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<div class="gmail-inner-article-top"><h1 class="gmail-">Israel loses control of its borders</h1><p class="gmail-">In
past wars, Israel was able to establish buffer or security zones inside
enemy territory. But Tel Aviv's adversaries have flipped the map today,
forcing the occupation state to evacuate its own borders — perhaps
permanently.</p><div class="gmail-another-name"><p><a href="https://new.thecradle.co/authors/khalil-harb" style="color:rgb(164,4,4)">Khalil Harb</a> -<font size="1"> <a href="https://new.thecradle.co/articles/israel-loses-control-of-its-borders">https://new.thecradle.co/articles/israel-loses-control-of-its-borders</a></font></p></div><div class="gmail-another-name" style="margin-top:16px"><p><span>JAN 23, 2024</span></p></div></div><div class="gmail-inner-article-img"><img src="http://thecradle-main.oss-eu-central-1.aliyuncs.com/public/articles/67ba51e6-ba0f-11ee-961e-00163e02c055.jpeg" alt="" width="391" height="185" style="margin-right: 0px;"><span>Photo Credit: The Cradle</span></div><div class="gmail-inner-article-content"><div class="gmail-row"><div class="gmail-col-md-8 gmail-col-sm-7"><div class="gmail-article-content"><span><p>Israel
once reigned supreme on the back of some immovable narratives: widely
spun myths of a "promised land," a "land without a people," the "only
democracy in the Middle East," and the “only secure place for Jews in
the world.” Today, those lofty soundbites lie in tatters, with the
occupation state reeling from an unprecedented blow to its foundational
ideas. </p><p>This transformation has unfolded with unexpected intensity
since the 7 October Al-Aqsa Flood resistance operation and Israel's
devastating, genocidal war on Gaza.</p><p>But it is not just the
challenge of narratives that has Israel on its back feet. For the first
time in its 76-year history, Israel's entire security calculations have
been turned upside down: the occupation state is today grappling with <a href="https://new.thecradle.co/articles-id/14298">buffer zones</a> <i>inside Israel</i>.
In past wars, it was Tel Aviv that established these “security zones”
inside enemy territory — advancing Israel's strategic geography,
evacuating Arab populations near their state border areas, and
fortifying its own borders. </p><p>This shift can be attributed to
various factors, including vulnerabilities within the so-called "Arab
Ring States" (Egypt, Jordan, Syria, and Lebanon). Throughout its
history, Israel has consistently exerted military and political
dominance, enforcing security measures on neighboring states, with the
unconditional backing of allies like the US and Britain. </p><p><strong>Israel’s new border realities </strong></p><p>But
in this current war, Tel Aviv is slowly understanding that the
equations and calculations of military confrontation have fundamentally
changed — a process that began in 2000 when the Lebanese resistance,
Hezbollah, <a href="https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20220527-its-worth-remembering-that-it-was-hezbollah-that-liberated-south-lebanon-from-israels-occupation-through-armed-struggle/">forced Israel to withdraw</a> from most occupied territories in southern Lebanon.</p><p>Today, Israel is horrified to find itself <i>retreating</i>
from direct confrontation lines with its arch-enemies in Gaza and
Lebanon. The formidable capabilities of the resistance now include
drones, rockets, targeted projectiles, tunnels, and spanking new shock
tactics, casting doubt on the feasibility of Israeli settlers remaining
safe in any of Israel's border perimeters.</p><p>There is now one common
refrain among settlers in the north and south of occupied Palestine:
“We will not return unless security is restored on the border.”</p><p>But
prospects for their return appear elusive at present. The Israeli
Defense Ministry, which pledged a swift and decisive war to safeguard
its settlers over 100 days ago, is now actively devising plans to
shelter approximately <a href="https://twitter.com/RamzyBaroud/status/1749504232221499442">100,000 people</a>
along the northern border, deeper inside its territory. This measure
could involve evacuating settlements that may come under fire during any
future military escalation with Hezbollah in Lebanon.</p><p>This
situation implies three critical outcomes: any immediate return of
settlers remains unlikely, additional evacuations are anticipated, and
numerous Israeli families - in the interim - may establish permanent
settlements in other, more secure locations at a much further distance
from the borders with southern Lebanon and the Gaza envelope. </p><p><strong>Failed objectives and the northern front </strong></p><p>Preliminary
reports from settler councils in the north assessed settler
“displacement” to be around 70,000 in the initial weeks of the conflict.
Subsequent reports, however, suggest a vastly higher figure of
approximately <a href="https://english.almanar.com.lb/2013101">230,000</a>.</p><p>Against this backdrop, Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah emphasized a crucial point in his <a href="https://new.thecradle.co/articles-id/17609">3 January</a>
speech. He referenced Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant's concern
that Israelis are not only reluctant to reside in the border regions,
but that their apprehension about remaining in any part of Israel will
also likely rise if Tel Aviv's war fails to achieve its stated
objectives.</p><p>Indeed, since 7 October, a significant toll has been
exacted on Israeli forces, with 13,572 "soldiers and civilians" wounded
in the battles in Gaza and along the northern border with Lebanon, as
reported by <a href="https://www.ynetnews.com/health_science/article/b1yqxoskt"><i>Yedioth Ahronoth</i></a>. </p><p>One
suspects those numbers may be underreported. Skepticism has recently
grown over the accuracy of the Israeli Ministry of Health's data, with
various experts, independent sources, and media investigations
suggesting a <a href="https://new.thecradle.co/articles-id/15978">considerably higher casualty count</a>. The IDF Handicapped Organization, for example, estimates that approximately <a href="https://indepthnews.net/the-west-morally-bankrupt-and-complicit-in-ethnic-cleansing-part-2/">20,000</a> individuals have been disabled in the ongoing war — a number much higher than the health ministry's findings.</p><p>The
secrecy surrounding Israeli casualties is particularly evident on the
Lebanese war front, where data is virtually nonexistent, and Tel Aviv's
military censorship tightly controls all information flows. This leads
to a critical question regarding Israel's ability to establish strategic
"border" equations as a compensatory measure for what appears to be a
military and political setback in achieving its stated war goals — which
include the elimination of Hamas and the release of all captives.</p><p>Moreover,
doubts arise about Israel's capacity to wage a major war in the north
given its clear shortcomings in its southern military campaign, in which
it faced heavily besieged adversaries with multiple vulnerabilities.
