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<h1 class="gmail-">West\u2019s grip slips with Saudi\u2013Pakistan
security deal</h1>
<p class="gmail-">Riyadh\u2019s defense pact with Islamabad redraws
alliances, weakens Indian leverage, and hints at a new Muslim
deterrence framework beyond western control.</p>
<div class="gmail-another-name">
<p><a href="https://thecradle.co/authors/fm-shakil-100"
style="color:rgb(164,4,4)" moz-do-not-send="true">F.M.
Shakil</a></p>
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<p><span style="color:rgb(84,88,94)">SEP 23, 2025 - </span><font
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href="https://thecradle.co/articles/wests-grip-slips-with-saudi-pakistan-security-deal"
moz-do-not-send="true" class="moz-txt-link-freetext">https://thecradle.co/articles/wests-grip-slips-with-saudi-pakistan-security-deal</a></font></p>
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Photo Credit: The Cradle</span></div>
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<p>On 17 September, Riyadh rolled out the rare royal
purple carpet for Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz
Sharif \u2013 an honor previously reserved for global power
players like US President Donald Trump.</p>
<p>Accompanying him on the trip was Pakistan\u2019s Army
Chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir. His presence
highlighted that Riyadh values its <a
href="https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/saudi-arabia-nuclear-armed-pakistan-sign-mutual-defence-pact-2025-09-17/"
moz-do-not-send="true">defense pact</a> with a
nuclear power that, despite economic challenges,
remains militarily strong.</p>
<p><strong>Nuclear umbrella over Riyadh</strong></p>
<p>The centerpiece of their visit was the signing of a
\u201cStrategic Mutual Defense Agreement\u201d (<a
href="https://gulfnews.com/world/asia/pakistan/explained-pakistan-and-saudi-arabias-watershed-defence-pact-1.500273947"
moz-do-not-send="true">SMDA</a>), which declares
that an attack on either country will be considered an
attack on both.</p>
<p>Described by a senior Saudi official to <i>Reuters</i>
as covering \u201call military means,\u201d the pact has
triggered speculation that it includes a nuclear
umbrella, which would be a game-changing development
in the military balance of West Asia. </p>
<p>With <a href="https://t.co/ZCPNfZSodQ"
moz-do-not-send="true">81 percent</a> of Pakistan's
weapon imports coming from China, the agreement
implicitly aligns Saudi Arabia with the Chinese
military-industrial orbit, whether by design or
default. The kingdom has long been reliant on US arms,
training, and security guarantees.</p>
<p>The pact was signed just two days after an <a
href="https://thecradle.co/articles-id/33162"
moz-do-not-send="true">extraordinary joint session</a>
between the Arab League and the Organisation of
Islamic Cooperation (OIC) was called, following the 9
September Israeli <a
href="https://thecradle.co/articles/us-allies-are-not-off-limits-israels-qatar-strike-shatters-gulf-illusions"
moz-do-not-send="true">airstrikes on Qatar</a> \u2013 a
major non-NATO ally and Gulf neighbor \u2013 with no
substantial response from Washington, reinforcing
perceptions that western security commitments are both
selective and expendable.</p>
<p>Mushahid Hussain Syed, a former information minister
and chairman of Pakistan\u2019s Senate Defense Committee,
tells <i>The Cradle</i> that the US has pivoted away
from Arab allies toward Tel Aviv, leaving the region
disillusioned and increasingly leaning toward
alternatives.</p>
<blockquote>
<p>\u201cThe strategy of \u2018Greater Israel,\u2019 spearheaded by
Netanyahu, has involved military actions against
five more Muslim nations. Pakistan's recent triumph
against India has demonstrated its capacity to
contest Israel's significant ally, India, and
establish itself as a strategic alternative for Gulf
nations.\u201d </p>
</blockquote>
<p><strong>Toward an Islamic NATO?</strong></p>
<p>Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani
recently <a
href="https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/iraq-urges-formation-of-islamic-military-alliance-to-confront-israeli-policies/3687122"
