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valign="top"> <strong><span
style="font-size:20px"><span
style="color:#ba2025"><span
style="font-family:lato,helvetica neue,helvetica,arial,sans-serif">Is
the Reign of the Dollar
Coming to an End?: The
Twenty-Fifth Newsletter
(2024)</span></span></span></strong>
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<span
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<div
class="single-post--content--media-block single-post--content--image"
style="text-align:center; margin:3em 0;">
<div id="attachment_105827"
class="wp-caption aligncenter"><img
aria-describedby="caption-attachment-105827" decoding="async"
fetchpriority="high"
class="wp-image-105827 size-full img-responsive mcRssImage"
src="https://thetricontinental.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Jiang-Tiefeng-China-Stone-Forest-1979.jpg"
alt=""
srcset="https://thetricontinental.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Jiang-Tiefeng-China-Stone-Forest-1979.jpg 950w, https://thetricontinental.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Jiang-Tiefeng-China-Stone-Forest-1979-300x123.jpg 300w, https://thetricontinental.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Jiang-Tiefeng-China-Stone-Forest-1979-768x315.jpg 768w"
sizes="(max-width: 950px) 100vw, 950px"
style="max-width: 100%;width: 100%;padding-bottom: 0;display: inline;vertical-align: bottom;border: 0;height: auto;outline: none;text-decoration: none;-ms-interpolation-mode: bicubic;"
moz-do-not-send="true"
width="950" border="0">
<p
id="caption-attachment-105827" class="wp-caption-text"
style="text-align: center;margin: 10px 0;padding: 0;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%;color: #202020;font-family: Helvetica;font-size: 16px;line-height: 150%;"><small>Jiang
Tiefeng (China), <i>Stone
Forest</i>, 1979.</small></p>
</div>
</div>
<p
style="margin: 10px 0;padding: 0;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%;color: #202020;font-family: Helvetica;font-size: 16px;line-height: 150%;text-align: left;">Dear
friends,</p>
<p
style="margin: 10px 0;padding: 0;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%;color: #202020;font-family: Helvetica;font-size: 16px;line-height: 150%;text-align: left;">Greetings
from the desk of <a
href="https://thetricontinental.us11.list-manage.com/track/click?u=6a79324d3b4acfde1e7e546c6&id=3e3045c407&e=d206d0a40d"
style="mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%;color: #007C89;font-weight: normal;text-decoration: underline;"
moz-do-not-send="true">Tricontinental:
Institute for Social
Research</a>.</p>
<p
style="margin: 10px 0;padding: 0;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%;color: #202020;font-family: Helvetica;font-size: 16px;line-height: 150%;text-align: left;">In
early June, a <a
href="https://thetricontinental.us11.list-manage.com/track/click?u=6a79324d3b4acfde1e7e546c6&id=d0b55091ea&e=d206d0a40d"
style="mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%;color: #007C89;font-weight: normal;text-decoration: underline;"
moz-do-not-send="true">rumour</a>
began to circulate – which
was widely <a
href="https://thetricontinental.us11.list-manage.com/track/click?u=6a79324d3b4acfde1e7e546c6&id=c405f23360&e=d206d0a40d"
style="mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%;color: #007C89;font-weight: normal;text-decoration: underline;"
moz-do-not-send="true">reported</a>
in the Indian press as true
– that the government of
Saudi Arabia had allowed its
petrodollar agreement with
the United States to lapse.
This <a
href="https://thetricontinental.us11.list-manage.com/track/click?u=6a79324d3b4acfde1e7e546c6&id=4ee27ef8e1&e=d206d0a40d"
style="mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%;color: #007C89;font-weight: normal;text-decoration: underline;"
moz-do-not-send="true">agreement</a>,
made in 1974, is quite
straight-forward and fulfils
various <a
href="https://thetricontinental.us11.list-manage.com/track/click?u=6a79324d3b4acfde1e7e546c6&id=440e048f3c&e=d206d0a40d"
style="mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%;color: #007C89;font-weight: normal;text-decoration: underline;"
moz-do-not-send="true">needs</a>
of the US government: the US
purchases oil from Saudi
Arabia, and Saudi Arabia
uses that money to buy
military equipment from US
arms manufacturers while
holding the income from the
oil sales in US Treasury
Bills and in the Western
financial system. This
arrangement to recycle oil
profits into the US economy
and the Western banking
world is known as the
petrodollar system.</p>
<p
style="margin: 10px 0;padding: 0;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%;color: #202020;font-family: Helvetica;font-size: 16px;line-height: 150%;text-align: left;">This
non-exclusive arrangement
between the two countries
never required the Saudis to
limit their oil sales to
dollars or to recycle their
oil profits exclusively in
US Treasury Bills (of which
it <a
href="https://thetricontinental.us11.list-manage.com/track/click?u=6a79324d3b4acfde1e7e546c6&id=0279e1928c&e=d206d0a40d"
style="mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%;color: #007C89;font-weight: normal;text-decoration: underline;"
moz-do-not-send="true">holds</a>
a considerable $135.9
billion) and Western banks.
