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<a class="gmail-domain gmail-reader-domain" href="https://electronicintifada.net/blogs/ali-abunimah/iran-won-israel-lost">electronicintifada.net</a>
<div class="gmail-domain-border"></div><h1 class="gmail-reader-title">Iran won, Israel lost</h1>
<p class="gmail-node__submitted">
<span class="gmail-field gmail-field-author"><a href="https://electronicintifada.net/people/ali-abunimah">Ali Abunimah</a></span>
<span class="gmail-field gmail-field-publication-date"><span class="gmail-date-display-single">25 June 2025</span></span> </p>
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<span><img src="https://electronicintifada.net/sites/default/files/styles/original_800w/public/2025-06/xnaphotostwo963129.jpg?itok=ZLQQbTzf&timestamp=1750858561" width="467" height="327" alt="Woman surrounded by people holds Iranian flag" title="" class="gmail-moz-reader-block-img" style="margin-right: 25px;"></span><p>People celebrate at Enghelab Square in Tehran on 24 June, after a ceasefire came into effect between Iran and Israel.</p><small>
<span>Xinhua News Agency</span></small><p>Israel
launched a war of aggression against Iran on 13 June. After more than 24
hours of ceasefire, it is clear \u2013 Iran won, Israel lost.</p>
<p>\u201cIt wasn\u2019t a decisive defeat for the [Israeli] regime, where it comes
to the edge of collapse,\u201d Mohammad Marandi of the University of Tehran <a href="https://www.youtube.com/live/BYjX0NC-EiU">told</a> the <em>Dialogue Works</em> channel on Tuesday.</p>
<p>\u201cBut it was a win for Iran.\u201d</p>
<p>Marandi\u2019s assessment is fair: Israel\u2019s war failed and left Iran
stronger. This has enormous implications for Iran, Palestine and the
world.
</p>
<h2>How do you define a winner?</h2>
<p>Carl von Clausewitz said war is politics by other means. You win if you achieve certain objectives.</p>
<p>Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu <a href="https://www.gov.il/en/pages/event-updating180525">claimed</a> the war aimed to remove \u201ctwo existential threats\u201d to Israel, \u201cthe nuclear threat and the ballistic missile threat.\u201d</p>
<p>But his actual goal, only hinted at, <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2025/06/16/middleeast/israel-operation-iran-regime-change-netanyahu-intl">was regime change</a>.</p>
<p>Following the ceasefire, Netanyahu <a href="https://www.timesofisrael.com/netanyahu-claims-historic-victory-says-we-sent-irans-nuclear-program-down-the-drain/">declared</a>
\u201ca historic victory,\u201d claiming he had eliminated the \u201cthreat of
destruction via nuclear weapons\u201d and the threat from \u201c20,000 ballistic
missiles.\u201d</p>
<p>He notably omitted regime change.</p>
<p>Tactically, Israel scored some early \u201csuccesses\u201d \u2013 murdering Iranian
commanders, scientists and their families. But when measured against
Netanyahu\u2019s own objectives, Israel failed completely.
</p>
<h2>The nuclear \u201cthreat\u201d</h2>
<p>Iran had no nuclear weapons and was not attempting to build one, according to <a href="https://www.dni.gov/index.php/newsroom/congressional-testimonies/congressional-testimonies-2025/4061-ata-hpsci-opening-statement-as-delivered">US intelligence assessments</a> and the <a href="https://x.com/amanpour/status/1935095391109922822">International Atomic Energy Agency</a>.</p>
<p>President Donald Trump nonetheless <a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2025/06/17/trump_i_dont_care_what_dni_tulsi_gabbard_says_it_was_very_close_to_a_nuclear_weapon.html">adopted</a> Netanyahu\u2019s lie that Iran was \u201cvery close,\u201d and bombed three Iranian nuclear sites.</p>
<p>But <a href="https://apnews.com/article/iran-nuclear-program-military-strikes-trump-f0fc085a2605e7da3e2f47ff9ac0e01d">US intelligence assessments</a> now say US bombing set Iran\u2019s nuclear programs back by mere months.</p>
<p>US officials <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/22/us/politics/iran-uranium-stockpile-whereabouts.html">concede</a> that they do not know where Iran\u2019s highly enriched uranium is. Iran moved it before the strikes.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://electronicintifada.net/blogs/ali-abunimah/what-comes-next-war-escalates">ineffective attack</a>, moreover, relied on US power.</p>
<p>Israel achieved nothing.</p>
<h2>Iran\u2019s ballistic missiles</h2>
<p>Netanyahu claimed Iran had 20,000 ballistic missiles.</p>
<p>His own military <a href="https://www.timesofisrael.com/the-israel-iran-war-by-the-numbers-after-12-days-of-fighting/">put the number</a> at 2,500.</p>
<p>The Israeli military claims Iran fired around 550 missiles during the war, and had between 1,000 and 1,500 left at the end.</p>
<p>Israel asserts Iran owned about 250 mobile launchers and that by the end of the war it had just 100 left.</p>
<p>Marandi estimates the number of launchers \u2013 easily replaceable trucks
\u2013 to be in thousands, a much more realistic number for a country of
Iran\u2019s size.</p>
