-equiv="content-type" content="text/html; charset=UTF-8">
</head>
<body>
<div dir="ltr">
<div class="gmail-inner-article-top">
<h1 class="gmail-">There was never going to be a phase two, the
ceasefire was the strategy</h1>
<p class="gmail-">Ceasefires, like negotiations, have become
another battlefield where Tel Aviv stalls and Washington
scripts the outcome. Gaza\u2019s future is already being written,
and not by Palestinians.</p>
<div class="gmail-another-name">
<p><a href="https://thecradle.co/authors/mohammad-al-ayoubi"
style="color:rgb(164,4,4)" moz-do-not-send="true">Mohammad
al-Ayoubi</a></p>
</div>
<div class="gmail-another-name" style="margin-top:16px">
<p><span style="color:rgb(84,88,94)">NOV 20, 2025 -<font
size="1"> </font></span><font size="1"><a
href="https://thecradle.co/articles/there-was-never-going-to-be-a-phase-two-the-ceasefire-was-the-strategy"
moz-do-not-send="true" class="moz-txt-link-freetext">https://thecradle.co/articles/there-was-never-going-to-be-a-phase-two-the-ceasefire-was-the-strategy</a></font></p>
</div>
</div>
<div class="gmail-inner-article-img"><img
src="https://thecradle-main.oss-eu-central-1.aliyuncs.com/public/articles/bed753d8-c64d-11f0-a685-00163e02c055.jpeg"
alt="" width="408" height="193" style="margin-right: 0px;"
moz-do-not-send="true"><span><br>
</span></div>
<div class="gmail-inner-article-img"><span>Photo Credit: The
Cradle</span></div>
<div class="gmail-inner-article-content">
<div class="gmail-row">
<div class="gmail-col-md-8 gmail-col-sm-7">
<div class="gmail-article-content"><span
class="gmail-article-body">
<p><span style="background-color:transparent">The </span><a
href="https://thecradle.co/articles/hamas-israel-agree-to-first-phase-of-gaza-ceasefire-under-trump-plan"
moz-do-not-send="true"><span
style="background-color:transparent">first phase</span></a><span
style="background-color:transparent"> of the
ceasefire agreement was never meant to be an end,
only a beginning. For Palestinians, it offered a
rare reprieve from the slaughter, a chance to
recover bodies, reconnect families, and push back
against the machinery of genocide. </span></p>
<p><span style="background-color:transparent">But the
moment the resistance fulfilled its commitments by
delivering captives, returning remains, and
upholding every clause, the mask slipped. Tel Aviv\u2019s
intent was never to advance to a </span><a
href="https://thecradle.co/articles-id/33870"
moz-do-not-send="true"><span
style="background-color:transparent">second phase</span></a><span
style="background-color:transparent">, but to
extract what it could, then stall, shift the
goalposts, and reassert control through other
means. </span></p>
<p><span style="background-color:transparent"><strong>The
pause-and-dominate strategy</strong></span></p>
<p><span style="background-color:transparent">The
ceasefire, brokered under the guise of relief, was
engineered by Tel Aviv and Washington as a tool to </span><a
href="https://thecradle.co/articles/no-rule-without-resistance-gazas-post-war-future-and-the-collapse-of-foreign-illusions"
moz-do-not-send="true"><span
style="background-color:transparent">restore their
grip</span></a><span
style="background-color:transparent"> \u2013 not just on
Gaza, but on the broader terms of war and peace in
West Asia. </span></p>
<p><span style="background-color:transparent">Western
powers have long used negotiations as </span><a
href="https://thecradle.co/articles-id/34076"
moz-do-not-send="true"><span
style="background-color:transparent">mechanisms</span></a><span
style="background-color:transparent"> to
relegitimize their dominance. The language of
international law, the architecture of diplomacy,
and even the vocabulary of humanitarianism are all
routinely weaponized to serve the interests of
imperialism. </span></p>
<p><span style="background-color:transparent">Behind the
public statements and procedural delays was a deeper
design intended to convert the pause into a pivot,
and to reframe Gaza\u2019s future in a way that sidelined
Palestinians entirely. The ceasefire process itself
became a tool of dominance, shaped by the very
powers whose military and political machinery had
driven Gaza to catastrophe.</span></p>
<p><span style="background-color:transparent">The
central question, then, is not why the second phase
is delayed. It is: who is delaying it, to what end,
and within what political architecture is this
process being managed?</span></p>
<p><span style="background-color:transparent">To answer
that is to look beyond the headlines and into the
power corridors that stretch from the Israeli war
cabinet to Washington\u2019s national security apparatus,
from the divisions within the Israeli military to
the red lines drawn by the Palestinian resistance
around international </span><a
href="https://thecradle.co/articles/blairs-second-coming-gaza-under-colonial-trusteeship"
moz-do-not-send="true"><span
