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style="display:none;font-size:1px;color:#333333;line-height:1px;max-height:0px;max-width:0px;opacity:0;overflow:hidden;">The
US economy is vulnerable and much more dependent on China\u2019s than
vice versa. The one-year trade war truce that Donald Trump made
at his meeting with President Xi Jinping proves this.</div>
<div class="preview"
style="display:none;font-size:1px;color:#333333;line-height:1px;max-height:0px;max-width:0px;opacity:0;overflow:hidden;">\u034f
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<h1 class="post-title published title-X77sOw"
dir="auto"
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href="https://substack.com/app-link/post?publication_id=457596&post_id=177709326&utm_source=post-email-title&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=lvppb&token=eyJ1c2VyX2lkIjozNjc1MTU4MywicG9zdF9pZCI6MTc3NzA5MzI2LCJpYXQiOjE3NjIwODg1MDEsImV4cCI6MTc2NDY4MDUwMSwiaXNzIjoicHViLTQ1NzU5NiIsInN1YiI6InBvc3QtcmVhY3Rpb24ifQ.JtjjDorhmYDieOt89FAEmV616WsTv-P7Kq6GF6x_JKM"
style="color: rgb(54,55,55);text-decoration: none;"
moz-do-not-send="true">Trump is clearly losing
the trade war with China, which he started. This
is why.</a></h1>
<h3 class="subtitle subtitle-HEEcLo" dir="auto"
style="direction: auto;text-align: start;unicode-bidi: isolate;font-family: 'SF Pro Display',-apple-system-headline,system-ui,-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,'Segoe UI',Roboto,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif,'Apple Color Emoji','Segoe UI Emoji','Segoe UI Symbol';font-weight: normal;-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased;-moz-osx-font-smoothing: antialiased;-webkit-appearance: optimizelegibility;-moz-appearance: optimizelegibility;appearance: optimizelegibility;margin: 4px 0 0;color: #777777;line-height: 24px;font-size: 18px;margin-top: 12px;">The
US economy is vulnerable and much more dependent
on China\u2019s than vice versa. The one-year trade war
truce that Donald Trump made at his meeting with
President Xi Jinping proves this.</h3>
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href="https://substack.com/@benjaminnorton" moz-do-not-send="true">Ben
Norton</a></div>
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datetime="2025-11-02T13:01:15.197Z">Nov 2, 2025</time></div>
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<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;">Donald
Trump is losing the trade war against China, which
he himself started.</p>
<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;">Trump
held an important meeting with China\u2019s President
Xi Jinping in the South Korean city of Busan on 30
October. There, they came to a new agreement,
which amounted to a one-year truce.</p>
<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;">The
US government agreed to lift most of the punitive
measures that it had imposed on China since April
2025, essentially bringing the situation back to
what it was in January, when Trump entered office
for his second term.</p>
<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;">Although
this is not the end of the trade war, China
clearly won this battle.</p>
<div
class="video-player-with-background is-static video-player-wrapper"
role="region" aria-label="Video player"
style="flex-grow: 1;font-size: 16px;line-height: 26px;margin-top: 0.5em;"><a
class="video-player video-player-with-background"
href="https://substack.com/redirect/cba22ead-f982-4165-9454-3783be352677?j=eyJ1IjoibHZwcGIifQ.9RIwWbE6EVIB7Jy8lfazxZKfps8R18neRGMKwOiqnRM"
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class="video-player-preview" width="550"
src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!kob5!,w_1100,h_618,c_fill,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/l_play_button_usfui2,w_144,e_colorize:0/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-video.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fvideo_upload%2Fpost%2F177709326%2F95b5ba06-bf50-454e-9ec5-b105e3c7bf0b%2Ftranscoded-1761972587.png"
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<h3 class="header-anchor-post"
style="position: relative;font-family: 'SF Pro Display',-apple-system-headline,system-ui,-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,'Segoe UI',Roboto,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif,'Apple Color Emoji','Segoe UI Emoji','Segoe UI Symbol';font-weight: bold;-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased;-moz-osx-font-smoothing: antialiased;-webkit-appearance: optimizelegibility;-moz-appearance: optimizelegibility;appearance: optimizelegibility;margin: 1em 0 0.625em 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 1.16em;font-size: 1.375em;">China\u2019s
victory in this phase of the trade war confirms
its \u201cglobal economic superpower status\u201d</h3>
<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;"><span>The
</span><a
href="https://substack.com/redirect/81a34936-58e8-4f57-b894-54d882b016fa?j=eyJ1IjoibHZwcGIifQ.9RIwWbE6EVIB7Jy8lfazxZKfps8R18neRGMKwOiqnRM"
rel=""
style="color: rgb(54,55,55);text-decoration: underline;"
moz-do-not-send="true">Financial Times (FT)
noted</a><span> that, \u201cUnlike nearly 10 years
ago, when Trump\u2019s first trade offensive caught
Beijing by surprise, this time a better prepared
and economically more powerful China has been
able to fight its once far mightier opponent to
a standstill\u201d.</span></p>
<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;"><span>Starting
in April 2025, </span><a
href="https://substack.com/redirect/291879a5-2ce2-4850-a746-3fb1cfa86006?j=eyJ1IjoibHZwcGIifQ.9RIwWbE6EVIB7Jy8lfazxZKfps8R18neRGMKwOiqnRM"
rel=""
style="color: rgb(54,55,55);text-decoration: underline;"
moz-do-not-send="true">Trump threatened sky-high
tariffs on countries around the world</a><span>.
China is the only one that was able to defend
itself and prevent the US from imposing an
unequal treaty on it.</span></p>
<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;">When
Trump resorted to the nuclear option and increased
tariffs on China to 145%, he thought Beijing would
give in. But on the contrary, China hit back with
the same level of truly reciprocal duties. This
terrified Washington, and Trump backed down.</p>
<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;"><span>The
same thing happened when the </span><a
href="https://substack.com/redirect/0ec06844-da65-4f66-a7ec-dd5cee9ca897?j=eyJ1IjoibHZwcGIifQ.9RIwWbE6EVIB7Jy8lfazxZKfps8R18neRGMKwOiqnRM"
rel=""
style="color: rgb(54,55,55);text-decoration: underline;"
moz-do-not-send="true">Trump administration
tightened chip exports to China</a><span>, and
added many more Chinese companies to the US
Entity List, which was a form of sanctions.</span></p>
<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;">Beijing
responded by restricting the export of rare earth
metals and magnets to the US. Once again, this
frightened Washington, because China dominates the
global supply for rare earths, and US companies
are extremely reliant on them. Trump was forced to
back down.</p>
<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;"><span>This
is why the FT quoted an analyst from the major
French bank BNP Paribas, who said the United
States has come to recognize \u201cthat it is now
dealing with a peer rival capable of imposing
material economic harm on it \u2014 a relatively new
position for the US and a development which, at
least to us, </span><em>confirms China\u2019s
ascendancy to global economic superpower status</em><span>\u201d
(emphasis added).</span></p>
<div class="captioned-image-container-static"
style="font-size: 16px;line-height: 26px;margin: 32px auto;">
<figure style="width: 100%;margin: 0 auto;">
<table class="image-wrapper" width="100%"
border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"
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<td style="text-align: center;"></td>
<td class="content" align="left"
width="1379" style="text-align: center;"><a
class="image-link" target="_blank"
href="https://substack.com/redirect/5e81c0f0-9fee-4395-91f8-9d5e710612e6?j=eyJ1IjoibHZwcGIifQ.9RIwWbE6EVIB7Jy8lfazxZKfps8R18neRGMKwOiqnRM"
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height="503.73459028281366"
src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!WlAl!,w_1100,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa30ac186-0f80-448d-a455-966b80b43687_1379x1263.png"
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<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;">With
that said, the FT cautioned that this is by no
means the end of the trade war, and the agreements
made by the two sides \u201cwere relatively narrow and
mostly suspended existing punitive measures rather
than scrapping them altogether\u201d, which \u201cmakes
further US-China tensions inevitable\u201d.</p>
<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;">A
scholar at the Institute of International Studies
at China\u2019s highly influential Fudan University,
Zhao Minghao, explained, \u201cThis summit can only
bring about a tactical détente rather than a
strategic reset for the US-China relations\u201d.</p>
<h3 class="header-anchor-post"
style="position: relative;font-family: 'SF Pro Display',-apple-system-headline,system-ui,-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,'Segoe UI',Roboto,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif,'Apple Color Emoji','Segoe UI Emoji','Segoe UI Symbol';font-weight: bold;-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased;-moz-osx-font-smoothing: antialiased;-webkit-appearance: optimizelegibility;-moz-appearance: optimizelegibility;appearance: optimizelegibility;margin: 1em 0 0.625em 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 1.16em;font-size: 1.375em;">USA
makes more concessions than China</h3>
<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;"><a
href="https://substack.com/redirect/12705ee4-6fce-4594-96ec-af9eb0abb40e?j=eyJ1IjoibHZwcGIifQ.9RIwWbE6EVIB7Jy8lfazxZKfps8R18neRGMKwOiqnRM"
rel=""
style="color: rgb(54,55,55);text-decoration: underline;"
moz-do-not-send="true">Bloomberg concluded</a><span>
that the US made more concessions than China,
following the Trump-Xi meeting in South Korea.</span></p>
<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;"><span>As
part of the deal, the US government agreed to
halt Trump\u2019s threat of an additional 100%
tariff, to reduce its fentanyl-related duties on
China from 20% to 10%, to remove the new Chinese
companies that were added to its Entity List,
and to </span><a
href="https://substack.com/redirect/373909e9-9c0b-4128-97b2-3c7732a9cac5?j=eyJ1IjoibHZwcGIifQ.9RIwWbE6EVIB7Jy8lfazxZKfps8R18neRGMKwOiqnRM"
rel=""
style="color: rgb(54,55,55);text-decoration: underline;"
moz-do-not-send="true">suspend port fees</a><span>.</span></p>
<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;">For
its part, China agreed to lift its rare earth
controls and further restrict the export of
chemicals needed to make fentanyl (although
Beijing had already done the latter). China will
also resume its purchases of US soybeans (which is
discussed further below).</p>
<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;">Trump
and has allies have claimed that China also will
buy US oil and gas and potentially allow a deal on
TikTok, but this has not been confirmed; it is
purely hypothetical.</p>
<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;"><span>The
Associated Press also concluded that Trump won
nothing in the agreement, reporting: \u201cDeal
between the US and China is </span><a
href="https://substack.com/redirect/eb51f358-b043-4662-9c8e-cc33051f0234?j=eyJ1IjoibHZwcGIifQ.9RIwWbE6EVIB7Jy8lfazxZKfps8R18neRGMKwOiqnRM"
rel=""
style="color: rgb(54,55,55);text-decoration: underline;"
moz-do-not-send="true">undoing damage from a
self-inflicted trade war</a><span>\u201d.</span></p>
<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;">The
AP quoted an economist at Cornell University,
Eswar Prasad, who commented, \u201cIt is hard to see
what major gains the U.S. has made in the
bilateral relationship relative to where things
stood before Trump took office\u201d.</p>
<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;">In
other words, Trump waged an aggressive trade war
against China for months, only to end up back at
square one, empty-handed.</p>
<div class="captioned-image-container-static"
style="font-size: 16px;line-height: 26px;margin: 32px auto;">
<figure style="width: 100%;margin: 0 auto;">
<table class="image-wrapper" width="100%"
border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"
data-component-name="Image2ToDOMStatic"
style="mso-padding-alt: 1em 0 1.6em;">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;"></td>
<td class="content" align="left"
width="1304" style="text-align: center;"><a
class="image-link" target="_blank"
href="https://substack.com/redirect/daed132c-e79a-4672-bad7-57309ca13756?j=eyJ1IjoibHZwcGIifQ.9RIwWbE6EVIB7Jy8lfazxZKfps8R18neRGMKwOiqnRM"
rel=""
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moz-do-not-send="true"><img
class="wide-image"
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alt="" width="550"
height="451.3036809815951"
src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!P6uw!,w_1100,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F501121cb-c60a-40df-9b93-1792d1d31f4c_1304x1070.png"
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</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</figure>
</div>
<h3 class="header-anchor-post"
style="position: relative;font-family: 'SF Pro Display',-apple-system-headline,system-ui,-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,'Segoe UI',Roboto,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif,'Apple Color Emoji','Segoe UI Emoji','Segoe UI Symbol';font-weight: bold;-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased;-moz-osx-font-smoothing: antialiased;-webkit-appearance: optimizelegibility;-moz-appearance: optimizelegibility;appearance: optimizelegibility;margin: 1em 0 0.625em 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 1.16em;font-size: 1.375em;">US
economy is more dependent on China\u2019s than vice
versa</h3>
<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;"><span>This
is quite ironic, because back in April, when
Trump massively escalated the trade war, US
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent claimed </span><a
href="https://substack.com/redirect/5410bd4b-e134-413b-a4b2-432456f4a019?j=eyJ1IjoibHZwcGIifQ.9RIwWbE6EVIB7Jy8lfazxZKfps8R18neRGMKwOiqnRM"
rel=""
style="color: rgb(54,55,55);text-decoration: underline;"
moz-do-not-send="true">China was playing with a
\u201closing hand\u201d</a><span>.</span></p>
<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;">Bessent,
a billionaire hedge fund manager from Wall Street,
insisted that the United States had much more
leverage over China, and that Beijing would soon
surrender.</p>
<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;">\u201cWhat
do we lose by the Chinese raising tariffs on us?
