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style="color:#ba2025"><span
style="font-family:lato,helvetica neue,helvetica,arial,sans-serif">How
to Do a Conjunctural
Analysis: The
Forty-Second Newsletter
(2024)</span></span></span></strong>
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alt="Helen Zughaib (Lebanon), Reading Coffee Cups, c. 2021."
srcset="https://thetricontinental.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/Helen-Zughaib-Lebanon-Reading-Coffee-Cups-2021.jpg 715w, https://thetricontinental.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/Helen-Zughaib-Lebanon-Reading-Coffee-Cups-2021-218x300.jpg 218w"
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Zughaib (Lebanon), <em>Reading
Coffee Cups</em>, c.
2021.</small></p>
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<p
style="margin: 10px 0;padding: 0;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%;color: #202020;font-family: Helvetica;font-size: 16px;line-height: 150%;text-align: left;">Dear
friends,</p>
<p
style="margin: 10px 0;padding: 0;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%;color: #202020;font-family: Helvetica;font-size: 16px;line-height: 150%;text-align: left;">Greetings
from the desk of <a
href="https://thetricontinental.us11.list-manage.com/track/click?u=6a79324d3b4acfde1e7e546c6&id=fe61e5de80&e=d206d0a40d"
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moz-do-not-send="true">Tricontinental:
Institute for Social
Research</a>.</p>
<p
style="margin: 10px 0;padding: 0;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%;color: #202020;font-family: Helvetica;font-size: 16px;line-height: 150%;text-align: left;">Reading
legacy Western media – which
<a
href="https://thetricontinental.us11.list-manage.com/track/click?u=6a79324d3b4acfde1e7e546c6&id=110f4cd22c&e=d206d0a40d"
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moz-do-not-send="true">dominates</a>
the world information order
– is painful. During the
genocidal war against
Palestinians, for instance,
these media outlets (such as
<em>CNN</em>, <em>The New
York Times</em>, <em>The
Guardian</em>, <em>Le
Monde</em>, and <em>Bild</em>)
have been unable to bring
themselves to describe the
Israeli military’s attacks
on Palestinians. At most,
and when it suits them, they
resort to passive voice
(‘Palestinians die’) or to a
dangerous form of turning
civilian areas into military
targets (‘Hezbollah village’
or ‘Hamas command and
control centre’).</p>
<p
style="margin: 10px 0;padding: 0;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%;color: #202020;font-family: Helvetica;font-size: 16px;line-height: 150%;text-align: left;">A
<a
href="https://thetricontinental.us11.list-manage.com/track/click?u=6a79324d3b4acfde1e7e546c6&id=8d91cd1e02&e=d206d0a40d"
style="mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%;color: #007C89;font-weight: normal;text-decoration: underline;"
moz-do-not-send="true">study</a>
of mainstream US print media
coverage during the first
six weeks of the genocide in
Gaza showed that ‘for every
two Palestinian deaths,
Palestinians are mentioned
once. For every Israeli
death, Israelis are
mentioned eight times’. In
other words, in mainstream
media, an Israeli who dies
will be mentioned 16 times
more than a Palestinian who
dies. This trend, which
erases and dehumanises
Palestinian casualties,
seems to have accelerated as
the number of Palestinians
killed has increased
exponentially, with an
estimated 114,000 dead.