Indeed, the Saudis are free
to sell oil in multiple
currencies, such as the
Euro, and participate in
digital currency platforms
such as <a
href="https://thetricontinental.us11.list-manage.com/track/click?u=6a79324d3b4acfde1e7e546c6&id=17cef7437a&e=d206d0a40d"
style="mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%;color: #007C89;font-weight: normal;text-decoration: underline;"
moz-do-not-send="true">mBridge</a>,
a trial initiative of the
Bank of International
Settlements and the central
banks of China, Thailand,
and the United Arab Emirates
(UAE).</p>
<p
style="margin: 10px 0;padding: 0;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%;color: #202020;font-family: Helvetica;font-size: 16px;line-height: 150%;text-align: left;">Nonetheless,
the rumour that this
decades-long petrodollar
agreement had come to an end
reflects the widespread
expectation that a seismic
shift in the financial
system will overturn the
rule of the Dollar-Wall
Street regime. It was a
false rumour, but it carried
within it a truth about the
possibilities of a
post-dollar or de-dollarised
world.</p>
<div
class="single-post--content--media-block single-post--content--image"
style="text-align:center; margin:3em 0;">
<div id="attachment_105847"
class="wp-caption aligncenter"><img
aria-describedby="caption-attachment-105847" decoding="async"
class="size-full wp-image-105847 img-responsive mcRssImage"
src="https://thetricontinental.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Xu-Lei-China-Map-of-the-Mountains-and-Seas-2003.jpg"
alt=""
srcset="https://thetricontinental.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Xu-Lei-China-Map-of-the-Mountains-and-Seas-2003.jpg 950w, https://thetricontinental.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Xu-Lei-China-Map-of-the-Mountains-and-Seas-2003-300x234.jpg 300w, https://thetricontinental.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Xu-Lei-China-Map-of-the-Mountains-and-Seas-2003-768x600.jpg 768w"
sizes="(max-width: 950px) 100vw, 950px"
style="max-width: 100%;width: 100%;padding-bottom: 0;display: inline;vertical-align: bottom;border: 0;height: auto;outline: none;text-decoration: none;-ms-interpolation-mode: bicubic;"
moz-do-not-send="true"
width="950" border="0">
<p
id="caption-attachment-105847" class="wp-caption-text"
style="text-align: center;margin: 10px 0;padding: 0;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%;color: #202020;font-family: Helvetica;font-size: 16px;line-height: 150%;"><small>Xu
Lei (China), <i>Map
of the Mountains and
Seas</i>, 2003.</small></p>
</div>
</div>
<p
style="margin: 10px 0;padding: 0;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%;color: #202020;font-family: Helvetica;font-size: 16px;line-height: 150%;text-align: left;">The
invitation extended to six
countries to join the BRICS
bloc last August was a
further indication that such
a <a
href="https://thetricontinental.us11.list-manage.com/track/click?u=6a79324d3b4acfde1e7e546c6&id=cc57e898b5&e=d206d0a40d"
style="mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%;color: #007C89;font-weight: normal;text-decoration: underline;"
moz-do-not-send="true">shift</a>
is underway. Among these
countries are Iran, Saudi
Arabia, and the UAE,
although Saudi Arabia has
yet to finalise its
membership. With its
expanded membership, BRICS
would include the two
countries with the largest
and second largest gas
reserves in the world
(Russia and Iran,
respectively) and the two
countries that accounted for
nearly a quarter of global
oil production (Russia and
Saudi Arabia, all figures as
of 2022). The political
opening between Iran and
Saudi Arabia, brokered by
Beijing in March 2023, as
well as the signs that the
US allies UAE and Saudi
Arabia seek to diversify
their political linkages, <a
href="https://thetricontinental.us11.list-manage.com/track/click?u=6a79324d3b4acfde1e7e546c6&id=59ebc8b5ce&e=d206d0a40d"
style="mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%;color: #007C89;font-weight: normal;text-decoration: underline;"
moz-do-not-send="true">demonstrate</a>
the possible end of the
petrodollar system. That was
at the heart of the rumour
in early June.</p>
<p
style="margin: 10px 0;padding: 0;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%;color: #202020;font-family: Helvetica;font-size: 16px;line-height: 150%;text-align: left;">However,
this possibility should not
be exaggerated, as the
Dollar-Wall Street regime
remains intact and
significantly powerful. Data
from the International
Monetary Fund <a
href="https://thetricontinental.us11.list-manage.com/track/click?u=6a79324d3b4acfde1e7e546c6&id=af6da285d6&e=d206d0a40d"
style="mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%;color: #007C89;font-weight: normal;text-decoration: underline;"
moz-do-not-send="true">shows</a>
that, as of the last quarter
of 2023, the US dollar
accounted for 58.41% of
allocated currency reserves,
which is far more than the
reserves held in euros
(19.98%), Japanese yen
(5.7%), British pound
sterling (4.8%), and Chinese
renminbi (short of 3%).
