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<h1 class="gmail-">Ceasefire 101: Israel fails at war goals,
Hezbollah succeeds</h1>
<p class="gmail-">Through its relentless military onslaught on
Lebanon, Israel failed to create a land buffer in the south
and return its northern settlers to their homes – while
Hezbollah achieved its objectives of thwarting Israel's land
invasion and retaining its military capabilities.</p>
<div class="gmail-another-name">
<p><a href="https://thecradle.co/authors/ali-rizk"
style="color:rgb(164,4,4)" moz-do-not-send="true">Ali Rizk</a></p>
</div>
<div class="gmail-another-name" style="margin-top:16px">
<p><span style="color:rgb(84,88,94)">NOV 28, 2024 - </span><font
size="1"><a
href="https://thecradle.co/articles/ceasefire-101-israel-fails-at-war-goals-hezbollah-succeeds"
moz-do-not-send="true" class="moz-txt-link-freetext">https://thecradle.co/articles/ceasefire-101-israel-fails-at-war-goals-hezbollah-succeeds</a></font></p>
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alt="" width="469" height="222" style="margin-right: 0px;"
moz-do-not-send="true"><span>Photo Credit: The Cradle</span></div>
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<div class="gmail-col-md-8 gmail-col-sm-7">
<div class="gmail-article-content"><span>
<p><span lang="EN-US" dir="ltr">Hezbollah has once again
proven to be a handful for Israel, notwithstanding
the </span><a
href="https://thecradle.co/articles/after-nasrallah-command-and-control-in-rapid-recovery"
moz-do-not-send="true"><span lang="EN-US" dir="ltr">heavy
blows</span></a><span lang="EN-US" dir="ltr"> that
were dealt to the resistance movement in the latest
round of hostilities. A </span><a
href="https://thecradle.co/articles/netanyahu-announces-lebanon-ceasefire-as-airstrikes-pummel-beirut"
moz-do-not-send="true"><span lang="EN-US" dir="ltr">ceasefire</span></a><span
lang="EN-US" dir="ltr"> deal that has come into
effect after over two months of full-scale conflict
on the Lebanese–Israeli front falls far short of
what Israel had hoped to achieve in the earlier
stages of this conflict when the momentum seemed to
be on its side. </span></p>
<p><span lang="EN-US" dir="ltr">For its part, the
Lebanese movement has managed to survive what was,
without a doubt, the heaviest and most sophisticated
onslaught ever launched in the history of warfare.</span></p>
<p><span lang="EN-US" dir="ltr">While the ceasefire deal
is composed of 13 provisions, it centers around UN
Security Council (UNSC) </span><a
href="https://news.un.org/en/story/2024/10/1155221"
moz-do-not-send="true"><span lang="EN-US" dir="ltr">Resolution</span><span
lang="EN-AU" dir="ltr"> 1701,</span></a><span
lang="EN-US" dir="ltr"> which brought an end to the
2006 Israel war on Lebanon. This, in and of itself,
points to a failure for Israel when viewed against
its list of initial demands. </span></p>
<p><span lang="EN-US" dir="ltr"><strong>Israeli demands
and UN involvement</strong></span></p>
<p><span lang="EN-US" dir="ltr">One of those early </span><a
href="https://www.lbcgroup.tv/news/news-bulletin-reports/804514/un-session-fails-to-yield-ceasefire-in-lebanon-israels-call-for-resolu/en"
moz-do-not-send="true"><span lang="EN-US" dir="ltr">demands</span></a><span
lang="EN-US" dir="ltr"> was made during a UN session
last month, when Tel Aviv called for the
implementation of UNSC Resolution 1559, which
effectively calls for the disarmament of Hezbollah
(the actual wording of the resolution calls for the
disarmament of ‘militias’ – an implicit reference to
Hezbollah). </span></p>
<p><span lang="EN-US" dir="ltr">The enforcement
mechanism of 1701 based on the new agreement,
however, appears to differ somewhat from the
language put in place 18 years ago. One of the
provisions of the new deal is the establishment of
an international committee to oversee its
enforcement and guarantee that both sides live up to
their commitments as stated in the provisions. </span></p>
<p><span lang="EN-US" dir="ltr">This effectively means
more enhanced oversight of the commitment of both
parties to 1701, given that the task of monitoring
the implementation of this resolution since 2006 had
fallen to the UN peacekeeping forces in south
Lebanon (UNIFIL) without the involvement of other
foreign parties. </span></p>
<p><span lang="EN-US" dir="ltr">In line with the recent
agreement, an international committee will be led by
the US, with France also playing a key role.
