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<h1 class="gmail-reader-title">Iran poised to unleash strategic military surprises if Israel ignites fire again</h1>
<div class="gmail-credits gmail-reader-credits">Presstv</div>
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<div class="gmail-reader-estimated-time">July 3, 2025</div>
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<div class="gmail-moz-reader-content gmail-reader-show-element"><div id="gmail-readability-page-1" class="gmail-page"><div><p><strong>By Mohammad Molaei</strong></p><p><strong>Experience
has shown that the Zionist regime has never adhered to ceasefire
agreements, not in Gaza and not in Lebanon. So, naturally, Iran remains
fully prepared if the regime again resorts to foolhardy military
adventurism after unilaterally declaring a truce.</strong></p><img src="cid:ii_mco2vq2f0" alt="ccd9a5b4-2017-4e21-8425-960224753262.jpg" width="467" height="263"><br><p>The
arrival of military cargo aircraft from the United States and other
allies to the occupied territories in recent days is a clear indication
that something is fishy. Although detailed information about Israel\u2019s
military contracts following the 12-day war of aggression against Iran
is unavailable due to confidentiality, credible reports provide some
details of these preparations.</p><p>According to reports, the United
States has sent more missile defense systems worth hundreds of millions
of dollars to strengthen Israel\u2019s air defense, which was weakened in the
recent war.</p><p>Furthermore, according to the US Department of the
Treasury, the country has approved the sale of $510 million worth of
ammunition to Israel. This package includes 3,840 guidance kits for
2,000-pound bunker-buster bombs (BLU-109) and 3,280 satellite-guidance
kits for 500-pound bombs (MK82).</p><p>The contract includes logistical,
technical, and engineering support, with Boeing as the primary
contractor. The rapid transfer of part of this equipment from US
military stockpiles to Israel indicates the urgent need for the Israeli
Air Force to reinforce its military capabilities.</p><p>Additionally,
reports indicate an increase in joint Israeli-American military
exercises and deployment of advanced radar systems in the occupied
territories, all suggesting readiness for another potential
confrontation with the Islamic Republic.</p><p>Reports of increased
simulated air strike exercises against distant targets, deployment of
AN/TPY-2 radars linked to the THAAD system, and reinforcement of Israeli
military bases in the occupied territories further confirm this trend.
These measures were undertaken not only to rebuild Israel\u2019s military
capabilities after the 12-day war but also to indicate planning for
offensive operations.</p><p>On June 13, 2025, the Israeli regime
launched an unprovoked and unlawful military aggression on Iran,
targeting its military and nuclear installations and assassinating many
senior military commanders, nuclear scientists, as well as ordinary
civilians.</p><p>In the initial hours, Israel\u2019s war minister Israel Katz
declared a state of emergency across the occupied territories,
indicating Israel\u2019s readiness for a rapid Iranian military response.</p><p>Hours
after the Israeli aggression, Iran responded by launching suicide
drones toward the occupied territories. These drones were designed to
engage the Israeli defense systems, especially the Iron Dome, to create
an opportunity for partial reconstruction of Iran\u2019s air defenses.</p><p>It
was followed by the first wave of missile attacks. These attacks, part
of the \u201cTrue Promise 3\u201d operation, involved ballistic and hypersonic
missiles from various Iranian bases in cities such as Tehran, Isfahan,
Kermanshah, Shiraz, and Tabriz.</p><p>During 12 days of the imposed war,
Iran launched over 500 ballistic, cruise, and hypersonic missiles in 22
operational waves. These included missiles such as \u201cEmad\u201d with pinpoint
accuracy, \u201cKheibar Shekan\u201d with high maneuverability, \u201cHaj Qasem\u201d with
medium range, and for the first time, \u201cSejjil\u201d with a range of 2,000
kilometers and hypersonic speed. These strikes had profound and
multifaceted impacts on Israel\u2019s military-industrial infrastructure.</p><p><strong>Impact of Iranian retaliation</strong></p><p>These
retaliatory attacks targeted the Bazan oil refinery in Haifa Bay, which
produced 200,000 barrels of oil per day and supplied over 60 percent of
Israel\u2019s fuel consumption, including gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel.
