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<a class="gmail-domain gmail-reader-domain" href="https://www.middleeasteye.net/opinion/chinas-rise-exposing-cost-americas-alliance-israel">middleeasteye.net</a>
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<h1 class="gmail-reader-title">America's costly backing for Israel is enabling China's unstoppable rise</h1>
<div class="gmail-credits gmail-reader-credits">Sami Al-Arian</div>
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<div class="gmail-reader-estimated-time">July 16, 2025</div>
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<div class="gmail-moz-reader-content gmail-reader-show-element"><div id="gmail-readability-page-1" class="gmail-page"><div><p>The rivalry between the <a href="https://www.middleeasteye.net/countries/us" target="_blank">United States</a> and <a href="https://www.middleeasteye.net/countries/china" target="_blank">China</a> has emerged as the defining feature of 21st-century geopolitics.</p>
<p>As American global dominance frays after three decades of unipolarity, China's <a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/china/2021-10-19/inevitable-rivalry-cold-war" target="_blank">steady rise</a> as an economic, military and diplomatic soft power signals a tectonic shift in the global order.</p>
<p>At the same time, the US continues to entangle itself in <a href="https://www.middleeasteye.net/opinion/israels-war-iran-has-left-it-paralysed-and-scrambling-us-rescue" target="_blank">regional struggles</a> - particularly in the Middle East - that no longer yield strategic dividends but instead deepen perceptions of decline.</p>
<p>Nowhere is this clearer than in America's unwavering <a href="https://www.middleeasteye.net/opinion/www.middleeasteye.net/big-story/gaza-israel-7-october-destroyed-myth-military-invincibility" target="_blank">support</a> for <a href="https://www.middleeasteye.net/countries/israel" target="_blank">Israel</a>, especially after the 7 October <a href="https://www.middleeasteye.net/opinion/www.middleeasteye.net/big-story/gaza-israel-7-october-destroyed-myth-military-invincibility" target="_blank">attack</a>, which has begun to reshape global perceptions of the legitimacy of both <a href="https://www.middleeasteye.net/video/how-gaza-exposed-us-empire-never-matt-kennard" target="_blank">US power</a> and the Zionist enterprise.</p>
<p>Together, these developments mark the decline of US primacy and the
emergence of a new international order no longer shaped solely by
American imperial dominance.</p><h3>Strategic patience</h3>
<p>Since the end of the Cold War, China has pursued a long-term <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/articles/the-long-game-chinas-grand-strategy-to-displace-american-order/" target="_blank">strategy</a> of "strategic patience" - a multidimensional <a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/china/xis-gamble" target="_blank">approach</a> that emphasises economic growth, military modernisation and multilateral engagement.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/china-middle-east-us-bill-seeks-counter-growing-influence" target="_blank">Belt and Road Initiative</a>
(BRI) is the flagship of this strategy, aiming to weave a web of
infrastructure, trade and investment agreements across Eurasia, Africa
and Latin America.</p>
<p>The initiative has allowed China not only to secure vital resources
and influence global trade routes, but also to export its development
model while bypassing western-dominated institutions.</p>
<blockquote>
<p>China's explosive growth has allowed it to secure vital resources,
shape global trade routes and bypass western-dominated institutions</p>
</blockquote>
<div><p>China's economic growth has been staggering. In 1992, its <a href="https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD" target="_blank">GDP</a>
was just 6 percent of that of the US, at $367bn, while the US stood at
$6.52 trillion. Today, it exceeds 65 percent, at $20 trillion <a href="https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO" target="_blank">compared</a> with $30 trillion for the US. </p><p>
This explosive growth has funded an equally impressive military
modernisation programme. While China has not yet supplanted the US as
the dominant global military power, it increasingly asserts itself
regionally, particularly in the South and East China Seas.</p></div>
<p>With a military <a href="https://www.csis.org/podcasts/chinapower/best-chinapower-implications-chinas-conventional-missile-arsenal-conversation" target="_blank">doctrine</a>
focused on anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) capabilities, China seeks to
deter US intervention near its borders - an essential step towards
becoming the dominant power in East Asia.</p>
<p>In parallel, China has actively contributed to alternative international institutions that challenge western hegemony.</p>
<p>Through <a href="https://www.middleeasteye.net/opinion/can-brics-end-us-hegemony-middle-east" target="_blank">Brics</a>,
the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), and financial bodies such
as the New Development Bank, China and its partners are steadily
constructing a multipolar world order - one that erodes the primacy of
the US-led liberal international system.</p>
<h3>US grand strategy</h3>
<p>After the collapse of the Soviet Union, the US emerged as the world's
sole superpower - a unipolar moment it was determined to extend
indefinitely.</p>
<p>Since 1991, US grand strategy has revolved around preventing the rise
of peer competitors, especially in the world's most critical regions:
East Asia, Europe, and the Persian Gulf-Middle East.</p>
<p>The logic was simple: if no other power became dominant in its own region, none could challenge American global supremacy.</p><p>To that end, the US pursued two major policies to weaken its
potential rivals in Europe and East Asia - both of which ultimately
failed.</p>
<p>In Europe, it <a href="https://www.middleeasteye.net/russia-fsu/2014-08-18/why-ukraine-crisis-west-s-fault" target="_blank">expanded Nato</a> eastward from 16 members in 1991 to 32 today, attempting to contain or politically transform <a href="https://www.middleeasteye.net/countries/russia" target="_blank">Russia</a>.