style="background-color:transparent">trusteeship</span></a><span
style="background-color:transparent"> schemes.</span></p>
<p><span style="background-color:transparent"><strong>Resistance
upheld the deal \u2013 Tel Aviv broke it</strong></span></p>
<p><span style="background-color:transparent">Speaking
to <i>The Cradle</i>, senior Hamas official Abdel
Majid al-Awad lays out a straightforward but damning
account: the resistance fully honored its
obligations in the first phase, including the
release of all living captives in a single batch,
and the continued handover of bodies despite
logistical complexities. </span></p>
<p><span style="background-color:transparent">On the
other side, there was no such commitment. Daily </span><a
href="https://thecradle.co/articles/over-400-casualties-in-gaza-since-start-of-us-backed-ceasefire"
moz-do-not-send="true"><span
style="background-color:transparent">violations</span></a><span
style="background-color:transparent"> of the
ceasefire, the relentless destruction of
infrastructure, and the targeted killing of
civilians represent a continuation of Israel\u2019s
well-established pattern of delay and evasion under
the guise of \u201csecurity considerations.\u201d</span></p>
<p><span style="background-color:transparent">This is
the context in which the second phase now hangs. And
here, it\u2019s the resistance\u2019s position that upends the
dominant narrative.</span></p>
<p><span style="background-color:transparent">According
to senior Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) official
Mahfouz Munawwar, the resistance has not signed off
on any post-conflict political arrangements. The
only agreement signed was the first phase.
Everything else, including discussions on governance
and security in Gaza, was deferred to a future
intra-Palestinian consensus. Disarmament is not on
the table. It will only be discussed once the
occupation ends.</span></p>
<p><span style="background-color:transparent">That truth
collapses the myth \u2013 widely circulated in Israeli
media \u2013 that the resistance has implicitly </span><a
href="https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2025-10-10/ty-article/.premium/how-hamas-gave-netanyahu-the-excuse-to-prolong-the-gaza-war/00000199-cd96-d068-a9b9-eddfd1ce0000"
moz-do-not-send="true"><span
style="background-color:transparent">accepted</span></a><span
style="background-color:transparent"> phase two. It
has not. It has held the line that any political
future for Gaza must be decided collectively by
Palestinians, not imposed by foreign powers.</span></p>
<p><span style="background-color:transparent"><strong>Trusteeship
by another name</strong></span></p>
<p><span style="background-color:transparent">Against
this backdrop, the recent UN Security Council (UNSC)
decision to establish a \u201c</span><a
href="https://thecradle.co/articles-id/34347"
moz-do-not-send="true"><span
style="background-color:transparent">Board of
Peace</span></a><span
style="background-color:transparent">\u201d to administer
Gaza is one of the most dangerous developments so
far. For Hamas, \u201cThe resolution imposes an
international guardianship mechanism on the Gaza
Strip, which our people and their factions reject.
It also imposes a mechanism to achieve the
occupation\u2019s objectives, which it failed to
accomplish through its brutal genocide.\u201d</span></p>
<p><span style="background-color:transparent">The
so-called \u201cconditional approval\u201d cited by Washington
and Tel Aviv is little more than media spin. The
actual implementation of the second phase remains
impossible because Israel wants it stripped of
costs, politics, Palestinian rights, and any actual
withdrawal.</span></p>
<p><span style="background-color:transparent">Israel now
ties progress on the second phase to three issues:
the return of bodies, tunnel networks, and what it
calls \u201cresidual threats.\u201d</span></p>
<p><span style="background-color:transparent">As Awad
and Munawwar explain, these are not genuine security
concerns but political tools to delay withdrawal and
impose new realities on the ground.</span></p>
<p><span style="background-color:transparent">From the
start of the war, Israel has used the tunnel issue
to justify continued ground operations \u2013 even though
its own military acknowledges that eradicating the
tunnel network is an </span><a
href="https://www.inss.org.il/publication/gaza-tunnels/:~:text=Azar%20Gat-,what%20have%20we%20not%20yet%20grasped%20about%20the%20strategic%20implications,of%20the%20organization's%252"
moz-do-not-send="true"><span
style="background-color:transparent">unachievable</span></a><span
style="background-color:transparent"> goal. The term
\u201cresidual threats\u201d is deliberately vague, designed
to sustain a permanent war footing.</span></p>
<p><span style="background-color:transparent">In other
words, these are attempts to impose the terms of a