They also caused extensive fires in storage tanks, destruction of
pipelines, and a complete halt in refinery operations. Bazan Company
announced that returning to normal operations by October 2025 is
impossible due to the need for major repairs and infrastructure
reconstruction.</p><p>The crisis forced the Zionist regime to import up
to 110,000 barrels of fuel daily. Considering global oil prices, this
daily import imposed an approximately $8 million financial burden on
Israel\u2019s economy. At the same time, global concerns about a potential
closure of the Strait of Hormuz\u2014the main route for 20% of the world\u2019s
oil\u2014led to a 12% increase in global oil prices, impacting energy markets
in Europe and Asia.</p><p>The Haifa power plant, with a capacity of
1,020 megawatts and supplying about 7 to 8 percent of Israel\u2019s
electricity, was targeted by Iranian ballistic missiles, resulting in
the destruction of internal stations and widespread outages in northern
regions. The Leviathan gas platform, which provides 40% of Israel\u2019s
electricity through natural gas, also suffered severe damage to
extraction and transmission infrastructure, causing a 30% reduction in
output. This vulnerability led to intermittent power outages in Haifa,
Tel Aviv, and surrounding areas.</p><p>In response, Israel turned to
renewable energy development and increased the share of solar power in
its energy mix from 10% to 40%. However, disruptions in the global
supply chain and difficulties importing solar equipment due to sanctions
and regional tensions delayed new projects by up to two years, imposing
an annual cost of approximately $300 million on the regime\u2019s economy.
This trend also eroded foreign investor confidence in Israel\u2019s energy
market.</p><p>In terms of human and material losses, Iranian retaliatory
attacks claimed several lives, though due to sweeping censorship, the
actual death toll is not known. Hebrew media such as Haaretz and Yedioth
Ahronoth reported massive damage to approximately 32,000 structures in
Tel Aviv, Haifa, Bat Yam, and Petah Tikva \u2013 most of them
military-industrial sites embedded in residential areas.</p><p>While
Hebrew sources claimed that only 34 out of about 500 missiles launched
by Iran penetrated Israeli defense systems, this figure is inconsistent
with the reported extent of damage. Accepting Israel\u2019s claims would
imply that each missile, on average, damaged 941 homes, which is
logically improbable given the destructive capacity, geographical
dispersion, and population density of targeted areas. This contradiction
sparked widespread criticism in Israeli media and military circles.</p><p><strong>Failure of Israeli air defenses</strong></p><p>From
a psychological and political perspective, the inability of Israel\u2019s
advanced defense systems to intercept Iranian hypersonic missiles such
as \u201cKheibar Shekan\u201d and \u201cSejjil,\u201d with high accuracy and speeds
exceeding Mach 5, undermined the regime\u2019s military prestige. Reports of
failures in the Iron Dome, David\u2019s Sling, and Arrow 3 systems against
Iran\u2019s simultaneous multi-layered attacks triggered a wave of domestic
criticism against Netanyahu\u2019s war cabinet.</p><p>The psychological
pressure from these attacks led to the temporary migration of
approximately 50,000 people from northern areas to central and southern
occupied territories, increasing public anxiety and reducing trust in
military and political institutions.</p><p>Iranian attacks on Haifa
port\u2014the largest commercial port in the occupied territories\u2014also
disrupted supply chains for essential goods such as food and medical
equipment, increasing import prices by 15%, which imposed additional
pressure on households.</p><p>Ultimately, Iran, by executing 22 waves of
missile and drone attacks, using satellite intelligence, intelligence
networks, and precise coordination among combat units, succeeded in
imposing unprecedented military, economic, and psychological costs on
the Zionist regime.</p><p>The unilateral ceasefire declared by the
United States on behalf of the regime on June 24, 2025 reflected
Israel\u2019s inability to continue the aggression beyond 12 days. This
development strengthened Iran\u2019s deterrence power in the region and had
broad geopolitical consequences, including reinforcing the axis of
resistance and increasing global attention to Iran\u2019s military
capabilities.</p><p>Experience has shown that in the event of a
ceasefire violation by the Zionist regime and renewed attacks on Iranian
soil, the armed forces of the Islamic Republic, especially the Islamic
Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC), possess multiple options\u2014leveraging
advanced military capabilities and modern strategies\u2014to inflict heavy
damage on Israel\u2019s infrastructure and interests, potentially altering
the regional balance of power significantly.</p><p>Analysis of images
released from boosters of missiles launched towards the occupied
territories, which fell in target areas after warhead release, indicates
that during the first three days of the 12-day war (June 13 to July 25,
2025), the IRGC employed advanced solid-fuel missiles.</p><p>However,
in the following days, it deliberately used liquid-fuel missiles with
older technology. This intelligent and strategic choice reflects the
preservation of modern missiles for more critical phases of the war.