moz-do-not-send="true">called</a> for an Islamic
military alliance, akin to NATO, in response to
Israel\u2019s airstrike on Doha. His proposal echoed
Egypt\u2019s earlier attempt to revive a joint Arab defense
force under the 1950 treaty \u2013 an initiative blocked
by <a href="https://thecradle.co/articles-id/33263"
moz-do-not-send="true">Qatar and the UAE</a>,
reportedly under US pressure.</p>
<p>A similar proposal has also come from Islamabad when
Pakistan's <a
href="https://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2025/09/17/755171/Pakistan-defense-minister-Muslim-countries-form-NATO-style-military-alliance-address-common-challenges-Israeli-attack-Qatar"
moz-do-not-send="true">Defense Minister, Khawaja
Asif</a>, urged Muslim countries to band together in
a NATO-like military alliance in light of the Israeli
aggression in Doha. </p>
<p>During an appearance on Geo TV last week, Asif drove
home the point that a united Muslim military front is
essential to tackle common security issues and fend
off outside dangers. Asif invoked the wider role of
the west in instigating instability in West Asia,
emphasizing the intricate network of US support for
Al-Qaeda and the CIA's covert actions that led to
Osama bin Laden's relocation to Sudan or the regime
change war in Syria.</p>
<p><strong>Is nuclear deterrence a part of the Pact?</strong></p>
<p>The nuclear dimension of the Riyadh\u2013Islamabad pact
remains opaque, but highly significant. While no
official statement from either side confirms the
presence of a nuclear component, Asif <a
href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/pakistan-saudi-arabia-islamabad-israel-hamas-b2829815.html"
moz-do-not-send="true">hinted</a> that Pakistan's
nuclear capabilities could be shared with Saudi Arabia
as part of the agreement.</p>
<p>Syed, however, clarifies to <i>The Cradle</i> that
Pakistan's nuclear doctrine is India-centric and that
its deterrence posture is South Asia-specific and does
not extend to the Persian Gulf.</p>
<blockquote>
<p>\u201cA novel security framework for the region appears
to be taking shape, focusing on Global South nations
such as Pakistan and Saudi Arabia, whereas the
Indo-Israeli Axis, previously supported by the US,
now finds itself significantly diminished.\u201d</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The defense agreement between Pakistan and Saudi
Arabia, he says, represents a notable achievement for
Pakistan, establishing it as a pivotal entity within
the geopolitical framework of West Asia, particularly
among Muslim countries.</p>
<blockquote>
<p>\u201cThe agreement is shaped by three significant
elements: the perceived neglect of Arab allies by
the United States, Israel's proactive maneuvers in
areas such as Iran, Qatar, Lebanon, Syria, and
Yemen, and Pakistan's recent triumph over India in
May.\u201d </p>
</blockquote>
<p><strong>New Delhi, Tel Aviv on alert</strong></p>
<p>Foreign media and analysts are already warning that
the pact may have unintended consequences for <a
href="https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c147gkxyyrmo"
moz-do-not-send="true">India</a> and <a
href="https://www.jpost.com/opinion/article-868266"
moz-do-not-send="true">Israel</a>, despite claims
that it targets neither. Others predict that this pact
is really about Riyadh\u2019s ambitions to <a
href="https://theprint.in/opinion/pakistan-strategic-pact-with-saudi-arabia-is-really-about-iran-and-blessed-by-us/2747247/"
moz-do-not-send="true">counter Iran</a> and Yemen's
Ansarallah-led government in the region.</p>
<p>Dr Abdul Rauf Iqbal, a senior research scholar at the
Institute for Strategic Studies, Research and Analysis
(ISSRA) at Islamabad's National Defence University
(NDU), tells <i>The Cradle</i> that New Delhi views
the pact with unease as it formalizes Saudi\u2013Pakistani
security ties that could entangle Riyadh in South
Asian rivalries, especially the India\u2013Pakistan border
tensions over Jammu and Kashmir:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>\u201cIt represents a setback for Prime Minister Modi's
foreign policy, potentially leading to Saudi
involvement in a prospective Indo\u2013Pak conflict.