victor after a battlefield defeat. Tel Aviv is
trying to extract political concessions through
talks that it failed to achieve through force.</span></p>
<p><span style="background-color:transparent"><strong>Recarving
Gaza</strong></span></p>
<p><span style="background-color:transparent">One of the
most dangerous of these attempts is the imposition
of the so-called \u201c</span><a
href="https://thecradle.co/articles-id/34311"
moz-do-not-send="true"><span
style="background-color:transparent">yellow line</span></a><span
style="background-color:transparent">\u201d \u2013 a
geographical partition that would effectively divide
Gaza into north and south, turning a temporary
military arrangement into a permanent political
rupture. </span></p>
<p><span style="background-color:transparent">The
so-called security buffer forms part of Israel\u2019s
ongoing campaign to carve up Palestinian geography \u2013
separating Gaza from the occupied West Bank,
isolating occupied East Jerusalem, and now bisecting
Gaza itself.</span></p>
<p><span style="background-color:transparent">Awad is
unequivocal: the resistance will not accept any
redrawing of borders, military or political. There
is no Gaza without Palestine, and no Palestine
without Gaza. Any attempt to translate battlefield
lines into permanent borders is simply a new version
of the \u201cNew Gaza\u201d project \u2013 a plan to sever the
strip from its national context and transform it
into a demilitarized, aid-dependent zone.</span></p>
<p><span style="background-color:transparent">Equally
alarming is the shifting mandate of the </span><a
href="https://thecradle.co/articles/us-drafts-plan-for-international-gaza-security-force-seeks-un-backing-report"
moz-do-not-send="true"><span
style="background-color:transparent">proposed</span></a><span
style="background-color:transparent"> \u201cInternational
Security Force\u201d (ISF). What was initially framed as
a monitoring mission to oversee a ceasefire has now
morphed, under US proposals, into a full-fledged
administrative entity. </span></p>
<p><span style="background-color:transparent">From
monitoring withdrawal, to administering Gaza, to
exercising authority, to imposing a new political
order, the security force aims to strip the
resistance of any role and impose a political order
that serves foreign interests. </span></p>
<p><span style="background-color:transparent">Both Hamas
and the PIJ have categorically rejected this
proposal \u2013 not as a tactical stance, but as a
principled position: any foreign force not approved
by a Palestinian consensus is an occupying force,
regardless of the flag it flies.</span></p>
<p><span style="background-color:transparent">Even key
Arab states have voiced </span><a
href="https://www.aa.com.tr/ar/%D8%A5%D8%B3%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%A6%D9%8A%D9%84/%D8%AA%D9%88%D8%A7%D8%B5%D9%84-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B1%D9%81%D8%B6-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B9%D8%B1%D8%A8%D9%8A-%D9%84%D8%AE%D8%B7%D8%A9-%D8%AA%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%85%D8%A8-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A7%D8%B3%D8%AA%D9%8A%D9%84%D8%A7%D8%A1-%D8%B9%D9%84%D9%89-%D8%BA%D8%B2%D8%A9-%D9%88%D8%AA%D9%87%D8%AC%D9%8A%D8%B1-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%81%D9%84%D8%B3%D8%B7%D9%8A%D9%86%D9%8A%D9%8A%D9%86-%D9%85%D8%AD%D8%B5%D9%84%D8%A9/3473162"
moz-do-not-send="true"><span
style="background-color:transparent">objections</span></a><span
style="background-color:transparent">, recognizing
that this plan is little more than a reboot of
Washington\u2019s old trusteeship model. It reduces the
Palestinian cause to a humanitarian problem and
obscures the core issue of national liberation.</span></p>
<p><span style="background-color:transparent"><strong>So
why is Israel obstructing the second phase? </strong></span></p>
<p><span style="background-color:transparent">Sources
from both Hamas and the PIJ inform <i>The Cradle</i>
that Israel is obstructing the second phase for four
core reasons.</span></p>
<p><span style="background-color:transparent">First,
because advancing to the next phase would amount to
acknowledging the </span><a
href="https://thecradle.co/articles-id/19839"
moz-do-not-send="true"><span
style="background-color:transparent">failure</span></a><span
style="background-color:transparent"> of its war.
Within Israel, the consensus is clear: the military
campaign has not delivered. Formalizing a second
phase would confirm that failure, so the political
and military leadership prefers to keep the process
in limbo \u2013 buying time in hopes of regaining lost
leverage.</span></p>
<p><span style="background-color:transparent">Second,
because Washington plays both sides. While publicly
pressuring Tel Aviv to comply, it simultaneously
allows the Israeli military to redefine the terms.