We export one-fifth to them of what they export to
us, so that is a losing hand for them\u201d, he said.</p>
<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;">It
turns out the exact opposite was true; the US
economy is more dependent on China\u2019s.</p>
<div class="captioned-image-container-static"
style="font-size: 16px;line-height: 26px;margin: 32px auto;">
<figure style="width: 100%;margin: 0 auto;">
<table class="image-wrapper" width="100%"
border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"
data-component-name="Image2ToDOMStatic"
style="mso-padding-alt: 1em 0 1.6em;">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;"></td>
<td class="content" align="left"
width="1456" style="text-align: center;"><a
class="image-link" target="_blank"
href="https://substack.com/redirect/160dcf08-7607-40a6-8da1-bbe598c85f80?j=eyJ1IjoibHZwcGIifQ.9RIwWbE6EVIB7Jy8lfazxZKfps8R18neRGMKwOiqnRM"
rel=""
style="position: relative;flex-direction: column;align-items: center;padding: 0;width: auto;height: auto;border: none;text-decoration: none;display: block;margin: 0;"
moz-do-not-send="true"><img
class="wide-image"
data-attrs="{"src":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/c0f53d78-0fff-4c01-ba01-764a79c4151d_1920x1920.webp","srcNoWatermark":null,"fullscreen":null,"imageSize":null,"height":1456,"width":1456,"resizeWidth":null,"bytes":119286,"alt":null,"title":null,"type":"image/webp","href":null,"belowTheFold":true,"topImage":false,"internalRedirect":"https://www.geopoliticaleconomy.report/i/177709326?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc0f53d78-0fff-4c01-ba01-764a79c4151d_1920x1920.webp","isProcessing":false,"align":null,"offset":false}"
alt="" width="550" height="550"
src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!rIgO!,w_1100,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc0f53d78-0fff-4c01-ba01-764a79c4151d_1920x1920.webp"
style="border: none !important;vertical-align: middle;display: block;-ms-interpolation-mode: bicubic;height: auto;margin-bottom: 0;width: auto !important;max-width: 100% !important;margin: 0 auto;"
moz-do-not-send="true"></a></td>
<td style="text-align: center;"></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</figure>
</div>
<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;">Back
in 2000, yes, China was very dependent on the US
economy. At that time, trade with the US was
around one-quarter of China\u2019s overall trade.</p>
<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;">In
the past two decades, however, China has
significantly reduced its dependence on trade with
the US. By 2023, it was only around 10% of China\u2019s
overall trade.</p>
<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;"><span>When
one analyzes </span><a
href="https://substack.com/redirect/485abbcd-c1f9-4f0b-b3a1-37eed873dd8b?j=eyJ1IjoibHZwcGIifQ.9RIwWbE6EVIB7Jy8lfazxZKfps8R18neRGMKwOiqnRM"
rel=""
style="color: rgb(54,55,55);text-decoration: underline;"
moz-do-not-send="true">what exactly China
exports to the US</a><span>, and vice versa, one
can clearly see that it is the US that is more
dependent.</span></p>
<div class="captioned-image-container-static"
style="font-size: 16px;line-height: 26px;margin: 32px auto;">
<figure style="width: 100%;margin: 0 auto;">
<table class="image-wrapper" width="100%"
border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"
data-component-name="Image2ToDOMStatic"
style="mso-padding-alt: 1em 0 1.6em;">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;"></td>
<td class="content" align="left"
width="1456" style="text-align: center;"><a
class="image-link" target="_blank"
href="https://substack.com/redirect/c32a6acd-0521-4b04-9319-a0fbef3783bd?j=eyJ1IjoibHZwcGIifQ.9RIwWbE6EVIB7Jy8lfazxZKfps8R18neRGMKwOiqnRM"
rel=""
style="position: relative;flex-direction: column;align-items: center;padding: 0;width: auto;height: auto;border: none;text-decoration: none;display: block;margin: 0;"
moz-do-not-send="true"><img
class="wide-image"
data-attrs="{"src":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/5273fac5-c826-4810-b4a9-bc38a3592773_1471x1097.png","srcNoWatermark":null,"fullscreen":null,"imageSize":null,"height":1086,"width":1456,"resizeWidth":null,"bytes":286546,"alt":null,"title":null,"type":"image/png","href":null,"belowTheFold":true,"topImage":false,"internalRedirect":"https://www.geopoliticaleconomy.report/i/177709326?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5273fac5-c826-4810-b4a9-bc38a3592773_1471x1097.png","isProcessing":false,"align":null,"offset":false}"
alt="" width="550"
height="410.2335164835165"
src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!PXKn!,w_1100,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5273fac5-c826-4810-b4a9-bc38a3592773_1471x1097.png"
style="border: none !important;vertical-align: middle;display: block;-ms-interpolation-mode: bicubic;height: auto;margin-bottom: 0;width: auto !important;max-width: 100% !important;margin: 0 auto;"
moz-do-not-send="true"></a></td>
<td style="text-align: center;"></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</figure>
</div>
<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;">China
exports many technological products that the US
cannot get from anywhere else, including cell
phones, computers, batteries, machinery, and
parts.</p>
<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;">This
is no longer the 1980s and \u201890s, when much of
China\u2019s exports to the US consisted of low
value-added goods, like textiles, toys, and
household appliances. China has very quickly moved
up the global value chain.</p>
<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;">On
the other hand, many of the goods the US exports
to China are commodities like oil, gas, soybeans,
and corn. China can easily buy these from other
countries.</p>
<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;">There
are still a few important US goods that China has
been dependent on, especially advanced
semiconductors \u2014 although that is quickly changing
(as will be discussed later in this article).</p>
<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;">The
US previously exported a sizeable number of cars
to China. But China has become the world\u2019s number
one producer of cars, and most people in the
country prefer buying cars from Chinese companies,
which are much more affordable.</p>
<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;">Trump
and Bessent think the China of today is still that
of the \u201880s and \u201890s, when its economy revolved
around exported low value-added, labor-intensive
goods of questionable quality. Those days are long
gone.</p>
<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;">The
Chinese government successfully used industrial
policy, state-led development policies, and a
careful mixture of central planning and regulated
market competition in order to rapidly move up the
global value chain, create complex supply chains,
promote technological self-sufficiency, and
massively boost industrial output. </p>
<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;"><span>The
results speak for themselves: today, </span><a
href="https://substack.com/redirect/3a3ffa79-a25c-48c3-803d-48b4b2a0b0bf?j=eyJ1IjoibHZwcGIifQ.9RIwWbE6EVIB7Jy8lfazxZKfps8R18neRGMKwOiqnRM"
rel=""
style="color: rgb(54,55,55);text-decoration: underline;"
moz-do-not-send="true">China is the world\u2019s sole
manufacturing superpower</a><span>.</span></p>
<div class="captioned-image-container-static"
style="font-size: 16px;line-height: 26px;margin: 32px auto;">
<figure style="width: 100%;margin: 0 auto;">
<table class="image-wrapper" width="100%"
border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"
data-component-name="Image2ToDOMStatic"
style="mso-padding-alt: 1em 0 1.6em;">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;"></td>
<td class="content" align="left"
width="1456" style="text-align: center;"><a
class="image-link" target="_blank"
href="https://substack.com/redirect/b744515b-306f-44e5-999b-eaef15e6033e?j=eyJ1IjoibHZwcGIifQ.9RIwWbE6EVIB7Jy8lfazxZKfps8R18neRGMKwOiqnRM"
rel=""
style="position: relative;flex-direction: column;align-items: center;padding: 0;width: auto;height: auto;border: none;text-decoration: none;display: block;margin: 0;"
moz-do-not-send="true"><img
class="wide-image"
data-attrs="{"src":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/14cfdd13-5b75-43b3-b230-ecd2d5c0cd81_1492x849.png","srcNoWatermark":null,"fullscreen":null,"imageSize":null,"height":829,"width":1456,"resizeWidth":null,"bytes":293600,"alt":null,"title":null,"type":"image/png","href":null,"belowTheFold":true,"topImage":false,"internalRedirect":"https://www.geopoliticaleconomy.report/i/177709326?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F14cfdd13-5b75-43b3-b230-ecd2d5c0cd81_1492x849.png","isProcessing":false,"align":null,"offset":false}"
alt="" width="550"
height="313.1524725274725"
src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ydNu!,w_1100,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F14cfdd13-5b75-43b3-b230-ecd2d5c0cd81_1492x849.png"
style="border: none !important;vertical-align: middle;display: block;-ms-interpolation-mode: bicubic;height: auto;margin-bottom: 0;width: auto !important;max-width: 100% !important;margin: 0 auto;"
moz-do-not-send="true"></a></td>
<td style="text-align: center;"></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</figure>
</div>
<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;">In
fact, while China has become less dependent on
exporting to the US market, US companies have
become more reliant on the import of Chinese
intermediate goods and other inputs.</p>
<div class="captioned-image-container-static"
style="font-size: 16px;line-height: 26px;margin: 32px auto;">
<figure style="width: 100%;margin: 0 auto;">
<table class="image-wrapper" width="100%"
border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"
data-component-name="Image2ToDOMStatic"
style="mso-padding-alt: 1em 0 1.6em;">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;"></td>
<td class="content" align="left"
width="1456" style="text-align: center;"><a
class="image-link" target="_blank"
href="https://substack.com/redirect/f3d425c5-bcdc-4dab-85b6-37611c316b32?j=eyJ1IjoibHZwcGIifQ.9RIwWbE6EVIB7Jy8lfazxZKfps8R18neRGMKwOiqnRM"
rel=""
style="position: relative;flex-direction: column;align-items: center;padding: 0;width: auto;height: auto;border: none;text-decoration: none;display: block;margin: 0;"
moz-do-not-send="true"><img
class="wide-image"
data-attrs="{"src":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/e9752948-82e7-435e-a89e-d81abd1cf3ba_1492x841.png","srcNoWatermark":null,"fullscreen":null,"imageSize":null,"height":821,"width":1456,"resizeWidth":null,"bytes":248919,"alt":null,"title":null,"type":"image/png","href":null,"belowTheFold":true,"topImage":false,"internalRedirect":"https://www.geopoliticaleconomy.report/i/177709326?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe9752948-82e7-435e-a89e-d81abd1cf3ba_1492x841.png","isProcessing":false,"align":null,"offset":false}"
alt="" width="550"
height="310.1304945054945"
src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!4H_R!,w_1100,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe9752948-82e7-435e-a89e-d81abd1cf3ba_1492x841.png"
style="border: none !important;vertical-align: middle;display: block;-ms-interpolation-mode: bicubic;height: auto;margin-bottom: 0;width: auto !important;max-width: 100% !important;margin: 0 auto;"
