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<div class="gmail-inner-article-top"><h1 class="gmail-">As Ramadan approaches, Israel threatens war on Lebanon</h1><p class="gmail-">The
reckless US–Israeli attempt to forcibly move Hezbollah far from its
border risks driving the region into a full-on war, which neither Tel
Aviv nor Washington could hope to manage. And they're picking this fight
as the holy Muslim month of Ramadan approaches.</p><div class="gmail-another-name"><p><a href="https://thecradle.co/authors/khalil-harb" style="color:rgb(164,4,4)">Khalil Harb</a></p></div><div class="gmail-another-name" style="margin-top:16px"><p><span>FEB 19, 2024 - </span><font size="1"><a href="https://thecradle.co/articles/as-ramadan-approaches-israel-threatens-war-on-lebanon">https://thecradle.co/articles/as-ramadan-approaches-israel-threatens-war-on-lebanon</a></font></p></div></div><div class="gmail-inner-article-img"><img src="http://thecradle-main.oss-eu-central-1.aliyuncs.com/public/articles/d897792a-cf45-11ee-a0d7-00163e02c055.jpeg" alt="" width="444" height="210" style="margin-right: 0px;"><span>Photo Credit: The Cradle</span></div><div class="gmail-inner-article-content"><div class="gmail-row"><div class="gmail-col-md-8 gmail-col-sm-7"><div class="gmail-article-content"><span><p><span style="color:rgb(34,34,34)">Tel Aviv's mounting threats to destroy Beirut as it has done to Gaza, coupled with </span><a href="https://thecradle.co/articles-id/23436"><span style="color:rgb(17,85,204)">growing Israeli public support</span></a><span style="color:rgb(34,34,34)"> for aggressive military action against Lebanon, have spiked tensions on the northern battlefront in recent days. </span></p><p><span style="color:rgb(34,34,34)">Furthermore,
the precarious game at play in Washington – which has done absolutely
nothing to impede Israeli occupation forces from launching an assault on
Rafah and uprooting more than a million Palestinians from their last
refuge on the Egyptian border – is driving the war to a volatile,
dangerous brink.</span></p><p><span style="color:rgb(34,34,34)">Adding fuel
to this already incendiary mix are two critical factors. First, Israel's
targeted strikes on Lebanese civilians, exemplified by the recent
attacks in </span><a href="https://thecradle.co/articles-id/23272"><span style="color:rgb(17,85,204)">Nabatiyeh</span></a><span style="color:rgb(34,34,34)"> and Al-Sowanah, have provoked a stern response from Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah, who vowed retribution, </span><a href="https://thecradle.co/articles-id/23471"><span style="color:rgb(17,85,204)">declaring</span></a><span style="color:rgb(34,34,34)"> that "the price of civilian blood will be blood." </span></p><p><span style="color:rgb(34,34,34)">Second
is the approaching month of Ramadan, a sacred period observed by
hundreds of millions of Muslims worldwide, which adds a transnational
dimension to these developments. Fasting Muslims from Indonesia to
Morocco will grow increasingly frustrated with Washington's inaction in
preventing genocide and the displacement of over two million
Palestinians in Gaza, many of whom are on the brink of </span><a href="https://thecradle.co/articles-id/19677"><span style="color:rgb(17,85,204)">starvation</span></a><span style="color:rgb(34,34,34)">. </span></p><p><span style="color:rgb(34,34,34)"><strong>Escalations will lead to an exodus </strong></span></p><p><span style="color:rgb(34,34,34)">Despite
US assurances that it is pressuring Israel to mitigate casualties, the
relentless onslaught has resulted in an appalling </span><a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-67764664"><span style="color:rgb(17,85,204)">daily death toll</span></a><span style="color:rgb(34,34,34)"> of around 300, with nearly 29,000 lives lost, and over </span><a href="https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20231120-hamas-israeli-attacks-targeted-60-per-cent-of-residential-units-in-gaza/"><span style="color:rgb(17,85,204)">60 percent</span></a><span style="color:rgb(34,34,34)"> of homes and infrastructure decimated. </span></p><p><span style="color:rgb(34,34,34)">When
Nasrallah declared that "for every drop of blood shed in Gaza and the
entire region, the primary responsibility falls on [US President Joe]
Biden, [US Secretary of State Antony] Blinken, and [US Secretary of
Defense Lloyd] Austin," his words resonated deeply – not only within the
Islamic world but with millions globally – calling for an end to the
war by halting the influx of American weapons to the Israeli military.</span></p><p><span style="color:rgb(34,34,34)">The
US State Department has received multiple warnings from diplomats in
the region of the growing resentment toward Washington for its
complicity in Israel's genocidal campaign. Despite its tone-deaf
attempts to adjust its stance and emphasize a need to protect
Palestinian civilians, the regional backlash threatens to undermine US