Importantly, however, its mandate does not include
actual enforcement authority – that role will remain
reserved mainly for the Lebanese army. US President
Joe Biden sought to emphasize this point in remarks
he made from the White House, in which he </span><a
href="https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx2d3gj9ewxo"
moz-do-not-send="true"><span lang="EN-US" dir="ltr">declared</span></a><span
lang="EN-US" dir="ltr"> the ceasefire deal had been
reached. </span></p>
<p><span lang="EN-US" dir="ltr">“There will be no US
combat troops in the area, but there will be
military support for the Lebanese Armed Forces, as
we've done in the past,” said Biden, adding that “in
this case, it'll be typically done with the Lebanese
army and in conjunction with the French military as
well.”</span></p>
<p><span lang="EN-US" dir="ltr">According to retired
Lebanese army general Mounir Shehadeh, the presence
of a committee led by the US will translate into
stricter enforcement measures in terms of ending any
armed presence for Hezbollah south of the Litani
River, which is one of the original provisions of
1701. As Shehadeh tells </span><i><span
lang="EN-US" dir="ltr">The Cradle</span></i><span
lang="EN-US" dir="ltr">: </span></p>
<blockquote>
<p><span lang="EN-US" dir="ltr">“I don’t think the
Lebanese army through its intelligence directorate
and based on its own intelligence will proceed out
of its own initiative to search for the possible
whereabouts of weapons caches belonging to the
resistance. But the Lebanese army and UNIFIL will
be forced by this committee led by America to
conduct searches of different locations.”</span></p>
</blockquote>
<img
src="https://thecradle-main.oss-eu-central-1.aliyuncs.com/public/articles_media/cba202ca-ada8-11ef-8416-00163e02c055.jpeg"
width="469" height="375" style="margin-right: 25px;"
moz-do-not-send="true">A map indicating where the
Israeli forces are currently deployed in south Lebanon
one day after the ceasefire took effect.
<p><span lang="EN-US" dir="ltr"><strong>Tel Aviv’s
unrealized goals </strong></span></p>
<p><span lang="EN-US" dir="ltr">This, however, remains a
far cry from Israel’s long-standing objective of
having foreign troops deployed in Lebanon with a
mandate that allows them to use force to end
Hezbollah’s armed presence in the south. </span></p>
<p><span lang="EN-US" dir="ltr">For years, Israel has
unsuccessfully </span><a
href="https://m.naharnet.com/stories/en/232122-israel-says-unifil-presence-in-lebanon-unnecessary"
moz-do-not-send="true"><span lang="EN-US" dir="ltr">sought</span></a><span
lang="EN-US" dir="ltr"> to empower UNIFIL troops
with a more robust enforcement role under Chapter 7
of the UN Charter, which would authorize them to use
force to implement Resolution 1701. Western allies
like the US have also failed to </span><a
href="https://yalibnan.com/2023/08/27/lebanon-rejects-renewal-of-unifil-mandate-under-chapter-7/"
moz-do-not-send="true"><span lang="EN-US" dir="ltr">achieve</span></a><span
lang="EN-US" dir="ltr"> this goal.</span></p>
<p><span lang="EN-US" dir="ltr">Even if the new deal
ends Hezbollah’s armed presence south of the Litani
River, this would not necessarily mean that the
balance of deterrence with Israel would be
significantly altered. As Shehadeh explains:</span></p>
<blockquote>
<p><span lang="EN-US" dir="ltr">“It is clear that in
the south of the Litani, missiles were launched
from the valleys in the Eastern, Central, and
Western strips. It will impact the resistance
operationally but not weaken it. Should the
resistance be forced to, I believe it will move
these weapons from the south to the north of the
Litani.” </span></p>
</blockquote>
<p><span lang="EN-US" dir="ltr">It is also the case that
violations from the Israeli side will now be under
closer scrutiny with the formation of the
international committee. Israel has violated this
resolution on a near-daily basis for years, mostly
through illegal overflights into Lebanese airspace. </span></p>
<p><span lang="EN-US" dir="ltr">Meanwhile, other Israeli
objectives also appear to have failed to
materialize. This includes a domestic Lebanese
uprising against Hezbollah, which Israeli Prime
Minister Benjamin Netanyahu explicitly </span><a
href="https://nypost.com/2024/10/08/world-news/netanyahu-calls-on-lebanon-to-take-back-control-from-hezbollah-free-your-country/"
moz-do-not-send="true"><span lang="EN-US" dir="ltr">called</span></a><span
lang="EN-US" dir="ltr"> for in an address to the