moz-do-not-send="true"></a></td>
<td style="text-align: center;"></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</figure>
</div>
<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;">Bessent
argued that China was more dependent on the US
market because it has a large trade surplus.
However, the vast majority of the revenue of
Chinese companies comes from domestic purchases.</p>
<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;">Yes,
China does generate significant revenue through
the export of consumer electronics, but even in
that industry, the majority of revenue derives
from domestic sales. For all other major Chinese
industries, domestic revenues make up the vast
majority of total revenue.</p>
<div class="captioned-image-container-static"
style="font-size: 16px;line-height: 26px;margin: 32px auto;">
<figure style="width: 100%;margin: 0 auto;">
<table class="image-wrapper" width="100%"
border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"
data-component-name="Image2ToDOMStatic"
style="mso-padding-alt: 1em 0 1.6em;">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;"></td>
<td class="content" align="left"
width="965" style="text-align: center;"><a
class="image-link" target="_blank"
href="https://substack.com/redirect/b2123b53-e3c1-4e00-941d-7dc05c393cc8?j=eyJ1IjoibHZwcGIifQ.9RIwWbE6EVIB7Jy8lfazxZKfps8R18neRGMKwOiqnRM"
rel=""
style="position: relative;flex-direction: column;align-items: center;padding: 0;width: auto;height: auto;border: none;text-decoration: none;display: block;margin: 0;"
moz-do-not-send="true"><img
class="wide-image"
data-attrs="{"src":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/6903069e-8c67-45b9-8e6a-66d99f08d990_965x1041.png","srcNoWatermark":null,"fullscreen":null,"imageSize":null,"height":1041,"width":965,"resizeWidth":null,"bytes":37755,"alt":null,"title":null,"type":"image/png","href":null,"belowTheFold":true,"topImage":false,"internalRedirect":"https://www.geopoliticaleconomy.report/i/177709326?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6903069e-8c67-45b9-8e6a-66d99f08d990_965x1041.png","isProcessing":false,"align":null,"offset":false}"
alt="" width="550"
height="593.3160621761658"
src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!9F7U!,w_1100,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6903069e-8c67-45b9-8e6a-66d99f08d990_965x1041.png"
style="border: none !important;vertical-align: middle;display: block;-ms-interpolation-mode: bicubic;height: auto;margin-bottom: 0;width: auto !important;max-width: 100% !important;margin: 0 auto;"
moz-do-not-send="true"></a></td>
<td style="text-align: center;"></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</figure>
</div>
<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;">Some
of China\u2019s exports are still going to the US
market, albeit indirectly, by rerouting through
third countries, like Vietnam, Indonesia,
Thailand, or Mexico.</p>
<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;">Companies
in those countries often add more value to a
product that originated in China, and subsequently
export it to the US, where it will not be labeled
as a Chinese good.</p>
<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;">However,
from the perspective of a Chinese exporter, this
is not a problem. It simply wants to sell the
product; it doesn\u2019t care where the product goes
after.</p>
<h3 class="header-anchor-post"
style="position: relative;font-family: 'SF Pro Display',-apple-system-headline,system-ui,-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,'Segoe UI',Roboto,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif,'Apple Color Emoji','Segoe UI Emoji','Segoe UI Symbol';font-weight: bold;-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased;-moz-osx-font-smoothing: antialiased;-webkit-appearance: optimizelegibility;-moz-appearance: optimizelegibility;appearance: optimizelegibility;margin: 1em 0 0.625em 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 1.16em;font-size: 1.375em;">China\u2019s
rare earth supply chain dominance forced the US to
pause its aggressive trade war</h3>
<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;">One
of the biggest and most important takeaways of
China\u2019s victory in this round of the trade war is
the importance of rare earth elements.</p>
<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;">China
completely dominates the global supply chain for
rare earths, including both the mining and the
processing.</p>
<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;"><span>China
made up more than 60% of the mining and </span><a
href="https://substack.com/redirect/dd6dbcd0-b8af-4585-923a-bda13291d89b?j=eyJ1IjoibHZwcGIifQ.9RIwWbE6EVIB7Jy8lfazxZKfps8R18neRGMKwOiqnRM"
rel=""
style="color: rgb(54,55,55);text-decoration: underline;"
moz-do-not-send="true">around 90% of the
refining of rare earths</a><span>, as of 2024.</span></p>
<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;">Despite
the name, rare earths are actually not that rare;
they can be found in many places around the world.
What wakes it difficult for other countries to
replace China in the supply chain, however, is the
processing of rare earths, which is complex, labor
intensive, and environmentally destructive.</p>
<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;">The
United States has tried to increase its role in
the global rare earth industry, especially after
Trump launched the trade war against China in his
first term as president, but it has not made much
progress.</p>
<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;">It
will take years, if not decades, for the US to
make significant advances.</p>
<div class="captioned-image-container-static"
style="font-size: 16px;line-height: 26px;margin: 32px auto;">
<figure style="width: 100%;margin: 0 auto;">
<table class="image-wrapper" width="100%"
border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"
data-component-name="Image2ToDOMStatic"
style="mso-padding-alt: 1em 0 1.6em;">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;"></td>
<td class="content" align="left"
width="1200" style="text-align: center;"><a
class="image-link" target="_blank"
href="https://substack.com/redirect/49010f1e-79f3-4f7a-9609-14e1255b2fff?j=eyJ1IjoibHZwcGIifQ.9RIwWbE6EVIB7Jy8lfazxZKfps8R18neRGMKwOiqnRM"
rel=""
style="position: relative;flex-direction: column;align-items: center;padding: 0;width: auto;height: auto;border: none;text-decoration: none;display: block;margin: 0;"
moz-do-not-send="true"><img
class="wide-image"
data-attrs="{"src":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/c8acb8aa-119b-4d8d-a5ba-9699c0b7baf2_1200x1200.jpeg","srcNoWatermark":null,"fullscreen":null,"imageSize":null,"height":1200,"width":1200,"resizeWidth":null,"bytes":356572,"alt":null,"title":null,"type":"image/jpeg","href":null,"belowTheFold":true,"topImage":false,"internalRedirect":"https://www.geopoliticaleconomy.report/i/177709326?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc8acb8aa-119b-4d8d-a5ba-9699c0b7baf2_1200x1200.jpeg","isProcessing":false,"align":null,"offset":false}"
alt="" width="550" height="550"
src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!zb5o!,w_1100,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc8acb8aa-119b-4d8d-a5ba-9699c0b7baf2_1200x1200.jpeg"
style="border: none !important;vertical-align: middle;display: block;-ms-interpolation-mode: bicubic;height: auto;margin-bottom: 0;width: auto !important;max-width: 100% !important;margin: 0 auto;"
moz-do-not-send="true"></a></td>
<td style="text-align: center;"></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</figure>
</div>
<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;">When
China responded to Trump\u2019s aggressive, unilateral
escalation of the trade war in 2025, and, in an
act of self-defense, decided to restrict the
export of rare earths to the US, it terrified not
only Washington, but also the military-industrial
complex.</p>
<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;">US
tech companies, particularly arms manufacturers
and other US military contractors, are very
dependent on China\u2019s rare earth metals and
magnets.</p>
<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;"><span>The
hawkish anti-China think tank the Center for
Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) \u2014
which is </span><a
href="https://substack.com/redirect/b079eeec-f32d-4628-8257-78ef976e35e8?j=eyJ1IjoibHZwcGIifQ.9RIwWbE6EVIB7Jy8lfazxZKfps8R18neRGMKwOiqnRM"
rel=""
style="color: rgb(54,55,55);text-decoration: underline;"
moz-do-not-send="true">funded by the US
government</a><span>, other Western governments,
and large corporations in the
military-industrial complex \u2014 published a report
warning that \u201cChina\u2019s new rare earth and magnet
restrictions </span><a
href="https://substack.com/redirect/66105792-fd6e-4307-bafa-53591b360c67?j=eyJ1IjoibHZwcGIifQ.9RIwWbE6EVIB7Jy8lfazxZKfps8R18neRGMKwOiqnRM"
rel=""
style="color: rgb(54,55,55);text-decoration: underline;"
moz-do-not-send="true">threaten U.S. defense
supply chains</a><span>\u201d.</span></p>
<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;"><span>Ironically,
the </span><a
href="https://substack.com/redirect/7506395f-15b9-41d9-9c31-c61fc11744ce?j=eyJ1IjoibHZwcGIifQ.9RIwWbE6EVIB7Jy8lfazxZKfps8R18neRGMKwOiqnRM"
rel=""
style="color: rgb(54,55,55);text-decoration: underline;"
moz-do-not-send="true">US military is making
plans for a potential war on China</a><span>,
but it can\u2019t do so without China\u2019s rare earths.</span></p>
<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;">This
is why the US government in the past decade has
poured resources into trying to develop a new
supply chain for critical minerals that cuts out
China.</p>
<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;">However,
the journals and media outlets of the US
military-industrial complex acknowledge that the
US cannot realistically catch up in the production
of rare earths. </p>
<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;"><span>As
the US media outlet National Defense put it,
\u201cthe United States will </span><a
href="https://substack.com/redirect/a74009ef-3cd1-49f1-bd5c-9c84e100bcaa?j=eyJ1IjoibHZwcGIifQ.9RIwWbE6EVIB7Jy8lfazxZKfps8R18neRGMKwOiqnRM"
rel=""
style="color: rgb(54,55,55);text-decoration: underline;"
moz-do-not-send="true">not be able to end
reliance on China</a><span> through domestic
production\u201d.</span></p>
<h3 class="header-anchor-post"
style="position: relative;font-family: 'SF Pro Display',-apple-system-headline,system-ui,-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,'Segoe UI',Roboto,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif,'Apple Color Emoji','Segoe UI Emoji','Segoe UI Symbol';font-weight: bold;-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased;-moz-osx-font-smoothing: antialiased;-webkit-appearance: optimizelegibility;-moz-appearance: optimizelegibility;appearance: optimizelegibility;margin: 1em 0 0.625em 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 1.16em;font-size: 1.375em;">US
\u201cchip war\u201d targets China</h3>
<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;">It
must be emphasized that the reason that China put
restrictions the export of rare earths is because
it was responding to US attacks; it was an act of
self-defense.</p>
<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;">Trump
started the trade war on China in his first term.