Furthermore, future Saudi investments in Pakistan's
Gwadar port and economic corridors would challenge
India's regional influence and initiatives such as
the India-Middle East-Europe Corridor (IMEC).\u201d</p>
</blockquote>
<p>He adds that Saudi Arabia's pivot toward Pakistan
reflects a broader alignment of Muslim powers and
could push Tel Aviv to recalibrate its war on Gaza. It
also pressures Tel Aviv by placing Pakistan \u2013 a vocal
opponent of Israeli expansionism \u2013 into West Asian
affairs.</p>
<blockquote>
<p>\u201cThis agreement is not meant to counterbalance
Iran's regional influence, but rather to promote the
Saudi Iranian reconciliation, as Pakistan maintains
friendly relations with both nations. By formalizing
ties with nuclear-armed Pakistan, Riyadh secures a
credible deterrent as US security guarantees weaken.
While western think tanks view it as an effort to
contain Iran, the Arab world emphasizes it as
strengthening Gulf deterrence independently of
Washington.\u201d </p>
</blockquote>
<p>Indian concerns also stem from fears that the pact\u2019s
NATO-style clause could complicate ongoing operations
like <a
href="https://thecradle.co/articles/india-pakistan-war-the-winners-and-the-losers"
moz-do-not-send="true">Sindoor</a>, which remains
active in a limited capacity following the <a
href="https://thecradle.co/articles/india-and-pakistan-lock-horns-who-won-and-why"
moz-do-not-send="true">skirmish</a> between the two
nuclear powers in May, especially given that the Gulf
states\u2019 swift mediation to resolve the crisis reflects
their own interests with India and makes any military
action against it unlikely.</p>
<p>Secondly, India is strategically analyzing Pakistan's
nuclear capability, which could see a boost if Saudi
Arabia, having no such capacity, begins channeling
funds to share Pakistan\u2019s nuclear assets. </p>
<p><strong>A post-western Gulf order?</strong></p>
<p>While Tel Aviv and New Delhi remain publicly silent,
both capitals are undoubtedly scrutinizing the
fallout. Israel's failed assassination attempt on
Hamas leaders in Qatar, and India\u2019s pressure campaign
along the Line of Control, suggest that the <a
href="https://thecradle.co/articles/india-and-israel-lose-their-us-backed-dominance-in-asia"
moz-do-not-send="true">axis</a> is nervous about the
consequences of a Saudi\u2013Pakistani alliance. Israeli
media <a
href="https://www.haaretz.com/middle-east-news/2025-09-22/ty-article/.premium/why-the-saudi-levers-of-power-are-failing-against-trump-and-netanyahus-wall/00000199-7043-daea-adff-7fe34ed90000"
moz-do-not-send="true">downplayed</a> the
Saudi\u2013Pakistan defense deal, seeing it as a show of
force after Riyadh failed to influence Trump or West
Asian policy.</p>
<p>As Syed notes, \u201cThe traditional \u2018Oil for Security\u2019
framework, which once defined US relations with the
Middle East [West Asia], now serves as a remnant of a
bygone era. As Saudi economic power increasingly
reinforces China's backing of Pakistan, India may feel
vulnerable and isolated.\u201d</p>
<p>Mark Kinra, an Indian geopolitical analyst with a
focus on Pakistan and Balochistan, tells <i>The
Cradle</i> that this development holds particular
significance for India. New Delhi, he argues, has
sustained robust economic and diplomatic ties with
Saudi Arabia for many years, and the influx of Saudi
investments in India continues to expand:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>\u201cIndia will be meticulously observing the
progression of this agreement, particularly given
that its specific terms are not publicly available.
Any alteration in the regional security equilibrium
may influence India's strategic assessments, energy
security, and diplomatic relations.\u201d </p>
</blockquote>
<p>As Washington\u2019s selective security guarantees falter
and Israel escalates unchecked, Persian Gulf states
like Saudi Arabia are looking eastward for credible
deterrents and strategic autonomy. </p>
<p>By aligning with nuclear-armed Pakistan, Riyadh is
asserting greater independence from the western
military order. It also signals the emergence of a
multipolar Persian Gulf security architecture \u2013one
increasingly shaped by Global South coordination, not
western diktats.</p>
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