<p>We can\u2019t verify any of this. Iran does not publish its military
secrets, and Israel is not known for telling the truth. But Iran has
spent decades building a missile program to deter the United States and
Israel. It is unlikely Israel did that much damage.</p>
<p>Even according to Israel, Iran ended the war with a significant arsenal and as far as we know Iran\u2019s <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gU96LGfErb0">underground missile cities</a> and <a href="https://www.iiss.org/online-analysis/military-balance/2021/04/iran-haji-abad-missile-base/">launch sites</a> remain untouched.</p>
<p>But the clearest evidence of Israeli failure came Tuesday morning, in the hours before the ceasefire went into effect: Iran <a href="https://www.timesofisrael.com/4-killed-in-beersheba-as-iran-fires-multiple-missile-salvos-just-before-ceasefire/">hammered</a>
Israel with repeated salvos of ballistic missiles, keeping millions of
Israelis in shelters, where they had spent much of the previous 11 days.</p>
<p>One missile struck an apartment building in Beersheba on Tuesday
morning, killing four, bringing the number of people killed in Israel
during the war to 28.</p>
<p>Israel <a href="https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/over-600-people-killed-in-israeli-attacks-in-iran-health-ministry/3611490">killed</a> more than 600 people in Iran.</p>
<p>Yet with a few hundred missiles, Iran <a href="https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/israel-is-running-low-on-defensive-interceptors-official-says-fd64163d">depleted</a> Israel\u2019s stock of interceptors in days and caused unprecedented damage, shattering Israelis\u2019 sense of safety and immunity.</p>
<p>Iran revealed <a href="https://www.tehrantimes.com/news/514629/New-type-of-Iranian-missiles-previously-undisclosed-reach-occupied">new types of missiles</a> that <a href="https://trt.global/afrika-english/article/5f959eb08485">pierced</a> multi-layered US and Israeli defense systems with apparent ease.</p>
<p>Israeli <a href="https://electronicintifada.net/blogs/ali-abunimah/israeli-media-censors-iranian-strike-cyberwarfare-base">censorship</a> hides much of the damage.</p>
<p>But what was visible showed Israel\u2019s vulnerability \u2013 even with <a href="https://defence-industry.eu/u-s-navy-deploys-five-ballistic-missile-defence-destroyers-to-mediterranean-to-protect-israel/">massive US military protection</a>.</p>
<p>Netanyahu\u2019s war exposed Israel as more vulnerable than ever.</p>
<h2>Regime change failed</h2>
<p>Though Israel never officially admitted regime change was its goal, it was clearly Netanyahu\u2019s <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2025/06/16/middleeast/israel-operation-iran-regime-change-netanyahu-intl">goal</a>.</p>
<p>Michael Oren, Israel\u2019s former ambassador in Washington, <a href="https://transcripts.cnn.com/show/cnr/date/2025-06-22/segment/08">acknowledged</a> that regime change was an \u201cimplicit goal.\u201d</p>
<p>He said Iran\u2019s collapse \u2013 even if it spread nuclear material among
competing factions in a \u201cbalkanized Iran\u201d \u2013 was preferable to its
current centralized leadership.</p>
<p>Oren\u2019s remarks to CNN on Sunday reveal Tel Aviv\u2019s real fear: It is
not a nuclear Iran, but a sovereign Iran that supports resistance. The
same fear drove US-Israeli destruction of Iraq, Libya and Syria.</p>
<p>Despite sanctions and discontent, the Islamic Republic commands domestic legitimacy, Marandi says.</p>
<p>The joint US-Israeli aggression, he argues, strengthened the Iranian
state and left Western-oriented segments of society disillusioned by
Western deceit.</p>
<p>\u201cIran\u2019s biggest achievement or gift wasn\u2019t on the battlefield but at home amongst the people, becoming as one,\u201d <a href="https://x.com/Soureh_design2/status/1937542414480343078">said</a> one Iranian.
</p>
Trump\u2019s claims about obliterating Iran\u2019s nuclear program are, as analyst Mouin Rabbani <a href="https://x.com/MouinRabbani/status/1937386900311900311">said</a>, \u201ca boast better known as proclaiming victory and going home.\u201d
<p>The US likely <a href="https://x.com/MouinRabbani/status/1937386991445832058">realized</a>
that the Israeli attack had reached its limits and that \u201cit only made
sense to continue in the context of achieving the different outcome of
regime change.\u201d</p>
<p>So Netanyahu not only failed to provoke regime change, he also failed
to draw the US into a wider war. Trump\u2019s strikes were, in the <a href="https://electronicintifada.net/blogs/ali-abunimah/what-comes-next-war-escalates">words</a> of former UN weapons inspector Scott Ritter, \u201can act of political theater.\u201d</p>
<h2>What about Gaza?</h2>
<p>Some hoped Iran would tie a ceasefire to ending the genocide in Gaza.</p>
<p>That is understandable, amid the unbearable, ongoing horror. During
the 12-day war with Iran, Israel killed almost 900 Palestinians in Gaza.</p>
<p>But this was unrealistic and would have been extremely risky.