This duplicity creates a gray zone that Tel Aviv
exploits to its advantage.</span></p>
<p><span style="background-color:transparent">Third,
because the Israeli </span><a
href="https://thecradle.co/articles/why-israel-seeks-a-temporary-gaza-truce-to-keep-its-genocide-going"
moz-do-not-send="true"><span
style="background-color:transparent">far-right</span></a><span
style="background-color:transparent"> government
perceives any withdrawal as capitulation. Progress
on the ceasefire threatens to fracture the ruling
coalition, exposing the government to domestic
collapse. </span></p>
<p><span style="background-color:transparent">And
fourth, because Tel Aviv is attempting to extract in
negotiation what it failed to impose by force. It
demands resistance disarmament without compromise,
tunnel destruction without combat, foreign oversight
without responsibility, and the permanent detachment
of Gaza from the occupied West Bank \u2013 while dressing
it all up as a ceasefire.</span></p>
<p><span style="background-color:transparent">The US,
having orchestrated the ceasefire, now faces a
dilemma. It wants the war to end to avoid regional
collapse and repair its global standing. But it
cannot force Israel into full withdrawal without
triggering political backlash at home and further
destabilizing the region.</span></p>
<p><span style="background-color:transparent">The result
is a controlled freeze. The goal is not to end the
war, but to contain it \u2013 keeping it within limits
that protect US interests without jeopardizing its
regional strategy.</span></p>
<p><span style="background-color:transparent">This marks
a shift from \u201ctotal war\u201d to slow-motion warfare
governed by international political decisions, not
airstrikes or invasions.</span></p>
<p><span style="background-color:transparent"><strong>A
Palestinian vision for phase two</strong></span></p>
<p><span style="background-color:transparent">In this
vacuum, the resistance has laid out its own vision
for the second phase.</span></p>
<p><span style="background-color:transparent">First,
Gaza is not a separate entity. It is inseparable
from the national Palestinian fabric. No future
exists for Gaza outside the context of Palestinian
unity.</span></p>
<p><span style="background-color:transparent">Second,
any international force must be limited to border
monitoring. It cannot govern, manage, or police
Palestinian society.</span></p>
<p><span style="background-color:transparent">Third,
Gaza\u2019s </span><a
href="https://thecradle.co/articles/gaza-needs-70bn-to-rebuild-following-israels-genocidal-war-undp%5d"
moz-do-not-send="true"><span
style="background-color:transparent">reconstruction</span></a><span
style="background-color:transparent"> and civil
governance should be led by a Palestinian
technocratic committee, formed through national
consensus and supported by Arab and Islamic states. </span></p>
<p><span style="background-color:transparent">However,
this vision is not compatible with the American
plan. It is its antidote.</span></p>
<p><span style="background-color:transparent">So, was
the second phase delayed \u2013 or obstructed?</span></p>
<p><span style="background-color:transparent">The answer
leans toward the latter. Deliberately,
strategically, and in full coordination between Tel
Aviv and Washington. As both Awad and Munawwar tell <i>The
Cradle</i>, the second phase, far from mere
negotiations, will shape the future of Gaza, the
occupied West Bank, the Palestinian Authority (PA),
the resistance, and the regional order.</span></p>
<p><span style="background-color:transparent">That is
why Israel and its allies are stalling. They want to
ensure that when the second phase begins, it does
not return the resistance to a position of
initiative, nor collapse the Israeli government. </span></p>
<p><span style="background-color:transparent">They seek
to block any path toward Palestinian unity around an
independent national administration. They want to
prevent the reopening of a viable statehood track,
to maintain the separation between Gaza and the
occupied West Bank, and to preserve their grip over
the crossings, the reconstruction agenda, and the
broader political narrative.</span></p>
<p><span style="background-color:transparent">The second
phase will only begin when Tel Aviv is certain it
will not trigger a new wave of Palestinian
liberation.</span></p>
<p><span style="background-color:transparent">And so, we
return to the core contradiction: the resistance has
fulfilled its obligations; the occupation has
fulfilled none. In this gap between full compliance
and full evasion, one of the most consequential
chapters in the Palestinian struggle is unfolding.</span></p>
<p><span style="background-color:transparent">In West
Asia, agreements are rarely tools for ending
conflict but instruments for </span><a
href="https://thecradle.co/articles/lessons-from-syria-lebanon-resistance-is-the-only-guarantor-of-sovereignty"
moz-do-not-send="true"><span
style="background-color:transparent">dismantling
resistance</span></a><span
style="background-color:transparent">.</span></p>
<p><span style="background-color:transparent">Yet the
question remains: Can Israel postpone the inevitable
forever, or will the political momentum forged
through resistance on the battlefield impose itself
on the negotiating table too?</span></p>
<p><span style="background-color:transparent">The answer
lies with the Palestinian people \u2013 on their unity,
their refusal of foreign guardianship, and the
resistance\u2019s capacity to translate its military
endurance into a political strategy that can
reconfigure the entire regional equation.</span></p>
</span></div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<br>
</div>
</body>
</html>