However, the Democratic administration of Joe
Biden continued this trade war. The new cold war \u2014
Cold War Two \u2014 is bipartisan in Washington.</p>
<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;"><span>In
fact, the </span><a
href="https://substack.com/redirect/1b8ede07-077c-4b73-8c87-026a3d989424?j=eyJ1IjoibHZwcGIifQ.9RIwWbE6EVIB7Jy8lfazxZKfps8R18neRGMKwOiqnRM"
rel=""
style="color: rgb(54,55,55);text-decoration: underline;"
moz-do-not-send="true">Biden administration put
significant restrictions on the export of
technologies</a><span> to China, prohibiting the
export of advanced semiconductors and
chip-making tools.</span></p>
<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;">The
idea in Washington was that this would be the
Achilles\u2019 heel of China. US imperial strategists
thought that, by waging a tech war on China, they
could prevent it from catching up in cutting-edge
industries, especially artificial intelligence.</p>
<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;"><span>Washington
hoped that </span><a
href="https://substack.com/redirect/64402568-fc8c-4486-ad70-7ad4645cb370?j=eyJ1IjoibHZwcGIifQ.9RIwWbE6EVIB7Jy8lfazxZKfps8R18neRGMKwOiqnRM"
rel=""
style="color: rgb(54,55,55);text-decoration: underline;"
moz-do-not-send="true">US Big Tech corporations
in Silicon Valley would have a monopoly on AI</a><span>,
and China would be left behind.</span></p>
<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;"><span>Commerce
Secretary Gina Raimondo even admitted that the
US government\u2019s goal was to \u201c</span><a
href="https://substack.com/redirect/91dd5f23-3c7a-41ea-b65d-876e5822cb09?j=eyJ1IjoibHZwcGIifQ.9RIwWbE6EVIB7Jy8lfazxZKfps8R18neRGMKwOiqnRM"
rel=""
style="color: rgb(54,55,55);text-decoration: underline;"
moz-do-not-send="true">slow down China\u2019s rate of
innovation</a><span>\u201d.</span></p>
<div class="captioned-image-container-static"
style="font-size: 16px;line-height: 26px;margin: 32px auto;">
<figure style="width: 100%;margin: 0 auto;">
<table class="image-wrapper" width="100%"
border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"
data-component-name="Image2ToDOMStatic"
style="mso-padding-alt: 1em 0 1.6em;">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;"></td>
<td class="content" align="left"
width="1456" style="text-align: center;"><a
class="image-link" target="_blank"
href="https://substack.com/redirect/e2d3b917-d09c-4ba1-9044-0d89bf7633e0?j=eyJ1IjoibHZwcGIifQ.9RIwWbE6EVIB7Jy8lfazxZKfps8R18neRGMKwOiqnRM"
rel=""
style="position: relative;flex-direction: column;align-items: center;padding: 0;width: auto;height: auto;border: none;text-decoration: none;display: block;margin: 0;"
moz-do-not-send="true"><img
class="wide-image"
data-attrs="{"src":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/83fbeda6-30d0-419b-8783-ef95e6dae7ab_1614x1140.png","srcNoWatermark":null,"fullscreen":null,"imageSize":null,"height":1028,"width":1456,"resizeWidth":null,"bytes":378986,"alt":null,"title":null,"type":"image/png","href":null,"belowTheFold":true,"topImage":false,"internalRedirect":"https://www.geopoliticaleconomy.report/i/177709326?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F83fbeda6-30d0-419b-8783-ef95e6dae7ab_1614x1140.png","isProcessing":false,"align":null,"offset":false}"
alt="" width="550"
height="388.3241758241758"
src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!0405!,w_1100,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F83fbeda6-30d0-419b-8783-ef95e6dae7ab_1614x1140.png"
style="border: none !important;vertical-align: middle;display: block;-ms-interpolation-mode: bicubic;height: auto;margin-bottom: 0;width: auto !important;max-width: 100% !important;margin: 0 auto;"
moz-do-not-send="true"></a></td>
<td style="text-align: center;"></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</figure>
</div>
<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;">That,
of course, is not what happened.</p>
<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;">Just
as China\u2019s restrictions on the export of rare
earths caused the US government to pour resources
into developing its own supply chain for critical
minerals, the same thing has happened with
semiconductors. The US restrictions on the exports
of semiconductors to China led Beijing to
prioritize the development of its own domestic
chip-making industry.</p>
<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;">China\u2019s
industrial policy promoted the local production of
semiconductors. And it has been quite successful.</p>
<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;"><span>In
April 2024, Raimondo warned, \u201cAbout </span><a
href="https://substack.com/redirect/3d1e8cc2-f9ad-4c71-be68-33aada9deba3?j=eyJ1IjoibHZwcGIifQ.9RIwWbE6EVIB7Jy8lfazxZKfps8R18neRGMKwOiqnRM"
rel=""
style="color: rgb(54,55,55);text-decoration: underline;"
moz-do-not-send="true">60% of all new \u2018legacy
chips\u2019</a><span> coming into the market in the
next handful of years will be produced by
China\u201d. </span><a
href="https://substack.com/redirect/571b66ab-8934-4487-9ee5-6a80f6f730f7?j=eyJ1IjoibHZwcGIifQ.9RIwWbE6EVIB7Jy8lfazxZKfps8R18neRGMKwOiqnRM"
rel=""
style="color: rgb(54,55,55);text-decoration: underline;"
moz-do-not-send="true">Legacy chips</a><span>
are those used in most everyday technologies.
They are not the most advanced chips, but they
are much more common.</span></p>
<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;">The
US \u201cchip war\u201d against China ended up pushing
Beijing to increase government incentivizes for
domestic semiconductor manufacturing, and China is
now dominating the global chip market.</p>
<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;">Yes,
China has not caught up in developing the most
advanced chips; the US is still ahead. But China
is making progress fast.</p>
<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;"><span>This
is why Beijing decided to restrict Chinese tech
companies from </span><a
href="https://substack.com/redirect/bac6fc66-5340-4b12-8861-3291da9261de?j=eyJ1IjoibHZwcGIifQ.9RIwWbE6EVIB7Jy8lfazxZKfps8R18neRGMKwOiqnRM"
rel=""
style="color: rgb(54,55,55);text-decoration: underline;"
moz-do-not-send="true">purchasing chips from
Nvidia</a><span>, the US tech giant that has now
become the largest corporation on Earth by
market capitalization, because it has a monopoly
on designing the most advanced chips. China said
</span><a
href="https://substack.com/redirect/6d9d4311-c749-46ae-ac8f-b76bc9a3c6b1?j=eyJ1IjoibHZwcGIifQ.9RIwWbE6EVIB7Jy8lfazxZKfps8R18neRGMKwOiqnRM"
rel=""
style="color: rgb(54,55,55);text-decoration: underline;"
moz-do-not-send="true">Nvidia violates its
anti-monopoly laws</a><span>.</span></p>
<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;">Instead
of Chinese companies remaining dependent on the
purchase of Nvidia chips, Beijing wants to promote
domestic self-sufficiency. </p>
<h3 class="header-anchor-post"
style="position: relative;font-family: 'SF Pro Display',-apple-system-headline,system-ui,-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,'Segoe UI',Roboto,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif,'Apple Color Emoji','Segoe UI Emoji','Segoe UI Symbol';font-weight: bold;-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased;-moz-osx-font-smoothing: antialiased;-webkit-appearance: optimizelegibility;-moz-appearance: optimizelegibility;appearance: optimizelegibility;margin: 1em 0 0.625em 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 1.16em;font-size: 1.375em;">China
progresses fast, leading in most global critical
technologies</h3>
<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;">China\u2019s
rapid progress in the US \u201cchip war\u201d demonstrates
the success of Beijing\u2019s industrial policy, its
state-led drive to move up the value chain and
produce higher value-added goods.</p>
<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;">Such
technological upgrading is at the heart of China\u2019s
new five-year plan. </p>
<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;"><span>China
does have a market economy, but it it a </span><em><a
href="https://substack.com/redirect/8febf616-0d16-4c23-a137-84695d549b62?j=eyJ1IjoibHZwcGIifQ.9RIwWbE6EVIB7Jy8lfazxZKfps8R18neRGMKwOiqnRM"
rel=""
style="color: rgb(54,55,55);text-decoration: underline;"
moz-do-not-send="true">socialist</a></em><a
href="https://substack.com/redirect/8febf616-0d16-4c23-a137-84695d549b62?j=eyJ1IjoibHZwcGIifQ.9RIwWbE6EVIB7Jy8lfazxZKfps8R18neRGMKwOiqnRM"
rel=""
style="color: rgb(54,55,55);text-decoration: underline;"
moz-do-not-send="true"> market economy</a><span>,
where the most important sectors \u2014 the
commanding heights of the economy \u2014 are publicly
owned by the government, and central planning is
still used in strategic industries.</span></p>
<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;">The
Communist Party of China\u2019s five-year plan for 2026
to 2030 heavily emphasizes the importance of
technological progress.</p>
<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;"><span>In
particular, the new </span><a
href="https://substack.com/redirect/b646e31e-9b75-4dae-8182-af45a96e41bc?j=eyJ1IjoibHZwcGIifQ.9RIwWbE6EVIB7Jy8lfazxZKfps8R18neRGMKwOiqnRM"
rel=""
style="color: rgb(54,55,55);text-decoration: underline;"
moz-do-not-send="true">five-year plan calls for
\u201cextraordinary measures\u201d</a><span> to bring
about breakthroughs in advanced chip production.