</p>
Iran\u2019s strategy has never been to support Palestine by direct war with
Israel. Rather, it has been to support indigenous resistance groups.
That\u2019s precisely why Iran was targeted.
<p>Iran said from the start that it would punish Israel and stop
retaliating when Israel stopped attacking. Iran\u2019s goal was defensive,
not to seek escalation.</p>
<p>What might have happened if Iran had linked this war to ending the Gaza genocide?</p>
<p>It is likely the US would have launched a strategic bombing campaign
to save Israel. It would attack Iran\u2019s institutions, industry and
infrastructure with even more ferocity than Israel did.</p>
<p>Thousands would be killed, and Iranian leaders could lose internal legitimacy to continue such a fight.</p>
<p>Marandi doubts such losses would provide any strategic benefit. In
the long term, Iran\u2019s goal is to strengthen itself and the resistance in
the Global South.</p>
<p>Iran and allied resistance movements have never aimed to defeat
Israel in a single blow, but rather to wear it down. That is how
asymmetrical warfare works when you are the weaker side facing the full
might of the US-led Western empire.</p>
<p>Although Israel started it, this war advanced that aim. Israel now
appears weak, unstable, unsafe to live in and totally reliant on foreign
support in a world where it is more hated than ever after nearly two
years of its livestreamed genocide in Gaza.</p>
<p>Brain drain and capital flight will likely accelerate.</p>
<p>Had Iran gone further, it would have lost the initiative.</p>
<p>By ending the war from a position of strength \u2013 after showcasing its
missiles and surviving a war of aggression, Iran preserved its
capabilities and may now enhance them.</p>
<p>Iran signed no agreement to halt support for any resistance group. It remains independent and sovereign.</p>
<p>There is no sign that this war \u201chas altered Iran\u2019s strategic posture,\u201d <a href="https://x.com/SinaToossi/status/1937566583628661131">observes</a> Sina Toossi of the Center for International Policy.
</p>
<h2>Dangers ahead</h2>
<p>While Iran prevailed, the <a href="https://electronicintifada.net/blogs/ali-abunimah/what-comes-next-war-escalates">dangers it faces</a> cannot be overstated: Washington and Tel Aviv will intensify their efforts to subvert and weaken it.</p>
<p>Iranians know they will not be able to rest and, according to
Marandi, will work immediately to address vulnerabilities revealed by
the Israeli attack.</p>
<p>\u201cIf the ceasefire Trump just announced holds \u2013 and is paired with
serious US-Iran diplomacy \u2013 it would mark a strategic defeat for Israel
in launching this war,\u201d <a href="https://x.com/SinaToossi/status/1937292971818578038">according</a> to Toossi.</p>
<p>But the terms and purpose of any \u201cdiplomacy\u201d are key. Iran has
absolutely no reason to trust the United States or its European vassals.
\u201cNegotiation\u201d for them means demands to surrender.</p>
<p>Any negotiation must be from strength.
</p>
<h2>Global implications</h2>
<p>As a result of Israel\u2019s <a href="https://www.ohchr.org/en/press-releases/2025/06/un-experts-condemn-israeli-attack-iran-and-urge-end-hostilities">illegal aggression</a>, Iran gained international legitimacy and support.</p>
<p>It drew forceful statements of support from countries around the world, including <a href="https://www.rt.com/russia/620317-iran-attack-no-justification/">Russia</a>, <a href="https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202506/24/WS685a1235a310a04af22c81b2.html">China</a>, <a href="https://agenciabrasil.ebc.com.br/en/internacional/noticia/2025-06/brazil-condemns-israeli-and-us-attacks-nuclear-facilities-iran">Brazil</a> and <a href="https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/21-arab-muslim-nations-condemn-israeli-strikes-on-iran-urge-de-escalation/3601100">Muslim and Arab</a> nations.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.saudigazette.com.sa/article/652857/SAUDI-ARABIA/Saudi-Arabia-denounces-Israeli-attacks-on-Iran-calls-for-de-escalation">Saudi Arabia</a> and the <a href="https://www.mofa.gov.ae/en/MediaHub/News/2025/6/13/13-6-2025-UAE-iran">United Arab Emirates</a>, Israel-friendly Arab regimes that have long been hostile to Iran, joined the condemnation of Israel\u2019s aggression.
</p>
Israel\u2019s pitch to weak US-backed Arab regimes has long been that it can help them counter a supposed threat from Iran.
<p>That offer looks much less attractive now.</p>
<p>Even Iran\u2019s <a href="https://electronicintifada.net/blogs/ali-abunimah/what-comes-next-war-escalates">token strike</a>
on a US base in Qatar, pre-announced to avoid casualties, sent a clear
message: Iran is willing to fight anywhere in the region if provoked.
</p>
That should focus minds across the Gulf. Even Trump, whose perfidy and
recklessness helped set off the war, recognized the danger and rushed to
put out the flames.
<p>We must hope that this brush with even broader regional disaster and
recognition of Israel\u2019s weakness will push Washington to end the
US-Israeli genocide in Gaza.</p><p>That is more likely to happen while there remains a strong, sovereign Iran.</p></div></div></div></div></div></div>