Meanwhile, the US dollar <a
href="https://thetricontinental.us11.list-manage.com/track/click?u=6a79324d3b4acfde1e7e546c6&id=1237cff325&e=d206d0a40d"
style="mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%;color: #007C89;font-weight: normal;text-decoration: underline;"
moz-do-not-send="true">remains</a>
the main invoicing currency
in global trade, with 40% of
international trade
transactions in goods
invoiced in dollars despite
the fact that the US share
of global trade is just 10%.
While the dollar remains the
key currency, it nonetheless
faces challenges around the
world, with the share of the
US dollar in allocated
currency reserves <a
href="https://thetricontinental.us11.list-manage.com/track/click?u=6a79324d3b4acfde1e7e546c6&id=aa0c1a95d7&e=d206d0a40d"
style="mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%;color: #007C89;font-weight: normal;text-decoration: underline;"
moz-do-not-send="true">declining</a>
gradually but steadily over
the last twenty years.</p>
<div
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style="text-align:center; margin:3em 0;"><img decoding="async"
class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-105857 img-responsive mcRssImage"
src="https://thetricontinental.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/EN-Cover.jpg"
alt=""
srcset="https://thetricontinental.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/EN-Cover.jpg 595w, https://thetricontinental.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/EN-Cover-213x300.jpg 213w"
sizes="(max-width: 595px) 100vw, 595px"
style="max-width: 100%;width: 100%;padding-bottom: 0;display: inline;vertical-align: bottom;border: 0;height: auto;outline: none;text-decoration: none;-ms-interpolation-mode: bicubic;"
moz-do-not-send="true"
width="595" border="0"></div>
<p
style="margin: 10px 0;padding: 0;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%;color: #202020;font-family: Helvetica;font-size: 16px;line-height: 150%;text-align: left;">Three
factors are driving
de-dollarisation: the US
economy’s lack of strength
and potential that began
with the <a
href="https://thetricontinental.us11.list-manage.com/track/click?u=6a79324d3b4acfde1e7e546c6&id=c279a3b1f6&e=d206d0a40d"
style="mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%;color: #007C89;font-weight: normal;text-decoration: underline;"
moz-do-not-send="true">Third
Great Depression</a> in
2008; the aggressive use of
<a
href="https://thetricontinental.us11.list-manage.com/track/click?u=6a79324d3b4acfde1e7e546c6&id=517bea245e&e=d206d0a40d"
style="mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%;color: #007C89;font-weight: normal;text-decoration: underline;"
moz-do-not-send="true">illegal
sanctions</a> – especially
financial sanctions – by the
United States and its Global
North allies against one
quarter of the countries in
the world; and the
development and
strengthening of relations
between countries of the
Global South, especially
through platforms such as
BRICS. In 2015, BRICS
created the New Development
Bank (NDB), also known as
the BRICS Bank, to navigate
a post-Dollar-Wall Street
regime and to produce
facilities to further
development rather than
austerity. The creation of
these BRICS institutions and
the increased use of local
currencies to pay for
cross-border trade created
an expectation of hastened
de-dollarisation. At the <a
href="https://thetricontinental.us11.list-manage.com/track/click?u=6a79324d3b4acfde1e7e546c6&id=b98cc597fc&e=d206d0a40d"