The Lebanese resistance, in comparison to its Gazan counterparts, boasts
considerable and many unknown military capabilities, which it can
exercise from within a sovereign state that is neither besieged nor
landlocked. Furthermore, Hezbollah, which singlehandedly routed Israel
from its territories in both 2000 and 2006 — makes it plain that it has
thus far revealed and utilized <a href="https://english.aawsat.com/arab-world/4675581-hezbollah-deploys-attack-drones-%E2%80%98burkan%E2%80%99-missiles-fight-israel">only a fraction</a> of its new military capabilities. </p><p><strong>Decolonization in progress </strong></p><p>In November, Hezbollah's introduction of the <a href="https://twitter.com/richimedhurst/status/1720812018666504445">Burkan missile</a>,
a domestically-made weapon with a range of up to 10 kilometers and
destructive power of 500 kilograms of explosives, adds a potent
dimension to the confrontation.</p><p>While Hezbollah has primarily
targeted Israeli military barracks and troop gatherings with the Burkan,
hundreds of guided missiles such as Kornet and Katyusha rockets have
been employed with precision against specific targets within empty
residential settlements, extending up to 10 kilometers in geographic
depth from Lebanon's border. </p><img src="http://thecradle-main.oss-eu-central-1.aliyuncs.com/public/articles_media/0bea13b6-ba0e-11ee-a5f4-00163e02c055.png" width="296" height="391" style="margin-right: 0px;"><span class="gmail-text-tiny" style="color:rgb(153,153,153)">Map of Israeli evacuation zones on the borders with Gaza and Lebanon</span><p>As of the onset of 2024, Hezbollah has conducted over <a href="https://www.zawya.com/en/world/middle-east/hezbollah-conducted-around-670-military-operations-on-lebanese-israeli-border-since-oct-8-chief-says-wjfkb6qc">670 military operations</a>
against all 48 Israeli outposts, spanning from Naqoura in the west to
the occupied-Shebaa Farms in the east, along with 11 rear military
positions.</p><p>This is a major advancement in the Lebanese
resistance's border strategy. For 15 years — from 1985 to 2000 — Israel
struggled to defend its "border strip" in southern Lebanon. Today, it
faces many hundreds of attacks on its positions in northern Palestine,
but fears opening a second war front that could complicate its already
militarily draining Gaza campaign. </p><p>The so-called "defense" line
along the border with Lebanon is now heavily compromised. Deemed
insufficient for safeguarding the hundreds of thousands of Israeli
settlers in the north, the recently displaced residents are demanding
assurances about the future safety of that zone and their ability to
return.</p><p>In December, the head of the Upper Galilee Regional
Council revealed that the Israeli government had effectively created a
buffer zone approximately 10 kilometers wide by <a href="https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/evacuated-israeli-settlers-refuse-to-return-to-north-or-sout">evacuating towns</a>
in the north. This area, stretching from Mount Hermon in occupied Syria
to Ras al-Naqoura, is reported to be nearly devoid of residents, with
Israeli forces predominantly present.</p><p>At the so-called Kibbutz
Manara border, a settler told Hebrew Radio North that 86 of the
settlement's 155 homes had been completely destroyed by Hezbollah rocket
fire, raising the question of whether settlers would even have homes to
return to.</p><p>Even if Israel dares to launch a full-scale aggression
against Lebanon, just as it has faltered in besieged Gaza for 17 years,
it will not be able to guarantee its success in achieving its
objectives on the Lebanese front.</p><p><strong>A land of false promises </strong></p><p>The
days when Israel could impose security arrangements on its Arab
neighbors through military force and political machinations are gone.</p><p>Previously, Israel attempted to establish a security strip inside southern Lebanon through operations like the 1978 "<a href="https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20220613-remembering-the-israeli-withdrawal-from-south-lebanon/">Litani Operation</a>." This vision ultimately collapsed in 2000, with the occupation state's humiliating withdrawal from Lebanon. </p><p>Israel
now seems to be revisiting this approach — via American intermediaries —
aiming to clear the southern Litani of resistance factions by
brandishing the threat of war against all of Lebanon. This is a perilous
strategy, particularly given the precarious position of its army in
Gaza.</p><p>Israel's tactics of bulldozing and bombing entire
residential areas in the northern and eastern parts of the Gaza Strip,
ostensibly to create a security strip with a depth of up to 2
kilometers, have hit a hard wall. Even its US ally has raised <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/11/7/us-says-doesnt-support-israeli-occupation-of-gaza-after-war">objections</a>
about the territorial delineation from Gaza, and the military efficacy
of such measures. But more importantly, the Lebanese and Palestinian
resistance appear prepped to mirror Tel Aviv's ploys by eliminating
Israeli habitation in the Gaza envelope and northern Palestine.</p><p>‘Destroy
our neighborhoods, and we will destroy yours.’ This is surely not a
response expected by Israel, whose military and political leadership are
unaccustomed to repercussions for their aggressions. This new
tit-for-tat that the occupation state appears unequipped to counter only
further highlights Israel's fragility and irreversible decline. </p></span></div></div></div></div>
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