Notably, no reports have emerged of the destruction of solid-fuel
missile launchers, suggesting that Iran has reserved these weapons for
intensified stages, particularly if Israel attacks key infrastructure
such as oil facilities in Khuzestan or power plants.</p><p>Past Iranian
strikes on the Bazan refinery demonstrated the vulnerability of Israel\u2019s
traditional energy infrastructure. Therefore, if the war resumes, Iran
will likely target alternative Israeli infrastructure such as solar
farms in the Negev Desert and central regions.</p><p>These facilities,
due to their dispersion, dependency on imported equipment, and lack of
effective defense systems, represent vulnerable targets. Their
destruction could cause wider blackouts and impose additional
psychological and economic pressure on Israeli settler society.</p><p>Comparison
of operations \u201cTrue Promise 1 and 2\u201d with \u201cTrue Promise 3\u201d reveals
significant advancements in Iran\u2019s missile accuracy. Use of hypersonic
missiles such as \u201cSejjil\u201d and \u201cKheibar Shekan,\u201d with pinpoint accuracy
and speeds exceeding Mach 5, has rendered Israel\u2019s advanced defense
systems\u2014Iron Dome, David\u2019s Sling, and Arrow 3\u2014ineffective against
simultaneous multi-layered attacks.</p><p><strong>Upcoming surprises for the enemy</strong></p><p>This
progress enables Iran, in case of escalation, to deploy the preserved
solid-fuel missiles to deliver devastating shocks to Israel\u2019s critical
infrastructure, particularly remaining refineries, Haifa\u2019s ammonia
tanks, and offshore gas platforms like Leviathan and Tamar.</p><p>Beyond
missiles, Iran can deploy advanced drones such as \u201cShahed-149\u201d and
\u201cArash-2,\u201d boasting ranges over 2,000 kilometers and capable of carrying
heavy warheads. These drones fly at low altitudes and on unconventional
paths to evade Israeli radar systems, enabling targeting of command
centers, Nevatim and Ramon airbases, and even the Dimona nuclear
facility.</p><p>Moreover, according to regional sources, Iran is likely
to employ cyber capabilities concurrently with physical attacks.
Cyberattacks on electricity grids, communications, and banking systems
could multiply the effectiveness of missile strikes and extensively
disrupt Israel\u2019s infrastructure. Previously, cyberattacks attributed to
Iran caused malfunctions in Israeli banking and digital systems.</p><p>Within
this framework, Iran may engage the Axis of Resistance, particularly
Hezbollah in Lebanon, to launch missile and rocket attacks from the
northern front. This would force the Zionist regime to divide its
defensive resources across multiple fronts, significantly reducing the
overall effectiveness of its defense systems.</p><p>Hezbollah, with an
arsenal exceeding 150,000 rockets and missiles, is capable of targeting
Haifa, Acre, and other northern cities, while Iran targets Tel Aviv and
occupied Al-Quds from its own territory.</p><p>This multifaceted
strategy\u2014a combination of solid-fuel missiles, offensive drones,
cyberattacks, and proxy operations\u2014entangles the Zionist regime in a war
of attrition. Simultaneous disruption of energy, economic, and military
infrastructures will further undermine public trust in Netanyahu\u2019s
cabinet.</p><p>Furthermore, if Israeli attacks continue, Iran may employ
its space capabilities, such as the Noor-2 and Noor-3 satellites, to
gather real-time, precise intelligence on Israeli military movements.
