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<div class="gmail-inner-article-top"><h1 class="gmail-">From the War of the Cities to True Promise 3: Iran's ballistic program and the path to networked deterrence</h1><p class="gmail-">The
Islamic Republic\u2019s long-range missile doctrine is not just a tale of
arsenal accumulation, but a four-decade transformation from survivalist
improvisation to operational supremacy in the face of western and
Israeli air dominance.</p><div class="gmail-another-name"><p><a href="https://thecradle.co/authors/abbas-al-zein" style="color:rgb(164,4,4)">Abbas Al-Zein</a></p></div><div class="gmail-another-name" style="margin-top:16px"><p><span style="color:rgb(84,88,94)">JUN 28, 2025 - </span><font size="1"><a href="https://thecradle.co/articles/from-the-war-of-the-cities-to-true-promise-3-irans-ballistic-program-and-the-path-to-networked-deterrence">https://thecradle.co/articles/from-the-war-of-the-cities-to-true-promise-3-irans-ballistic-program-and-the-path-to-networked-deterrence</a></font></p></div></div><div class="gmail-inner-article-img"><img src="https://thecradle-main.oss-eu-central-1.aliyuncs.com/public/articles/86443dcc-544e-11f0-af9f-00163e02c055.jpeg" alt="" width="467" height="221" style="margin-right: 0px;"><span>Photo Credit: The Cradle</span></div><div class="gmail-inner-article-content"><div class="gmail-row"><div class="gmail-col-md-8 gmail-col-sm-7"><div class="gmail-article-content"><span class="gmail-article-body"><p>Under
a regional sky long dominated by US and Israeli air and intelligence
superiority, Iran made a fateful decision decades ago. It would not
attempt to match its adversaries tank-for-tank or plane-for-plane, but
would instead build an asymmetric deterrent from scratch. </p><p>Rather
than chase the mirage of classical military parity, Tehran developed an
indigenous ballistic missile arsenal that is now the largest and most
formidable in West Asia. This was no short-term, tactical gambit. Iran's
missile doctrine was forged in an existential struggle, refined over
war and siege, and ultimately transformed into a cornerstone of <a href="https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20250115-irans-deterrence-doctrine-from-horizontal-resilience-to-vertical-strength/">national defense policy</a>.</p><p><strong>The War of the Cities: Birth under siege (1980\u20131988)</strong></p><p>The
first phase of Iran's missile journey began in the crucible of the
devastating Iran\u2013Iraq War, specifically during the infamous "<a href="https://www.cia.gov/readingroom/docs/DOC_0000651421.pdf">War of the Cities</a>."
As the Baathist government in Baghdad launched Soviet-supplied Scud-B
missiles deep into Iranian urban centers, it did so under the protective
umbrella of western intelligence and funding from Arab states of the
Persian Gulf. The intent was clear: to break Iranian civilian morale
through systematic terror from the sky.</p><p>Caught without a missile
deterrent of its own, besieged diplomatically, and encircled by
western-aligned forces, Iran turned to whatever resources it could
muster. It secured limited quantities of Scud-B missiles from Libya,
Syria, and North Korea. These early acquisitions, modest as they were,
formed the embryonic core of a deterrent force placed under the direct
command of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).</p><p>But these
were more than mere missiles. They were weapons of national dignity in a
war for survival for the nascent Islamic Republic. Iran's leadership
came to view missile capability not simply as a tactical asset, but as a
psychological and political necessity. </p><p>Military historian Pierre Razoux notes in <a href="https://archive.org/details/the-iran-iraq-war_202209?"><i>The Iran-Iraq War</i></a>
(2014) that it was during this phase that Iran\u2019s leadership came to the
unshakable conclusion: without a retaliatory missile force, no
psychological or strategic deterrence was possible.</p><p>The Iranian
response was neither ad hoc nor passive. Alongside importing missiles,
Iranian engineers began dismantling, studying, and maintaining the
systems. They built smuggling networks, circumvented embargoes, and
reverse-engineered technology. </p><p>North Korea emerged as a critical partner, acting as a conduit for Soviet missile know-how. A 2010 RAND Corporation <a href="https://military.ddns.net/Docs/Irans_Ballistic_missile_Capabilities_A_Net_assessment.pdf">report</a> titled <i>Iran\u2019s Ballistic Missile Capabilities: A Net Assessment</i>
noted that Iran had become capable not only of replicating but also of
redesigning and expanding missile technology independently. Between 2000
and 2010, Iran pivoted from mass production to innovation, prioritizing
accuracy, range, and operational readiness.</p><p>The foundations of
Iran's ballistic doctrine were thus laid: sovereignty through
technological independence, and defense through deterrence.</p><p><strong>From imitation to innovation (1989\u20132009)</strong></p><p>With