There is no excuse for this
abysmal coverage, which
ignores the steady stream of
information provided by the
live reporting of a large
number of Palestinian
journalists and social media
users in Gaza, at great risk
to their lives, as well the
deeper context for the
US-Israeli occupation,
apartheid, and genocidal war
provided by a wide range of
analysis.</p>
<p
style="margin: 10px 0;padding: 0;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%;color: #202020;font-family: Helvetica;font-size: 16px;line-height: 150%;text-align: left;">Television
programmes are worse, with
any critic of the genocide
forced to make an admission
(‘I condemn the 7 October
attack by Hamas’ or ‘I
condemn the Russian invasion
of Ukraine’) before the
conversation can proceed,
and, since many critics do
not want to frame the
discussion around this
condemnation, the <a
href="https://thetricontinental.us11.list-manage.com/track/click?u=6a79324d3b4acfde1e7e546c6&id=de307a66e1&e=d206d0a40d"
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moz-do-not-send="true">conversation</a>
never proceeds. This ritual
act of condemnation is not
merely an entry ticket into
a conversation but an
ideological concession that
narrows the space for a
genuine debate about the
facts of when conflicts and
crises begin, how to
understand the structure of
a conflict, and how best to
ascertain the paths forward
based on this longer-term
historical and structural
assessment. This type of
discussion is called a
conjunctural analysis, which
provides political and
social movements with the
materials to intervene to
shape the future and grounds
the work of our institute.
This newsletter will
introduce you to four texts
that are based on
conjunctural analyses, but
first I want to explain what
such an analysis entails.</p>
<div
class="single-post--content--media-block single-post--content--image"
style="text-align:center; margin:3em 0;">
<div id="attachment_112533"
class="wp-caption alignnone"><img decoding="async"
aria-describedby="caption-attachment-112533"
class="size-full wp-image-112533 img-responsive mcRssImage"
src="https://thetricontinental.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/Alia-Ahmad-Saudi-Arabia-The-Field-2022.jpg"
alt="Alia-Ahmad-(Saudi-Arabia),-The-Field,-2022."
srcset="https://thetricontinental.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/Alia-Ahmad-Saudi-Arabia-The-Field-2022.jpg 1024w, https://thetricontinental.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/Alia-Ahmad-Saudi-Arabia-The-Field-2022-300x220.jpg 300w, https://thetricontinental.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/Alia-Ahmad-Saudi-Arabia-The-Field-2022-768x563.jpg 768w"
sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px"
style="max-width: 100%;width: 100%;padding-bottom: 0;display: inline;vertical-align: bottom;border: 0;height: auto;outline: none;text-decoration: none;-ms-interpolation-mode: bicubic;"
moz-do-not-send="true"
width="1024" border="0">
<p
id="caption-attachment-112533" class="wp-caption-text"
style="text-align: center;margin: 10px 0;padding: 0;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%;color: #202020;font-family: Helvetica;font-size: 16px;line-height: 150%;"><small>Alia
Ahmad (Saudi Arabia),
<em>The Field</em>,
2022.</small></p>
</div>
</div>
<p
style="margin: 10px 0;padding: 0;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%;color: #202020;font-family: Helvetica;font-size: 16px;line-height: 150%;text-align: left;">The
problem with information
these days is not only its
content, but equally its
form. The velocity of
information is striking,
making it near impossible
for a concerned person to
discern both what is
significant and what is
true. Providing an excess of
information that comes
without proper, democratic
analysis and is almost
entirely controlled by a
small oligarchy is its own
form of censorship,
exhausting the reader and
viewer into submission. What
is <em>censored</em> is not
only information itself,
although that does occur
more than we admit, but also
knowledge and wisdom. The
news remains at the level of
<em>it happened</em>,
without explaining most of
what happened at all: it
does not explain why it
happened, what caused it to
happen, or its possible
consequences. This form of
reporting lies by omission,
as events are neither static
nor singular but part of a
complex process.</p>
<p
style="margin: 10px 0;padding: 0;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%;color: #202020;font-family: Helvetica;font-size: 16px;line-height: 150%;text-align: left;">Conjunctural
analyses are an important
tool for understanding that
complexity, since they seek
to explain the dynamic
process of history at a
certain point in time. Any
given point in time is
rooted in a past and a
future: the past shapes the
present, but the present
also presages what may come
in the future depending on
how one intervenes now. That
is why conjunctural
analyses, derived from a
history of Marxist analysis
and from the work of the
political and social
movements that conduct them,
are rooted in four
principles:</p>
<ol>
<li
style="mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%;"><strong>History</strong>.
Since events do not take
place in isolation but are
part of a long-term
process, there must be a
distinction between
incidental or occasional
events and organic or
structural events.</li>
<li
style="mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%;"><strong>Totality</strong>.