</span></p>
<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;">This
is not just rhetoric. If one looks at China\u2019s past
plans, most of its goals were achieved.</p>
<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;">A
good example is the Made in China 2025 initiative.
This was a plan announced in 2015, when Beijing
set goals to become globally competitive in
cutting-edge tech industries. </p>
<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;"><a
href="https://substack.com/redirect/db7ee86e-44ce-428c-bbb3-ed0286459cc2?j=eyJ1IjoibHZwcGIifQ.9RIwWbE6EVIB7Jy8lfazxZKfps8R18neRGMKwOiqnRM"
rel=""
style="color: rgb(54,55,55);text-decoration: underline;"
moz-do-not-send="true">Bloomberg concluded that
China was successful</a><span> in almost all of
the industries it targeted. It is already the
global leader in five key technologies, and is
rapidly catching up in seven more.</span></p>
<div class="captioned-image-container-static"
style="font-size: 16px;line-height: 26px;margin: 32px auto;">
<figure style="width: 100%;margin: 0 auto;">
<table class="image-wrapper" width="100%"
border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"
data-component-name="Image2ToDOMStatic"
style="mso-padding-alt: 1em 0 1.6em;">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;"></td>
<td class="content" align="left"
width="1066" style="text-align: center;"><a
class="image-link" target="_blank"
href="https://substack.com/redirect/0c2452bb-7258-4ffb-af9d-c94eda5e6d4c?j=eyJ1IjoibHZwcGIifQ.9RIwWbE6EVIB7Jy8lfazxZKfps8R18neRGMKwOiqnRM"
rel=""
style="position: relative;flex-direction: column;align-items: center;padding: 0;width: auto;height: auto;border: none;text-decoration: none;display: block;margin: 0;"
moz-do-not-send="true"><img
class="wide-image"
data-attrs="{"src":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/0cf1f274-75bb-4264-be6a-10b38ac83fdf_1066x1476.png","srcNoWatermark":null,"fullscreen":null,"imageSize":null,"height":1476,"width":1066,"resizeWidth":null,"bytes":527372,"alt":null,"title":null,"type":"image/png","href":null,"belowTheFold":true,"topImage":false,"internalRedirect":"https://www.geopoliticaleconomy.report/i/177709326?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0cf1f274-75bb-4264-be6a-10b38ac83fdf_1066x1476.png","isProcessing":false,"align":null,"offset":false}"
alt="" width="550"
height="761.5384615384615"
src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!bn2S!,w_1100,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0cf1f274-75bb-4264-be6a-10b38ac83fdf_1066x1476.png"
style="border: none !important;vertical-align: middle;display: block;-ms-interpolation-mode: bicubic;height: auto;margin-bottom: 0;width: auto !important;max-width: 100% !important;margin: 0 auto;"
moz-do-not-send="true"></a></td>
<td style="text-align: center;"></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</figure>
</div>
<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;">This
was in fact admitted by a Western think tank that
is very anti-China.</p>
<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;">The
Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) is
backed by the Australian military and funded by
multiple Western governments. It is extremely
hawkish and constantly spreads anti-China
propaganda.</p>
<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;"><span>However,
</span><a
href="https://substack.com/redirect/e8e6142a-dad8-4e27-8ff7-55117ddee0c8?j=eyJ1IjoibHZwcGIifQ.9RIwWbE6EVIB7Jy8lfazxZKfps8R18neRGMKwOiqnRM"
rel=""
style="color: rgb(54,55,55);text-decoration: underline;"
moz-do-not-send="true">ASPI published a report
in 2024</a><span> acknowledging that China has
made incredible technological and scientific
progress in a short period of time.</span></p>
<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;">ASPI
reluctantly concluded that China \u201cis currently
leading in 57 of 64 critical technologies\u201d, or
89%.</p>
<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;">This
was a, well, great leap forward from the 2003-07
period, when China was leading in only three of 64
key technologies, or a mere 4.7%.</p>
<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;">In
stark contrast, this hawkish think tank lamented
that the \u201cUS is losing the strong historical
advantage that it has built\u201d. </p>
<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;">Two
decades ago, the United States was leading in 60
out of 64 critical technologies, or 94%.</p>
<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;">Today,
the US is only leading in seven of those 64
technologies, or 11%, measured from 2019 to 2023.</p>
<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;">This
is a tectonic shift in just two decades.</p>
<div class="captioned-image-container-static"
style="font-size: 16px;line-height: 26px;margin: 32px auto;">
<figure style="width: 100%;margin: 0 auto;">
<table class="image-wrapper" width="100%"
border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"
data-component-name="Image2ToDOMStatic"
style="mso-padding-alt: 1em 0 1.6em;">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;"></td>
<td class="content" align="left"
width="1456" style="text-align: center;"><a
class="image-link" target="_blank"
href="https://substack.com/redirect/f4b4e163-2a83-4db4-a034-b834851e6978?j=eyJ1IjoibHZwcGIifQ.9RIwWbE6EVIB7Jy8lfazxZKfps8R18neRGMKwOiqnRM"
rel=""
style="position: relative;flex-direction: column;align-items: center;padding: 0;width: auto;height: auto;border: none;text-decoration: none;display: block;margin: 0;"
moz-do-not-send="true"><img
class="wide-image"
data-attrs="{"src":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/15da22f5-f082-403e-bc16-c5b7a9eb219a_1526x1207.png","srcNoWatermark":null,"fullscreen":null,"imageSize":null,"height":1152,"width":1456,"resizeWidth":null,"bytes":313782,"alt":null,"title":null,"type":"image/png","href":null,"belowTheFold":true,"topImage":false,"internalRedirect":"https://www.geopoliticaleconomy.report/i/177709326?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F15da22f5-f082-403e-bc16-c5b7a9eb219a_1526x1207.png","isProcessing":false,"align":null,"offset":false}"
alt="" width="550"
height="435.16483516483515"
src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!N-ya!,w_1100,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F15da22f5-f082-403e-bc16-c5b7a9eb219a_1526x1207.png"
style="border: none !important;vertical-align: middle;display: block;-ms-interpolation-mode: bicubic;height: auto;margin-bottom: 0;width: auto !important;max-width: 100% !important;margin: 0 auto;"
moz-do-not-send="true"></a></td>
<td style="text-align: center;"></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</figure>
</div>
<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;">China
is today the world\u2019s indisputable technological
and manufacturing superpower, due in no small part
to government planning and industrial policy.</p>
<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;"><span>And
China continues to advance. Its new five-year
plan emphasizes the importance of \u201c</span><a
href="https://substack.com/redirect/7b552d3f-705c-4240-85b7-49c456899282?j=eyJ1IjoibHZwcGIifQ.9RIwWbE6EVIB7Jy8lfazxZKfps8R18neRGMKwOiqnRM"
rel=""
style="color: rgb(54,55,55);text-decoration: underline;"
moz-do-not-send="true">technological
self-reliance</a><span>\u201d, as the country catches
up in the industries where it is still behind.</span></p>
<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;">Given
this context, it is no surprise that the US
government\u2019s trade war and tech war on China
backfired.</p>
<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;">The
Trump administration clearly underestimated China,
and decided it needed a temporary truce to change
strategy.</p>
<h3 class="header-anchor-post"
style="position: relative;font-family: 'SF Pro Display',-apple-system-headline,system-ui,-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,'Segoe UI',Roboto,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif,'Apple Color Emoji','Segoe UI Emoji','Segoe UI Symbol';font-weight: bold;-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased;-moz-osx-font-smoothing: antialiased;-webkit-appearance: optimizelegibility;-moz-appearance: optimizelegibility;appearance: optimizelegibility;margin: 1em 0 0.625em 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 1.16em;font-size: 1.375em;">Trump
suspends the trade war for a year, as the 2026
midterm elections approach</h3>
<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;"><span>The
Financial Times described the US-China deal as a
\u201c</span><a
href="https://substack.com/redirect/55dfa6d0-0b3a-439e-90c9-304698acc6e1?j=eyJ1IjoibHZwcGIifQ.9RIwWbE6EVIB7Jy8lfazxZKfps8R18neRGMKwOiqnRM"
rel=""
style="color: rgb(54,55,55);text-decoration: underline;"
moz-do-not-send="true">one-year trade truce</a><span>\u201d.</span></p>
<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;">Trump,
on the other hand, in his typical bombastic
fashion, claimed it was \u201can amazing meeting\u201d and,
\u201cOn a scale of 0-10, with 10 being the best, the
meeting was a 12\u201d.</p>
<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;">This
is because Trump always claims he wins everything,
and he will never admit defeat (including in the
2020 US presidential election). He doesn\u2019t want to
acknowledge the fact that he is losing the trade
war that he started back in his first term as
president, which he massively escalated in April
2025.</p>
<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;">A
major factor motivating Trump to seek this
one-year truce with China is the US midterm
elections coming up in 2026.</p>
<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;">Trump
is afraid that continuing to escalate the trade
war on China would blow back on the US economy and
hurt the Republican Party\u2019s chances in the
midterms.</p>
<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;"><span>Polling
by Pew Research shows that </span><a
href="https://substack.com/redirect/ea006b84-c48a-461a-b069-ee2d114fb3af?j=eyJ1IjoibHZwcGIifQ.9RIwWbE6EVIB7Jy8lfazxZKfps8R18neRGMKwOiqnRM"
rel=""
style="color: rgb(54,55,55);text-decoration: underline;"
moz-do-not-send="true">the Republican Party is
very unpopular</a><span>. The majority of
Americans say the GOP is too extreme in its
positions and do not think that it governs in an
honest way. (The study also demonstrates that
the Democrats are very unpopular. Both parties
are widely mistrusted.)</span></p>
<div class="captioned-image-container-static"
style="font-size: 16px;line-height: 26px;margin: 32px auto;">
<figure style="width: 100%;margin: 0 auto;">
<table class="image-wrapper" width="100%"