diplomacy, unravel Arab normalization deals with Israel, and jeopardize </span><a href="https://thecradle.co/articles/west-asian-chains-profit-from-regional-boycott-of-western-brands"><span style="color:rgb(17,85,204)">US business interests</span></a><span style="color:rgb(34,34,34)"> throughout West Asia.</span></p><p><span style="color:rgb(34,34,34)">Speaking to <i>The Cradle</i>,
sources close to the Axis of Resistance in Lebanon said the next
fortnight carries the potential for a catastrophic escalation,
particularly if Israel intensifies its military aggression during
Ramadan and advances its plans to displace Palestinians from Rafah. </span></p><p><span style="color:rgb(34,34,34)">Additionally,
the discontent among Israeli settlers displaced by Lebanese resistance
operations along the northern border poses further risks, with officials
in Tel Aviv contemplating </span><a href="https://thecradle.co/articles-id/18019"><span style="color:rgb(17,85,204)">drastic measures</span></a><span style="color:rgb(34,34,34)"> to ensure calm, including potential military action – a preview of which southern Lebanese civilians have recently witnessed. </span></p><p><span style="color:rgb(34,34,34)">The
discontent among northern settlers grows as they grapple with the new
security dynamics in the aftermath of the Hamas-led Al-Aqsa Flood
operation on 7 October. Extending over 100 kilometers from Naqoura to
the Shebaa Farms and penetrating 5 to 10 kilometers deep, this border
strip has seen the displacement of thousands of settler families. </span></p><p><span style="color:rgb(34,34,34)"><strong>Israel wants Hezbollah purged from its border </strong></span></p><p><span style="color:rgb(34,34,34)">Despite
stern warnings from senior Israeli officials to restore "calm" along
the northern frontier – including Energy Minister Eli Cohen's </span><a href="https://twitter.com/elicoh1/status/1736380733533413549"><span style="color:rgb(17,85,204)">pledge</span></a><span style="color:rgb(34,34,34)"> that
"if this threat is not removed diplomatically, we will not hesitate to
take military action" – the situation remains fraught.</span></p><p><span style="color:rgb(34,34,34)">A poll by the Hebrew newspaper <i>Maariv</i> showed that </span><a href="https://www.naharnet.com/stories/en/303402-maariv-poll-71-of-israelis-in-favor-of-operation-against-lebanon#:~:text=Maariv%20poll%3A%2071%25%20of%20Israelis%20in%20favor%20of%20operation%20against%20Lebanon,-by%20Naharnet%20Newsdesk&text=A%20poll%20published%20by%20right,scale%20military%20operation%20against%20Lebanon."><span style="color:rgb(17,85,204)">71 percent</span></a><span style="color:rgb(34,34,34)"> of
Israelis believe Israel should launch a large-scale military operation
against Lebanon to keep Hezbollah away from the border. At the same
time, the Israeli military leadership is acutely aware of the
significance of Nasrallah's statement on 13 February, when he insisted
that the settlers fleeing from the north "will not return" and that
Israeli officials should "prepare shelters, hotels, schools and tents
for <i>two million people</i>."</span></p><p><span style="color:rgb(34,34,34)">In
two consecutive speeches, Nasrallah stressed that "only stopping the
war on Gaza will stop the Lebanon front." And he reminded Israelis that
since 1982 they would respond militarily when a mere Lebanese bullet or
Katyusha rocket would hit its areas, but now – despite </span><a href="https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2024/02/06/hezbollah-rocket-attack-wounds-two-israeli-soldiers/"><span style="color:rgb(17,85,204)">more than 2000</span></a><span style="color:rgb(34,34,34)"> rocket strikes by the resistance against critical Israeli targets – Tel Aviv has been unable to escalate to a full-scale war.</span></p><p><span style="color:rgb(34,34,34)">A Lebanese political source informs <i>The Cradle</i> of
Israel's dual strategy: while exerting military pressure through direct
raids on southern Lebanon to instill fear, the occupation state also
pins hopes on western diplomatic overtures to Beirut. Their aim? To
force the removal of Hezbollah, not just from the border, but from
regions beyond the Litani River.</span></p><p><span style="color:rgb(34,34,34)"><strong>Hezbollah won't budge from western pressure </strong></span></p><p><span style="color:rgb(34,34,34)">Nasrallah
recounted a telling anecdote from discussions with western envoys – all
singularly focused on the goal of pushing Hezbollah north of the
Litani. Faced with this onslaught of illogical demands, a Lebanese
official quipped, "It's easier to relocate the river to the border than
to push Hezbollah north of it." </span></p><p><span style="color:rgb(34,34,34)">In short, even pro-west Lebanese officials understand the impossibility of this ambition.</span></p><p><span style="color:rgb(34,34,34)">The
recent statement by US chief energy diplomat Amos Hochstein merely
confirms what Hezbollah already knows: Washington's aim is </span><a href="https://en.royanews.tv/news/49376/2024-02-17"><span style="color:rgb(17,85,204)">not to end the conflict but to manage it</span></a><span style="color:rgb(34,34,34)">.