Events are interconnected.
They are part of a complex
structure that encompasses
various possibilities.</li>
<li
style="mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%;"><strong>Structure</strong>.
Events take place within a
lattice that includes
economic, political,
social, and cultural
aspects and within which
people are organised into
classes and power blocs
that interact through
institutions and ideas.</li>
<li
style="mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%;"><strong>Politics</strong>.
Events must be understood
in an active way, which
means asking how a
political force will act
to shape the future,
rather than passively
watching the future
unfold. Answering this
question requires a close
analysis of the nature of
class formation, the
balance of political
forces, and cultural
traditions that could
advance a certain
political agenda.</li>
</ol>
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class="single-post--content--media-block single-post--content--image"
style="text-align:center; margin:3em 0;"><img decoding="async"
class="alignnone size-large wp-image-112558 img-responsive mcRssImage"
src="https://thetricontinental.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/Covers-Newsletter42-1024x361.jpg"
alt=""
srcset="https://thetricontinental.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/Covers-Newsletter42-1024x361.jpg 1024w, https://thetricontinental.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/Covers-Newsletter42-300x106.jpg 300w, https://thetricontinental.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/Covers-Newsletter42-768x271.jpg 768w, https://thetricontinental.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/Covers-Newsletter42-1536x542.jpg 1536w, https://thetricontinental.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/Covers-Newsletter42-2048x723.jpg 2048w"
sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px"
style="max-width: 100%;width: 100%;padding-bottom: 0;display: inline;vertical-align: bottom;border: 0;height: auto;outline: none;text-decoration: none;-ms-interpolation-mode: bicubic;"
moz-do-not-send="true"
width="1024" border="0"></div>
<p
style="margin: 10px 0;padding: 0;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%;color: #202020;font-family: Helvetica;font-size: 16px;line-height: 150%;text-align: left;">Our
Asia, Africa, and Latin
America offices recently
published four texts based
on conjunctural analyses:</p>
<ol>
<li
style="mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%;"><a
href="https://thetricontinental.us11.list-manage.com/track/click?u=6a79324d3b4acfde1e7e546c6&id=17b1beb6c3&e=d206d0a40d"
style="mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%;color: #007C89;font-weight: normal;text-decoration: underline;"
moz-do-not-send="true"><em>Nepal’s
Fight for Sovereignty,
the Millennium
Challenge Corporation,
and the US’s New Cold
War against China</em></a>,
jointly produced with <a
href="https://thetricontinental.us11.list-manage.com/track/click?u=6a79324d3b4acfde1e7e546c6&id=2ad7e237d9&e=d206d0a40d"
style="mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%;color: #007C89;font-weight: normal;text-decoration: underline;"
moz-do-not-send="true"><em>Bampanth</em></a>
magazine and written by
its chief editor Dr Mahesh
Maskey, who was also
Nepal’s ambassador to
China. This text is only
in English.</li>
<li
style="mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%;"><a
href="https://thetricontinental.us11.list-manage.com/track/click?u=6a79324d3b4acfde1e7e546c6&id=b48cddff84&e=d206d0a40d"
style="mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%;color: #007C89;font-weight: normal;text-decoration: underline;"
moz-do-not-send="true"><em>A
New World Born from
the Ashes of the Old</em></a>,
written by Hanna Eid and
produced with input from
the West African People’s
Organisation. This text is
only in English.</li>
<li
style="mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%;"><a
href="https://thetricontinental.us11.list-manage.com/track/click?u=6a79324d3b4acfde1e7e546c6&id=37fe7fd0f5&e=d206d0a40d"