The inclusion of post-Soviet states and support for pro-western
movements such as the "colour revolutions" were intended to undermine
Moscow's influence.</p>
<p>Instead, these actions triggered a powerful backlash. Viewing Nato
enlargement as an existential threat, Russia reasserted itself,
culminating in the 2022 <a href="https://www.middleeasteye.net/opinion/www.middleeasteye.net/topics/russia-ukraine-war" target="_blank">invasion of Ukraine</a> - a conflict that has shifted in Moscow's favour despite massive western military aid and economic support for Kyiv.</p>
<p>Since the 1990s, the US has pursued a policy of <a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/china/china-reckoning" target="_blank">engagement</a>
with China, assuming that economic integration would inevitably
liberalise the Chinese political system and bind it to the US-led
international order.</p>
<p>China was admitted to the <a href="https://www.wto.org/english/thewto_e/countries_e/china_e.htm" target="_blank">World Trade Organization</a>
in 2001 and became a hub for US and global investment. But rather than
transforming into a neoliberal democracy, China retained its
authoritarian governance structure while amassing extraordinary economic
wealth and technological power.</p>
<p>This, in turn, enabled a surge in military spending and regional assertiveness - precisely what Washington had hoped to prevent.</p>
<h3>Imperial overreach</h3>
<p>The third pillar of US hegemony lies in the Persian Gulf and the
broader Middle East. Control over this oil-rich region has long been
central to US strategic planning - not only for energy access but to
maintain the primacy of the <a href="https://www.middleeasteye.net/opinion/can-brics-end-us-hegemony-middle-east" target="_blank">US dollar</a>.</p>
<p>After its 1971 delinking from gold, the dollar's status as the global
reserve currency was sustained by petrodollar recycling. Ensuring that
oil is traded in dollars and that regional regimes remain friendly and
under American influence has been critical.</p><p>After 9/11, US foreign policy took an ambitious and hubristic turn towards social engineering. It invaded Afghanistan and <a href="https://www.middleeasteye.net/topics/iraq-war" target="_blank">Iraq</a> under the banner of democratisation, regime change and national security.</p><p>As former Nato commander General Wesley Clark <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2003/9/22/us-plans-to-attack-seven-muslim-states" target="_blank">revealed</a> in 2003, the Pentagon had plans to attack seven Muslim countries in five years: Iraq, <a href="https://www.middleeasteye.net/countries/syria" target="_blank">Syria</a>, <a href="https://www.middleeasteye.net/countries/lebanon" target="_blank">Lebanon</a>, <a href="https://www.middleeasteye.net/countries/libya" target="_blank">Libya</a>, Somalia, <a href="https://www.middleeasteye.net/countries/sudan" target="_blank">Sudan</a> and <a href="https://www.middleeasteye.net/countries/iran" target="_blank">Iran</a>.</p>
<p>But these grand designs unravelled in the deserts and mountains of
the region. The US was defeated in both Iraq and Afghanistan, despite
massive military expenditures and the loss of thousands of soldiers.</p>
<p>The dream of remaking the Middle East in America's image collapsed into chaos, insurgency and failure.</p>
<h3>Strategic liability</h3>
<p>A central dimension of US Middle East policy has always revolved around its <a href="https://www.middleeasteye.net/topics/us-israel-relations" target="_blank">relationship</a> with Israel.</p>
<p>Since Israel's <a href="https://www.middleeasteye.net/opinion/more-israel-kills-more-west-portrays-it-victim" target="_blank">1967 victory</a> over three Arab states, it has been viewed by the American establishment as a valuable strategic ally.</p>
<p>But Israel is not merely a foreign policy concern; it is deeply
embedded in American domestic politics through the influence of the <a href="https://www.middleeasteye.net/topics/israel-lobby" target="_blank">Israel lobby</a>.</p>