style="mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%;color: #007C89;font-weight: normal;text-decoration: underline;"
moz-do-not-send="true">2023
BRICS summit</a> in
Johannesburg, Brazil’s
President Luiz Inácio Lula
da Silva <a
href="https://thetricontinental.us11.list-manage.com/track/click?u=6a79324d3b4acfde1e7e546c6&id=f16aaa5d43&e=d206d0a40d"
style="mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%;color: #007C89;font-weight: normal;text-decoration: underline;"
moz-do-not-send="true">repeated</a>
the call to increase the use
of local currencies and
perhaps create a
BRICS-denominated currency
system.</p>
<p
style="margin: 10px 0;padding: 0;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%;color: #202020;font-family: Helvetica;font-size: 16px;line-height: 150%;text-align: left;">There
has been a vibrant debate
about de-dollarisation
amongst those who have
worked in the BRICS
institutions and in the
large countries that are
interested in
de-dollarisation, such as
China, about its necessity,
prospects, and the
difficulties of finding new
ways to hold currency
reserves and invoice global
trade. The most recent <a
href="https://thetricontinental.us11.list-manage.com/track/click?u=6a79324d3b4acfde1e7e546c6&id=bc7e31d85d&e=d206d0a40d"
style="mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%;color: #007C89;font-weight: normal;text-decoration: underline;"
moz-do-not-send="true">issue</a>
of the international journal
<i>Wenhua Zongheng </i>(文化纵横),
a collaboration between
Tricontinental: Institute
for Social Research and
Dongsheng, is dedicated to
this topic. In the <a
href="https://thetricontinental.us11.list-manage.com/track/click?u=6a79324d3b4acfde1e7e546c6&id=702a0dbfd0&e=d206d0a40d"
style="mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%;color: #007C89;font-weight: normal;text-decoration: underline;"
moz-do-not-send="true">introduction</a>
to ‘The BRICS and
De-Dollarisation:
Opportunities and
Challenges’ (volume 2, issue
no. 1, May 2024), Paulo
Nogueira Batista Jr., the
first vice president of the
NDB (2015–2017), summarises
his considerable <a
href="https://thetricontinental.us11.list-manage.com/track/click?u=6a79324d3b4acfde1e7e546c6&id=02924578e6&e=d206d0a40d"
style="mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%;color: #007C89;font-weight: normal;text-decoration: underline;"
moz-do-not-send="true">reflections</a>
on the importance of moving
away from the Dollar-Wall
Street regime and on the
political and technical
difficulties of such a
transition. BRICS, he
correctly asserts, is a
diverse group of countries
with very different
political forces in charge
of the different states. The
political agendas of its
members – even with the <a
href="https://thetricontinental.us11.list-manage.com/track/click?u=6a79324d3b4acfde1e7e546c6&id=b92bb10a65&e=d206d0a40d"
style="mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%;color: #007C89;font-weight: normal;text-decoration: underline;"
moz-do-not-send="true">new
mood</a> in the Global
South – are particularly
diverse when it comes to
economic theory, with many
of the BRICS states
remaining committed to
neoliberal formulas while
others seek <a
href="https://thetricontinental.us11.list-manage.com/track/click?u=6a79324d3b4acfde1e7e546c6&id=74d411d402&e=d206d0a40d"
style="mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%;color: #007C89;font-weight: normal;text-decoration: underline;"
moz-do-not-send="true">new
development models</a>.