border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"
data-component-name="Image2ToDOMStatic"
style="mso-padding-alt: 1em 0 1.6em;">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;"></td>
<td class="content" align="left"
width="620" style="text-align: center;"><a
class="image-link" target="_blank"
href="https://substack.com/redirect/6b044fe1-e1f4-4919-9434-31e3185148bb?j=eyJ1IjoibHZwcGIifQ.9RIwWbE6EVIB7Jy8lfazxZKfps8R18neRGMKwOiqnRM"
rel=""
style="position: relative;flex-direction: column;align-items: center;padding: 0;width: auto;height: auto;border: none;text-decoration: none;display: block;margin: 0;"
moz-do-not-send="true"><img
class="wide-image"
data-attrs="{"src":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/db3bdd5c-5cca-425e-b090-778917a6055a_620x836.png","srcNoWatermark":null,"fullscreen":null,"imageSize":null,"height":836,"width":620,"resizeWidth":null,"bytes":95518,"alt":null,"title":null,"type":"image/png","href":null,"belowTheFold":true,"topImage":false,"internalRedirect":"https://www.geopoliticaleconomy.report/i/177709326?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fdb3bdd5c-5cca-425e-b090-778917a6055a_620x836.png","isProcessing":false,"align":null,"offset":false}"
alt="" width="550"
height="741.6129032258065"
src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!GoMt!,w_1100,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fdb3bdd5c-5cca-425e-b090-778917a6055a_620x836.png"
style="border: none !important;vertical-align: middle;display: block;-ms-interpolation-mode: bicubic;height: auto;margin-bottom: 0;width: auto !important;max-width: 100% !important;margin: 0 auto;"
moz-do-not-send="true"></a></td>
<td style="text-align: center;"></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</figure>
</div>
<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;">Moreover,
polls show that Trump is very unpopular. </p>
<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;"><span>Trump
had a net approval rating of -18% as of 1
November, which was 285 days into his second
term as US president, according to </span><a
href="https://substack.com/redirect/4f08c90d-1f78-45d1-a053-1b8ff938ce13?j=eyJ1IjoibHZwcGIifQ.9RIwWbE6EVIB7Jy8lfazxZKfps8R18neRGMKwOiqnRM"
rel=""
style="color: rgb(54,55,55);text-decoration: underline;"
moz-do-not-send="true">polling from The
Economist</a><span>.</span></p>
<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;">Only
39% of Americans support Trump and his policies.
Nearly 3/5ths of Americans, 57%, disapprove of
Trump.</p>
<div class="captioned-image-container-static"
style="font-size: 16px;line-height: 26px;margin: 32px auto;">
<figure style="width: 100%;margin: 0 auto;">
<table class="image-wrapper" width="100%"
border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"
data-component-name="Image2ToDOMStatic"
style="mso-padding-alt: 1em 0 1.6em;">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;"></td>
<td class="content" align="left"
width="1152" style="text-align: center;"><a
class="image-link" target="_blank"
href="https://substack.com/redirect/d96b3451-bcac-4289-b7aa-6054d0a58c3c?j=eyJ1IjoibHZwcGIifQ.9RIwWbE6EVIB7Jy8lfazxZKfps8R18neRGMKwOiqnRM"
rel=""
style="position: relative;flex-direction: column;align-items: center;padding: 0;width: auto;height: auto;border: none;text-decoration: none;display: block;margin: 0;"
moz-do-not-send="true"><img
class="wide-image"
data-attrs="{"src":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/cfa03f2c-8ec7-4bda-890d-e21de6239eef_1152x1033.png","srcNoWatermark":null,"fullscreen":null,"imageSize":null,"height":1033,"width":1152,"resizeWidth":null,"bytes":134783,"alt":null,"title":null,"type":"image/png","href":null,"belowTheFold":true,"topImage":false,"internalRedirect":"https://www.geopoliticaleconomy.report/i/177709326?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fcfa03f2c-8ec7-4bda-890d-e21de6239eef_1152x1033.png","isProcessing":false,"align":null,"offset":false}"
alt="" width="550"
height="493.1857638888889"
src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!t-ib!,w_1100,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fcfa03f2c-8ec7-4bda-890d-e21de6239eef_1152x1033.png"
style="border: none !important;vertical-align: middle;display: block;-ms-interpolation-mode: bicubic;height: auto;margin-bottom: 0;width: auto !important;max-width: 100% !important;margin: 0 auto;"
moz-do-not-send="true"></a></td>
<td style="text-align: center;"></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</figure>
</div>
<h3 class="header-anchor-post"
style="position: relative;font-family: 'SF Pro Display',-apple-system-headline,system-ui,-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,'Segoe UI',Roboto,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif,'Apple Color Emoji','Segoe UI Emoji','Segoe UI Symbol';font-weight: bold;-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased;-moz-osx-font-smoothing: antialiased;-webkit-appearance: optimizelegibility;-moz-appearance: optimizelegibility;appearance: optimizelegibility;margin: 1em 0 0.625em 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 1.16em;font-size: 1.375em;">Trump\u2019s
tariffs hurt working-class Americans, driving
inflation</h3>
<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;">It
makes sense that most Americans disapprove of
Trump, because his policies have done a lot of
damage to average working people.</p>
<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;">Most
of the burden of Trump\u2019s tariffs has fallen on the
shoulders of US consumers.</p>
<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;"><a
href="https://substack.com/redirect/0cdf2a82-aa45-4732-ab11-82c716d86fab?j=eyJ1IjoibHZwcGIifQ.9RIwWbE6EVIB7Jy8lfazxZKfps8R18neRGMKwOiqnRM"
rel=""
style="color: rgb(54,55,55);text-decoration: underline;"
moz-do-not-send="true">US consumers are paying
for 55% of the cost of Trump\u2019s tariffs</a><span>,
according to analysis by Goldman Sachs.</span></p>
<div class="captioned-image-container-static"
style="font-size: 16px;line-height: 26px;margin: 32px auto;">
<figure style="width: 100%;margin: 0 auto;">
<table class="image-wrapper" width="100%"
border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"
data-component-name="Image2ToDOMStatic"
style="mso-padding-alt: 1em 0 1.6em;">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;"></td>
<td class="content" align="left"
width="1456" style="text-align: center;"><a
class="image-link" target="_blank"
href="https://substack.com/redirect/cc9a2cd4-8b94-4876-86c3-4f9c7c2a368e?j=eyJ1IjoibHZwcGIifQ.9RIwWbE6EVIB7Jy8lfazxZKfps8R18neRGMKwOiqnRM"
rel=""
style="position: relative;flex-direction: column;align-items: center;padding: 0;width: auto;height: auto;border: none;text-decoration: none;display: block;margin: 0;"
moz-do-not-send="true"><img
class="wide-image"
data-attrs="{"src":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/8a594de1-3d17-4b24-83f7-97f3387c655b_1685x634.png","srcNoWatermark":null,"fullscreen":null,"imageSize":null,"height":548,"width":1456,"resizeWidth":null,"bytes":97600,"alt":null,"title":null,"type":"image/png","href":null,"belowTheFold":true,"topImage":false,"internalRedirect":"https://www.geopoliticaleconomy.report/i/177709326?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8a594de1-3d17-4b24-83f7-97f3387c655b_1685x634.png","isProcessing":false,"align":null,"offset":false}"
alt="" width="550"
height="207.0054945054945"
src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!2Myi!,w_1100,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8a594de1-3d17-4b24-83f7-97f3387c655b_1685x634.png"
style="border: none !important;vertical-align: middle;display: block;-ms-interpolation-mode: bicubic;height: auto;margin-bottom: 0;width: auto !important;max-width: 100% !important;margin: 0 auto;"
moz-do-not-send="true"></a></td>
<td style="text-align: center;"></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</figure>
</div>
<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;">Trump
has falsely claimed for years that other countries
pay tariffs. That is simply not true; it is a lie.</p>
<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;">Tariffs
are a tax on imports. It is importers in the
country where the duties are imposed that pay
them. So US importers pay Trump\u2019s tariffs.</p>
<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;">Companies
in the US that import goods from China pay the
tariffs, not Chinese exporters.</p>
<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;">Importers
usually they pass down the costs of those tariffs
to customers, in the form of higher prices. This
is exactly what is happening in the US.</p>
<div class="captioned-image-container-static"
style="font-size: 16px;line-height: 26px;margin: 32px auto;">
<figure style="width: 100%;margin: 0 auto;">
<table class="image-wrapper" width="100%"
border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"
data-component-name="Image2ToDOMStatic"
style="mso-padding-alt: 1em 0 1.6em;">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;"></td>
<td class="content" align="left"
width="1141" style="text-align: center;"><a
class="image-link" target="_blank"
href="https://substack.com/redirect/3f69c2a8-9402-493a-8301-1e02e080039a?j=eyJ1IjoibHZwcGIifQ.9RIwWbE6EVIB7Jy8lfazxZKfps8R18neRGMKwOiqnRM"
rel=""
style="position: relative;flex-direction: column;align-items: center;padding: 0;width: auto;height: auto;border: none;text-decoration: none;display: block;margin: 0;"
moz-do-not-send="true"><img
class="wide-image"
data-attrs="{"src":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/3af876bb-182d-45e2-b3af-f87f4090b9c2_1141x970.png","srcNoWatermark":null,"fullscreen":null,"imageSize":null,"height":970,"width":1141,"resizeWidth":null,"bytes":66033,"alt":null,"title":null,"type":"image/png","href":null,"belowTheFold":true,"topImage":false,"internalRedirect":"https://www.geopoliticaleconomy.report/i/177709326?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3af876bb-182d-45e2-b3af-f87f4090b9c2_1141x970.png","isProcessing":false,"align":null,"offset":false}"
alt="" width="550"
height="467.57230499561786"
src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!QpbY!,w_1100,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3af876bb-182d-45e2-b3af-f87f4090b9c2_1141x970.png"
style="border: none !important;vertical-align: middle;display: block;-ms-interpolation-mode: bicubic;height: auto;margin-bottom: 0;width: auto !important;max-width: 100% !important;margin: 0 auto;"
moz-do-not-send="true"></a></td>
<td style="text-align: center;"></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</figure>
</div>
<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;">In
other words, Trump has been raising consumption
taxes on working-class Americans with his tariffs.