the Imposed War over, Iran's military establishment\u2014spearheaded by the
IRGC\u2014began restructuring its defense priorities. The goal was no longer
just to have missiles but to produce them independently and on a large
scale. </p><p>At the heart of this transformation was the late martyred Brigadier General Hassan <a href="https://www.tehrantimes.com/news/506203/IRGC-commemorates-martyrdom-anniversary-of-father-of-Iran-s">Tehrani Moghaddam</a>,
a strategic thinker and technical mastermind hailed as the \u2018father of
Iran's missile program.\u2019 He understood that deterrence was not about
launching missiles, but about mastering their lifecycle: production,
concealment, deployment, and precision.</p><p>Under his leadership, Iran
transitioned from a user to a manufacturer. The Shahab-1 and Shahab-2
were enhanced variants of the Scud-B and Scud-C. But the real
breakthrough came in 2003 with the <a href="https://missilethreat.csis.org/missile/shahab-3/">Shahab-3</a>,
boasting a range exceeding 1,300 kilometers\u2014a capability that placed US
bases in the Persian Gulf and occupied Palestine within striking
distance. The Shahab lineage would later give way to the Ghadr class,
with better range and multiple warhead capabilities.</p><p>The most significant leap, however, came with the adoption of solid-fuel propulsion. The <a href="https://missilethreat.csis.org/missile/sejjil/">Sejjil</a>
missile (2,000\u20132,500 km range), unveiled by the end of the 2000s, was
Iran's first medium-to-long-range system not reliant on Scud technology.
It signaled a new era of technological self-sufficiency and
rapid-launch capability.</p><p>During this phase, Iran undertook
sweeping strategic steps: adopting solid-fuel for easier storage and
rapid deployment, establishing underground and mobile launch facilities
to avoid detection, building decentralized manufacturing to reduce
vulnerability to strikes, and integrating missile research into academic
institutions to develop a domestic cadre of experts. </p><p>A 2010 <a href="http://military.ddns.net/Docs/Irans_Ballistic_missile_Capabilities_A_Net_assessment.pdf">report</a> by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) titled <i>Iran\u2019s Ballistic Missile Capabilities: A Net Assessment</i>
noted that by this stage, Iran had moved beyond simply replicating
foreign missile systems and had begun designing its own through local
R&D and systematic redesign, including the establishment of
underground manufacturing. From 2000 to 2010, Iran\u2019s program pivoted
decisively from quantity to quality, enhancing range, precision, and
operational readiness.</p><p>When Moghaddam was killed in a <a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/iran/8887322/Iran-missile-development-commander-killed-in-explosion.html">suspicious explosion</a>
at the "Defenders of the Sky" base in November 2011, Iran declared it a
national loss. While Israel neither confirmed nor denied
responsibility, the <i>Yediot Aharonot</i> newspaper reported that \u201csome
assessments\u201d indicated that the blast was \u201cthe result of a military
operation based on intelligence information.\u201d</p><p>Nevertheless, his
legacy endured. He had not merely built a weapons system; he had
established a sustainable missile doctrine rooted in adaptability and
local expertise. His death marked the end of one era, but it also
catalyzed the birth of Iran's next missile generation.</p><p><strong>Smart missiles and precision strikes (2010\u20132020)</strong></p><p>By
the 2010s, Iran's goal had shifted from mass deterrence to precision
deterrence. Engineers focused on guidance systems using inertial
navigation paired with domestic GPS and anti-jamming technologies. The
result was a suite of short- and medium-range guided missiles with
enhanced tactical utility.</p><p>This generation included the <a href="https://missilethreat.csis.org/missile/zolfaghar/">Zolfaghar</a>
(750 km), the highly precise and compact Fateh-313 designed for
preemptive strikes, and the Qiam\u2014Iran's first finless missile,
engineered for stealth and maneuverability. </p><p>Iran also entered the
low-altitude cruise missile domain, developing systems such as the
Soumar (with a range of over 2,000 km) and Hoveizeh (with a range of
1,350 km), both capable of evading conventional radar and penetrating
advanced air defenses.</p><p>These weapons were not theoretical. In June 2017, Iran <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2017/06/18/middleeast/iran-launches-missiles-into-syria/index.html.">launched six medium-range missiles</a> from its territory targeting ISIS command centers in Deir Ezzor, Syria\u2014its first operational cross-border use since the 1980s. </p><p>In
January 2020, in direct retaliation for the US assassination of IRGC
Quds Force General Qassem Soleimani, Iran struck the Ain al-Asad base in
Iraq with Qiam and Fateh missiles. Satellite imagery showed
sub-five-meter accuracy, hitting aircraft hangars and troop shelters.