Lebanese people.</span></p>
<p><span lang="EN-US" dir="ltr">Tel Aviv also failed to
return by force the tens of thousands of northern
settlers who have been “displaced” by Hezbollah
rocket fire, despite having </span><a
href="https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/-israel--adds-return-of-north-settlers-to-war-objectives"
moz-do-not-send="true"><span lang="EN-US" dir="ltr">declared</span></a><span
lang="EN-US" dir="ltr"> publicly in September that
this was a new goal in its war objectives. </span></p>
<p><span lang="EN-US" dir="ltr">Perhaps most
importantly, Israel has not succeeded in severely
undermining Hezbollah’s fighting capability. Last
Sunday – just days before the ceasefire – the
Lebanese resistance </span><a
href="https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20241124-eu-urges-immediate-halt-to-israel-hezbollah-war"
moz-do-not-send="true"><span lang="EN-US" dir="ltr">launched</span></a><span
lang="EN-US" dir="ltr"> one of its heaviest, most
potent missile attacks on Israel since the outbreak
of the latest round of hostilities.</span></p>
<p><a
href="https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2024/11/israel-records-250-launches-lebanon-hezbollah-targets-tel-aviv-south"
moz-do-not-send="true"><span lang="EN-US" dir="ltr">According</span></a><span
lang="EN-US" dir="ltr"> to Hezbollah, several
military sites in Tel Aviv were targeted, in
addition to the Ashdod naval base, which lies even
further south. Video footage and data from Israelis
also showed unprecedented damage to structures and
vehicles in key northern and central cities, such as
Petah Tikva, Haifa, Nahariya, and Tel Aviv – the
state's most important industrial, commercial,
financial, and tech centers. </span></p>
<p><span lang="EN-US" dir="ltr">The Israeli military and
media </span><a
href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/11/24/hezbollah-says-it-hit-ashdod-naval-base-and-tel-aviv-three-wounded"
moz-do-not-send="true"><span lang="EN-US" dir="ltr">confirmed</span></a><span
lang="EN-US" dir="ltr"> that air sirens went off in
the suburbs of Tel Aviv and that around four million
people – almost half of Israel's total population –
were forced into shelters that day. Concurrently, in
Lebanon's south, Hezbollah soldiers were putting up
a strong fight against invading Israeli ground
forces, </span><a
href="https://thecradle.co/articles/in-the-trenches-israel-struggles-on-the-lebanese-battlefield"
moz-do-not-send="true"><span lang="EN-US" dir="ltr">preventing
them</span></a><span lang="EN-US" dir="ltr"> from
infiltrating deep into Lebanese territory or holding
any significant ground.</span></p>
<p><span lang="EN-US" dir="ltr"><strong>The resistance
lives to fight another day </strong></span></p>
<p><span lang="EN-US" dir="ltr">These realities stand
out as a significant failure on the part of Israel
and an important feat on the part of Hezbollah,
precisely because the latter had accumulated
unprecedented heavy losses: the assassination of its
former secretary-general Hassan Nasrallah and
several senior military commanders, in addition to
the </span><a
href="https://thecradle.co/articles-id/26951"
moz-do-not-send="true"><span lang="EN-US" dir="ltr">pager
detonation operation</span></a><span lang="EN-US"
dir="ltr"> which took thousands of the resistance
fighters out of combat. </span></p>
<p><span lang="EN-US" dir="ltr">But that the Lebanese
movement managed to survive a security-intelligence
war the likes of which the world had never seen
should not come as that much of a surprise, given
its sheer size. </span></p>
<p><span lang="EN-US" dir="ltr">As observers have </span><a
href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/israel/targeted-killings-wont-destroy-hezbollah"
moz-do-not-send="true"><span lang="EN-US" dir="ltr">noted</span></a><span
lang="EN-US" dir="ltr">, Hezbollah has deep
institutional and bureaucratic roots inside Lebanon
that make targeted attacks and security operations
– despite their level of sophistication
– insufficient in bringing the resistance to its
knees. As Nasrallah often repeated, and as has since
been </span><a
href="https://www.instagram.com/hespresseng/reel/DAd_8HSv3RW/"
moz-do-not-send="true"><span lang="EN-US" dir="ltr">chanted</span></a><span
lang="EN-US" dir="ltr"> in the streets of Beirut
after his martyrdom: “Never will we accept
humiliation.”</span></p>
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