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<div class="gmail-domain-border"></div><h1 class="gmail-reader-title">Breaking Point: How Israel Will Drag Lebanon to Civil War over Normalization</h1>July 9, 2025</div>
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<img src="https://www.palestinechronicle.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/Hezbollah_SitIn_video.png" alt="" title="Hezbollah_SitIn_video" class="gmail-moz-reader-block-img" width="467" height="313" style="margin-right: 25px;">
Thousands of people gathered as Hezbollah called for a sit-in in Beirut. (Photo: video grab)
<p><strong>By <a href="https://www.palestinechronicle.com/writers/robert-inlakesh" title="Display all articles for Robert Inlakesh">Robert Inlakesh</a></strong></p>
<blockquote>
<h3>Israel\u2019s goal is to collapse Lebanon through triggering civil war
and any move to normalize ties with Tel Aviv would inevitably trigger
chaos.</h3>
</blockquote>
<p>The Trump administration\u2019s push to force the pro-US government in
Beirut to normalize ties with Israel and force Hezbollah to disarm, will
lead to civil war. Instead of a \u201cpeace\u201d agreement, they would be
signing their own nation\u2019s death sentence, especially with the dangers
presented to Lebanon\u2019s stability from Syria in such a circumstance.</p>
<p>The new Lebanese administration, led by President Joseph Aoun and
Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, has revealed itself to be operating under
the thumb of Washington. Despite countless claims of Iranian influence
inside the Eastern Mediterranean nation, it is clearly the United States
that calls the shots.</p>
<p>On Monday, Thomas Barrack, who serves as Trump\u2019s ambassador to
Turkiye and envoy to Syria, expressed that he was \u201cunbelievably
satisfied\u201d with Lebanon\u2019s responses to US requests to bring Beirut into
the fold of the so-called \u201cAbraham Accords\u201d and disarm Hezbollah.</p>
<p>Back in May, the Lebanese Prime Minister stated that \u201cNormalization
is part and parcel of the peace we would like to see tomorrow and not
the day after\u201d, in an interview with CNN. His statements were so
disconnected with the popular will of his nation\u2019s population that the
reporter interviewing him was stunned and picked up on some of his
flawed logic.</p>
<p>However, these positions that have been expressed towards the US
Trump administration are deeply unpopular with the vast preponderance of
the Lebanese public. Let alone the Shia population which supports
Hezbollah and the Amal Movement.</p>
<p>Time and time again, Hezbollah Secretary General Sheikh Naim Qassem
has expressed his Party\u2019s position regarding the handing over of weapons
to the State. He has made it crystal clear that such a move is off the
table and that \u201cthe resistance will not lay down its weapons\u201d,
especially when faced with the ongoing Israeli violations of Lebanon\u2019s
territorial integrity.</p>
<p>While US think tanks, politicians and American corporate media all
speak of Lebanon as ripe for a normalization agreement due to the
destruction of Hezbollah, many going as far as to claim that the Party
is finished, the reality on the ground paints another picture entirely.</p>
<p>Hezbollah, contrary to what is pushed for public consumption on the
media, is far from over and has been mobilizing its base of support
since the conclusion of the so-called ceasefire agreement in November of
last year. Since then, Israel has committed nearly 4,000 violations of
the ceasefire, as Hezbollah has evacuated countless positions in
southern Lebanon and not responded to the daily attacks committed by the
Israelis.</p>
<p>Although some see this as capitulation, it is clear that the Party
has been seeking to weed out collaborators, spies and reposition certain
military assets that were revealed previously or exposed to strikes.</p>
<p>Simultaneously, as the Lebanese government entertains normalization
and Hezbollah gears up for future confrontations, with its 100,000 man
strong force, the Syrian government in Damascus is closely coordinating
with the Israelis on so-called \u201csecurity issues\u201d.</p>
<p>It is being reported across Israeli Hebrew media that Damascus will
sign some kind of an interim agreement with Tel Aviv, its goal being to
curb Iranian influence in the region and combat Hezbollah, along with
the Palestinian groups.</p>
<p>Already, since the new Hayat Tahrir al-Sham government came to power
in Syria, its militia forces have launched around a dozen assaults
against Lebanese territory. Many hardline Salafist factions have been
involved in such fighting. In addition to this, there is an active
campaign to crack down on black market weapons transfers to Hezbollah,
which have been frequent due to the collapse of the Syrian State.</p>
<p>The new government in Damascus dissolved the Syrian Arab Army and
Security Forces, replacing them with members of its various allied
militia forces. The country\u2019s state is one of instability, where local
factions, gangs and militias have more control over much of the country
than the official government does.</p>
<p>This is all important, because given the growing ties between Ahmed
al-Shara\u2019a\u2019s new government and Israel, it could eventually translate to
a direct threat to Lebanese territorial sovereignty.</p>
<p>Israel\u2019s goal is to collapse Lebanon through triggering civil war and
any move to normalize ties with Tel Aviv would inevitably trigger
chaos. It is even possible that an alliance could be formed between the
right wing Lebanese Forces party, Israel and Salafist militia groups, to
fight against Hezbollah, an unprecedented situation which the Lebanese
Army would not be able to contain.</p>
<p>The main reason behind the theatre claiming Hezbollah to have been
defeated is for Israeli public consumption, also providing the United
States with the semblance of a regional victory against Iran.</p>
<p>In reality, the Hezbollah base was heavily impacted by the war, as
was the wider public who sided with their nation\u2019s resistance to
Israel\u2019s attack. The Shia are also traumatised by the indiscriminate
pager attack and death of Seyyed Hassan Nasrallah, for which they do not
feel revenge have been dealt.</p>
<p>Israel knows all of this information and likely understands that
Hezbollah will eventually seek to launch a devastating assault on it.
Which is why the prospect of a renewed attack on Lebanon is highly
likely in the coming months.</p>
<p>The US and Israeli surveillance over the nation has greatly
intensified since the end of the 12-day Iran-Israel battle, indicating
they are trying to collect more intelligence to replenish target banks.</p>
<p>Reports have emerged recently, originating with al-Akhbar News, that
the Lebanese government has been discussing disarmament with Hezbollah.
An informed source in Lebanon told the Palestine Chronicle that this is
true, but that it is simply a formality and \u201cwon\u2019t go anywhere\u201d. This
aligns with the Party\u2019s public position. Despite being very friendly
with the current administration in Beirut, Hezbollah is adamant that its
weapons will remain.</p>
<p>The reason why normalisation talks are even on the books at this
point, is because a large portion of the Lebanese senior leadership are
stooges of the US and Washington is seeking to sow division inside
Lebanon. The goal is to ultimately destroy Lebanon, allowing for a
similar disintegration of the State as has occurred in Syria.</p>
<p><em>(The Palestine Chronicle)</em></p>
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<p><br></p>
<p><span><em>\u2013 Robert Inlakesh is a journalist, writer, and documentary
filmmaker. He focuses on the Middle East, specializing in Palestine. He
contributed this article to The Palestine Chronicle. </em></span></p></div>
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