The <i>New York Times</i><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/13/world/middleeast/Iran-missile-attack-American-base.html"> described</a> it as one of the most accurate missile strikes on a US facility in modern history.</p><p>This
decade marked Iran's shift from "deterrent" missiles to "executive"
missiles\u2014systems where political power was expressed through precision.
It was no longer about maximum range, but maximum effect. The missile
became a scalpel, not a hammer, paving the way for Iran's most advanced
deterrent doctrine yet.</p><p><strong>The rise of networked deterrence (2021\u20132023)</strong></p><p>By
the 2020s, Iranian missiles were no longer stand-alone assets. They had
become the final phase of a broader, integrated offensive system.
Missiles now worked in tandem with kamikaze drones, electronic warfare
units, cyber surveillance, and decentralized command structures. This
was networked deterrence: a synchronized, multi-domain approach designed
to penetrate and paralyze advanced air defense systems.</p><p>Under this doctrine, Iran developed new missiles tailored for layered operations. The <a href="https://thecradle.co/articles/iran-debuts-multi-warhead-kheibar-shekan-3-in-latest-strikes-on-israel">Kheibar Shekan</a> hypersonic missile (1,450 km, 500 kg warhead), most recently deployed in a multi-warhead configuration during <a href="https://thecradle.co/articles/irgc-claims-total-air-dominance-over-israel">Operation True Promise III</a> against the occupation state, exemplifies this evolution. </p><p>Other
critical systems include the Khorramshahr-4 (over 2,000 km), Raad-500
(solid-fuel, rapid launch), Zolfaghar Basir (optically guided, 1,000+
km), and Haj Qassem (1,400 km, 500 kg warhead)\u2014all integral to Iran\u2019s
expanding offensive architecture.</p><p>By 2023, Iran fielded around 30
missile systems with ranges spanning 200 to 2,500 km. These systems,
guided by jam-resistant platforms and launched from mobile or
underground sites, were designed to render preemptive strikes both
difficult and strategically ineffective.</p><img style="aspect-ratio: 1638 / 2013; margin-right: 0px;" src="https://thecradle-main.oss-eu-central-1.aliyuncs.com/public/articles_media/2db763e8-5456-11f0-ad4d-00163e02c055.jpeg" width="380" height="467"><span style="color:rgb(153,153,153)"><sub>Table of Iran's Missile Arsenal (<a href="http://fdd.org">fdd.org</a>).</sub></span><p><strong>From blueprint to battlefield: True Promise 3 (2024\u20132025)</strong></p><p>In June, Iran operationalized its <a href="https://thecradle.co/articles/perception-vs-reality-what-the-israel-iran-war-actually-reveals">full deterrent</a>
in True Promise III, a massive retaliatory strike against the
occupation state and its US backers. Triggered by Israeli aggression and
building on limited predecessors, the operation was a turning point. It
marked the battlefield culmination of four decades of Iranian missile
doctrine.</p><p>What distinguished True Promise III was not just the
firepower but the integration. Iran coordinated ballistic strikes, drone
swarms, and electronic attacks into a single operational framework. For
the first time, the world witnessed the seamless fusion of Iran's
missile and drone capabilities in a real war scenario.</p><p>The outcome upended assumptions in Washington and Tel Aviv. The missiles that <a href="https://thecradle.co/articles/high-profile-israeli-military-intelligence-sites-hit-by-iranian-missiles-report">struck deep</a>
into Israeli territory were not just instruments of reprisal. They were
shields for the program itself\u2014offensive deterrents capable of
defending Iran's retaliatory power by disabling enemy assets before they
could act. The strike was not just a response; it was a preemption of
the enemy's preemption.</p><p>None of this can be divorced from Iran's
nuclear posture. The ballistic and nuclear programs may appear distinct,
but they operate on the same doctrinal axis. The <a href="https://thecradle.co/articles/iran-vows-uninterrupted-nuclear-enrichment-after-us-israeli-war">nuclear program</a>
symbolizes sovereignty; the missile program enforces it. Together, they
dismantled the western fantasy that Israel could neutralize Iran's
deterrent capacities in a single blow. </p><p>That era is over. Iran's missile shield is no longer just a threat. It is a reality, already in motion.</p></span></div></div></div></div>
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