This is a form of regressive taxation.</p>
<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;">Meanwhile,
Trump has massively slashes taxes on the richest
Americans, effectively shifting the burden of
taxation off of capital and onto labor.</p>
<div class="captioned-image-container-static"
style="font-size: 16px;line-height: 26px;margin: 32px auto;">
<figure style="width: 100%;margin: 0 auto;">
<table class="image-wrapper" width="100%"
border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"
data-component-name="Image2ToDOMStatic"
style="mso-padding-alt: 1em 0 1.6em;">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;"></td>
<td class="content" align="left"
width="1456" style="text-align: center;"><a
class="image-link" target="_blank"
href="https://substack.com/redirect/1ff6f40c-f49f-4f9b-9df6-eee6cc621c7b?j=eyJ1IjoibHZwcGIifQ.9RIwWbE6EVIB7Jy8lfazxZKfps8R18neRGMKwOiqnRM"
rel=""
style="position: relative;flex-direction: column;align-items: center;padding: 0;width: auto;height: auto;border: none;text-decoration: none;display: block;margin: 0;"
moz-do-not-send="true"><img
class="wide-image"
data-attrs="{"src":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/78d17f9d-20ea-4257-adaa-1faa50b43ebb_2251x2088.png","srcNoWatermark":null,"fullscreen":null,"imageSize":null,"height":1351,"width":1456,"resizeWidth":null,"bytes":135840,"alt":null,"title":null,"type":"image/png","href":null,"belowTheFold":true,"topImage":false,"internalRedirect":"https://www.geopoliticaleconomy.report/i/177709326?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F78d17f9d-20ea-4257-adaa-1faa50b43ebb_2251x2088.png","isProcessing":false,"align":null,"offset":false}"
alt="" width="550"
height="510.33653846153845"
src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ytyh!,w_1100,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F78d17f9d-20ea-4257-adaa-1faa50b43ebb_2251x2088.png"
style="border: none !important;vertical-align: middle;display: block;-ms-interpolation-mode: bicubic;height: auto;margin-bottom: 0;width: auto !important;max-width: 100% !important;margin: 0 auto;"
moz-do-not-send="true"></a></td>
<td style="text-align: center;"></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</figure>
</div>
<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;">Furthermore,
this comes at a time when consumer price inflation
in the US has remained relatively high.</p>
<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;"><span>The
</span><a
href="https://substack.com/redirect/c96a79c4-9968-4d71-929d-d8bb3b968151?j=eyJ1IjoibHZwcGIifQ.9RIwWbE6EVIB7Jy8lfazxZKfps8R18neRGMKwOiqnRM"
rel=""
style="color: rgb(54,55,55);text-decoration: underline;"
moz-do-not-send="true">consumer price index
(CPI)</a><span> was at 3% in September 2025. It
has stuck persistently above the 2% inflation
target that is set by the Federal Reserve, the
US central bank.</span></p>
<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;">Consumer
price inflation has been rising ever since Trump
imposed massive tariffs on countries around the
world in April.</p>
<div class="captioned-image-container-static"
style="font-size: 16px;line-height: 26px;margin: 32px auto;">
<figure style="width: 100%;margin: 0 auto;">
<table class="image-wrapper" width="100%"
border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"
data-component-name="Image2ToDOMStatic"
style="mso-padding-alt: 1em 0 1.6em;">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;"></td>
<td class="content" align="left"
width="1456" style="text-align: center;"><a
class="image-link" target="_blank"
href="https://substack.com/redirect/7e41e0ae-cdfb-443d-bdf8-28540259235a?j=eyJ1IjoibHZwcGIifQ.9RIwWbE6EVIB7Jy8lfazxZKfps8R18neRGMKwOiqnRM"
rel=""
style="position: relative;flex-direction: column;align-items: center;padding: 0;width: auto;height: auto;border: none;text-decoration: none;display: block;margin: 0;"
moz-do-not-send="true"><img
class="wide-image"
data-attrs="{"src":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/d3a12263-8819-4fa8-9401-dafd40bc9057_1971x760.png","srcNoWatermark":null,"fullscreen":null,"imageSize":null,"height":561,"width":1456,"resizeWidth":null,"bytes":107864,"alt":null,"title":null,"type":"image/png","href":null,"belowTheFold":true,"topImage":false,"internalRedirect":"https://www.geopoliticaleconomy.report/i/177709326?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd3a12263-8819-4fa8-9401-dafd40bc9057_1971x760.png","isProcessing":false,"align":null,"offset":false}"
alt="" width="550"
height="211.9162087912088"
src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!BuMl!,w_1100,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd3a12263-8819-4fa8-9401-dafd40bc9057_1971x760.png"
style="border: none !important;vertical-align: middle;display: block;-ms-interpolation-mode: bicubic;height: auto;margin-bottom: 0;width: auto !important;max-width: 100% !important;margin: 0 auto;"
moz-do-not-send="true"></a></td>
<td style="text-align: center;"></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</figure>
</div>
<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;">This
is all deeply ironic, because inflation was the
main reason that Trump won the 2024 US
presidential election. </p>
<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;">Due
to supply chain disruptions during the Covid-19
pandemic, countries worldwide suffered from high
rates of inflation in 2022-23. </p>
<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;">In
the US, the CPI peaked at 9% in June 2022. This
was the highest level in decades.</p>
<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;">Most
political parties and leaders that were in power
during this inflation crisis lost elections. The
US was no exception.</p>
<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;"><span>US
voters said </span><a
href="https://substack.com/redirect/c1901b00-8a75-4ca0-b848-e6a702fec45d?j=eyJ1IjoibHZwcGIifQ.9RIwWbE6EVIB7Jy8lfazxZKfps8R18neRGMKwOiqnRM"
rel=""
style="color: rgb(54,55,55);text-decoration: underline;"
moz-do-not-send="true">the economy was the most
important issue</a><span> in the 2024 election.</span></p>
<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;">The
Joe Biden administration did not handle the
inflation crisis well. Inequality skyrocketed in
the US; the rich got much, much richer, while poor
and working-class people struggled.</p>
<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;"><span>Trump
claimed he would solve the economic issues and
bring down inflation. He has utterly failed to
do so, and has in fact made the problems even
worse. Trump\u2019s policies have mostly benefited
billionaires like him, and the </span><a
href="https://substack.com/redirect/ffccb9a3-9f92-46f1-890d-29a4b057b6ad?j=eyJ1IjoibHZwcGIifQ.9RIwWbE6EVIB7Jy8lfazxZKfps8R18neRGMKwOiqnRM"
rel=""
style="color: rgb(54,55,55);text-decoration: underline;"
moz-do-not-send="true">dozen other billionaires
in his administration</a><span>.</span></p>
<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;">However,
Biden, Kamala Harris, and the Democratic Party did
not propose pro-working class policies that would
solve these economic problems. They failed to
provide an alternative to the neoliberal status
quo.</p>
<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;">Trump
won the election because he had a simplistic
message, claiming he would solve these deep,
structural economic problems with some quick
fixes: scapegoating immigrants, carrying out mass
deportations, and imposing tariffs.</p>
<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;">These
policies have only made the situation worse.</p>
<h3 class="header-anchor-post"
style="position: relative;font-family: 'SF Pro Display',-apple-system-headline,system-ui,-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,'Segoe UI',Roboto,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif,'Apple Color Emoji','Segoe UI Emoji','Segoe UI Symbol';font-weight: bold;-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased;-moz-osx-font-smoothing: antialiased;-webkit-appearance: optimizelegibility;-moz-appearance: optimizelegibility;appearance: optimizelegibility;margin: 1em 0 0.625em 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 1.16em;font-size: 1.375em;">The
US is losing manufacturing jobs</h3>
<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;">Trump
claimed he would re-industrialize the US and bring
back good manufacturing jobs. The opposite has
been happening.</p>
<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;">The
number of manufacturing jobs has in fact been
falling under Trump.</p>
<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;"><span>The
</span><a
href="https://substack.com/redirect/c34aa9c9-50a7-4f41-af5e-60fed5ce10b3?j=eyJ1IjoibHZwcGIifQ.9RIwWbE6EVIB7Jy8lfazxZKfps8R18neRGMKwOiqnRM"
rel=""
style="color: rgb(54,55,55);text-decoration: underline;"
moz-do-not-send="true">US lost 42,000
manufacturing jobs</a><span> between April, when
Trump kicked off his global trade war, and
August 2025, according to data from the Bureau
of Labor Statistics (BLS).</span></p>
<div class="captioned-image-container-static"
style="font-size: 16px;line-height: 26px;margin: 32px auto;">
<figure style="width: 100%;margin: 0 auto;">
<table class="image-wrapper" width="100%"
border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"
data-component-name="Image2ToDOMStatic"
style="mso-padding-alt: 1em 0 1.6em;">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;"></td>
<td class="content" align="left"
width="1456" style="text-align: center;"><a
class="image-link" target="_blank"
href="https://substack.com/redirect/bcca6d03-b25e-415a-b1a6-30a84deeb4a2?j=eyJ1IjoibHZwcGIifQ.9RIwWbE6EVIB7Jy8lfazxZKfps8R18neRGMKwOiqnRM"
rel=""
style="position: relative;flex-direction: column;align-items: center;padding: 0;width: auto;height: auto;border: none;text-decoration: none;display: block;margin: 0;"
moz-do-not-send="true"><img
class="wide-image"
data-attrs="{"src":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/8df21d97-7e7a-4635-a508-85df575259ba_1797x715.png","srcNoWatermark":null,"fullscreen":null,"imageSize":null,"height":579,"width":1456,"resizeWidth":null,"bytes":78483,"alt":null,"title":null,"type":"image/png","href":null,"belowTheFold":true,"topImage":false,"internalRedirect":"https://www.geopoliticaleconomy.report/i/177709326?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8df21d97-7e7a-4635-a508-85df575259ba_1797x715.png","isProcessing":false,"align":null,"offset":false}"
alt="" width="550"
height="218.71565934065933"
src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!hNT9!,w_1100,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8df21d97-7e7a-4635-a508-85df575259ba_1797x715.png"
style="border: none !important;vertical-align: middle;display: block;-ms-interpolation-mode: bicubic;height: auto;margin-bottom: 0;width: auto !important;max-width: 100% !important;margin: 0 auto;"
moz-do-not-send="true"></a></td>
<td style="text-align: center;"></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</figure>
</div>
<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;">Surveys
of manufacturers have found that the main reason
for the job loss is the extreme uncertainty
surrounding Trump\u2019s tariffs and trade war.</p>
<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;"><span>CBS
News reported that many of the </span><a
href="https://substack.com/redirect/87e29f3b-52fd-43a9-8d32-28039f2315b6?j=eyJ1IjoibHZwcGIifQ.9RIwWbE6EVIB7Jy8lfazxZKfps8R18neRGMKwOiqnRM"
rel=""
style="color: rgb(54,55,55);text-decoration: underline;"
moz-do-not-send="true">workers who lost their
jobs</a><span> had been making goods like cars,
household appliances, and electronics. These
were relatively well-paid jobs that provided
stability for working-class families.</span></p>
<h3 class="header-anchor-post"
style="position: relative;font-family: 'SF Pro Display',-apple-system-headline,system-ui,-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,'Segoe UI',Roboto,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif,'Apple Color Emoji','Segoe UI Emoji','Segoe UI Symbol';font-weight: bold;-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased;-moz-osx-font-smoothing: antialiased;-webkit-appearance: optimizelegibility;-moz-appearance: optimizelegibility;appearance: optimizelegibility;margin: 1em 0 0.625em 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 1.16em;font-size: 1.375em;">Trump\u2019s
tariffs hurt US farmers, many of whom voted for
him</h3>
<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;"><span>Trump\u2019s
trade war on China also hurt a major part of </span><a
href="https://substack.com/redirect/fe5ebfd2-dec5-4afe-bb51-426ebc295325?j=eyJ1IjoibHZwcGIifQ.9RIwWbE6EVIB7Jy8lfazxZKfps8R18neRGMKwOiqnRM"
rel=""
style="color: rgb(54,55,55);text-decoration: underline;"
moz-do-not-send="true">his voting base: farmers</a><span>.</span></p>
<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;">US
soybean farmers rely heavily on exporting to the
Chinese market.</p>
<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;">As
part of the agreement that was made between Trump
and President Xi in South Korea in October, the
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent boasted that
China agreed to buy 12 million metric tons of US
soybeans. </p>
<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;"><span>That
may sound like a lot, but it actually represents
a big decline compared to the previous year.