<p>The rise of the <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/j.1475-4967.2006.00260.x" target="_blank">neoconservatives</a>
in the early 2000s - figures such as Paul Wolfowitz, Douglas Feith,
Scooter Libby, Elliott Abrams and Richard Perle - marked the increasing
convergence of US strategic goals with those of the Israeli and
Zionist-American right.</p>
<p></p>
<p>Ever since, American "Israel-firsters" have not merely knocked at the door of policymaking; they now <a href="https://www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacje/analyses/2025-03-06/israels-stance-donald-trumps-second-term?utm_source=chatgpt.com" target="_blank">occupy</a> multiple seats at the table.</p>
<p>Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's 2023 speech at the UN <a href="https://www.middleeasteye.net/big-story/netanyahu-washington-visit-paved-way-regional-war" target="_blank">encapsulated</a>
Israel's ambitions. Promoting the India-Middle East-Europe Economic
Corridor (IMEC), Netanyahu positioned Israel as a central node in global
trade and infrastructure, while completely ignoring the Palestinians.</p>
<p>The speech embodied Israel's hegemonic aspirations and bid to solidify <a href="https://www.middleeasteye.net/opinion/www.middleeasteye.net/topics/israel-normalisation-deals" target="_blank">normalisation</a> with Arab and Islamic states, particularly <a href="https://www.middleeasteye.net/countries/saudi-arabia" target="_blank">Saudi Arabia</a>, Indonesia and Pakistan.</p>
<p>But this disregard helped provoke the 7 October 2023 attack by Hamas - an operation that <a href="https://www.middleeasteye.net/countries/saudi-arabia" target="_blank">shattered</a> the illusion of Israeli invincibility and triggered a cascade of strategic losses for the Zionist project.</p>
<h3>Historic rupture</h3>
<p>The Toufan al-Aqsa operation marked a historic rupture in the region's balance of power.</p>
<p>Despite possessing one of the most technologically advanced armies in
the world and a vast intelligence apparatus, the Zionist regime was
caught entirely off guard. The operation exposed deep failures in
Israel's deterrence strategy, military doctrine and internal cohesion.</p>
<p>In response, Israel <a href="https://www.middleeasteye.net/topics/israel-war-gaza" target="_blank">launched</a> one of the most devastating genocidal campaigns in modern history, reducing Gaza's civilian infrastructure to rubble.</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Despite 21 months of bombing, siege and genocide, the Palestinian
resistance remains undefeated - waging a war of attrition and
negotiating from a position of resilience</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Tens of thousands of Palestinians were killed - two-thirds of them
women and children - while hundreds of thousands were injured and
millions displaced.</p>
<p>Yet despite 21 months of continuous bombing, siege and genocide, the
Palestinian resistance remains undefeated. It continues a painful war of
attrition and engages in negotiations from a position of <a href="https://www.middleeasteye.net/opinion/gaza-ceasefire-palestinian-resilience-prevails-israeli-genocidal-war" target="_blank">resilience</a>.</p>
<p>Israel's military goal of achieving "total victory" by dismantling
Hamas, exiling its leaders or disarming its military structures remains
unrealised.</p>
<p>This has led to a strategic crisis. Israel's deterrence doctrine -
inflicting overwhelming punishment to deter adversaries - has failed.
Its regional image has <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/oct/06/israel-iran-war-idf-lebanon-military-doctrine" target="_blank">eroded</a>.</p>
<p>Its intelligence services have lost credibility. Social cohesion
within Israel has fractured under the weight of prolonged war and
economic strain. Military morale has plummeted, while thousands of
Israelis have either been displaced or <a href="https://www.middleeasteye.net/opinion/palestinians-are-massacred-staying-israelis-are-desperate-flee" target="_blank">emigrated</a> due to growing instability.</p>
<p>Internationally, Israel's narrative of victimhood has crumbled.