One of the most important
points raised by Nogueira is
that the United States ‘will
in all likelihood use all
the many instruments at its
disposal to struggle against
any attempt to dethrone the
dollar from its status as
linchpin of the
international monetary
system’. These instruments
would include sanctions and
diplomatic threats, all of
which would dampen the
confidence of governments
that have weaker political
commitments and are not
backed by popular movements
committed to a new world
order.</p>
<div
class="single-post--content--media-block single-post--content--image"
style="text-align:center; margin:3em 0;">
<div id="attachment_105867"
class="wp-caption aligncenter"><img
aria-describedby="caption-attachment-105867" decoding="async"
loading="lazy"
class="size-full wp-image-105867 img-responsive mcRssImage"
src="https://thetricontinental.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Hung-Liu-China-Sisters-2000.jpg"
alt=""
srcset="https://thetricontinental.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Hung-Liu-China-Sisters-2000.jpg 950w, https://thetricontinental.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Hung-Liu-China-Sisters-2000-300x221.jpg 300w, https://thetricontinental.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Hung-Liu-China-Sisters-2000-768x565.jpg 768w"
sizes="(max-width: 950px) 100vw, 950px"
style="max-width: 100%;width: 100%;padding-bottom: 0;display: inline;vertical-align: bottom;border: 0;height: auto;outline: none;text-decoration: none;-ms-interpolation-mode: bicubic;"
moz-do-not-send="true"
width="950" border="0">
<p
id="caption-attachment-105867" class="wp-caption-text"
style="text-align: center;margin: 10px 0;padding: 0;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%;color: #202020;font-family: Helvetica;font-size: 16px;line-height: 150%;"><small>Hung
Liu (China), <i>Sisters</i>,
2000.</small></p>
</div>
</div>
<p
style="margin: 10px 0;padding: 0;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%;color: #202020;font-family: Helvetica;font-size: 16px;line-height: 150%;text-align: left;">De-dollarisation
was moving at a very slow
pace until 2022, when the
Global North countries began
to confiscate Russian assets
held in the Dollar-Wall
Street financial system and
anxiety spread across many
countries about the safety
of their assets in the North
American and European banks.
Though this confiscation was
not new (the United States
has done this before to Cuba
and Afghanistan, for
instance), the scale and
severity of these
confiscations operated as a
‘confidence-destroying’
measure, as Nogueira puts
it.</p>
<p
style="margin: 10px 0;padding: 0;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%;color: #202020;font-family: Helvetica;font-size: 16px;line-height: 150%;text-align: left;">Nogueira’s
introduction is followed by
three essays by leading
Chinese analysts of the
current shifts in the world
order. In ‘What Is Driving
the BRICS’ Debate on
De-Dollarisation?’,
Professor Ding Yifan (senior
fellow at Beijing’s <a
href="https://thetricontinental.us11.list-manage.com/track/click?u=6a79324d3b4acfde1e7e546c6&id=1b6b36c6f1&e=d206d0a40d"
style="mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%;color: #007C89;font-weight: normal;text-decoration: underline;"
moz-do-not-send="true">Taihe
Institute</a>) <a
href="https://thetricontinental.us11.list-manage.com/track/click?u=6a79324d3b4acfde1e7e546c6&id=34ef7c4c41&e=d206d0a40d"
style="mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%;color: #007C89;font-weight: normal;text-decoration: underline;"
moz-do-not-send="true">charts</a>
the reasons why many Global
South countries now seek to
trade in local currencies
and to offload their
reliance upon the
Dollar-Wall Street regime.
He emphasises two factors
that put into question
whether or not the dollar
will be able to continue to
serve as an anchor currency:
first, the weakness of the
US economy due to its
reliance upon military
spending over productive
investment (the former of
which accounts for <a
href="https://thetricontinental.us11.list-manage.com/track/click?u=6a79324d3b4acfde1e7e546c6&id=1e915b53d1&e=d206d0a40d"
style="mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%;color: #007C89;font-weight: normal;text-decoration: underline;"
moz-do-not-send="true">53.6%</a>
of total world military
spending) and, second, the
US’s history of breach of
contract. At the close of
his article, Ding reflects
on the possibility of the
Global South countries
accepting the Chinese
renminbi (RMB) as their
reference currency, since
China’s manufacturing
capabilities make the RMB
valuable as a way to buy
Chinese goods.</p>
<p
style="margin: 10px 0;padding: 0;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%;color: #202020;font-family: Helvetica;font-size: 16px;line-height: 150%;text-align: left;">Yet,
in his <a
href="https://thetricontinental.us11.list-manage.com/track/click?u=6a79324d3b4acfde1e7e546c6&id=ece5439c13&e=d206d0a40d"
style="mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%;color: #007C89;font-weight: normal;text-decoration: underline;"
moz-do-not-send="true">essay</a>
‘China’s Foreign Exchange
Reserves: Past and Present
Security Challenges’,
Professor Yu Yongding
(member of the <a
href="https://thetricontinental.us11.list-manage.com/track/click?u=6a79324d3b4acfde1e7e546c6&id=a51b80af8e&e=d206d0a40d"
style="mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%;color: #007C89;font-weight: normal;text-decoration: underline;"
moz-do-not-send="true">Chinese
Academy of Social Sciences</a>)
is cautious about the
possibility of the RMB
supplanting the dollar. For
the RMB to become an
international reserve
currency, Yu argues, ‘China
must fulfil a series of
preconditions, including
establishing a sound capital
market (especially a deep
and highly liquid treasury
bond market), a flexible
exchange rate regime, free
cross-border capital flows,
and long-term credit in the
market’. This would mean
that China would have to
eschew its capital controls
and begin to offer RMB
treasury bonds for
international buyers. RMB
internationalisation, Yu
argues, ‘is a goal worth
pursuing’, but it is not
something that can take
place in the short run.