style="mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%;color: #007C89;font-weight: normal;text-decoration: underline;"
moz-do-not-send="true"><em>La
criminalización de los
cultivadores como
coartada imperialista:
economía política de
las drogas en Colombia</em></a>
(The Criminalisation of
Farmers as an Imperialist
Alibi: The Political
Economy of Drugs in
Colombia), jointly
researched and produced
with Centro de Pensamiento
y Diálogo Político and
Coordinadora Nacional de
Cultivadores de Coca,
Amapola y Marihuana in
Colombia and written by
Karen Jessenia Gutiérrez
Alfonso. This text is only
in Spanish.</li>
<li
style="mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%;"><a
href="https://thetricontinental.us11.list-manage.com/track/click?u=6a79324d3b4acfde1e7e546c6&id=3092c93771&e=d206d0a40d"
style="mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%;color: #007C89;font-weight: normal;text-decoration: underline;"
moz-do-not-send="true"><em>A
Revista Estudos do Sul Global</em></a> (Journal of Global South
Studies), which contains
articles on themes such as
imperialism, the character
of finance in our times,
and the tempo of the class
struggle. This text is
only in Portuguese.</li>
</ol>
<p
style="margin: 10px 0;padding: 0;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%;color: #202020;font-family: Helvetica;font-size: 16px;line-height: 150%;text-align: left;">I
will write about each of
these texts at greater
length in the coming months,
as their depth and quality
help us navigate beneath the
superficiality and
sensationalism that
typically define analyses of
the present. For instance,
Maskey’s intervention about
the Nepali government’s
acceptance of a US
government grant elucidates
the dynamic structure of the
US-imposed New Cold War on
Asia, while Hanna Eid’s
assessment of the Alliance
of Sahel States (Burkina
Faso, Mali, and Niger)
enables us to understand the
fight for sovereignty across
West Africa as a whole. The
report on the war on drugs
provides a window into the <a
href="https://thetricontinental.us11.list-manage.com/track/click?u=6a79324d3b4acfde1e7e546c6&id=6c6b94296d&e=d206d0a40d"
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moz-do-not-send="true">pressures</a>
upon the government of
President Gustavo Petro in
Colombia, which requires an
acknowledgment of the role
of the lucrative
international drug mafia in
the country’s political
establishment.</p>
<div
class="single-post--content--media-block single-post--content--image"
style="text-align:center; margin:3em 0;"><img loading="lazy"
decoding="async"
class="alignnone wp-image-112592 size-full img-responsive mcRssImage"
src="https://thetricontinental.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/20241016_Otto-y-Nora_IG-2.jpg"
alt=""
srcset="https://thetricontinental.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/20241016_Otto-y-Nora_IG-2.jpg 1024w, https://thetricontinental.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/20241016_Otto-y-Nora_IG-2-300x300.jpg 300w, https://thetricontinental.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/20241016_Otto-y-Nora_IG-2-150x150.jpg 150w, https://thetricontinental.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/20241016_Otto-y-Nora_IG-2-768x768.jpg 768w"
sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px"
style="max-width: 100%;width: 100%;padding-bottom: 0;display: inline;vertical-align: bottom;border: 0;height: auto;outline: none;text-decoration: none;-ms-interpolation-mode: bicubic;"
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<p
style="margin: 10px 0;padding: 0;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%;color: #202020;font-family: Helvetica;font-size: 16px;line-height: 150%;text-align: left;">Years
ago, I visited the Zacapa
barracks, about two hours
east of Guatemala City. The
scene at the barracks was
near-idyllic, its stone
walls surrounded by green
pastures, yet the sinister
watch towers hinted of the
bloodshed that took place
here: this is where Nora
Paiz Cárcamo (1944–1967),
Otto René Castillo
(1934–1967), other members
of the Rebel Armed
Forces (FAR), and about a
dozen peasants were brutally
tortured and burned alive.