Graphic footage of massacres, starvation and mass destruction has
flooded social media.</p>
<p>Public opinion has <a href="https://www.middleeasteye.net/opinion/why-new-york-times-so-afraid-zohran-mamdani" target="_blank">shifted</a> dramatically, particularly in the US and Europe, with millions taking to the <a href="https://www.middleeasteye.net/topics/gaza-protests?page=3" target="_blank">streets</a> - including significant numbers of Jewish youth - to stand in solidarity with Palestinians.</p>
<p>Major institutions such as the International Court of Justice and the
International Criminal Court have taken unprecedented steps, issuing <a href="https://www.middleeasteye.net/topics/israel-icj-case" target="_blank">genocide warnings</a> and <a href="https://www.middleeasteye.net/topics/icc-arrest-warrants" target="_blank">arrest warrants</a> for senior Israeli officials, including Netanyahu.</p>
<p>Calls for boycott, divestment and sanctions are <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/jul/11/bds-movement-palestine-freedom" target="_blank">growing</a>. The economy has suffered major <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/can-israels-economy-withstand-the-current-conflict/a-67479261" target="_blank">setbacks</a>, tourism has <a href="https://www.ynetnews.com/travel/article/hjqikf47gx" target="_blank">collapsed</a>, and reverse <a href="https://www.ynetnews.com/business/article/byajrlgrye" target="_blank">migration</a> threatens long-term demographic stability.</p>
<h3>Fractured alliance</h3>
<p>While Washington and Tel Aviv share strategic aims - defeating Palestinian resistance, <a href="https://www.middleeasteye.net/opinion/www.middleeasteye.net/topics/israel-attacks-iran" target="_blank">containing Iran</a> and preserving regional primacy - they diverge in their long-term goals.</p>
<p>Israel seeks regional hegemony, driven by maximalist visions such as the "<a href="https://www.middleeasteye.net/opinion/israel-middle-east-for-ever-wars-pave-way-demise" target="_blank">Greater Israel</a>" project.</p>
<div>
<p>Why Netanyahu is frantically trying to pull the US into Israel's war on Iran</p></div>
<p>This includes expanding settlements in the West Bank, as championed
by extremist cabinet member Bezalel Smotrich, and provocative moves
around the al-Aqsa compound, pushed by racist minister Itamar Ben Gvir.</p>
<p>The destruction of Gaza and escalating settler violence in the West
Bank appear calculated to induce mass Palestinian expulsion to "solve"
Israel's <a href="https://www.middleeasteye.net/opinion/israels-genocide-gaza-war-demographics" target="_blank">demographic dilemma</a> and avoid permanent apartheid.</p>
<p>The US, by contrast, prefers managed stability - weakening Iran,
securing energy markets, curbing Russian and Chinese influence, and
preserving a compliant regional security order with allies like Israel
and Saudi Arabia.</p>
<p>With Israel's failure to subdue the resistance militarily, Washington
aims to end the war while still realising its objectives and preserving
the regional order.</p>
<h3>New order</h3>
<p>The rise of Trump's nativist "Maga" movement, the collapse of US
strategic credibility, the emergence of China as a peer competitor, and
the regional unravelling of Israeli deterrence have together created an
opening for a historic reorientation of global power.</p>
<p>For the Arab and Muslim world, this moment presents an urgent
imperative: to break free from foreign domination and Zionist hegemonic
control.</p>
<p>The western-led international system has shown itself <a href="https://www.middleeasteye.net/opinion/gaza-genocide-israel-burning-alive-destroying-world-as-we-know-it" target="_blank">unwilling or unable</a> to hold Israel accountable for its crimes - despite overwhelming evidence of genocide, war crimes and ethnic cleansing.</p>
<p></p>
<p>This exposes a structurally unjust order in which sheer power, not
law, determines legitimacy. The fundamental interest of Arab and Muslim
peoples lies in dismantling this system and moving towards a multipolar
order grounded in justice, sovereignty and human dignity.</p>
<p>More critically, the unifying struggle today must be the eradication
of foreign domination and Zionist influence. Without this, no revival -
whether based on democracy, economic reform, scientific progress,
Islamic governance or civilisational renewal - can succeed.</p>
<blockquote>
<p>For the Arab and Muslim world, this moment presents an urgent
imperative: to break free from foreign domination and Zionist hegemonic
control</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Israeli hegemony, backed by US military, political and financial
support, is designed precisely to thwart any movement towards
independence, unity or development. It is a blockade against the future.</p>
<p>Only by confronting and dismantling these structures of domination
can the region begin a genuine renaissance. Sovereignty and
self-determination cannot coexist with fragmentation, dependency and
occupation. This struggle must take precedence over all others - not as a
vague ideal, but as a strategic necessity.</p>
<p>The twilight of American primacy may not come overnight, but it is clearly underway.</p>
<p>Its uncritical alignment with Israeli extremism risks sparking another wave of regional unrest - an <a href="https://www.middleeasteye.net/topics/arab-spring" target="_blank">Arab Spring</a>
2.0 - directed not only at domestic autocrats, but also at dismantling
Zionist racist structures and the US imperial order that sustains them.</p>
<p>In this critical moment, the peoples of the Arab and Muslim world
must chart a new course - one that asserts agency, reclaims sovereignty
and redefines their place in a just and multipolar global order.</p>
<p><em>The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Eye.</em></p>
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