Reuters reported that, last season, </span><a
href="https://substack.com/redirect/d9563dbe-c5c9-4d3f-8bfb-bea16c45cd93?j=eyJ1IjoibHZwcGIifQ.9RIwWbE6EVIB7Jy8lfazxZKfps8R18neRGMKwOiqnRM"
rel=""
style="color: rgb(54,55,55);text-decoration: underline;"
moz-do-not-send="true">China bought 22.5 million
tons of US soybeans</a><span>. </span></p>
<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;">According
to Bessent, China agreed to buy 25 million tons of
US soybeans per year for the next three years.
However, this is below the annual average of 28.8
million tons that China had already been buying
from the US, before Trump started this new phase
of the trade war in April.</p>
<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;">China
had paused its import of soybeans in response to
Trump\u2019s aggressive, unilateral trade war. </p>
<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;">So
in reality, China is not making any concessions to
the Trump administration by agreeing to buy
soybeans; it is simply returning to the status quo
ante.</p>
<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;">Meanwhile,
throughout this trade war, US farmers endured
severe economic pain, for no reason.</p>
<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;"><span>\u201cThe
</span><a
href="https://substack.com/redirect/d9563dbe-c5c9-4d3f-8bfb-bea16c45cd93?j=eyJ1IjoibHZwcGIifQ.9RIwWbE6EVIB7Jy8lfazxZKfps8R18neRGMKwOiqnRM"
rel=""
style="color: rgb(54,55,55);text-decoration: underline;"
moz-do-not-send="true">drop in Chinese demand
cost U.S. farmers</a><span> - a key pillar of
Trump\u2019s political base - billions of dollars in
lost sales and the deal would represent a return
to normalcy in trade\u201d, Reuters wrote.</span></p>
<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;">What
this demonstrates, again, is that, when Bessent
claimed China had a \u201closing hand\u201d, it was the
opposite of reality. China had more options than
the US did.</p>
<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;"><span>When
Trump massively escalated the US trade war,
China responded by buying significantly </span><a
href="https://substack.com/redirect/41dab991-80eb-4315-ae80-b5141fc1481f?j=eyJ1IjoibHZwcGIifQ.9RIwWbE6EVIB7Jy8lfazxZKfps8R18neRGMKwOiqnRM"
rel=""
style="color: rgb(54,55,55);text-decoration: underline;"
moz-do-not-send="true">more soybeans from
Argentina</a><span>.</span></p>
<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;"><span>China
also increased its purchases of </span><a
href="https://substack.com/redirect/1e403858-b951-45f0-a748-a3f660308d24?j=eyJ1IjoibHZwcGIifQ.9RIwWbE6EVIB7Jy8lfazxZKfps8R18neRGMKwOiqnRM"
rel=""
style="color: rgb(54,55,55);text-decoration: underline;"
moz-do-not-send="true">soybeans from Brazil</a><span>,
which has become a major trading partner of
China, and a key ally.</span></p>
<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;"><a
href="https://substack.com/redirect/2698b691-a6ac-4db2-83b5-ab528f7d1c96?j=eyJ1IjoibHZwcGIifQ.9RIwWbE6EVIB7Jy8lfazxZKfps8R18neRGMKwOiqnRM"
rel=""
style="color: rgb(54,55,55);text-decoration: underline;"
moz-do-not-send="true">Brazil is the B in BRICS</a><span>;
it is one of the co-founders of the Global
South-led organization. The growing partnership
between China and Brazil shows how Beijing has
alternatives to the US.</span></p>
<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;">The
Trump administration drank its own kool-aid, and
believed that China was isolated. That was its
mistake.</p>
<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;">This
disastrous, self-destructive episode was eerily
reminiscent of Trump\u2019s first term (2017-21), when
he started the trade war on China.</p>
<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;"><span>Nearly
all of the revenue that the US government made
from imposing tariffs on China from 2018 to 2020
ended up being given to US farmers in the form
of relief payments and subsidies. Those were
equal to </span><a
href="https://substack.com/redirect/5a56f577-1d06-4fa9-a67b-25c201af9340?j=eyJ1IjoibHZwcGIifQ.9RIwWbE6EVIB7Jy8lfazxZKfps8R18neRGMKwOiqnRM"
rel=""
style="color: rgb(54,55,55);text-decoration: underline;"
moz-do-not-send="true">92% of the tariff
proceeds</a><span>.</span></p>
<div class="captioned-image-container-static"
style="font-size: 16px;line-height: 26px;margin: 32px auto;">
<figure style="width: 100%;margin: 0 auto;">
<table class="image-wrapper" width="100%"
border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"
data-component-name="Image2ToDOMStatic"
style="mso-padding-alt: 1em 0 1.6em;">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;"></td>
<td class="content" align="left"
width="1360" style="text-align: center;"><a
class="image-link" target="_blank"
href="https://substack.com/redirect/58ea0b51-aada-445a-84e0-1a37eafaaa2f?j=eyJ1IjoibHZwcGIifQ.9RIwWbE6EVIB7Jy8lfazxZKfps8R18neRGMKwOiqnRM"
rel=""
style="position: relative;flex-direction: column;align-items: center;padding: 0;width: auto;height: auto;border: none;text-decoration: none;display: block;margin: 0;"
moz-do-not-send="true"><img
class="wide-image"
data-attrs="{"src":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/d6eae893-2c21-4713-ba52-ecd36b174646_1360x790.webp","srcNoWatermark":null,"fullscreen":null,"imageSize":null,"height":790,"width":1360,"resizeWidth":null,"bytes":36764,"alt":null,"title":null,"type":"image/webp","href":null,"belowTheFold":true,"topImage":false,"internalRedirect":"https://www.geopoliticaleconomy.report/i/177709326?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd6eae893-2c21-4713-ba52-ecd36b174646_1360x790.webp","isProcessing":false,"align":null,"offset":false}"
alt="" width="550"
height="319.4852941176471"
src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!GliE!,w_1100,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd6eae893-2c21-4713-ba52-ecd36b174646_1360x790.webp"
style="border: none !important;vertical-align: middle;display: block;-ms-interpolation-mode: bicubic;height: auto;margin-bottom: 0;width: auto !important;max-width: 100% !important;margin: 0 auto;"
moz-do-not-send="true"></a></td>
<td style="text-align: center;"></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</figure>
</div>
<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;">Trump
has claimed that his tariffs will supposedly raise
lots of revenue for the US government \u2014 while
lying about the fact that that revenue comes from
working-class Americans, given that his tariffs
are a regressive tax on consumption of imported
goods.</p>
<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;">But
even much of the revenue that the US government
did earn from tariffs during Trump\u2019s first term
was given back to Americans in the form of relief
payments, to try to undo the economic harm caused
by Trump\u2019s trade war in the first place.</p>
<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;"><span>The
second Trump administration has been repeating
these same, self-destructive policies. It has
considered paying </span><a
href="https://substack.com/redirect/5d866ba3-4430-42b1-83cc-6dc0fec65db2?j=eyJ1IjoibHZwcGIifQ.9RIwWbE6EVIB7Jy8lfazxZKfps8R18neRGMKwOiqnRM"
rel=""
style="color: rgb(54,55,55);text-decoration: underline;"
moz-do-not-send="true">another $10 billion to US
farmers</a><span>, who have been harmed by
Trump\u2019s trade war, exactly like in his first
term.</span></p>
<p
style="margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;margin-bottom: 0;">Given
all of this information, it is no surprise that
Trump\u2019s trade war on China has failed. It is
contradictory, foolish, and suicidal; and it is
based on falsehoods that grossly underestimate
China\u2019s economic strengths, while hopelessly
minimizing the deep, structural problems in the US
economy.</p>
</div>
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