Western engagements with Beirut, according to the political source,
amount to little more than message transmission, primarily conveying
Israel's demands and threats rather than facilitating genuine mediation.
This lack of earnestness in addressing the gravity of the situation in
southern Lebanon has not gone unnoticed.</span></p><p><span style="color:rgb(34,34,34)">Even Prime Minister Najib Mikati, known for his calm demeanor, expressed frustration with this superficial approach, </span><a href="https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/lebanese-prime-minister-says-calm-in-lebanon-requires-cease-fire-in-gaza/3107465"><span style="color:rgb(17,85,204)">stating</span></a><span style="color:rgb(34,34,34)"> on 12 January: </span></p><blockquote><p><span style="color:rgb(34,34,34)">We
informed all the international delegates who visited Lebanon that
talking about a truce in Lebanon only is illogical … a ceasefire be
reached as soon as possible in Gaza, in parallel with a serious
ceasefire in Lebanon.</span></p></blockquote><p><span style="color:rgb(34,34,34)">In
this context, another political source reveals the contents of a
document presented by France to Lebanese officials, proposing a
ceasefire on the border and the formation of a monitoring committee
comprising US and French representatives alongside Lebanese and Israeli
delegates. </span></p><p><span style="color:rgb(34,34,34)">However, it also
outlines a three-stage process: ceasefire, withdrawal of resistance
fighters and their military assets 10 kilometers north of the border,
and subsequent negotiations aimed at establishing a resistance-free
buffer zone.</span></p><p><span style="color:rgb(34,34,34)"><strong>The US and Israel face a critical choice</strong></span></p><p><span style="color:rgb(34,34,34)">Nasrallah
takes such proposals with a pinch of salt, emphasizing instead that any
negotiations must center on the core principle of liberating Lebanese
territory currently occupied by Israel. Hezbollah's response to such
diplomatic overtures is to be expected. Why would it concede anything
when it is causing its enemy unprecedented pain and is, for the first
time ever, coordinating its military efforts with multiple resistance
battlefronts in West Asia, including Gaza, Lebanon, Yemen, Syria, and
Iraq?</span></p><p><span style="color:rgb(34,34,34)">Sources close to the resistance say </span><a href="https://www.arabnews.com/node/2460361/amp"><span style="color:rgb(17,85,204)">recent remarks</span></a><span style="color:rgb(34,34,34)"> by
Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant that his forces had deliberately
bombed Beirut have made Nasrallah conclude that Tel Aviv's recent
targeting of civilians in Nabatiyeh, Sowanah, and Adshit "was deliberate
and not a mistake." Moreover, it is an Israeli attempt to violate the
rules of engagement in place since 1992, which if not upheld, can change
the military game considerably for Israel – to its detriment, as well
as Lebanon's. For starters, the Hezbollah leader has promised a strong
response on the frontlines, targeting the enemy directly rather than
"targeting sites, spy devices, and vehicles." </span></p><p><span style="color:rgb(34,34,34)">Informed sources who spoke to <i>The Cradle</i> say
that the US and Israel will be forced to make some critical choices in
the next two weeks, not only as the month of Ramadan approaches, but
also because Tel Aviv has now crossed the line of military
"proportionality" by targeting Lebanese civilians and inviting
escalation. </span></p><p><span style="color:rgb(34,34,34)">Their most
perilous move may be for Israel to launch a war on Lebanon – and
Hezbollah specifically – which will prompt the Axis of Resistance to
recalibrate its region-wide strategies. </span></p><p><span style="color:rgb(34,34,34)">This
recalibration could manifest through several avenues: intensification
and resilience of the Lebanese resistance, breaking the </span><a href="https://thecradle.co/articles-id/21328"><span style="color:rgb(17,85,204)">fragile truce</span></a><span style="color:rgb(34,34,34)"> by
Kataib Hezbollah and its Iraqi resistance allies to strike broader US
targets, Syria assuming a more prominent role, adjustments in the
direction and potency of </span><a href="https://thecradle.co/articles-id/17195"><span style="color:rgb(17,85,204)">Yemeni missile attacks and drone operations</span></a><span style="color:rgb(34,34,34)"> (beyond
the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden), and shifts in Iran's power centers
toward favoring confrontation – which would be a major deviation from
its regional approach over the past four months. </span></p><p><span style="color:rgb(34,34,34)">Such shifts could occur if the gaze of Netanyahu and Biden shifts firmly towards the north.</span></p></span></div></div></div></div>
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