This capability allows Iran to deliver rapid, accurate responses based
on real data to the regime\u2019s maneuvers.</p><p>In the event of ceasefire
violations by the Zionist regime and renewed attacks on Iranian
territory, China\u2014as a key strategic partner of the Islamic Republic\u2014can
play a vital role in bolstering Iran\u2019s deterrence capabilities by
supplying advanced weaponry.</p><p>These include long-range air defense
systems, microwave anti-drone technologies, electronic warfare systems,
and advanced drones and missiles.</p><p>China, which purchases a large
portion of Iran\u2019s exported oil and has made key investments in projects
like the North-South Corridor, has expanded its military cooperation
with Iran in recent years. In the event of an all-out war, the
likelihood of China providing strategic arms to Iran is high.</p><p>One
of the most important weapons China could provide is the HQ-9 air
defense system; comparable to the Russian S-300, it has a range of 200
kilometers and can simultaneously engage up to 12 targets\u2014including
fighter jets, cruise missiles, and short-range ballistic
missiles\u2014significantly enhancing Iran\u2019s defense against Israeli air
attacks. Its HT-233 radar can detect targets up to 300 kilometers away
and neutralize multilayered threats promptly.</p><p>Additionally,
microwave anti-quadcopter systems such as the LD-2000, designed by
China, use high-power waves to disrupt or destroy light reconnaissance
drones like Hermes 450 and Heron TP within a 5-kilometer radius. These
systems can increase the security of Iran\u2019s missile bases in mountainous
regions and curb Israeli reconnaissance and attack threats.</p><p>China
can also supply advanced electronic warfare systems such as the Type
928D. By jamming enemy radars like Israel\u2019s AN/TPY-2 and
satellite-guided precision bomb systems like JDAM, these systems can
significantly reduce the accuracy of Israeli strikes on Iranian
infrastructure, providing Iran with the necessary window for an
effective response.</p><p>Among other armaments China might supply are
advanced drones such as the CH-5 Rainbow. With a 6,500-kilometer range,
the ability to carry one ton of munitions, and 60-hour flight endurance,
these drones would be highly effective for reconnaissance and offensive
operations against sensitive targets within the occupied territories,
including airbases, energy infrastructure, and command centers. Equipped
with laser guidance and artificial intelligence systems, these drones
can execute precision strikes that saturate and overwhelm Israeli
defense systems.</p><p>The combination of these weapons with advanced
missiles and cyber operations will present the Zionist regime with a
multifaceted, attritional challenge. The HQ-9 system increases Iran\u2019s
active defense capabilities, creating space for focused counterattacks.
Anti-drone systems ensure base security, while electronic warfare
equipment disrupts enemy navigation systems, facilitating accurate
Iranian retaliatory strikes.</p><p><strong>Strait of Hormuz \u2013 a key card</strong></p><p>Alongside
all these capabilities, the Islamic Republic of Iran holds a critical
geopolitical lever: the Strait of Hormuz. This strategic waterway,
through which approximately 20 million barrels of oil\u2014about 20% of
global traded oil\u2014pass daily, represents a powerful card Iran can play.
In case of escalating tensions, it could become a significant pressure
point to shock global energy markets.</p><p>According to reports, after
the initial Israeli attacks on June 13, 2025, Iran loaded naval mines
onto its vessels in the Persian Gulf and prepared for mining the Strait
of Hormuz. Although this measure has not yet been operationalized, it
signals Tehran\u2019s determination to employ geopolitical tools in response
to potential acts of aggression in the future.</p><p>The Strait of
Hormuz, with a narrowest width of only 33 kilometers, plays a critical
role in the transportation of crude oil and liquefied natural gas from
OPEC member countries such as Iran, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, and
Iraq. Any disruption along this route\u2014such as mine-laying or seizure of
oil tankers\u2014could drive oil prices from around $74 to between $120 and
$150 per barrel, and in worst-case scenarios, even up to $400. Banks
such as JPMorgan and Citibank have warned that such a spike in oil
prices could raise global inflation rates by up to 2%, and in the United
States, inflation could surge as high as 18%.</p><p>This energy crisis
would challenge the economies of countries dependent on energy imports,
including the United States, China, India, Japan, and Europe. In Europe,
gasoline prices could rise beyond \u20ac2.5 per liter, causing major German
and Italian industries to experience blackouts and production declines.