‘Distant water’, he writes
poetically, ‘will not quench
immediate thirst’.</p>
<div
class="single-post--content--media-block single-post--content--image"
style="text-align:center; margin:3em 0;">
<div id="attachment_105877"
class="wp-caption aligncenter"><img
aria-describedby="caption-attachment-105877" decoding="async"
loading="lazy"
class="size-full wp-image-105877 img-responsive mcRssImage"
src="https://thetricontinental.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Xu-Deqi-China-China-Flower-2007.jpg"
alt=""
srcset="https://thetricontinental.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Xu-Deqi-China-China-Flower-2007.jpg 618w, https://thetricontinental.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Xu-Deqi-China-China-Flower-2007-247x300.jpg 247w"
sizes="(max-width: 618px) 100vw, 618px"
style="max-width: 100%;width: 100%;padding-bottom: 0;display: inline;vertical-align: bottom;border: 0;height: auto;outline: none;text-decoration: none;-ms-interpolation-mode: bicubic;"
moz-do-not-send="true"
width="618" border="0">
<p
id="caption-attachment-105877" class="wp-caption-text"
style="text-align: center;margin: 10px 0;padding: 0;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%;color: #202020;font-family: Helvetica;font-size: 16px;line-height: 150%;"><small>Xu
De Qi (China), <i>China
Flower</i>, 2007.</small></p>
</div>
</div>
<p
style="margin: 10px 0;padding: 0;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%;color: #202020;font-family: Helvetica;font-size: 16px;line-height: 150%;text-align: left;">So,
where do we go from here? In
his <a
href="https://thetricontinental.us11.list-manage.com/track/click?u=6a79324d3b4acfde1e7e546c6&id=2a20ae82d4&e=d206d0a40d"
style="mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%;color: #007C89;font-weight: normal;text-decoration: underline;"
moz-do-not-send="true">article</a>
‘From De-Risking to
De-Dollarisation: The BRICS
Currency and the Future of
the International Financial
Order’, Professor Gao Bai,
who teaches at Duke
University in the United
States, concurs that there
is a pressing need to
overcome the Dollar-Wall
Street regime and that there
is no easy way forward at
this time. Local currency
use has expanded – such as
between Russia and China as
well as between Russia and
India – but such bilateral
arrangements are
insufficient. Increasingly,
as a recent <a
href="https://thetricontinental.us11.list-manage.com/track/click?u=6a79324d3b4acfde1e7e546c6&id=6382a4007f&e=d206d0a40d"
style="mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%;color: #007C89;font-weight: normal;text-decoration: underline;"
moz-do-not-send="true">report</a>
from the World Gold Council
shows, central banks around
the world have been buying
up gold for their reserves
and thereby driving up its
price (the spot price for
gold is over $2,300 per
ounce, far above the $1,200
per ounce price where it
hovered in 2015). If no
immediate currency is
available to supplant the US
dollar, Gao argues, then the
Global South countries
should establish a
‘reference value for
settlements in their local
currencies and an exchange
platform to support such
settlements. The great
demand for such a valuation
provides an opportunity for
the creation of a BRICS
currency’.</p>
<p
style="margin: 10px 0;padding: 0;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%;color: #202020;font-family: Helvetica;font-size: 16px;line-height: 150%;text-align: left;">The
new issue of <i>Wenhua
Zongheng</i> provides a
clear and thoughtful
assessment of the problems
with the Dollar-Wall Street
regime and the need for an
alternative. The wide array
of ideas that are on the
table reflect the diversity
of discussions taking place
within policy circles around
the world. We are keen to
summarise these ideas and
test their technical
feasibility and their
political viability.</p>
<div
class="single-post--content--media-block single-post--content--image"
style="text-align:center; margin:3em 0;">
<div id="attachment_105887"
class="wp-caption aligncenter"><img
aria-describedby="caption-attachment-105887" decoding="async"
loading="lazy"
class="size-full wp-image-105887 img-responsive mcRssImage"
src="https://thetricontinental.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Irene-Chou-China-Universe-is-My-Mind-2002.jpg"