Both Nora and Otto were
members of the communist
movement that fought against
the Guatemalan dictatorship;
trained in the German
Democratic Republic and
Soviet Union, respectively;
and joined the armed
struggle in the Sierra de
las Minas (named for the
mines of jade, marble, and
asbestos), where they were
killed in March 1967. Later,
Nora’s mother, Clemencia
Cárcamo Sandoval, told the
truth commission that her
daughter’s bloody, fractured
corpse was found with clubs
fused into it, a sign of how
brutally she had been
beaten. Two years before he
was murdered alongside his
comrades, Otto, whose
beautiful poems were
inspired by the El
Salvadoran guerrilla poet
Roque Dalton (1935–1975),
wrote an elegy to
‘apolitical intellectuals’:</p>
<blockquote
style="mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%;">
<p
style="margin: 10px 0;padding: 0;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%;color: #202020;font-family: Helvetica;font-size: 16px;line-height: 150%;text-align: left;">I</p>
<p
style="padding-left: 40px;margin: 10px 0;padding: 0;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%;color: #202020;font-family: Helvetica;font-size: 16px;line-height: 150%;text-align: left;">One
day,<br>
the apolitical<br>
intellectuals<br>
of my country<br>
will be interrogated<br>
by the humblest<br>
of our people.</p>
<p
style="padding-left: 40px;margin: 10px 0;padding: 0;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%;color: #202020;font-family: Helvetica;font-size: 16px;line-height: 150%;text-align: left;">They
will be asked<br>
what they did<br>
when<br>
their homeland was slowly<br>
extinguished,<br>
like a sweet fire,<br>
small and alone.</p>
<p
style="padding-left: 40px;margin: 10px 0;padding: 0;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%;color: #202020;font-family: Helvetica;font-size: 16px;line-height: 150%;text-align: left;">No
one will ask them<br>
about their suits,<br>
or about their long<br>
siestas<br>
after lunch,<br>
or about their sterile<br>
battles with nothingness,<br>
nor about<br>
their ontological<br>
way<br>
of making money.<br>
They won’t be questioned<br>
about Greek mythology,<br>
or about the self-disgust
they felt<br>
when someone, deep down,<br>
accepted the fate of dying
a coward’s death.<br>
They’ll be asked nothing<br>
about their absurd<br>
justifications,<br>
born in the shadow<br>
of a total lie.</p>
<p
style="margin: 10px 0;padding: 0;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%;color: #202020;font-family: Helvetica;font-size: 16px;line-height: 150%;text-align: left;">II</p>
<p
style="padding-left: 40px;margin: 10px 0;padding: 0;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%;color: #202020;font-family: Helvetica;font-size: 16px;line-height: 150%;text-align: left;">On
that day<br>
the humble people will
come.<br>
Those who had no place<br>
in the books and poems<br>
of the apolitical
intellectuals,<br>
yet, every day, brought
them<br>
their bread and milk,<br>
their eggs and tortillas,<br>
those who mended their
clothes,<br>
who drove their cars,<br>
who cared for their dogs
and tended their gardens,<br>
who worked for them,<br>
and they’ll ask:<br>
‘What did you do when the
poor<br>
suffered, when the
tenderness and life<br>
was snuffed out of them?’.</p>
<p
style="margin: 10px 0;padding: 0;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%;color: #202020;font-family: Helvetica;font-size: 16px;line-height: 150%;text-align: left;">III</p>
<p
style="padding-left: 40px;margin: 10px 0;padding: 0;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%;color: #202020;font-family: Helvetica;font-size: 16px;line-height: 150%;text-align: left;">Apolitical
intellectuals<br>
of my sweet country,<br>
you will have nothing to
say.</p>
<p
style="padding-left: 40px;margin: 10px 0;padding: 0;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%;color: #202020;font-family: Helvetica;font-size: 16px;line-height: 150%;text-align: left;">A
vulture of silence<br>
will devour your insides.<br>
Your own misery<br>
will gnaw at your soul.<br>
And you will be silent,<br>
ashamed of yourselves.</p>
</blockquote>
<p
style="margin: 10px 0;padding: 0;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%;color: #202020;font-family: Helvetica;font-size: 16px;line-height: 150%;text-align: left;">Warmly,</p>
<p
style="margin: 10px 0;padding: 0;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%;color: #202020;font-family: Helvetica;font-size: 16px;line-height: 150%;text-align: left;">Vijay</p>
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Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research ·
Shadipur · New Delhi, NCT 110008 · India <br>
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