In the U.S., increased energy and transportation costs could depress
stock markets by up to 8% and sharply boost consumer inflation.</p><p>Iran,
possessing over 5,000 naval mines\u2014especially modern magnetic and
pressure-sensitive types\u2014and with the capability to rapidly deploy them
via fast boats and Ghadir- and Fateh-class submarines, can turn the
Strait of Hormuz into a critical chokepoint for the global economy.</p><p>This
measure, combined with missile attacks on Israel\u2019s energy
infrastructure, could exert additional economic pressure on the United
States and weaken Washington\u2019s diplomatic ability to provide
unconditional support to Israel.</p><p><strong>A full bag of surprises </strong></p><p>Overall,
Iran\u2019s potential surprises in the event of a ceasefire violation are
not limited to deploying more precise and faster weapons; rather, they
reflect a comprehensive and multidimensional strategy that combines
military, intelligence, cyber, proxy, and geopolitical tools to place
unprecedented pressure on the Zionist regime and shift the regional
balance in Iran\u2019s favor.</p><p>Among other potential surprises in case
of ceasefire violation by the Zionist regime is the use of special
operations and field missions inside enemy territory. Some intelligence
sources report the readiness of the IRGC Quds Force to carry out
sabotage operations against critical Israeli facilities, including power
transmission lines, ammunition depots, and cyber infrastructure.</p><p>These
operations could coincide with missile and drone attacks to increase
pressure on the Zionist regime and cause widespread disruption in
Israel\u2019s military command and control. Especially given unconfirmed
reports of infiltration around Haifa and Tel Aviv, it is likely that in
the case of renewed war, these capabilities will be used as surprising
and unpredictable weapons.</p><p>Alongside these direct actions, Iran
could benefit from unexpected support by groups and networks in the
region that have not yet played a direct role in this war. For example,
some security analysts believe that if the Zionist regime attacks Iran
again, groups in Jordan, the occupied West Bank, or even in southern
Syria and the Sinai Desert might, spontaneously or with Iranian
intelligence backing, target Israeli logistical routes or military
bases.</p><p>This would open new heterogeneous fronts against Israel and
double the regime\u2019s need to disperse its forces. These informal
supports, together with Iran\u2019s direct and indirect capabilities, could
provide a more complete picture of a \u201cmulti-layered siege\u201d strategy
against the Zionist regime\u2014 a strategy that uses not only firepower but
also regional infiltration and mobilization.</p><p>To sum it up, if the
Zionist regime violates the ceasefire and renews attacks against Iranian
soil, it will face not only a widespread missile and drone response but
also a set of strategic surprises ranging from special operations deep
within the occupied territories to cyberattacks, utilization of space
capabilities, activation of Axis of Resistance capacities, and even
leveraging geopolitical tools such as the Strait of Hormuz.</p><p>The
combination of these elements, with potential military support from
powers like China and mobilization of hidden regional networks, could
create a complex and multidimensional equation of Iran\u2019s active
deterrence against Israeli aggression \u2014 an equation that not only
changes the regional balance of power in Tehran\u2019s favor but also sends a
clear message to all regional and extra-regional actors: Iran is not
only fully prepared to defend itself but also capable of making the cost
of any aggression unbearable for its enemies.</p><p><strong><em>Mohammad Molaei</em></strong><em> is a Tehran-based military affairs analyst.</em></p><p><strong>(The views expressed in this article are author's own and do not necessarily reflect those of Press TV)</strong></p></div></div></div>
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