alt=""
srcset="https://thetricontinental.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Irene-Chou-China-Universe-is-My-Mind-2002.jpg 950w, https://thetricontinental.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Irene-Chou-China-Universe-is-My-Mind-2002-300x300.jpg 300w, https://thetricontinental.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Irene-Chou-China-Universe-is-My-Mind-2002-150x150.jpg 150w, https://thetricontinental.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Irene-Chou-China-Universe-is-My-Mind-2002-768x765.jpg 768w"
sizes="(max-width: 950px) 100vw, 950px"
style="max-width: 100%;width: 100%;padding-bottom: 0;display: inline;vertical-align: bottom;border: 0;height: auto;outline: none;text-decoration: none;-ms-interpolation-mode: bicubic;"
moz-do-not-send="true"
width="950" border="0">
<p
id="caption-attachment-105887" class="wp-caption-text"
style="text-align: center;margin: 10px 0;padding: 0;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%;color: #202020;font-family: Helvetica;font-size: 16px;line-height: 150%;"><small>Irene
Chou (China), <i>The
Universe Is My Mind</i>,
2002.</small></p>
</div>
</div>
<p
style="margin: 10px 0;padding: 0;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%;color: #202020;font-family: Helvetica;font-size: 16px;line-height: 150%;text-align: left;">It
is important to note that
two of the BRICS countries
have <a
href="https://thetricontinental.us11.list-manage.com/track/click?u=6a79324d3b4acfde1e7e546c6&id=929834e62a&e=d206d0a40d"
style="mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%;color: #007C89;font-weight: normal;text-decoration: underline;"
moz-do-not-send="true">elected</a>
new governments this year.
In India, the far-right
government led by Prime
Minister Narendra Modi
returns to power, but with a
much-reduced mandate. Given
that the Modi government has
put forward a policy of
‘national interest’, it is
likely that it will continue
to play a role in the BRICS
process and to use local
currencies to buy goods such
as Russian oil. Meanwhile,
South Africa’s ruling
alliance, led by the African
National Congress (ANC), has
formed a government with the
right-wing Democratic
Alliance, which is committed
to US imperialism and is not
keen on the BRICS agenda.
With the likely <a
href="https://thetricontinental.us11.list-manage.com/track/click?u=6a79324d3b4acfde1e7e546c6&id=5e003d8cb6&e=d206d0a40d"
style="mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%;color: #007C89;font-weight: normal;text-decoration: underline;"
moz-do-not-send="true">entry</a>
of Nigeria into the BRICS
bloc, BRICS’ centre of
gravity on the African
continent might shift
northward.</p>
<p
style="margin: 10px 0;padding: 0;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%;color: #202020;font-family: Helvetica;font-size: 16px;line-height: 150%;text-align: left;">During
the hard years of struggle
against the apartheid
government in South Africa,
ANC member Lindiwe Mabuza
(known as Sono Molefe) began
to collect poems written by
women in the ANC camps.
Guerrilla fighters,
teachers, nurses, and others
sent in poems that she
published in a volume called
<i>Malibongwe</i> (‘Be
Praised’), which referred to
the 1956 Women’s March in
Pretoria. In her
introductory essay, Mabuza
(1938–2021) wrote that in
struggle ‘there is no
romance’; there is ‘only
pounding reality’. That
phrase, ‘pounding reality’,
merits reflection today.
Nothing comes from nothing.
You have to pound reality to
make something, whether a
new political opening in
places such as India and
South Africa or a new
financial architecture
beyond the Dollar-Wall
Street regime.</p>
<p
style="margin: 10px 0;padding: 0;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%;color: #202020;font-family: Helvetica;font-size: 16px;line-height: 150%;text-align: left;">Warmly,</p>
<p
style="margin: 10px 0;padding: 0;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%;color: #202020;font-family: Helvetica;font-size: 16px;line-height: 150%;text-align: left;">Vijay</p>
</span> </td>
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Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research ·
Shadipur · New Delhi, NCT 110008 · India <br>
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